What are the actual reasons that Bitcoin prices may go up or down this year?

[NoviceInvestor]

There are lots of threads where people predict that Bitcoin will go up in price, or go down in price. Many of these simply claim that to be true without actually giving any reasons. Sometimes it's just based on the poster's feeling or unexplained belief.

What are the actual verifiable arguments based on verifiable evidence to predict the future price of Bitcoin?

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[talkbitcoin]

all those topics here and elsewhere on the internet that are throwing a price at you and tell you this is their "prediction" is pure bullshit. it doesn't matter if it is a higher price or a lower one. the worse part is some of them also throw a lot of nonsense at you and call that "reasons" and "analysis". they are the worst of all people!

What are the actual verifiable arguments based on verifiable evidence to predict the future price of Bitcoin?

there is no "evidence", there is just speculation. you can see some good ones on tradingview.com and on extremely rare situations in the speculation board.

in the end you must only trust yourself and your own analysis.

[Meysa_richa]

It is true that sometimes people determine the price up or down it is only from the argument, but I think with graphics or international news can affect the price of bitcoin.

[bellamente]

I watch the whales' wallets. Now they are emptying and I can assume that demand for bitcoin this year will increase, which will affect the growth rate of bitcoin.

Whales will have a harder time influencing the CryptoCurrency market every year

[Pursuer]

I watch the whales' wallets. Now they are emptying and I can assume that demand for bitcoin this year will increase, which will affect the growth rate of bitcoin.

Whales will have a harder time influencing the CryptoCurrency market every year

there is no such thing as "whale wallet" that you watch or not. there are only addresses on the blockchain and there are transactions between these addresses and unless you are 100% sure that the destination address does not belong to the same person you can not claim that the "wallet" is emptying.
and transactions like that are happening every minute of every day you just happened to catch one of many!

[NoviceInvestor]

Thanks for the thoughtful responses.

My 'own analysis' is that markets depend on the people who participate in them. And what I see here are, in the majority, predictions on both the low and high side which don't appear based on anything. This makes me think that Bitcoin, even now in it's relatively stable, compared to a few months ago, state is not functioning as a proper market, but is based on unthinking guesses. And when they turn out to be wrong, as the mostly turn out to be, that destroys confidence in the market. I don't think people, at least those predicting rises, intend to do so. But, in my mind, that's what happens.

It's not only posts here. There was a thread some time ago when people were posting links to financial websites making predictions. When I looked on wayback machine, the same sites had deleted predictions from previous months and years that were way out.

I'm sure that there are people making a killing on BTC even now, but they are going to be those who really understand the current market. I've been making my own predictions and then seeing how accurate I am, and I've been way off. So, I remain a Johnnynocoins.

I'm curious about what sort of facts underly the market, hence my question.

[xanaxxx]

There are lots of threads where people predict that Bitcoin will go up in price, or go down in price. Many of these simply claim that to be true without actually giving any reasons. Sometimes it's just based on the poster's feeling or unexplained belief.

What are the actual verifiable arguments based on verifiable evidence to predict the future price of Bitcoin?

the reasons why it should go up in my opinion is regulation that is coming which will allow large investment groups and banks to enter the industry. That will increase the prices a lot

[Febo]

There are lots of threads where people predict that Bitcoin will go up in price, or go down in price. Many of these simply claim that to be true without actually giving any reasons. Sometimes it's just based on the poster's feeling or unexplained belief.

What are the actual verifiable arguments based on verifiable evidence to predict the future price of Bitcoin?

Prices will go down this year not up. Reason is that at end of last year we had ATH. After each ATH market needs to stabilize and build new momentum for next bull run. This stabilization will happen over this year and also next. At end of next year we should expect that bull run start forming.

[bocyaj]

After the raise of 19k$,many traders and investors expect bitcoin price will cross the 30k$ by the end of March.But the fact is the bitcoin price reduced to unexpected low value.The main cause of this is bitcoin is officially announced as illegal in China.Then it is addressed as illegal and term as legal in South Korea.

[Theb]

There are many reasons one of which is we are still left devastated from the last bull run. With new participants entering the market in the latest bull run all of them experienced losses as they came unprepared. And with the whales still benefiting from the time they liquidated I don't think we will have a considerable price movement in the cryptoucurrency market for a considerable leghth of time. This bear market might last for a while but reversals could happen as soon as the whales starts pourin in some money.

[bitcad4u]

Many reason is behind this fluctuation.May be due to the FUD in the Market.Many times,FUD is the major cause of price fall.Due to this new investor and traders sell their valuable bitcoin at low price.Since we know the price will increase,we have to hold at that price .

[richardsNY]

The only verifiable argument is that the price has been going up continuously in the last years. There is absolutely nothing that people can say or factually prove that whatever event or development in the future will cause the price to go up. We only have our assumptions and theories, and they both will be proven right or wrong as years go by. I don't expect anything from the market, which is why I am never disappointed if the price goes up or down. While people keep saying that we're currently in a bear market, which technically might be the case based only on last year's high, I find current levels to be near its 'actual' / 'justifiable' high. In easy terms, the price isn't low at all....

[dothebeats]

The reasons most of the people hold for the price to go mental this year is through the charts and previous market activity on the last quarters of the year. Personally, not every aspect of analysis ring true, or for that matter, not every price jumps or crashes need a reason; it simply happens due to market growth and trader's confidence. I for one thinks that the bearish sentiment, despite the awkward sideways movement of the market currently, is still present and might prevent any potential pushes in the next coming months. No good news I see is coming but rather overhyping and hysteria once again.

[reflectcrypto9524]

Well, the main thing is it is very hard to predict something very exactly. But the prediction of bitcoin can be done by analyzing the previous market condition and the market volume.

[timerland]

The most important reason is probably the cycles in the market.

When there is a bull market, no matter how much bad news is floating around, the price will be in an uptrend the majority of the time. When there is a bear market, no matter how much good news is around, prices will usually be stagnant/going down. That's just the nature of the bitcoin markets. It moves in cycles.

but is based on unthinking guesses. And when they turn out to be wrong, as the mostly turn out to be, that destroys confidence in the market. I don't think people, at least those predicting rises, intend to do so. But, in my mind, that's what happens.

I don't think that incorrect speculation leads to any dumps at all. If I said an incorrect prediction, I doubt anyone would active pursue to sell their coins all of a sudden. Most people here are smart enough to realize that speculators that publicize their predictions are usually sensationalist, and at the end of the day, no guarantees can be made regarding price speculation/prediction.

[exstasie]

What are the actual verifiable arguments based on verifiable evidence to predict the future price of Bitcoin?

Nothing is ever verifiable when it comes to markets. Technical and fundamental analysis are not sciences. Even if a prediction turns out correct, it could be by pure luck rather than the prediction's reasoning. There are thousands or even millions of variables that can affect markets at any one time, and it's impossible to account for them all.

The best you can do is back-testing (indicators, chart patterns, etc). That'll help you narrow things down to probability, but you'll never know for sure why anything happens in a market.

When there is a bull market, no matter how much bad news is floating around, the price will be in an uptrend the majority of the time. When there is a bear market, no matter how much good news is around, prices will usually be stagnant/going down. That's just the nature of the bitcoin markets. It moves in cycles.

I think that applies to all markets.

[Slow death]

What are the actual verifiable arguments based on verifiable evidence to predict the future price of Bitcoin?

I do not know if this will satisfy you, but my point of view goes the regulation is the only factor that is making the price does not rise and even this is causing the price to fall. Before people from many places could buy bitcoin without problems, but in the present day things have changed, when you have many central banks of many countries telling their people to take care of investments of risks like bitcoin and in some extreme cases these same ones banks prohibit the purchase of bitcoin so you're scaring a lot of people and many people will give up buying bitcoin.

[Aveatrex]

There are lots of threads where people predict that Bitcoin will go up in price, or go down in price. Many of these simply claim that to be true without actually giving any reasons. Sometimes it's just based on the poster's feeling or unexplained belief.

What are the actual verifiable arguments based on verifiable evidence to predict the future price of Bitcoin?

I believe Bitcoin will go down this year,as Bitcoin lost investors trust after the big crash from ~20k$ to 7k-10k,alot of people lost money because of that crash and will not put their feet again on Bitcoin.Bitcoin has to build back investors trust that's why I'm saying that 2018 is a bad year for Bitcoin,maybe 2019 or 2020 will be a better year.

[Febo]

There are lots of threads where people predict that Bitcoin will go up in price, or go down in price. Many of these simply claim that to be true without actually giving any reasons. Sometimes it's just based on the poster's feeling or unexplained belief.

What are the actual verifiable arguments based on verifiable evidence to predict the future price of Bitcoin?

I believe Bitcoin will go down this year,as Bitcoin lost investors trust after the big crash from ~20k$ to 7k-10k,alot of people lost money because of that crash and will not put their feet again on Bitcoin.Bitcoin has to build back investors trust that's why I'm saying that 2018 is a bad year for Bitcoin,maybe 2019 or 2020 will be a better year.

Yes and it still losing them. More and more people are selling Bitcoin now. and that will continue till end of year and also in next year. Those that will stay in Bitcoin will buy those coins.   In 2020 this will be first people to return.

[bitcoin31]

There's no people can really know what is really possible to the bitcoin price. Maybe after few months the price will decrease or it will increase.

It depends to the investor if they buy more bitcoin or not. Ofcoarse the only who can manipulate bitcoin price is only the investors which is us.