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cbeast
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Let's talk governance, lipstick, and pigs.


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September 14, 2011, 11:31:38 AM
 #1

With all the news about malware and hackers targetting bitcoin users and with all the opinions of pundits trashing what they don't understand,  prepare for the awakening when they finally do 'get it.' Hackers will go legit and create mining pools, and pundits will go quiet while stashing away bitcoin. Devs will have amazing new tools ready and bitcoin users will become the new venture capitalists that drive an egalitarian economy. Meanwhile, the miners continue to mine and the network continues to grow. I'll just keep accumulating and redistributing bitcoins. Wait for it... wait for it.

Any significantly advanced cryptocurrency is indistinguishable from Ponzi Tulips.
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September 14, 2011, 02:03:02 PM
 #2

With all the news about malware and hackers targetting bitcoin users and with all the opinions of pundits trashing what they don't understand,  prepare for the awakening when they finally do 'get it.' Hackers will go legit and create mining pools, and pundits will go quiet while stashing away bitcoin. Devs will have amazing new tools ready and bitcoin users will become the new venture capitalists that drive an egalitarian economy. Meanwhile, the miners continue to mine and the network continues to grow. I'll just keep accumulating and redistributing bitcoins. Wait for it... wait for it.
+1

This is a view from an optimist. I like it. Smiley

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grod
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September 14, 2011, 02:10:46 PM
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May I suggest an alternate outcome?

Miners keep mining at the current rate.  They keep selling at a current rate.  Prices keep dropping at current rate until difficulty starts to drop, and we get the exact inverse of the spiral up.

Deepbit supports this as a possibility, current hash rate is 5000 gigahash -- less than 10% off all time highs.  80% of the hashing power has been added since June, so most of the current bitcoin miners are "late adopters."  Late adopters have little vested interest in hoarding bitcoins and making early adopters rich, so a good portion of them sell what they mine.   MtGox had 500,000 coins back during the first hack, 700k coins were moved around the latest fear of hacks.  It's reasonable to believe another 200k coins have made their way to the market in the last 6 weeks.

200/500 = 40% more float.  Definitely more supply.

Now, on the demand side we've seen silkroad becoming much more low key, google trends shrinking, media attention waning and a general decrease in the number of potential new suckers.  At the same time we've got prices on a steady, recognizable and undeniable downtrend.

At the moment it'd take ONE MILLION NEW DOLLARS a month to keep prices at $5 if nothing else happened and miners sold what they made to pay for hardware and power.  I'll let that sink in a bit.  ONE MILLION NEW DOLLARS.  Luckily, many miners are content to be bagholders for now, and it takes far less than that to keep prices stable.  However, those coins are mined, available, and still a bit of a liability.

TL;DR -- keep waiting.  Oh, and if you can, please deposit more money.  I'd like to get more than five bucks a coin for mine.

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September 14, 2011, 03:44:12 PM
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At the moment it'd take ONE MILLION NEW DOLLARS a month to keep prices at $5

...or....

the people holding Bitcoins simply need to realize that they are worth more than $5, and they aren't going to keep selling them for chump change... That would drive up the price...
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September 14, 2011, 03:57:31 PM
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At the moment it'd take ONE MILLION NEW DOLLARS a month to keep prices at $5

...or....

the people holding Bitcoins simply need to realize that they are worth more than $5, and they aren't going to keep selling them for chump change... That would drive up the price...

Read his post again. The late adopters are in for it for the money, FIAT money. Not for Bitcoin in the long term. The boom in May and June came to fast and Bitcoin is still in a high inflation environment. If you guys don't see all the signs you will feel it in the BTC pocket all the way down to at least 3-4 dollars, and even that level is starting to look very high. If I can make a guess, I think after all the negative that has happened lately at least 500 000 bitcoins (and their owners) wants out of Bitcoin and in to fiat (just look at the US dollar, it is getting stronger and making a new high every day), they are just waiting for the right opportunity to sell (6-10 dollars?), the opportunity isn't coming because of the high inflation environment, but I think they are getting desperate, 500 000 bitocins + 7200 bitcoins/day out on this thin market could take Bitcoin to 1-2 dollars.
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September 14, 2011, 04:22:06 PM
 #6

Another important fact is that bitcoins are not safe.

Personally, I would love to hold some of my money in bitcoins rather than in banks etc. Where the Government knows how much money I have.

Bitcoin price is way to volatile
It continues to lose value
Bitcions are too easily hacked.  Will my bitcoins be stolen when I turn on my computer tomorrow morning.
Mt. Gox. is rather unsafe, I pulled my money out of there recently in fear.



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September 14, 2011, 04:34:04 PM
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May I suggest an alternate outcome?

Miners keep mining at the current rate.  They keep selling at a current rate.  Prices keep dropping at current rate until difficulty starts to drop, and we get the exact inverse of the spiral up.

Deepbit supports this as a possibility, current hash rate is 5000 gigahash -- less than 10% off all time highs.  80% of the hashing power has been added since June, so most of the current bitcoin miners are "late adopters."  Late adopters have little vested interest in hoarding bitcoins and making early adopters rich, so a good portion of them sell what they mine.   MtGox had 500,000 coins back during the first hack, 700k coins were moved around the latest fear of hacks.  It's reasonable to believe another 200k coins have made their way to the market in the last 6 weeks.

200/500 = 40% more float.  Definitely more supply.

Now, on the demand side we've seen silkroad becoming much more low key, google trends shrinking, media attention waning and a general decrease in the number of potential new suckers.  At the same time we've got prices on a steady, recognizable and undeniable downtrend.

At the moment it'd take ONE MILLION NEW DOLLARS a month to keep prices at $5 if nothing else happened and miners sold what they made to pay for hardware and power.  I'll let that sink in a bit.  ONE MILLION NEW DOLLARS.  Luckily, many miners are content to be bagholders for now, and it takes far less than that to keep prices stable.  However, those coins are mined, available, and still a bit of a liability.

TL;DR -- keep waiting.  Oh, and if you can, please deposit more money.  I'd like to get more than five bucks a coin for mine.



One Million Dollars you say? http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-DJtHL3NV1o
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September 14, 2011, 04:48:56 PM
 #8

At the moment it'd take ONE MILLION NEW DOLLARS a month to keep prices at $5

...or....

the people holding Bitcoins simply need to realize that they are worth more than $5, and they aren't going to keep selling them for chump change... That would drive up the price...

Read his post again. The late adopters are in for it for the money, FIAT money. Not for Bitcoin in the long term. The boom in May and June came to fast and Bitcoin is still in a high inflation environment. If you guys don't see all the signs you will feel it in the BTC pocket all the way down to at least 3-4 dollars, and even that level is starting to look very high. If I can make a guess, I think after all the negative that has happened lately at least 500 000 bitcoins (and their owners) wants out of Bitcoin and in to fiat (just look at the US dollar, it is getting stronger and making a new high every day), they are just waiting for the right opportunity to sell (6-10 dollars?), the opportunity isn't coming because of the high inflation environment, but I think they are getting desperate, 500 000 bitocins + 7200 bitcoins/day out on this thin market could take Bitcoin to 1-2 dollars.

I wasn't under the impression that these people were still holding Bitcoins!
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September 14, 2011, 08:29:46 PM
 #9

I wasn't under the impression that these people were still holding Bitcoins!

Oh they are, they are.   You can find a quote from at least one forum member here about not selling at these levels.  Note he didn't say he stopped mining, he just said he stopped selling.

I was one of these guys, you can even find my postings at the time bitcoin was about $9-10 re: being in for double or nothing.   But as I mined more and more coins over the month I realized odds are I could get them for cheaper later and just sold.  I was right to the tune of about $5/btc.

I've also re-started mining.  Figure my 5830s are worth dick/all for gaming, might as well wring even $25/month out of them after power costs.  Happy I managed to sell 2 out of 4 before bitcoin collapsed.  Seeing as hash rates on deepbit climbing it looks like I'm not a unique and special snowflake with my conclusions.

cbeast
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September 15, 2011, 04:00:32 AM
 #10

Or maybe this drop to 5 USD is a stage while the market is uneducated about bitcoin. After all, who really knows about it besides the hipsters and a few pundits? There are not enough tools developed to allow them to be distributed virally. The next bubble will probably take bitcoin much higher and then settle again. Here's the thing, there is no central authority to either push bitcoin forward, nor shut it down. Bitcoin is doing this all on it's own.

Any significantly advanced cryptocurrency is indistinguishable from Ponzi Tulips.
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September 15, 2011, 04:46:36 AM
 #11

One Million Dollars you say? http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-DJtHL3NV1o

LMFAO!! I was thinking pretty much the same thing.
$1 million is chump change, even to some individuals these days, let alone the entire population combined.

But that's besides the point. People are SOOO fixated upon the value of bitcoin-USD conversion rate. Why the hell? If you were a true believer in the bitcoin movement, it should not matter what the exchanges are willing to pay for bitcoins. You shouldn't even be exchanging them for dirty, useless fiat currency. I wouldn't trade a sword for a stick, that's for sure.

People just need to realize that the value of bitcoin is not in it's value as an investment vehicle to realize future fiat currency profits. These people deserve to lose money, and I hope they lose lots of it. They are driving up the cost of mining the coins themselves, when this need not be the case at all, if everyone just agreed to use less power to mine. But it won't happen, because people want short-term rewards in fiat currency.

People need to start realizing what bitcoin is ACTUALLY about, and not how much fiat currency they can make from it.

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grod
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September 15, 2011, 02:43:45 PM
 #12


People need to start realizing what bitcoin is ACTUALLY about, and not how much fiat currency they can make from it.

However, fiat money can be exchanged for bitcoins.  If I time my market movements correctly I'll have MORE bitcoins rather than fewer. 

Your posting is justification for being net long bitcoins.  Mine is about trading.  The two are not related.

If I take the money I've already made selling bitcoins as I've mined them and buy on the market right now I'll wind up with about 3x as many.  Or, to put it another way, 3.6 gigahash for the price of a bit less than 1.2 (sold half my cards a few weeks ago).  Right now it looks like if I go with my current strategy I may wind up with 4x, 10x or maybe even 1000x as many. 

But keep on hoarding, that just means my bitcoins won't be splitting the remaining cash pie with as many others.

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