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Author Topic: Would BTC shake off an ICO shite implosion?  (Read 182 times)
gentlemand
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May 31, 2018, 01:05:26 PM
Merited by Samarkand (1)
 #1

I was perusing an article the other where the little fella specifically named ICOs as the doomed dotcom bubble and specifically left Bitcoin out of it. This is a fairly rare occurrence as usually it's lumped in with all the junk.

What are your views on this? Could all of the shit out there implode and die and Bitcoin carry on relatively unscathed or would it take a heavy hit too? I don't really see how it could just shake it off as I'm sure a large amount of the BTC buying was to pile in to that space.

Are they separate enough markets these days?

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May 31, 2018, 06:10:47 PM
Merited by Samarkand (1)
 #2

I always believed that ICO's were the absolute trash of this ecosystem. I honestly haven't seen any altcoin actually impress me with their flashy features and gimmicks no one even cares about. I have never been that keen on people comparing crypto to the dot-com-bubble, but where I do agree with that comparison, is when it concerns all these ICO's representing nothing more than empty ideas and companies we might not even hear about anymore in the coming few years. I must however point out that regardless of how I dislike all these ICO's, they contribute to Bitcoin's demand. In most cases you enter these ICO's with Ethereum or Bitcoin, and with how hyped up the ICO market is right now, it helps keeping coins out of direct circulation
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May 31, 2018, 06:18:24 PM
 #3

I have never been that keen on people comparing crypto to the dot-com-bubble,

I think it's valid myself.

Dotcom bubble - new tech, no one knows what the hell to do it, hey, let's create some shit and pump. Death. Resurrection when people do figure what it's good for.

That's the same trajectory that crypto will follow in terms of the utility coins at least. I don't believe any of them will get anywhere long term. They're all solutions scratching around for a problem and they're all clunky as fuck.

Bitcoin and its brethren focus on one simple job and try to do it well which may insulate them from an absolute cratering.

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May 31, 2018, 06:46:56 PM
 #4

I d say it depends how much the SEC will power off the ICOs from the market, since all are securities, even ETH is.

Signs for that are already seen at the horizon.

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May 31, 2018, 08:33:15 PM
 #5

I d say it depends how much the SEC will power off the ICOs from the market, since all are securities, even ETH is.

Signs for that are already seen at the horizon.

The SEC won't really have to power off anything because the ICO hype will power off itself eventually. The SEC is just one entity representing the US, which is quite a large market indeed, but there is more than just that market. All the Ether fan boys however think that because of its current POW nature it won't be classified as a security, so we have to wait and see how merciful the SEC is in that regard. I have nothing against Ethereum so it won't change much for me, but I wonder what effect it will have on Bitcoin with potentially lower demand for Ethereum. Altcoins do help keeping a lot Bitcoins out of direct circulation, and Ethereum's position might be somewhat significant in this case.
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May 31, 2018, 09:36:59 PM
 #6

Bitcoin will definitely recover after an initial blow. Instead of capital flowing into rubbish ICOs, it will largely flow into Bitcoin directly, which is where it belongs. 

I must admit that Ethereum did extremely well serving as a platform on which these ICOs thrive, but I can't see it continue endlessly. At some point people wake up and realize how much of an empty put this industry is.

The market will also become more professional in the coming years, and professional parties always prefer a foundation they can build trust on, and only Bitcoin is capable of providing that.

I kinda feel sorry for those putting too much faith in altcoins, because they really can't beat Bitcoin's simplicity that with lightning network will render altcoins even more obsolete. Quality over quantity, always.

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May 31, 2018, 09:47:36 PM
 #7

Could all of the shit out there implode and die and Bitcoin carry on relatively unscathed or would it take a heavy hit too? I don't really see how it could just shake it off as I'm sure a large amount of the BTC buying was to pile in to that space.
It would definitely take a hit too but I think it won't be that heavy. In the long term though, I think it would affect the demand for bitcoin if ever those ICO shits implode and die but bitcoin's price might become more stable than it is now when those ICO coins are gone for good. By then, speculation might subside a bit(because those ICO's are part of the reason why bitcoin is being a speculative tool nowadays) helping market to become healthier.
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May 31, 2018, 10:53:30 PM
 #8

I was perusing an article the other where the little fella specifically named ICOs as the doomed dotcom bubble and specifically left Bitcoin out of it. This is a fairly rare occurrence as usually it's lumped in with all the junk.

What are your views on this? Could all of the shit out there implode and die and Bitcoin carry on relatively unscathed or would it take a heavy hit too? I don't really see how it could just shake it off as I'm sure a large amount of the BTC buying was to pile in to that space.

Are they separate enough markets these days?

i think an ICO implosion spells blood bath for BTC as well.

most people note that the crypto markets are broadly correlated, but few discuss the macro effects of altcoin markets on the BTC supply side. since most altcoins (and nearly all ICO tokens) trade predominantly against BTC, this creates latent demand for BTC: anyone who wants to buy these tokens generally needs to buy BTC first. as long as every BTC bought on the altcoin markets isn't dumped immediately back to fiat, this is a net drain on BTC supply and therefore a boon for the price.

here's the flip side of that: let's say the ICO market becomes a stampede headed for the exits, with everyone dumping for BTC. at least some of that BTC is going to get dumped on the BTC-fiat markets. that's a net drain on the price.

the markets should be correlated in both directions.

It would definitely take a hit too but I think it won't be that heavy.

yeah, altcoins/tokens rise harder and fall harder than BTC. more volatile in both directions.

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May 31, 2018, 11:24:43 PM
 #9

Up until now, I can't grasp the fact that a lot of people still see bitcoin and ICOs as the same entities when in fact, ICOs only use the shadow of bitcoin's success to advertise their (scammy) offerings to the public. If in case the crackdown for ICOs continues, I doubt bitcoin will be affected too much. It might get involved in a day or two since both belongs to the crypto market, but afterwards it would recover and simply shake everything off as what bitcoin used to do with these sort of things.

Many ICOs try to replicate successful ones and end up being scammy if expectations weren't met. ICOs would be put to end soon. Other cryptos might be affected but it will only be for a short while.

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May 31, 2018, 11:52:10 PM
 #10

Many ICOs try to replicate successful ones and end up being scammy if expectations weren't met. ICOs would be put to end soon. Other cryptos might be affected but it will only be for a short while.

there may be lots of scam ICOs, but i wouldn't paint every one with that brush.

i also don't think they're going away---at all. people seem to think there's going to be some new regulations that outlaw ICOs or something. on the contrary, ICOs will just be brought into the regulatory fold, at least in the major nations. just like with cryptocurrencies, governments can't stop these p2p transactions. they will adapt and conform to new standards.

don't use the scam ICOs to hide the fact that ICOs break down important financial barriers. they make retail securities investment far more accessible to people---even in poor and less developed countries. lots of VC capital seems to recognize the importance of this. yet lots of bitcoiners seem to think everything besides BTC is just going to disappear one day. fat chance, methinks!

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June 01, 2018, 04:16:31 AM
Merited by gentlemand (2)
 #11

A lot might depend on timing.

Small time retail investors on unregulated exchanges dominate market liquidity at the moment, many of whom are late-comers distracted by the cloud of shitcoins gathered around honey-badger's napping bunghole.


hippo honey: how ICOs are born

But smart money is on the verge of moving in, from wall street to institutional, not to mention the hundreds of hedge funds and other OTC whales already hemming and hawing in cryptospace.

Once regulated exchanges start offering better BTC custody solutions for these big boys, paving the way for ETFs and the like, retail investors (along with the slew of unregulated exchanges) might start to become irrelevant, much like they already are with the stock markets.

If the SEC and other global regulators start spraying ICOcide before smart money moves in, BTC could be at real risk, even halting or at least delaying progress in the smart money space.

But if smart money moves into BTC sooner, as expected by the end of this year and into next, before the SEC is able to take much action against ICOs and their ilk, BTC might already be immune by that point.

A lot might also depend on the timing of layer 2/layer 3 protocols; the lightning network and rootstock smart contracts and all that, incorporating a lot of the functionality shitcoins currently tout as BTC side chains/protocols.

This is all assuming smart money really is smart enough to recognize BTC as the one true coin. Which I think, for the most part, they are. These are the same guys who've been setting up BTC futures and pushing for ETFs all along. There's not a single shitcoin anywhere near attaining a futures market so far as I know. Best the shitcoins can hope for is being included in an overall crypto index fund, like Coinbase is offering.

ps. check out this mesmerizing but also sickening animated crypto market evolution, too large to post in its entirety here...


https://t.me/CryptoAquariumChannel/1585
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June 01, 2018, 04:47:38 AM
 #12

the markets are connected to each other and affect each other too. and it works somewhat both ways. when shitcoins are getting pumped 1000% at a time, people see this and want to become rich (in their dreams LOL) so they want to jump in. for many of them including ICOs they would need to buy bitcoin first then invest that in these craps. then when they implode and the dumping comes they run away fast too and that means exiting the same way they came in which means more sells of bitcoin.

so we can't say bitcoin is going to come out without a "scratch". the real question is "HOW MUCH SCRATCH".

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June 01, 2018, 11:04:51 AM
 #13

yet lots of bitcoiners seem to think everything besides BTC is just going to disappear one day. fat chance, methinks!

Bitcoiners are the Warren Buffetts and Charlie Mungers of the crypto industry. People blame these oldies for talking trash about Bitcoin, but we as Bitcoiners tend to do exactly the same when it comes to altcoins and tokens. I personally have been doing that as well, but we should all acknowledge that there is indeed more than Bitcoin, and we won't be getting rid of them.

I strongly believe that once the filtering of coins has somewhat completed, that we'll be left with a small bucket of coins and tokens actually serving a purpose other than speculation. I also strongly believe that we need altcoins to balance things out. If we talk about mass adoption, then Bitcoin just isn't enough to serve people in that regard. Bitcoin can take care of the basic aspects, where altcoins can clutter their blockchains with smart contracts and all things basic users don't care about.

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June 01, 2018, 11:59:17 AM
 #14

I was perusing an article the other where the little fella specifically named ICOs as the doomed dotcom bubble and specifically left Bitcoin out of it. This is a fairly rare occurrence as usually it's lumped in with all the junk.

What are your views on this? Could all of the shit out there implode and die and Bitcoin carry on relatively unscathed or would it take a heavy hit too? I don't really see how it could just shake it off as I'm sure a large amount of the BTC buying was to pile in to that space.

Are they separate enough markets these days?

ICOs are just a mess IMO to the price of all crypto, mainly BTC and ETH. I think ICOs in general need refinement, as in there is just too much of them. This craze has somewhat messed the prices up.

ICOs need more regulation, so I wouldn't be surprised if they become illegal in some countries.

However, the price of BTC depends on a lot of factors, not just ICOs or whatever it may be. There was too much of a craze in 2017 that some are just tired now in 2018.
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June 01, 2018, 12:20:43 PM
 #15

as long as money is involved and as long as it is easy to make it using the alternative market there is always going to be a lot of shitstrom where a bunch of greedy people pour their money into just to lose it to a bunch of other people who see the gullibility level and want to abuse it.
so if the ICO shit implosion ends there will be another shit implosion in the altcoin market right after that and with a different method and different name but basically the same principals.

and bitcoin will remain under the pressure that this side-market puts on bitcoin until it becomes too big that the space between bitcoin and the whole altcoin market becomes too huge to have any effect on it.

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June 01, 2018, 01:12:09 PM
 #16

Great thread @gentlemand !

...
ICOs need more regulation, so I wouldn't be surprised if they become illegal in some countries.
...

They are already illegal in some countries.
However, I wonder if ICOs would still have the same appeal to gullible newbies when
they would be more regulated. One of the reasons that ICOs did so well in 2017 was the fact
that everyone could easily jump on board by buying a few BTC or ETH at Coinbase.
In the beginning most ICOs didn´t even require KYC or whitelisting and didn´t exclude people
from heavily populated countries like the US.

If ICOs become too regulated, it will become difficult to invest for most people, which will once again
favor venture capitalists, who have no problem with KYC or high minimum investments.





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June 01, 2018, 02:04:28 PM
 #17

the markets are connected to each other and affect each other too. and it works somewhat both ways. when shitcoins are getting pumped 1000% at a time, people see this and want to become rich (in their dreams LOL) so they want to jump in. for many of them including ICOs they would need to buy bitcoin first then invest that in these craps. then when they implode and the dumping comes they run away fast too and that means exiting the same way they came in which means more sells of bitcoin.

so we can't say bitcoin is going to come out without a "scratch". the real question is "HOW MUCH SCRATCH".

If they are 'exiting' that way, it means buying bitcoins for altcoins and then selling those bitcoins for cash. While I agree that the overall market sentiment will be negative, I would only think that Bitcoin dominance would increase. This would be a flight to safety in the crypto world and this would actually be good for Biitcoin in the long run.


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June 01, 2018, 02:12:38 PM
 #18

It might have a link to the great depression that we encountered but I think that it's more a consequence than a pure reason. Sure the ICO aren't doing any good to btc as most of them (not all of course, some are legitimate) are nothing more than big fat scams. But there have been scams in btc since the begining. The difference here is that tons of people were taken in the fucking btc hype exactly like the first big jump to 15k and the same people saw the price going down a bit (maybe linked to the ICOs) and completely panicked.

Now serious buyers have to come by and are slowly eating back what the panick noobs left behind. It gonna take some time but we'll see a slow and steady rise of the price I'm pretty sure of it.

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June 01, 2018, 02:53:10 PM
 #19

I was perusing an article the other where the little fella specifically named ICOs as the doomed dotcom bubble and specifically left Bitcoin out of it. This is a fairly rare occurrence as usually it's lumped in with all the junk.

What are your views on this? Could all of the shit out there implode and die and Bitcoin carry on relatively unscathed or would it take a heavy hit too? I don't really see how it could just shake it off as I'm sure a large amount of the BTC buying was to pile in to that space.

Are they separate enough markets these days?

I must appreciate this line of thought that this is taking a look at things in a different way and I would kind of agree that bitcoin would survive but not unscathed because without being over bloating it, ICOs also play some roles in the increasing the awareness of bitcoin to the outside population because since the various regulations of ICOs, the restriction on the advertisement that can be carried out, there has been a dip to in the activities of bitcoin too. The reason is not far fetched when these ICOs do their advertisement, you dont buy with fiat but you have to buy with BTC which indirectly means advertising bitcoin.

The reason why I think bitcoin will survive is that its was not an ICO in itself or set up for the provision of finance of a project in addition to the ground foundation that makes bitcoin to be sought after to keep funds and trade for other type of coins.
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June 01, 2018, 03:32:28 PM
 #20

I was perusing an article the other where the little fella specifically named ICOs as the doomed dotcom bubble and specifically left Bitcoin out of it. This is a fairly rare occurrence as usually it's lumped in with all the junk.

What are your views on this? Could all of the shit out there implode and die and Bitcoin carry on relatively unscathed or would it take a heavy hit too? I don't really see how it could just shake it off as I'm sure a large amount of the BTC buying was to pile in to that space.

Are they separate enough markets these days?

It would absolutely get hit by ico exploding. Most of the money is extracted through bitcoin, when the time to cash out comes...
It would however recover in full, not suffer long term consequences, it has nothing to do with icos at all
It is mine opinion

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