The 2 Big Historical Bitcoin Breakouts Coming

[toknormal]

Hi

It seems intuitive that there are 2 big Bitcoin price breakouts at hand.

************* [1] - the last big manual breakout done by individuals ***************

I predict that there is some mileage left in the price driven by the current "geek sector" - i.e. individuals investing in Bitcoin with their own cash and who can be bothered with all the crap to do with wallets, private keys, negotiating exchanges on their own etc.

This will be driven by 3 things:

a) - shaking off the 'China Syndrome' PBOC bank and exchange restrictions and whotnot

b) - various favourable press including large retailers accepting bitcoin, New York hearings which was basically a beauty parade of bitcoin entrepreneurs, prospect of institutional investment in cryptocurrencies and a general consolidation of value

c) - stock market jitters or outright collapse. Up until now, the worldwide low interest rate policy combined with huge money printing has pumped the stock market up to kingdom come. It's peak days are now moving into the rear view mirror and there's nowhere for the money to go. Cryptocurrencies provide a perfectly poised crash landing pad for cash jumping from the burning aeroplane that is the worldwide fiat currency crisis being lead by Turkey, Argentina, Japan and followed soon by the US and Europe


************* [2] - the first big auto-breakout breakout done by institutions ***************

For this one, we just need to sit back and watch. It will not involve wallets or unplugging your network cable while typing your encrypted drive password or heart attacks while checking block explorer for your withdrawals or scouring rubbish dumps for old hard drives that got accidentally binned or alarm clocks in the middle of the night to check if the 1 hour MACD has crossed over or chAngIng-YoUr-ex$hAnge-p%ssw0rD_to.A=verY_c0mpL|kaTed_oNe.

Bitcoin will be just another stock code - an institutional investment offering manifesting itself as a range of vehicles such as ETF's or private investment trusts.

To me it looks like these are actually on the boil for this year. Breakout [1] looks like taking the valuation to between $1500 and $5000, at which point the big boys will do the "right, we'll take it from here" and push the price to the $10,000 upwards range. (Or if you want to dream Max keiser style, straight to 6 figures).

That's my forecast and I'm sticking it up here so I can come back and check it in 12 months and see if I should change career or stick with the day job

Good luck to all whether you prefer all in btc, pump-&-dump-alts, pump-&-hold-alts, btc with a smattering of instamine-scam (my personal favourite), all in instamine-scam or simply all in dogue-&-cat !!

The real adventure will be watching the world economy change in front of our eyes I think. I remember around 1992 when I was clueless as to what an email address was. I remember when airlines started taking web bookings and people thinking it was "quaint".

For me, watching history unfold will be worth more than any bank balance.

[robboman]

Very good analysis, it's pretty much how I see it. Interesting write up, thanks for this!

[Dalmar]

US dollar has only been gaining value the past few weeks. Trend could continue as more money is pulled out of emerging markets and FED printing reduces with the new chairwoman.

PS. Max Keiser is a known pump and dump con man. He was still hyping silver on the peak of the bubble. No economist takes him serious.

[thebanker28]

Great analysis.  I really cannot wait to see institutional money coming in and see how it will all play out.  Even Max Keiser is being somewhat conservative this year; on his twitter he feel BTC will reach 50bn market cap which means $3500-$4000/BTC.  Good luck to us all.

[Dalmar]

Great analysis.  I really cannot wait to see institutional money coming in and see how it will all play out.  Even Max Keiser is being somewhat conservative this year; on his twitter he feel BTC will reach 50bn market cap which means $3500-$4000/BTC.  Good luck to us all.

"If the choice for the regulator is to permit money-laundering on the one hand, or permit innovation on the other, we are always going to choose squelching money laundering."
--Benjamin M. Lawsky

Dream on... US will eventually go the China path and ban financial institutions in dealing with bitcoin.

[chessnut]

Great analysis.  I really cannot wait to see institutional money coming in and see how it will all play out.  Even Max Keiser is being somewhat conservative this year; on his twitter he feel BTC will reach 50bn market cap which means $3500-$4000/BTC.  Good luck to us all.

"If the choice for the regulator is to permit money-laundering on the one hand, or permit innovation on the other, we are always going to choose squelching money laundering."
--Benjamin M. Lawsky

Dream on... US will eventually go the China path and ban financial institutions in dealing with bitcoin.

it's really not that simple......

Bitcoin is like Napoleon, it will divide and conquer.

Many great powers have fallen over history to unforeseen reasons, like rome.

Bitcoin will bite the USA where it hurts.

[coinpharmer]

this is how i feel as well, and those new to bitcoin should read for sure.  i bet for teenagers bitcoin is practically intuitive though, not "geeky". so i see that as another big jump in value in addition to what you list.

[pietje]

One thing is for sure. With bitcoins, its never boring.

[GigaCoin]

US dollar has only been gaining value the past few weeks. Trend could continue as more money is pulled out of emerging markets and FED printing reduces with the new chairwoman.

PS. Max Keiser is a known pump and dump con man. He was still hyping silver on the peak of the bubble. No economist takes him serious.

I disagree, silver and gold both tanked despite demand exceeding supply, it was clear manipulation. CHINA and INDIA were at record buying levels, it wasnt just max keiser BTW, every single major commodity investors were shocked at the crash as it made no sense considering QE and inflation. Also ppl forget about the gold reserves that dissapeared.

I don't need anyone to tell me paper money is loosing value when groceries and cost of living are going up on monthly basis.

[billyjoeallen]

US dollar has only been gaining value the past few weeks. Trend could continue as more money is pulled out of emerging markets and FED printing reduces with the new chairwoman.

PS. Max Keiser is a known pump and dump con man. He was still hyping silver on the peak of the bubble. No economist takes him serious.

Dollar strengthening may be good for bitcoin. Dollar strengthening is the same as other fiat currencies weakening. One way to protect against that is to trade those other currencies for bitcoin. Even if those BTC are traded back into dollars, the dollar price can't be driven down by that action any farther than it was driven up in the first place. Given dollar strength, demand for BTC outside of the U.S. will increase, which will drive up the price everywhere.

P.S. Janet Yellen is a known print and print counterfeiter. She was still hyping housing at the peak of the bubble. No Austrian economist takes her seriously. but let's say I'm wrong and she stops "easing". What do you think will hold it's value better, houses or silver? Keiser may be wrong, but he's much much less wrong than Yellen.

[wobber]

Great analysis.  I really cannot wait to see institutional money coming in and see how it will all play out.  Even Max Keiser is being somewhat conservative this year; on his twitter he feel BTC will reach 50bn market cap which means $3500-$4000/BTC.  Good luck to us all.

I can't see it going more than 1200 (on Bitstamp). And current stagnation makes me really think we could drop lower. Volume is crappy low.

[podyx]

Great analysis.  I really cannot wait to see institutional money coming in and see how it will all play out.  Even Max Keiser is being somewhat conservative this year; on his twitter he feel BTC will reach 50bn market cap which means $3500-$4000/BTC.  Good luck to us all.

I can't see it going more than 1200 (on Bitstamp). And current stagnation makes me really think we could drop lower. Volume is crappy low.

calm before storm

[ErisDiscordia]

Well said, OP!

For me, watching history unfold will be worth more than any bank balance.

glad to see there's more people feeling like this!

[wobber]

I think we will hit $10k alot sooner than people think.

Alot of people use Gox as a leading price indicator . . whether this is good or bad is not the point right now...  Things like CNBC... Bloomberg ticker.. etc all use Gox/USD.   Another point I'd make is that if Gox starts to rally to new ATH's.. Stamp and BTC-e will follow.

Now, Gox IMO is absolutely Primed to go to new ATH's.

Why ? You may ask.

Well;
1) There is only very small USD (if any) coming out of Gox... this leads to a massive 'fiat support' on Gox..
2) There is dwindling amount of BTC on Gox. .  with people 'unsure of Gox' and such, alot of BTC has moved to other exchanges.

Already we can see BTC for sale on Gox is getting lower.. . and as the price starts to rally, people hold strong and sell's get pulled...  This make's it rise faster...  

I think people wish for too much. So many news in the media but price still stagnates. Bloomberg ticker is here for a while, no influence.

And Gox, Gox is a shithole, a zero-sum game. I'm serious when it comes to money. Gox dollars have no more value than Second Life dollars.

[toknormal]

I think people wish for too much. So many news in the media but price still stagnates. Bloomberg ticker is here for a while, no influence.

I was thinking this too. So much news and no movement.

On the other hand, it was only 12 weeks ago that the price was $200. The cryptocurrency infrastructure does move but not as fast as the price. They are out of sync (the cryptocurrency infrastructure and the price) because most of the price rise was speculation - albeit well founded speculation.

It's a fact that "reality" has some catching up to do. We are not yet anywhere near mass adoption. No-one really knows how all this is going to go.

See what happens in Argentina this week.

[tabnloz]

Agree with the OP.

Getting up to the 800-1200 range has been solely on the backs of the early adopters.

The next jump should be due to the bigger players getting involved with btc as part of their portfolio.

The interesting thing for me is that we haven't had a real panic / stock market drop over the last year. BTC has risen in a rising stock market and a time where 'recovery' gets thrown about a lot, however bullshit it is. Now that btc is getting noticed in the MSM, a good old correction should see a big influx into btc.

Also, I think we should all be cheering on the naysayers and the MSM when they are negative on bitcoin. Long may it continue because eventually they desensitize the public and just become the Boy That Cried Wolf, ie people realise eventually that bitcoin isnt evil / for drugs / will be stolen and that there is no reason to be scared of it.

[Bitbuy]

Great analysis.  I really cannot wait to see institutional money coming in and see how it will all play out.  Even Max Keiser is being somewhat conservative this year; on his twitter he feel BTC will reach 50bn market cap which means $3500-$4000/BTC.  Good luck to us all.

I can't see it going more than 1200 (on Bitstamp). And current stagnation makes me really think we could drop lower. Volume is crappy low.

calm before storm

Yes, but the spread between the two exchanges continues to remain high; and volume low. So February might be an uneventfull month going sideways.

[windjc]

Great analysis.  I really cannot wait to see institutional money coming in and see how it will all play out.  Even Max Keiser is being somewhat conservative this year; on his twitter he feel BTC will reach 50bn market cap which means $3500-$4000/BTC.  Good luck to us all.

I can't see it going more than 1200 (on Bitstamp). And current stagnation makes me really think we could drop lower. Volume is crappy low.

calm before storm

Yes, but the spread between the two exchanges continues to remain high; and volume low. So February might be an uneventfull month going sideways.

Looks like a safe bet.  Just seems like the fundamentals are trying to catch up to the price and that's going to take some time. Almost everyone on here is a bear short term. If it wasn't for that I might be a full on bear myself.

There is a crap ton of money on the sidelines, enough to take us to ATHs tomorrow but it is probably going to sit and wait around for cheaper coins. It will take fresh fiat to get the market moving in a sustained manner upward again and right now that isn't going to happen fast enough. Until we have an easier way for people to buy bitcoin in mass and/or we get the investment vehicles and regulations set up for mass investment, Bitcoins got some catching up to do.

[Bitbuy]

Looks like a safe bet.  Just seems like the fundamentals are trying to catch up to the price and that's going to take some time. Almost everyone on here is a bear short term. If it wasn't for that I might be a full on bear myself.

There is a crap ton of money on the sidelines, enough to take us to ATHs tomorrow but it is probably going to sit and wait around for cheaper coins. It will take fresh fiat to get the market moving in a sustained manner upward again and right now that isn't going to happen fast enough. Until we have an easier way for people to buy bitcoin in mass and/or we get the investment vehicles and regulations set up for mass investment, Bitcoins got some catching up to do.

yes exactly. Bitcoin is still an infant; given the necessary time, it'll grow