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Author Topic: [ 18 mar data ] A BITCOIN PRICE THEORY  (Read 60743 times)
gbianchi (OP)
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August 14, 2014, 10:01:36 AM
 #161

as you can see by the purple line, the growth of total addresses is slowing down.
(the growth forecast was given by the azure line)

This may be related to the stagnation of price these months,
and could be a demonstration of the correctness of the theory.

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August 14, 2014, 03:18:23 PM
 #162

as you can see by the purple line, the growth of total addresses is slowing down.
(the growth forecast was given by the azure line)


This may be related to the stagnation of price these months,
and could be a demonstration of the correctness of the theory.

-Questions:

-a linear line on an linar graph with exponential regression indicates an exponential growth?
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August 14, 2014, 07:29:48 PM
 #163



-a linear line on an linar graph with exponential regression indicates an exponential growth?

Yes.

a line drawn on a chart with the y-axis in logarithmic scale,
represents an exponential curve on a chart with y-axis on a linear scale.

GUIDA PER NUOVI UTENTI https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1241459.0
DO NOT HOLD YOUR BTC ON THIRD PARTY EXCHANGES – BE YOUR OWN BANK https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=945881.0
BITCOIN... WHAT IS IT ? https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=2107660.0
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August 15, 2014, 07:58:52 AM
 #164

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
block#  315484  13/08/2014               num  %noOut   %dead   %of tot %of act  diff prev           value  %noOut  %vdead   %TotVal       diff prev
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
= 0                                 40638141   0.00%   0.00%  92.5963%             108512         0.00000   0.00%   0.00%   0.0000%         0.00000
= 1 satoshi (0.00000001 BTC)          410986  37.96%   8.72%   0.9365%  12.65%        -30         0.00411  37.96%   8.72%   0.0000%        -0.00000
> 1 satoshi <= 0.001 BTC  ( ~1$ )    1197095  80.57%  22.54%   2.7276%  36.84%        671       268.77675  74.93%   6.87%   0.0020%         0.18827
> 0.001 BTC <= 0.1 BTC               1049837  72.09%   6.44%   2.3921%  32.31%       4503     20671.69277  72.30%  10.28%   0.1574%        51.48444
> 0.1 BTC <= 1 BTC                    309668  70.22%   6.83%   0.7056%   9.53%       -872    142897.02268  75.24%   8.63%   1.0880%      -384.17326
> 1 BTC <= 5 BTC                      134589  69.35%   6.40%   0.3067%   4.14%       -183    324862.97334  70.98%   6.83%   2.4734%      -248.25432
> 5 BTC <= 10 BTC                      39839  72.27%   6.08%   0.0908%   1.23%         23    307269.50465  74.19%   6.14%   2.3394%       332.85298
> 10 BTC <= 25 BTC                     30965  70.73%   6.53%   0.0706%   0.95%         24    510506.79412  72.07%   6.77%   3.8868%         9.21737
> 25 BTC <= 50 BTC                     53140  92.18%  69.23%   0.1211%   1.64%         67   2418757.74874  93.90%  75.57%  18.4154%      2560.08303
> 50 BTC <= 75 BTC                      5022  70.07%  14.44%   0.0114%   0.15%         -2    299727.69748  69.65%  13.11%   2.2820%        -2.76748
> 75 BTC <= 100 BTC                     7124  85.79%   5.84%   0.0162%   0.22%         -5    677696.96527  86.77%   5.85%   5.1597%      -346.29853
> 100 BTC <= 500 BTC                    8314  69.80%   6.07%   0.0189%   0.26%          0   1856989.03854  71.65%   6.83%  14.1383%      2472.23282
> 500 btc <= 1000 BTC                   1473  75.90%   6.11%   0.0034%   0.05%         -1   1143418.98895  77.85%   6.37%   8.7055%       677.20594
> 1000 BTC                              1245  70.28%   3.61%   0.0028%   0.04%          0   5431375.56109  70.21%   1.39%  41.3522%     -1496.86830
                  Total Actives      3249297  70.95%  13.73%   7.4037% 100.00%       4195  13134442.76820  76.53%  17.30% 100.0000%      3624.90296
                  Total             43887438   5.25%   1.02% 100.0000%             112707  13134442.76820  76.53%  17.30% 100.0000%      3624.90296
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
block#  315664  14/08/2014               num  %noOut   %dead   %of tot %of act  diff prev           value  %noOut  %vdead   %TotVal       diff prev
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
= 0                                 40743562   0.00%   0.00%  92.6141%             105421         0.00000   0.00%   0.00%   0.0000%         0.00000
= 1 satoshi (0.00000001 BTC)          410963  37.96%   8.72%   0.9342%  12.65%        -23         0.00411  37.96%   8.72%   0.0000%        -0.00000
> 1 satoshi <= 0.001 BTC  ( ~1$ )    1198248  80.60%  22.52%   2.7237%  36.88%       1153       268.84370  75.08%   6.87%   0.0020%         0.06695
> 0.001 BTC <= 0.1 BTC               1048785  72.17%   6.45%   2.3840%  32.28%      -1052     20630.17301  72.56%  10.30%   0.1570%       -41.51975
> 0.1 BTC <= 1 BTC                    309595  70.36%   6.83%   0.7037%   9.53%        -73    142998.76944  75.31%   8.62%   1.0884%       101.74675
> 1 BTC <= 5 BTC                      134636  69.37%   6.40%   0.3060%   4.14%         47    325053.80704  70.98%   6.83%   2.4740%       190.83370
> 5 BTC <= 10 BTC                      39803  72.29%   6.09%   0.0905%   1.22%        -36    306986.47668  74.22%   6.14%   2.3365%      -283.02797
> 10 BTC <= 25 BTC                     30917  70.81%   6.54%   0.0703%   0.95%        -48    509673.17057  72.11%   6.77%   3.8791%      -833.62356
> 25 BTC <= 50 BTC                     53121  92.17%  69.26%   0.1207%   1.63%        -19   2418187.60529  93.89%  75.59%  18.4047%      -570.14345
> 50 BTC <= 75 BTC                      5032  70.17%  14.41%   0.0114%   0.15%         10    300424.89724  69.75%  13.08%   2.2865%       697.19976
> 75 BTC <= 100 BTC                     7117  85.85%   5.85%   0.0162%   0.22%         -7    677153.03655  86.81%   5.86%   5.1538%      -543.92872
> 100 BTC <= 500 BTC                    8334  69.65%   6.06%   0.0189%   0.26%         20   1859178.43854  71.55%   6.82%  14.1501%      2189.40001
> 500 btc <= 1000 BTC                   1468  75.75%   6.13%   0.0033%   0.05%         -5   1138091.59651  77.74%   6.40%   8.6620%     -5327.39244
> 1000 BTC                              1251  70.18%   3.60%   0.0028%   0.04%          6   5440295.92181  70.35%   1.38%  41.4059%      8920.36071
                  Total Actives      3249270  71.00%  13.73%   7.3859% 100.00%        -27  13138942.74019  76.56%  17.29% 100.0000%      4499.97199
                  Total             43992832   5.24%   1.01% 100.0000%             105394  13138942.74019  76.56%  17.29% 100.0000%      4499.97199

num      : number of addresses in this range of balance
%noOut   : percentage of active addresses WITHOUT out operations
%dead    : percentage of active addresses with input and output operations prior to 2012
%of tot  : percentage of the TOTAL number addresses
%of act  : percentage of the number of addresses with zero balance (active)
diff prev: number variation compared to the previous table
%noOut   : % value transactions WITHOUT output ( % value of range)
%vdead   : % operations value prev 2012 ( % value of range))
%TotVal  : % value of this range compared to the total value
diff prev: change in value compared to the previous table

donations : 17ykWbCHG6eMfLt42zCJVw5bZE1YxRMihL

                       gbianchi bitcointalk.org


given the increase in size of blockchain, the server on
which I am running statistics is rapidly becoming inadequate.

I have to  buy a new server with more disk space, ram and cpu power
to continue to produce statistics and graphs.

If you can help with donations, you will help me to continue this service.

Thank you

17ykWbCHG6eMfLt42zCJVw5bZE1YxRMihL

GUIDA PER NUOVI UTENTI https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1241459.0
DO NOT HOLD YOUR BTC ON THIRD PARTY EXCHANGES – BE YOUR OWN BANK https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=945881.0
BITCOIN... WHAT IS IT ? https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=2107660.0
gbianchi (OP)
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August 15, 2014, 07:59:12 AM
 #165

+ 6 addresses greater than 1000 BTC

Yesterday they took the opportunity to accumulate.

GUIDA PER NUOVI UTENTI https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1241459.0
DO NOT HOLD YOUR BTC ON THIRD PARTY EXCHANGES – BE YOUR OWN BANK https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=945881.0
BITCOIN... WHAT IS IT ? https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=2107660.0
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August 17, 2014, 02:21:02 PM
 #166

+ 6 addresses greater than 1000 BTC

Yesterday they took the opportunity to accumulate.

just a sort of manipulation then, someone is playing big out there

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August 18, 2014, 04:45:18 PM
 #167

Interesting work. Following.

  A revolutionary decentralized digital economy 
`Join us:██`Twitter  ◽  Facebook  ◽  Telegram  ◽  Youtube  ◽  Github`
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August 18, 2014, 05:11:00 PM
 #168

+ 6 addresses greater than 1000 BTC

Yesterday they took the opportunity to accumulate.

just a sort of manipulation then, someone is playing big out there

Manipulating the blockchain?
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September 07, 2014, 02:18:49 PM
 #169

bump...

we need you gbianchi  Cheesy
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September 26, 2014, 11:14:47 AM
 #170

BUMP
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September 26, 2014, 03:25:57 PM
 #171

for anyone who really wants the data...look at gbianchi's recent posts here on bitcointalk.  He posts on an italian forum here, but all the data is there, and he seems to update more frequently on that forum (ie the last few days)

on a side note (this might not be the correct forum for it), but i've done a separate regression analysis on active wallets vs price from June 2010 to Jan 2013...with the idea being that after 2013, the willy bot artificially inflated prices.  This actually shows up in the data as well.  There is a solid line of best fit on active wallet vs price graph from June 2010 to Jan 2013.  After Jan 2013 this relationship breaks down.  Now maybe it was metcalf's law taking affect after Jan 2013...or maybe it was the willy bot.   My model assumes no metcalf's law, and only zipf's law (which is a 2x increase in price for every 2x increase in users...as opposed to metcalfs law which is a 4x increase in price for every 2x increase in users).  My models shows a fair value of less than $100 per coin...but that fair value is growing at 50-100% per year.  Anyways...more details here:

http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/2h8he9/longterm_correlation_btc_users_vs_btc_price/
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September 29, 2014, 05:28:01 PM
 #172

Hope you have time to update. Expected!
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October 06, 2014, 08:47:09 AM
 #173

for anyone who really wants the data...look at gbianchi's recent posts here on bitcointalk.  He posts on an italian forum here, but all the data is there, and he seems to update more frequently on that forum (ie the last few days)

on a side note (this might not be the correct forum for it), but i've done a separate regression analysis on active wallets vs price from June 2010 to Jan 2013...with the idea being that after 2013, the willy bot artificially inflated prices.  This actually shows up in the data as well.  There is a solid line of best fit on active wallet vs price graph from June 2010 to Jan 2013.  After Jan 2013 this relationship breaks down.  Now maybe it was metcalf's law taking affect after Jan 2013...or maybe it was the willy bot.   My model assumes no metcalf's law, and only zipf's law (which is a 2x increase in price for every 2x increase in users...as opposed to metcalfs law which is a 4x increase in price for every 2x increase in users).  My models shows a fair value of less than $100 per coin...but that fair value is growing at 50-100% per year.  Anyways...more details here:

http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/2h8he9/longterm_correlation_btc_users_vs_btc_price/

The discussion is good on reddit, but the charts are still key. I'm interested in seeing the long term chart updated (the one with the 2011 trend line).
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November 21, 2014, 02:21:36 PM
 #174

Update por favor, OP?
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November 21, 2014, 06:05:10 PM
 #175

I donate with the hope to see this updated once in a while...  Cry
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November 22, 2014, 04:42:16 PM
 #176

I always enjoyed following these updates.
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December 03, 2014, 10:04:17 PM
 #177

I really would like to see this thread updated too.
I found this thread through an external website
I like the statistics and charts

edit: maybe a little tip helps.
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January 02, 2015, 02:11:04 PM
Last edit: January 02, 2015, 05:22:22 PM by gbianchi
 #178

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
block#  100411  31/12/2010               num  %noOut   %dead   %of tot %of act  diff prev           value  %noOut  %vdead   %TotVal       diff prev
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
= 0                                   110704   0.00%   0.00%  62.7841%                            0.00000   0.00%   0.00%   0.0000%         0.00000
= 1 satoshi (0.00000001 BTC)                   0.00%   0.00%   0.0000%   0.00%                    0.00000   0.00%   0.00%   0.0000%         0.00000
> 1 satoshi <= 0.001 BTC  ( ~1$ )         12  75.00% 100.00%   0.0068%   0.02%                    0.00336  80.42% 100.00%   0.0000%         0.00000
> 0.001 BTC <= 0.1 BTC                  6722  96.86% 100.00%   3.8123%  10.24%                  327.81246  96.95% 100.00%   0.0065%         0.00000
> 0.1 BTC <= 1 BTC                      1887  90.73% 100.00%   1.0702%   2.88%                 1032.69297  90.05% 100.00%   0.0206%         0.00000
> 1 BTC <= 5 BTC                        1847  94.10% 100.00%   1.0475%   2.81%                 8064.09338  96.04% 100.00%   0.1606%         0.00000
> 5 BTC <= 10 BTC                        318  90.88% 100.00%   0.1803%   0.48%                 2595.23263  90.79% 100.00%   0.0517%         0.00000
> 10 BTC <= 25 BTC                       338  80.47% 100.00%   0.1917%   0.52%                 6093.05494  81.29% 100.00%   0.1214%         0.00000
> 25 BTC <= 50 BTC                     52650  99.87% 100.00%  29.8596%  80.23%              2629114.32498  99.89% 100.00%  52.3676%         0.00000
> 50 BTC <= 75 BTC                       403  95.04% 100.00%   0.2286%   0.61%                21260.91189  94.76% 100.00%   0.4235%         0.00000
> 75 BTC <= 100 BTC                      290  90.69% 100.00%   0.1645%   0.44%                28222.39000  91.08% 100.00%   0.5621%         0.00000
> 100 BTC <= 500 BTC                     652  85.43% 100.00%   0.3698%   0.99%               152991.74433  86.01% 100.00%   3.0473%         0.00000
> 500 btc <= 1000 BTC                    183  79.23% 100.00%   0.1038%   0.28%               139618.37000  81.14% 100.00%   2.7810%         0.00000
> 1000 BTC                               319  68.97% 100.00%   0.1809%   0.49%              2031179.33906  65.78% 100.00%  40.4577%         0.00000
                  Total Actives        65621  98.57% 100.00%  37.2159% 100.00%              5020499.97000  85.04% 100.00% 100.0000%         0.00000
                  Total               176325  36.68%  37.22% 100.0000%                      5020499.97000  85.04% 100.00% 100.0000%         0.00000
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
block#  160038  31/12/2011               num  %noOut   %dead   %of tot %of act  diff prev           value  %noOut  %vdead   %TotVal       diff prev
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
= 0                                  2200323   0.00%   0.00%  79.4772%            2089619         0.00000   0.00%   0.00%   0.0000%         0.00000
= 1 satoshi (0.00000001 BTC)           36044  99.91% 100.00%   1.3019%   6.34%      36044         0.00036  99.91% 100.00%   0.0000%         0.00036
> 1 satoshi <= 0.001 BTC  ( ~1$ )     277667  99.53% 100.00%  10.0295%  48.87%     277655        24.75383  96.69% 100.00%   0.0003%        24.75047
> 0.001 BTC <= 0.1 BTC                103175  94.56% 100.00%   3.7268%  18.16%      96453      3162.68657  93.58% 100.00%   0.0395%      2834.87412
> 0.1 BTC <= 1 BTC                     43519  86.16% 100.00%   1.5719%   7.66%      41632     23945.96056  88.34% 100.00%   0.2994%     22913.26759
> 1 BTC <= 5 BTC                       27478  79.35% 100.00%   0.9925%   4.84%      25631     70731.40032  80.18% 100.00%   0.8842%     62667.30694
> 5 BTC <= 10 BTC                      10265  77.05% 100.00%   0.3708%   1.81%       9947     78185.24959  78.19% 100.00%   0.9774%     75590.01696
> 10 BTC <= 25 BTC                     10385  74.68% 100.00%   0.3751%   1.83%      10047    172498.32686  75.57% 100.00%   2.1564%    166405.27192
> 25 BTC <= 50 BTC                     47267  95.81% 100.00%   1.7073%   8.32%      -5383   2275977.27578  96.81% 100.00%  28.4524%   -353137.04920
> 50 BTC <= 75 BTC                      3896  80.03% 100.00%   0.1407%   0.69%       3493    221785.60479  78.82% 100.00%   2.7726%    200524.69290
> 75 BTC <= 100 BTC                     2675  81.91% 100.00%   0.0966%   0.47%       2385    249989.07328  82.77% 100.00%   3.1252%    221766.68328
> 100 BTC <= 500 BTC                    4310  75.03% 100.00%   0.1557%   0.76%       3658    983822.93980  77.67% 100.00%  12.2990%    830831.19547
> 500 btc <= 1000 BTC                    810  81.48% 100.00%   0.0293%   0.14%        627    581789.23244  80.99% 100.00%   7.2731%    442170.86244
> 1000 BTC                               682  75.66% 100.00%   0.0246%   0.12%        363   3337325.09071  78.88% 100.00%  41.7205%   1306145.75165
                  Total Actives       568173  95.02% 100.00%  20.5228% 100.00%     502552   7999237.59489  84.07% 100.00% 100.0000%   2978737.62489
                  Total              2768496  19.50%  20.52% 100.0000%            2592171   7999237.59489  84.07% 100.00% 100.0000%   2978737.62489
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
block#  214564  31/12/2012               num  %noOut   %dead   %of tot %of act  diff prev           value  %noOut  %vdead   %TotVal       diff prev
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
= 0                                  7627060   0.00%   0.00%  87.5930%            5426737         0.00000   0.00%   0.00%   0.0000%         0.00000
= 1 satoshi (0.00000001 BTC)          222014  20.00%  16.16%   2.5497%  20.55%     185970         0.00222  20.00%  16.16%   0.0000%         0.00186
> 1 satoshi <= 0.001 BTC  ( ~1$ )     402002  92.44%  68.02%   4.6168%  37.21%     124335        58.17785  88.62%  36.82%   0.0005%        33.42402
> 0.001 BTC <= 0.1 BTC                241069  86.61%  33.81%   2.7686%  22.31%     137894      5386.80111  85.62%  47.40%   0.0508%      2224.11454
> 0.1 BTC <= 1 BTC                     76509  78.14%  38.61%   0.8787%   7.08%      32990     40539.16459  82.91%  41.92%   0.3820%     16593.20403
> 1 BTC <= 5 BTC                       39713  73.66%  36.66%   0.4561%   3.68%      12235    102236.36213  75.45%  36.99%   0.9635%     31504.96182
> 5 BTC <= 10 BTC                      15384  75.17%  32.18%   0.1767%   1.42%       5119    118118.87377  76.39%  32.34%   1.1131%     39933.62418
> 10 BTC <= 25 BTC                     16167  73.60%  27.59%   0.1857%   1.50%       5782    268258.62788  74.55%  27.92%   2.5280%     95760.30103
> 25 BTC <= 50 BTC                     49369  95.17%  83.82%   0.5670%   4.57%       2102   2330053.43839  96.35%  87.53%  21.9581%     54076.16261
> 50 BTC <= 75 BTC                      4818  78.19%  32.52%   0.0553%   0.45%        922    281809.73145  77.25%  31.04%   2.6557%     60024.12666
> 75 BTC <= 100 BTC                     3586  78.78%  29.64%   0.0412%   0.33%        911    330423.13107  79.65%  30.62%   3.1139%     80434.05779
> 100 BTC <= 500 BTC                    7323  72.68%  19.01%   0.0841%   0.68%       3013   1679894.33750  74.25%  18.84%  15.8311%    696071.39769
> 500 btc <= 1000 BTC                   1343  73.57%  14.07%   0.0154%   0.12%        533    983776.00183  73.88%  14.79%   9.2710%    401986.76938
> 1000 BTC                              1027  66.41%  27.95%   0.0118%   0.10%        345   4470823.13533  66.27%  23.99%  42.1324%   1133498.04462
                  Total Actives      1080324  73.85%  45.38%  12.4070% 100.00%     512151  10611377.78496  76.04%  37.07% 100.0000%   2612140.19007
                  Total              8707384   9.16%   5.63% 100.0000%            5938888  10611377.78496  76.04%  37.07% 100.0000%   2612140.19007
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
block#  277997  31/12/2013               num  %noOut   %dead   %of tot %of act  diff prev           value  %noOut  %vdead   %TotVal       diff prev
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
= 0                                 22441758   0.00%   0.00%  90.4651%           14814698         0.00000   0.00%   0.00%   0.0000%         0.00000
= 1 satoshi (0.00000001 BTC)          404280  38.36%   8.87%   1.6297%  17.09%     182266         0.00404  38.36%   8.87%   0.0000%         0.00182
> 1 satoshi <= 0.001 BTC  ( ~1$ )     847019  82.64%  32.00%   3.4144%  35.81%     445017       162.81388  74.23%  11.96%   0.0013%       104.63603
> 0.001 BTC <= 0.1 BTC                668303  69.87%  10.59%   2.6940%  28.25%     427234     13963.94830  76.12%  15.85%   0.1145%      8577.14719
> 0.1 BTC <= 1 BTC                    226412  72.06%  10.01%   0.9127%   9.57%     149903    108218.11728  76.81%  12.19%   0.8872%     67678.95270
> 1 BTC <= 5 BTC                       95003  69.19%   9.86%   0.3830%   4.02%      55290    233059.78513  70.93%  10.34%   1.9108%    130823.42300
> 5 BTC <= 10 BTC                      29992  72.25%   8.98%   0.1209%   1.27%      14608    233938.55174  74.16%   8.96%   1.9180%    115819.67797
> 10 BTC <= 25 BTC                     24236  70.10%   9.28%   0.0977%   1.02%       8069    403972.84523  71.55%   9.47%   3.3120%    135714.21735
> 25 BTC <= 50 BTC                     49906  92.97%  74.92%   0.2012%   2.11%        537   2321854.58095  94.60%  79.96%  19.0358%     -8198.85743
> 50 BTC <= 75 BTC                      4508  71.61%  16.99%   0.0182%   0.19%       -310    269043.68708  71.13%  15.48%   2.2058%    -12766.04437
> 75 BTC <= 100 BTC                     5439  82.37%   8.59%   0.0219%   0.23%       1853    513632.90805  83.38%   8.67%   4.2110%    183209.77698
> 100 BTC <= 500 BTC                    7588  69.39%   8.76%   0.0306%   0.32%        265   1707653.00812  70.44%   9.33%  14.0003%     27758.67062
> 500 btc <= 1000 BTC                   1541  71.84%   6.68%   0.0062%   0.07%        198   1181905.22759  74.39%   6.94%   9.6899%    198129.22576
> 1000 BTC                              1096  67.88%  11.04%   0.0044%   0.05%         69   5209868.29249  70.74%   6.61%  42.7134%    739045.15716
                  Total Actives      2365323  69.79%  19.20%   9.5349% 100.00%    1284999  12197273.76960  76.29%  21.54% 100.0000%   1585895.98464
                  Total             24807081   6.65%   1.83% 100.0000%           16099697  12197273.76960  76.29%  21.54% 100.0000%   1585895.98464
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
block#  336862  31/12/2014               num  %noOut   %dead   %of tot %of act  diff prev           value  %noOut  %vdead   %TotVal       diff prev
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
= 0                                 54944809   0.00%   0.00%  93.3378%           32503051         0.00000   0.00%   0.00%   0.0000%         0.00000
= 1 satoshi (0.00000001 BTC)          425449  36.77%   8.42%   0.7227%  10.85%      21169         0.00425  36.77%   8.42%   0.0000%         0.00021
> 1 satoshi <= 0.001 BTC  ( ~1$ )    1584368  79.94%  17.02%   2.6915%  40.40%     737349       364.77070  74.93%   5.04%   0.0027%       201.95683
> 0.001 BTC <= 0.1 BTC               1245555  71.94%   5.39%   2.1159%  31.76%     577252     26304.16591  76.22%   8.02%   0.1924%     12340.21761
> 0.1 BTC <= 1 BTC                    361491  72.13%   5.79%   0.6141%   9.22%     135079    162337.87015  76.66%   7.52%   1.1876%     54119.75287
> 1 BTC <= 5 BTC                      150185  70.68%   5.64%   0.2551%   3.83%      55182    361545.51245  72.13%   6.03%   2.6450%    128485.72731
> 5 BTC <= 10 BTC                      43972  73.40%   5.37%   0.0747%   1.12%      13980    337480.49703  75.31%   5.44%   2.4690%    103541.94529
> 10 BTC <= 25 BTC                     34620  72.49%   5.67%   0.0588%   0.88%      10384    570402.25826  73.83%   5.87%   4.1730%    166429.41302
> 25 BTC <= 50 BTC                     52294  91.99%  70.07%   0.0888%   1.33%       2388   2402065.82007  93.83%  75.81%  17.5732%     80211.23912
> 50 BTC <= 75 BTC                      5290  70.11%  13.08%   0.0090%   0.13%        782    316216.89284  69.78%  11.84%   2.3134%     47173.20576
> 75 BTC <= 100 BTC                     7282  86.06%   5.48%   0.0124%   0.19%       1843    691247.41840  87.00%   5.50%   5.0571%    177614.51035
> 100 BTC <= 500 BTC                    8266  70.05%   3.83%   0.0140%   0.21%        678   1743863.45707  71.07%   2.91%  12.7579%     36210.44895
> 500 btc <= 1000 BTC                   1550  78.52%   0.00%   0.0026%   0.04%          9   1062647.20132  78.30%   0.00%   7.7742%   -119258.02626
> 1000 BTC                              1492  76.74%   0.00%   0.0025%   0.04%        396   5994408.54333  69.34%   0.00%  43.8544%    784540.25084
                  Total Actives      3921814  71.64%  11.33%   6.6622% 100.00%    1556491  13668884.41149  75.97%  14.89% 100.0000%   1471610.64189
                  Total             58866623   4.77%   0.75% 100.0000%           34059542  13668884.41149  75.97%  14.89% 100.0000%   1471610.64189

num      : number of addresses in this range of balance
%noOut   : percentage of active addresses WITHOUT out operations
%dead    : percentage of active addresses with input and output operations prior to 2012
%of tot  : percentage of the TOTAL number addresses
%of act  : percentage of the number of addresses with zero balance (active)
diff prev: number variation compared to the previous table
%noOut   : % value transactions WITHOUT output ( % value of range)
%vdead   : % operations value prev 2012 ( % value of range))
%TotVal  : % value of this range compared to the total value
diff prev: change in value compared to the previous table

donations : 17ykWbCHG6eMfLt42zCJVw5bZE1YxRMihL

                       gbianchi bitcointalk.org


here raw annual data of BTC account.

some considerations:


more than half of the bitcoin "products" during the year (784540.25084 of 1471610),
ended up in accounts> 1000 BTC. Accounts> 1000 BTC are 396  more than last year.
(the big fish are not dumping at all, indeed .... now own almost 44% of total bitcoins in circulation)

In the range> 500 <1000 instead there was a decline of capitalization of nearly 120,000 bitcoins. I do not know if you can
be due to the various USA authorities sales or what, this needs further investigation


active addresse rose from 2365323 to 3921814, increased by 1556491. A little under my projections,
but still a very significant increase. If we keep good my average of 3 to active addresses for any user, we can
approximate that during the year at least a half a million new users have entered the "bitcoin world".

A negative figure are the few accounts with balances> 0.1 bitcoin (about 30 $), little more than half  million.

GUIDA PER NUOVI UTENTI https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1241459.0
DO NOT HOLD YOUR BTC ON THIRD PARTY EXCHANGES – BE YOUR OWN BANK https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=945881.0
BITCOIN... WHAT IS IT ? https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=2107660.0
stonerider
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January 02, 2015, 03:58:21 PM
 #179

Nice theory.

According to the latest update, we are seeing a movement to centralizing coins into a few big whale wallets, which bodes bad for the future of the bitcoin.
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January 02, 2015, 04:24:59 PM
 #180

Nice theory.

According to the latest update, we are seeing a movement to centralizing coins into a few big whale wallets, which bodes bad for the future of the bitcoin.

these are exchanges

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