Goat's speculation thread (currently HODL)

[aminorex]

Perhaps because I am a Libra, I often feel the need to offer a counterbalance:

When the market price exceeds the discounted fundamental forward value, it would be wise to sell.  That will inevitably become true at some point (unless there are no other comparably liquid exchange media).  Perhaps even during my lifetime. 

[JimboToronto]

it is run by long time trusted forum member DeathAndTaxes and not by some Wall Street clown.

But, but... those are Wall St. trayDURRz. Don't you watch movies? They're always so cool. They have such nicely styled hair and wear cool suits.

They're not clowns. They're cool dudes, someone to emulate. They even drive BMWs.

You just wish you were a real prophesunnal trayDURR.

What kind of car do you (or is it the old lady?) drive? I'll bet it's not a Beemer.

We have a Jeep Cherokee, Merc SL 500 and the Gallrdo Lambo.

No Beemers. Honestly I can't even recall ever being in one.  

No Tesla? For some reason I thought you got one not too long before buying the Lambchop.

I haven't been in a BMW since the late 1980s when my real estate agent took me for a hair-raising trip at 180-220 km/h on highway 404 to get to the land registry office before closing. The thing did change lanes like it was on tracks, but I'd never buy one.

No offense to those who love driving but I consider it to be a servant's chore like mopping floors or gardening. I prefer taxicabs until I can afford a full-time chauffeur chauffeuse.

[SilverandBitcoins]

Goat, Has most of your wealth come from cryptos?

[zedicus]

I wanted to give bitsimple a go but im in a state they dont support yet.. I wonder what the issues is in those state?

[rpietila]

I guess I will answer the best I can. It is really about being in the right place at the right time. I have done really well and also lost my ass in the past. I have pretty much been involved in just about anything BTC related that was not an obvious scam, and some that where.

Honestly with all of that experience I would say just HODLING either BTC or LTC is going to over all just be the best. HODL your crypto where it can't get stolen and forget about it for 3 or 4 years. Had I done that I honestly would be better off than where I am now and would have been so much easier.

I think you are still doing it right. Bitcoin's purchasing power is appreciating so rapidly that the big holders (anyone who plans to have BTC10 or more after 3 years) need to prepare for increasing of their status in so many aspects. Guns and ammo is one. A core organisation (manager, secretary, chauffeur, chef, gardener, lawyer, security) is another. Personal money and personnel management skills are yet another. Publicity skills are still another. If we "take it easy" now, it will not be easy when we are still total noobs with respect to everything, yet have huge wealth that everyone around us is just preying from us. You do not become an emperor overnight. Trying everything with limited risk is probably beneficial, even if it results in a decrease of your bitcoin holdings that you could have kept just by holding.

Note, this does not apply to wasting your time with things that don't enhance your knowledge. Day trading is something that sucks you time, yet does not provide much in return.

[oda.krell]

Haha, I would rather gnaw off my own foot than post in that other quality TA thread, but this one is great.

However, I disagree with the basic premise: don't just hodl. Occasionally, after careful consideration, sodl to buy back cheapler.

My brain hurts.

This thread is not making fun of that thread or others like it, just people who think they can call the markets.     You might be right most of the time but when you are wrong, it could really mess you up. I have done this long enough, and been lucky enough to know I should have just HODL.

Eh, there's one point in which I tend to agree with MatTheCat's crazy rantings: it's easy for the earliest adopters/investors/miners to pontificate about the amazing success of buy & hold, if for no other reason than that, if you weren't extremely cautious and/or dumb, there's a good chance you're holding well upwards of 1k coins. Myself, I have a tentative BTC goal (nothing too unrealistic, but approximately twice as much as I hold now), and I'll cut down active trading once I reach that goal (and December brought me much closer already). But to each his own, I guess.

[billyjoeallen]

Eh, there's one point in which I tend to agree with MatTheCat's crazy rantings: it's easy for the earliest adopters/investors/miners to pontificate about the amazing success of buy & hold, if for no other reason than that, if you weren't extremely cautious and/or dumb, there's a good chance you're holding well upwards of 1k coins. Myself, I have a tentative BTC goal (nothing too unrealistic, but approximately twice as much as I hold now), and I'll cut down active trading once I reach that goal (and December brought me much closer already). But to each his own, I guess.

If you can do it, do it. I myself did. But keep in mind you could lose everything. Having half as much BTC as you want is better than having none. If I were to do it again I would HODL!

ditto.

[oda.krell]

Eh, there's one point in which I tend to agree with MatTheCat's crazy rantings: it's easy for the earliest adopters/investors/miners to pontificate about the amazing success of buy & hold, if for no other reason than that, if you weren't extremely cautious and/or dumb, there's a good chance you're holding well upwards of 1k coins. Myself, I have a tentative BTC goal (nothing too unrealistic, but approximately twice as much as I hold now), and I'll cut down active trading once I reach that goal (and December brought me much closer already). But to each his own, I guess.

If you can do it, do it. I myself did. But keep in mind you could lose everything. Having half as much BTC as you want is better than having none. If I were to do it again I would HODL!

ditto.

No risk, no fun

Seriously, though, there's one pretty good advice for everyone who asks himself what to do, b&h or active trading:

If you plan to get into BTC, buy in with whatever fiat you're prepared (and able) to lose. Then take, say, 5% of the resulting total btc and use them as your trading portfolio. Check where you stand after a month or so: you did well? Make it 10%. You failed at making a profit, or made a net loss? Make it 2.5%

You get the idea. There's no need to actively trade with a large fraction of your BTC holding, unless you have some confirmation that you're consistently making a profit (on average). So the goal is to determine whether your own idea of how well you trade matches reality, and not lose your pants in the process of finding out.

edit: sp

[StarenseN]

I'm 85% Crypto (BTC/LTC)

I would help out

HODL.

 

[Lloydie]

Dear Goat,

I have a few questions:

1. What is your ltc versus Btc split? And could you please share the reasons?

2. What is your view on the current price of asicminer shares? Approx. 0.57 Btc

3. Is casinobitcoin.in legit?

Thanks.  

[Lloydie]

Thanks. Re 3, I thought maybe you had looked into it. Re, ltc v Btc, which is undervalued now, in your view?

[Lloydie]

Thanks. Re 3, I thought maybe you had looked into it. Re, ltc v Btc, which is undervalued now, in your view?

Honestly I don't know what the BTC/LTC ratio should be. If the Bitcoin Foundation keeps trying to destroy BTC we might see LTC higher than BTC soon.

Who knows.

Very good point, I didn't consider. Though hard to see ltc not being affected also in that scenario.

[Lloydie]

Thanks. Re 3, I thought maybe you had looked into it. Re, ltc v Btc, which is undervalued now, in your view?

Honestly I don't know what the BTC/LTC ratio should be. If the Bitcoin Foundation keeps trying to destroy BTC we might see LTC higher than BTC soon.

Who knows.

Very good point, I didn't consider. Though hard to see ltc not being affected also in that scenario.

If the Foundation forced code changes to BTC to make it more traceable or whatever people will flee BTC so fast it is not funny.

LTC will not have these code changes added.

Won't people assume that ltc will also have changes forced on it? I guess price drop will be less until it happens.

Also re Btc, in event of forced change, let's say two networks are formed, what happens to existing btcs?

[Lloydie]

Thanks. Re 3, I thought maybe you had looked into it. Re, ltc v Btc, which is undervalued now, in your view?

Honestly I don't know what the BTC/LTC ratio should be. If the Bitcoin Foundation keeps trying to destroy BTC we might see LTC higher than BTC soon.

Who knows.

Very good point, I didn't consider. Though hard to see ltc not being affected also in that scenario.

If the Foundation forced code changes to BTC to make it more traceable or whatever people will flee BTC so fast it is not funny.

LTC will not have these code changes added.

Won't people assume that ltc will also have changes forced on it? I guess price drop will be less until it happens.

Also re Btc, in event of forced change, let's say two networks are formed, what happens to existing btcs?

Gavin Anderson seems willing to work with these people who want to regulate it. The LTC community does not.

The BTC Foundation and Gavin might cause if nothing else a "civil war" in BTC land but this wont happen in LTC.

There is no way the miners would support adding any of the code Gavin would want us to add.

Let's say one third of the host of angels follow Gavin down the dark path, and two thirds stay with the light. What would happen to existing Btc holdings? Will I hold btcs in both networks? Thanks for taking the time.

[oda.krell]

Never got all the negativity about the foundation. Sure, they're far from perfect, and there's a vibe of unnecessary secrecy, but by and large, I support them (and became a member as a result). It's a balancing act between a myriad of interests, and I think so far they (and by "they" I mean Gavin) handled it rather well.

[Lloydie]

This might be stating the obvious but I didn't realise until just now: whatever Gavin or the foundation proposes must be accepted by a large majority of miners, else they risk a hard fork where the btc community splits. It's a good check againt proposed amendments re: privacy.

I think goat's point is that the Ltc community would never put up with those kinds of changes, as the miners are so diverse and global.  I don't think btc miners would agree either.  Way too much money invested in it now. Whether the US accepts btcs or not is not that relevant to current mining revenues.

[Lloydie]

Can you provide details on "very big problems with some of the stuff they are doing"? thanks.

[Lloydie]

Can you provide details on "stuff you don't agree with"? thanks.

mostly them working with the fbi and gates foundation in a policing action to fight crime.

the foundation should not be a police force.

I think they don't have a real choice in cooperating with gov't (which is why I believe Satoshi disappeared). Hard to see what Gavin can do without miners' cooperation.  Do you see anything?

[abacus]

Hi Goat!

It seems he became a coin:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=429599.0

Confirmed, he's now a coin

Is he really behind that?  It doesn't seem so.

Holy crap! I thought the sarcasm was clearly detectable (what happened -> Goat's transformation).

Sorry if I hijack this thread for a moment, but after noticing your official statement on that CrapCoin thread, I would like to make clear that I don't intentionally spread FUD (other than the Confirmed Bad News Sources Thread, lol).

Back in topic:
HODLing is the olny way! 

[El Dude]

Goat is it ok to just hodl LTC ?