Share Your Technical Analysis Guys....

[trupero_uno]

Hello Guys,

I just see a thread to complain for T.A as it doesn't work, the OP says his indicator is using RSI. Well, I myself is new in crypto and still learning but some little experiences for forex and stock exchange help me to know TA with some indicators.
For me, analysis for whatever stuff is needed and at least it will be better rather than no analysis. So far, I notice that in crypto analysis shall be different compared to other stuff as the volume and community is much lesser. It seems need more adaptation to apply TA into crypto, then I think we need together who cares for crypto trading to start find out the modifying the perception of indicator from basic available indicators.
Just to remind especially who still new with trading, use at least 2 indicators for simple practice in trading as one to be confirmed by another. As for my experiences, time frame of the indicators usually needed to be considered.
Just to start, I take sample a chart of one new successful token during ICO but now they are dumped so hard. No other intention just to take sample of it, here is the last picture of the chart:



As can be seen above, there are 3 indicators used:
1. Bollinger Band
2. Ichimoku Cloud
3. Stochastic RSI

From the figure, the price now form a support let's say at 2055 (not exact number). The price is in Horizontal Bollinger Band and now is going up and has penetrated middle of the band then it will usually try to reach the upper part of Bollinger Band. This is confirmed by RSI chart to cross in below area to from in going up, even this line will form down again for next period to bring down the price on that period.
To see other indicator, ichimoku cloud, now the price is inside the cloud and need to see whether it is able to penetrate the cloud until placed above it.

For above perception of indicators, my conclusions:
1. For short term, the price will increase around 10% from current price. After that, it is necessary to see the latest chart for how will it be.
2. For middle term, it is necessary to wait the confirmation of ichimoku cloud whether the price is able to penetrate and place above it. If broken, the price will be higher around 30-40% of current price.
3. Even the possibility to go up seems higher for now, it is important to set cut loss or other risk management with 10% below current price as it is the lowest current support.


As I often heard from several TA traders, they will avoid to enter market or quickly out from the market if there will be big news to come. But for crypto, I think news or the indicators seems to be followed and need to forget TA for a while.
Other thing of my concern in this Crypto, the value of ICO price is interesting since if the project is feasible and have good fundamental profile then it will not be a loss to buy
since the price will go up just in the matter of time. This is for investors, then not to worry about TA or pump and dump since the waiting time is years at least 1 year. But for traders, it is necessary to get small profit by daily or perhaps weekly to compensate some loss that probably will occur.

So guys, please share your opinions on the TA presented above. Do you have different analysis with the indicators above or perhaps other indicators applied by you for such the sample?
What is your conclusion?  

[Mpamaegbu]

To start with, let me quickly correct an erroneous impression, all TA and indicators work. It depends on whoever is using them. I have seen a trader who makes a kill by using just the RSI. I don't use it because I don't understand a jack of how it works. Again, sticking to TA is better on a higher timeframe to get a clearer picture of what the market would do later.

For me, I depend on SR and Trend line.

[godfredmanu]

Moving Averages, simple and Exponential moving average combined gives a good projection when dealing with technical analysis. The outcome of your forecast with moving averages if confirm by a bollinger band,is a great too to determine where to trade.

[feurjak]

Ideally you want several signals/indicators to work with, don't just rely on 1. You want a good Entry & Exit strategy, meaning that your entry and exit position has minimal cost  (e.g. entering at a too low price and having your orders unfulfilled, missing out on the uptrend, or exiting too late and loosing most of your profit gained). I won't share the exact detail/settings of my TA as I'm developing a commercial Trading Agent at the moment. But the general logic I'm using is:

1. Detect a Signal
2. Verify nature of Signal (To confirm Buy or Sell position)
3. Measure strength of Signal (strong buy, weak buy, etc)
4. Specify exact Entry or Exit price (beware of buy walls / sell walls in this case)

With the above 4, I'm measuring 9 things. General rule I suppose with any strategy is, confirm as much as you can that the market is at an uptrend, a Buy signal at a downtrend market has high % probability of loss, your strategy should be based on risk management not on profit maximisation and therefore make sure that your Buy signal is when your confident that the market is at an uptrend (through TA or news).

Time intervals are key. Work with multiple time intervals (I work quarterly, 15m - 1h - 4h). TA at different time intervals can indicate multiple things (e.g. TA at 4 hours can indicate uptrend for the day, TA at 1d can indicate uptrend for the week). I've tried with 5 minute intervals but that's a tricky time interval.....

[hurry_hore]

Interested topic mate, as I heard that the most accurate indicator is Ichimoku Cloud. There are many sub-indicators from this Ichimoku to be combined for resulting best signal. I am seldom to use Ichimoku, sometimes used candle stick pattern even quite complicated to practice as there are similar pattern can be found. But there is other simple way to analyze the chart by seeing trend and volume. Here is the example below:



From the figure above, it is obvious the trend is up as shown by the straight line. Looking the volume that is still small, the up trend has potentially to be a big bounce upward by bigger volume. But it should be always reminded to put cut loss at around 0.25, while profit taking at 0.5 by expecting at least big volume as same with previous biggest volume.
This TA just valid for daily until weekly period, for longer period shall need more time to look.

[alhaji142]

This thread is really educational and informative. I like the pivot point trading strategy more.

[oseikuf44]

My technical analysis is simple. The use of trend lines. Trend lines help in finding the next directions. In addition to trend line ,the use RSI and overbought and oversold indicators is also best for trading.

[trupero_uno]

Ideally you want several signals/indicators to work with, don't just rely on 1. You want a good Entry & Exit strategy, meaning that your entry and exit position has minimal cost  (e.g. entering at a too low price and having your orders unfulfilled, missing out on the uptrend, or exiting too late and loosing most of your profit gained). I won't share the exact detail/settings of my TA as I'm developing a commercial Trading Agent at the moment. But the general logic I'm using is:

1. Detect a Signal
2. Verify nature of Signal (To confirm Buy or Sell position)
3. Measure strength of Signal (strong buy, weak buy, etc)
4. Specify exact Entry or Exit price (beware of buy walls / sell walls in this case)

With the above 4, I'm measuring 9 things. General rule I suppose with any strategy is, confirm as much as you can that the market is at an uptrend, a Buy signal at a downtrend market has high % probability of loss, your strategy should be based on risk management not on profit maximisation and therefore make sure that your Buy signal is when your confident that the market is at an uptrend (through TA or news).

Time intervals are key. Work with multiple time intervals (I work quarterly, 15m - 1h - 4h). TA at different time intervals can indicate multiple things (e.g. TA at 4 hours can indicate uptrend for the day, TA at 1d can indicate uptrend for the week). I've tried with 5 minute intervals but that's a tricky time interval.....

Interested approach you share here, my perception from TA is ability to detect signal for entering the market or to exit it. Measuring the signal strength as my knowledge to see the similarity indicators shown from various time frame/interval. Some of different in crypto trading is the ability to see buy wall or sell wall, but this can be countered by seeing the volume of opposite position such as sell walls by seeing buy volume and vice versa.

Talking interval time within 5 minutes, I am not sure can work in crypto as the volatility is not as high as in forex or stock exchange. How can find the 5 minute interval time in crypto, for which crypto? I am curios since bitcoin as the biggest volume in crypto seems will not provide good chance for this interval time imo

[trupero_uno]

Interested topic mate, as I heard that the most accurate indicator is Ichimoku Cloud. There are many sub-indicators from this Ichimoku to be combined for resulting best signal. I am seldom to use Ichimoku, sometimes used candle stick pattern even quite complicated to practice as there are similar pattern can be found. But there is other simple way to analyze the chart by seeing trend and volume. Here is the example below:

snip//

From the figure above, it is obvious the trend is up as shown by the straight line. Looking the volume that is still small, the up trend has potentially to be a big bounce upward by bigger volume. But it should be always reminded to put cut loss at around 0.25, while profit taking at 0.5 by expecting at least big volume as same with previous biggest volume.
This TA just valid for daily until weekly period, for longer period shall need more time to look.

Interested to see the simple TA presented, seems ignoring other indicators just see the chart of price and volume. From your presented figure, overall I agree that the price trend is up by following the trend line in red color. I notice there is spike on the chart as pointed out by the blue arrow including the biggest volume on lower part, it should be coming from big positive news:



But I think your analysis will be difficult for day trading or also for scalper with much shorter interval time for trading as it will work better for long day trader or real investors with much longer time since buying until selling. From the trend line it can be known the price direction for long term while volume can not be indicated as good signal since it is combination for buy and sell. It is difficult to see the buy signal or sell signal, except to see the volume log trading such as sell wall or buy wall.

[trupero_uno]

This thread is really educational and informative. I like the pivot point trading strategy more.

It is great, by Pivot point you can earn as maximum profit from the bottom. There are various method to calculate pivot point, here I just share some as quoted from https://www.investopedia.com/trading/using-pivot-points-for-predictions/
<There are several different methods for calculating pivot points, the most common of which is the five-point system. This system uses the previous day's high, low and close, along with two support levels and two resistance levels (totaling five price points), to derive a pivot point. The equations are as follows:

Pivot Point (P) = (Previous High + Previous Low + Previous Close)/3

Support 1 (S1) = (Pivot Point x 2) - Previous High

Support 2 (S2) = Pivot Point - (Previous High - Previous Low)

Resistance 1 (R1) = (Pivot Point x 2) - Previous Low

Resistance 2 (R2) = Pivot Point + (Previous High - Previous Low)>

[herurist]

Hello Guys,

I just see a thread to complain for T.A as it doesn't work, the OP says his indicator is using RSI. Well, I myself is new in crypto and still learning but some little experiences for forex and stock exchange help me to know TA with some indicators.
For me, analysis for whatever stuff is needed and at least it will be better rather than no analysis. So far, I notice that in crypto analysis shall be different compared to other stuff as the volume and community is much lesser. It seems need more adaptation to apply TA into crypto, then I think we need together who cares for crypto trading to start find out the modifying the perception of indicator from basic available indicators.
Just to remind especially who still new with trading, use at least 2 indicators for simple practice in trading as one to be confirmed by another. As for my experiences, time frame of the indicators usually needed to be considered.
Just to start, I take sample a chart of one new successful token during ICO but now they are dumped so hard. No other intention just to take sample of it, here is the last picture of the chart:



As can be seen above, there are 3 indicators used:
1. Bollinger Band
2. Ichimoku Cloud
3. Stochastic RSI

From the figure, the price now form a support let's say at 2055 (not exact number). The price is in Horizontal Bollinger Band and now is going up and has penetrated middle of the band then it will usually try to reach the upper part of Bollinger Band. This is confirmed by RSI chart to cross in below area to from in going up, even this line will form down again for next period to bring down the price on that period.
To see other indicator, ichimoku cloud, now the price is inside the cloud and need to see whether it is able to penetrate the cloud until placed above it.

For above perception of indicators, my conclusions:
1. For short term, the price will increase around 10% from current price. After that, it is necessary to see the latest chart for how will it be.
2. For middle term, it is necessary to wait the confirmation of ichimoku cloud whether the price is able to penetrate and place above it. If broken, the price will be higher around 30-40% of current price.
3. Even the possibility to go up seems higher for now, it is important to set cut loss or other risk management with 10% below current price as it is the lowest current support.


As I often heard from several TA traders, they will avoid to enter market or quickly out from the market if there will be big news to come. But for crypto, I think news or the indicators seems to be followed and need to forget TA for a while.
Other thing of my concern in this Crypto, the value of ICO price is interesting since if the project is feasible and have good fundamental profile then it will not be a loss to buy
since the price will go up just in the matter of time. This is for investors, then not to worry about TA or pump and dump since the waiting time is years at least 1 year. But for traders, it is necessary to get small profit by daily or perhaps weekly to compensate some loss that probably will occur.

So guys, please share your opinions on the TA presented above. Do you have different analysis with the indicators above or perhaps other indicators applied by you for such the sample?
What is your conclusion?  

First time trading this is what I do to find enter and exit point but I don't use it anymore. You use 3 indicator I think is good but they will give you different result depend their setting. My opinion is you should find what trend now ( MACD ), after that use MA to find enter and exit point. Try with long term period ( daily - week - month ) so you can manage your money ( asset ). For this one, I suggest money management because this is important part that can safe your asset if you got wrong entry point. Good luck to you.

[feurjak]

Ideally you want several signals/indicators to work with, don't just rely on 1. You want a good Entry & Exit strategy, meaning that your entry and exit position has minimal cost  (e.g. entering at a too low price and having your orders unfulfilled, missing out on the uptrend, or exiting too late and loosing most of your profit gained). I won't share the exact detail/settings of my TA as I'm developing a commercial Trading Agent at the moment. But the general logic I'm using is:

1. Detect a Signal
2. Verify nature of Signal (To confirm Buy or Sell position)
3. Measure strength of Signal (strong buy, weak buy, etc)
4. Specify exact Entry or Exit price (beware of buy walls / sell walls in this case)

With the above 4, I'm measuring 9 things. General rule I suppose with any strategy is, confirm as much as you can that the market is at an uptrend, a Buy signal at a downtrend market has high % probability of loss, your strategy should be based on risk management not on profit maximisation and therefore make sure that your Buy signal is when your confident that the market is at an uptrend (through TA or news).

Time intervals are key. Work with multiple time intervals (I work quarterly, 15m - 1h - 4h). TA at different time intervals can indicate multiple things (e.g. TA at 4 hours can indicate uptrend for the day, TA at 1d can indicate uptrend for the week). I've tried with 5 minute intervals but that's a tricky time interval.....

Interested approach you share here, my perception from TA is ability to detect signal for entering the market or to exit it. Measuring the signal strength as my knowledge to see the similarity indicators shown from various time frame/interval. Some of different in crypto trading is the ability to see buy wall or sell wall, but this can be countered by seeing the volume of opposite position such as sell walls by seeing buy volume and vice versa.

Talking interval time within 5 minutes, I am not sure can work in crypto as the volatility is not as high as in forex or stock exchange. How can find the 5 minute interval time in crypto, for which crypto? I am curios since bitcoin as the biggest volume in crypto seems will not provide good chance for this interval time imo

A lot of if not all alt-coins are volatile enough for 5 minute interval, I just finished up my strategy not long ago and it's working well at 5 minutes. With 5 minutes, average order time for me (from buy to sell) is around 5 hours with average return of 0.8% to 3%.  What was tricky is getting your order filled at the right time (buy and sell order), my old buy signal was adjusted when the market enters an uptrend and a sell signal is when it enters a downtrend. Issue is, the buying and selling window is quite low, especially at 5 minutes so you can easily miss it. What I'm doing is now generating a buy signal when the market has just reached it's bottom (based on fib retracement, Directional Index, etc) and then selling when the market enters an uptrend (EMA crossover, Directional Index, RSI, Ichimoku) and using a trend line as a tracking sell order, that way my sell price is continuously adjusted along with the market trend, it may not mean that it gets filled at the peak but considering I've already entered at the bottom, my returns is good, and if I can exit quickly I can then swing onto another bottom for another alt coin.

[feurjak]

Ideally you want several signals/indicators to work with, don't just rely on 1. You want a good Entry & Exit strategy, meaning that your entry and exit position has minimal cost  (e.g. entering at a too low price and having your orders unfulfilled, missing out on the uptrend, or exiting too late and loosing most of your profit gained). I won't share the exact detail/settings of my TA as I'm developing a commercial Trading Agent at the moment. But the general logic I'm using is:

1. Detect a Signal
2. Verify nature of Signal (To confirm Buy or Sell position)
3. Measure strength of Signal (strong buy, weak buy, etc)
4. Specify exact Entry or Exit price (beware of buy walls / sell walls in this case)

With the above 4, I'm measuring 9 things. General rule I suppose with any strategy is, confirm as much as you can that the market is at an uptrend, a Buy signal at a downtrend market has high % probability of loss, your strategy should be based on risk management not on profit maximisation and therefore make sure that your Buy signal is when your confident that the market is at an uptrend (through TA or news).

Time intervals are key. Work with multiple time intervals (I work quarterly, 15m - 1h - 4h). TA at different time intervals can indicate multiple things (e.g. TA at 4 hours can indicate uptrend for the day, TA at 1d can indicate uptrend for the week). I've tried with 5 minute intervals but that's a tricky time interval.....

Interested approach you share here, my perception from TA is ability to detect signal for entering the market or to exit it. Measuring the signal strength as my knowledge to see the similarity indicators shown from various time frame/interval. Some of different in crypto trading is the ability to see buy wall or sell wall, but this can be countered by seeing the volume of opposite position such as sell walls by seeing buy volume and vice versa.

Talking interval time within 5 minutes, I am not sure can work in crypto as the volatility is not as high as in forex or stock exchange. How can find the 5 minute interval time in crypto, for which crypto? I am curios since bitcoin as the biggest volume in crypto seems will not provide good chance for this interval time imo

A lot of if not all alt-coins are volatile enough for 5 minute interval, I just finished up my strategy not long ago and it's working well at 5 minutes. With 5 minutes, average order time for me (from buy to sell) is around 5 hours with average return of 0.8% to 3%.  What was tricky is getting your order filled at the right time (buy and sell order), my old buy signal was adjusted when the market enters an uptrend and a sell signal is when it enters a downtrend. Issue is, the buying and selling window is quite low, especially at 5 minutes so you can easily miss it. What I'm doing is now generating a buy signal when the market has just reached it's bottom (based on fib retracement, Directional Index, etc) and then selling when the market enters an uptrend (EMA crossover, Directional Index, RSI, Ichimoku) and using a trend line as a tracking sell order, that way my sell price is continuously adjusted along with the market trend, it may not mean that it gets filled at the peak but considering I've already entered at the bottom, my returns is good, and if I can exit quickly I can then swing onto another bottom for another alt coin.

But I think a lot of people would hate my strategy because what I'm doing Is just contributing to the volatility of the market hahaha. I think its great however to always take in consideration of fractal patterns and resistance & support line if you are doing manual TA, momentum & Stoch RSI goes hand to hand, added with identifying a good support line (previous resistance line) increases your confidence of a bounce.

[Moiyah]

I have removed Bollinger Band in my indicator list. Though it is good for the point of entry and exit but I do not feel comfortable with it. I've changed it with Stoich RSI and AO ( Average Oscillator) as it gives more intact TA than the others.

[apityeh71]

For day trading we can use some different indicator but its better only to use maximum 3 different indicator to make trading activity will be more easy to understand price action. Personally i used indicator of Moving average,  RSI and Trendline to determine support and resistance.