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Author Topic: Today (June 2nd) is the crucial day for end of downtrend  (Read 242 times)
thecodebear
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June 02, 2018, 01:43:28 PM
Merited by Makka (1)
 #1

Bitcoin is at ~$7640 right now. It's right at the resistance line of the downtrend that has been happening the past month from $9900. It could still bounce off resistance at these levels and drop down again, signaling that the drop will last a bit longer. But if the price makes another move up today that will clearly signal it has broken the month long down trend and we should possibly $8500 by mid-June.

Longer term, a wedge has been forming the past several months, that wedge comes to a point in late July. Right now we just came off the bottom of this wedge right around $1000. The top of it right now is around $8500. So at sometime in the next 30-45 days Bitcoin will probably break out of it decisively, if it breaks out above $8500 that should signal a move to test the $10k resistance again. As long as it does definitely break this month long downtrend today/tomorrow I think there is a good chance to see it break out of the ~4 month wedge its been oscillating in and see another run at $10k in about a month.

So tomorrow (june 3rd), if Bitcoin is at least $7700, would be a great time to buy with a sell order in the low to mid 8000s, and then wait to see if it falls off the longer term resistance line, if it breaks above $8500 at that point, then that would be another good buy with a sell in the mid-to-high 9000s.
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June 03, 2018, 05:33:24 AM
 #2

There`s no evidence that bitcoin will bounce back to 10K USD.
Your post is only about "if the btc price reaches 8,5K USD,it will go back to 10K USD".This doesn`t prove anything and it`s not what I call a good analysis.Today is June 3rd and the price is still around $7640.
Nothing important occured on June 2nd.

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June 03, 2018, 06:36:50 AM
 #3

price reached $7700 (on bitstamp) and nothing happened.

these are critical days only because we are in a wedge that we don't know which way it is going to go and when it comes to bitcoin it can go anywhere even if the chart is showing you some other possibility.
i say we need to see the $8k level before starting to get excited and talk about where it is going to go or we need to see the $7000 be broken if we are to talk about possibility of drops. otherwise get comfortable here with small ups and downs.

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thecodebear
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June 03, 2018, 07:59:23 AM
 #4

There`s no evidence that bitcoin will bounce back to 10K USD.
Your post is only about "if the btc price reaches 8,5K USD,it will go back to 10K USD".This doesn`t prove anything and it`s not what I call a good analysis.Today is June 3rd and the price is still around $7640.
Nothing important occured on June 2nd.

Maybe you're looking at a different chart haha. Exactly what I said would happen is happening. The downward trend was broken and Bitcoin is now heading upwards. It's over 7700 now. The downward resistance line from this past month was down at 7500-7600. It's broken through that and like my initial post said, it will likely head to 8500 now over the next couple weeks. At that point we'll see if it has the strength to break through the longer term resistance or if it'll stay in this wedge longer. Not sure why you call that bad analysis. Seems to be pretty dang good analysis so far.
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June 03, 2018, 08:01:37 AM
 #5

price reached $7700 (on bitstamp) and nothing happened.

The thing that happened was it reaching 7700!  It has now broken up above the month long resistance. I said if it ends the day above 7500-7600 then we know we have an outbreak and it'll head back to the top of the channel. And we got a decisive break upwards today, up to 7700s now, clearly above the resistance. It's exactly what I said.
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June 03, 2018, 08:21:43 AM
 #6

price reached $7700 (on bitstamp) and nothing happened.

The thing that happened was it reaching 7700!  It has now broken up above the month long resistance. I said if it ends the day above 7500-7600 then we know we have an outbreak and it'll head back to the top of the channel. And we got a decisive break upwards today, up to 7700s now, clearly above the resistance. It's exactly what I said.
I don't know it will increase or not but if that increases to some significant level then it can bring trust on the investors because last year also the price starts to go crazy after the first half of year so prople will think that it will happen again.

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June 03, 2018, 08:59:28 AM
 #7

we currently have a slow creep up towards $8000 (currently at $7734) and the $8k resistance is still there to prevent the big rise but if it is broken in the next 24 hours i can see the rise taking place like the past time we were here and a $1000 rise in 1 hour happened after $6900ish to $8000 this time it will be to $9000+














 

 

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June 03, 2018, 11:12:42 AM
 #8

price reached $7700 (on bitstamp) and nothing happened.

The thing that happened was it reaching 7700!  It has now broken up above the month long resistance. I said if it ends the day above 7500-7600 then we know we have an outbreak and it'll head back to the top of the channel. And we got a decisive break upwards today, up to 7700s now, clearly above the resistance. It's exactly what I said.
I don't know it will increase or not but if that increases to some significant level then it can bring trust on the investors because last year also the price starts to go crazy after the first half of year so prople will think that it will happen again.

what OP is saying (specifically in the end paragraph) mostly concerns the day traders and those who want to make a profit in a very short term from ups and downs not a longer term trader like those who are trading mostly as a hobby or a second job and certainly not the long term investors. for these waiting for a bigger sign and a bigger movement is a better idea.

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June 03, 2018, 12:21:36 PM
 #9

Bitcoin is at ~$7640 right now. It's right at the resistance line of the downtrend that has been happening the past month from $9900. It could still bounce off resistance at these levels and drop down again, signaling that the drop will last a bit longer. But if the price makes another move up today that will clearly signal it has broken the month long down trend and we should possibly $8500 by mid-June.

Longer term, a wedge has been forming the past several months, that wedge comes to a point in late July. Right now we just came off the bottom of this wedge right around $1000. The top of it right now is around $8500. So at sometime in the next 30-45 days Bitcoin will probably break out of it decisively, if it breaks out above $8500 that should signal a move to test the $10k resistance again. As long as it does definitely break this month long downtrend today/tomorrow I think there is a good chance to see it break out of the ~4 month wedge its been oscillating in and see another run at $10k in about a month.

So tomorrow (june 3rd), if Bitcoin is at least $7700, would be a great time to buy with a sell order in the low to mid 8000s, and then wait to see if it falls off the longer term resistance line, if it breaks above $8500 at that point, then that would be another good buy with a sell in the mid-to-high 9000s.

Without proper institutional money coming in, I do not see btc price breaking through the large triangle.

These few days BTC even started to look tired around $7.5K

the alt massacre and btc $6K double bottom have already exhausted a lot of bullish money. When btc touches $8.5K - $8.8K (which is approx the top of this triangle in 2 weeks' time), existing bulls have no money left to push price above that.

So most likely price will come back down and test the 6-7K area again. Testing a supporting area 3 times is very bearish and usually implies an inevitable break of the level.

Then we have some support at around 5K and a very strong support at 3K. After that will be 1.8K and 1K.

Good luck!



Not to forget, after that there is 700, 250, 99 and finally the $1 support could break. Have fun

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June 03, 2018, 01:32:42 PM
 #10

When btc touches $8.5K - $8.8K (which is approx the top of this triangle in 2 weeks' time), existing bulls have no money left to push price above that.

Are you receiving real time updates about the intentions of every single BTC buyer on the whole planet?

We got an unprecedent on our hands here, folks. I for one am seriously, seriously impressed.

And neat little call for today at least, OP.

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June 03, 2018, 01:38:32 PM
 #11

price reached $7700 (on bitstamp) and nothing happened.

these are critical days only because we are in a wedge that we don't know which way it is going to go and when it comes to bitcoin it can go anywhere even if the chart is showing you some other possibility.
i say we need to see the $8k level before starting to get excited and talk about where it is going to go or we need to see the $7000 be broken if we are to talk about possibility of drops. otherwise get comfortable here with small ups and downs.

Not nothing happened. The Bitcoin Cash is rising faster than the Bitcoin now. Maybe the Bitcoin will catch up.
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June 03, 2018, 03:21:24 PM
 #12

price reached $7700 (on bitstamp) and nothing happened.

The thing that happened was it reaching 7700!  It has now broken up above the month long resistance. I said if it ends the day above 7500-7600 then we know we have an outbreak and it'll head back to the top of the channel. And we got a decisive break upwards today, up to 7700s now, clearly above the resistance. It's exactly what I said.
I don't know it will increase or not but if that increases to some significant level then it can bring trust on the investors because last year also the price starts to go crazy after the first half of year so prople will think that it will happen again.

what OP is saying (specifically in the end paragraph) mostly concerns the day traders and those who want to make a profit in a very short term from ups and downs not a longer term trader like those who are trading mostly as a hobby or a second job and certainly not the long term investors. for these waiting for a bigger sign and a bigger movement is a better idea.


Yes true.

Obviously I'm talking about the ~2 months, as I clearly stated in my opening post.
Just going by the closing wedge that Bitcoin has been in for like 4 months now. The wedge reaches a point in late July, and we just came off the support line of it right around $7000, and by breaking decisively above 7500 yesterday Bitcoin broke the month long downtrend resistance line that was capping it for all of May. So with that broken all I'm saying is that Bitcoin will likely rise back up in the next couple of weeks to the resistance line of this 4 month wedge (which will be around $8500. At that point it'll either fall to stay in the wedge (though the wedge is closing in 8 weeks so I think a breakout is likely this month) or break out above $8500 and if it does then the next major resistance is at $10k.

So given that yesterday did indeed break the May downward resistance, we're likely to see low-to-mid 8000s in the next couple of weeks, and if it breaks decisively above 8500 in a couple weeks then a mid-to-high 8000s buy in with a mid-to-high 9000s sell target is a good bet. Otherwise if it breaks down in the mid 8000s a mid-7000s buy target is a good setup again as it would likely head back near the bottom of the wedge at that point. Just some basic TA for the next month or so given the trends of the past few months.
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June 03, 2018, 04:12:51 PM
 #13

not to worry we will soon reach $ 8k in the next few days. keep an eye on the state of the market, with circumstances like this we are easy to take advantage.

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June 03, 2018, 04:28:21 PM
 #14

Bitcoin is at ~$7640 right now. It's right at the resistance line of the downtrend that has been happening the past month from $9900. It could still bounce off resistance at these levels and drop down again, signaling that the drop will last a bit longer. But if the price makes another move up today that will clearly signal it has broken the month long down trend and we should possibly $8500 by mid-June.

TA, which you implicitly refer to here, doesn't work very well in the cryptoverse. As much as I myself want the prices to rise and shine again, like the full moon (or even like the sun lol), there is always some dude hiding behind with a big stash of bitcoins always ready to dump them on our heads when the price ever starts to recover. I suspect the proverbial G-Man (the Gox guy) has plenty of bitcoins in his pockets yet.

To summarize, prepare for unforeseen consequences.


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June 03, 2018, 04:39:06 PM
 #15

not to worry we will soon reach $ 8k in the next few days. keep an eye on the state of the market, with circumstances like this we are easy to take advantage.
Personally, I am a pessimist for the next days. I won't be surprised to see the price going under $7,000. Recently <hen the price goes up for some days, it's for going down more after.
I am waiting July and August to see what will happen for Bitcoin

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June 03, 2018, 06:06:37 PM
 #16

I don't really believe in technical analysis to predict bitcoin price. It has already been proven that BTC price is unpredictable.
All these charts and triangles and other stuff are really nice but they don't really mean anything.

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June 03, 2018, 07:00:32 PM
 #17

All these charts and triangles and other stuff are really nice but they don't really mean anything.

It depends. If we look at how in a relatively calmer market mostly only somewhat skilled traders are doing their thing, technical analysis may come handy and turn out to be useful. Only when the speculation circus starts moving again, and noobs and gamblers start becoming active, technical analysis becomes worth less with every day the uncertainties become stronger. Good thing is that we don't have to force ourselves to keep staring at the price every day. I am not invested with a short term mindset, and I am not looking to execute any trades, so there is no point for me to focus on what the market is doing. I mostly don't check prices intentionally, but just see the latest prices when reading through news sites and such.
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June 03, 2018, 08:14:01 PM
 #18

Not really. Even if bitcoin was able to gain some momentum this month, I doubt that any rally would be a long-lasting one under these bearish market conditions. I simply don't think that this bear market would be able to conclude within this month.

But as you said, if we see $8k or higher within the start of the month it's probably going to signal for a pump, albeit a small one.

I wouldn't say that it's a crucial day for end of the bear market, or anything like that. There is simply no evidence to suggest that we're going to welcome a bull market this soon, in my opinion.

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June 03, 2018, 08:37:19 PM
 #19

I've been short term bullish since the May 28th bullish engulfing candle on the daily chart. I agree with the OP that breaking the downtrend line from $9,990 is another short term bullish confirmation, but for me, it's only short term.

Until we break the $10K barrier, a bearish triangle is still in play. Right now, we are hypothetically in the final intra-triangle bounce pictured here:


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June 03, 2018, 09:16:49 PM
 #20

Yes something happened then, Could you please share that what force the market trend to bull suddenly ?
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