$820 - $810 on Bitstamp!?

[MatTheCat]

I have been watching some whale have three ~ 160 BTC tranches on the Bitstamp Bid wall, presumably in order to strengthen 'buying' psychology. The upper 160 tranche would hop scotch about, always keeping a few sizeable bid orders in front of it.......

....and then FKN WHAM!

a 513 BTC order smacked into Bid wall taking it right down to 810 and then 10 seconds later a 253 order smashed into Ask Wall taking price back up to 815.

Wtf is going on here? Are two rival whales playing chicken with one another? One wanting to push or hold the price in one direction, the other in the opposite direction?

[fr33d0miz3r]

Wtf is going on here? Are two rival whales playing chicken with one another? One wanting to push or hold the price in one direction, the other in the opposite direction?

Beginning of an uptrend with some resistance.

[jballs]

Limited experience with btc but IRL we have a standing rule that any market will move toward the size. It is counterintuitive but the bulk of volume comes in bursts, we know this, so if you want to bait the market higher you are actually better off dangling a sell order far enough away to cancel it. algos are helpful for that. And yes someone probably saw the same amatuer move you did and decided to slap them and make a few bucks. I would have done same.  

[Peter R]

I have been watching some whale have three ~ 160 BTC tranches on the Bitstamp Bid wall, presumably in order to strengthen 'buying' psychology. The upper 160 tranche would hop scotch about, always keeping a few sizeable bid orders in front of it.......

....and then FKN WHAM!

a 513 BTC order smacked into Bid wall taking it right down to 810 and then 10 seconds later a 253 order smashed into Ask Wall taking price back up to 815.

Wtf is going on here? Are two rival whales playing chicken with one another? One wanting to push or hold the price in one direction, the other in the opposite direction?

This outlines the flaw in your "whale manipulation theory":  there's always a bigger whale.

[MatTheCat]

This outlines the flaw in your "whale manipulation theory":  there's always a bigger whale.

Well done for being the only reply to this thread that made any sense.

[fr33d0miz3r]

This outlines the flaw in your "whale manipulation theory":  there's always a bigger whale.

Well done for being the only reply to this thread that made any sense.

Are you still SHOTRING? 

[MatTheCat]

This outlines the flaw in your "whale manipulation theory":  there's always a bigger whale.

Well done for being the only reply to this thread that made any sense.

Are you still SHOTRING?  

No.

Since Bitfinex stopped allowing me to route stop losses through Bitstamp, and then the stop loss on what should have been a cracking short was blatantly farmed, pushing Bitfinex up to its high in doing so, I have removed all funds from Bitfinex and will not be using the exchange again.

No other shorting exchanges that I am aware off.

Limited experience with btc but IRL we have a standing rule that any market will move toward the size. It is counterintuitive but the bulk of volume comes in bursts, we know this, so if you want to bait the market higher you are actually better off dangling a sell order far enough away to cancel it. algos are helpful for that. And yes someone probably saw the same amatuer move you did and decided to slap them and make a few bucks. I would have done same.  

You would have done the same!? You don't even know what you are talking about m8, but 3/10 for at least trying to sound like a pro trader.

P.S. I never made any move. I was sitting on a 20 BTC long since $814. I had a stop loss set up using QT-Trader. My stop rule should have been triggered but I still have all my coins. Right in the bin with QT-Trader!

[smoothie]

Price has been trapped in a range around $800, slowly sliding from $1000 over the past few weeks.

I still think we will see some downside in the next 4-6 weeks. Put a bottom in and then start slowly the next bull leg up.

[MatTheCat]

Price has been trapped in a range around $800, slowly sliding from $1000 over the past few weeks.

I still think we will see some downside in the next 4-6 weeks. Put a bottom in and then start slowly the next bull leg up.

Yes. That explains entirely the two whales (or who knows, maybe it was just one) moving hundreds of BTC worth of funds around the Bid wall before a multiple hundred BTC order smashed right into it.

[smoothie]

Price has been trapped in a range around $800, slowly sliding from $1000 over the past few weeks.

I still think we will see some downside in the next 4-6 weeks. Put a bottom in and then start slowly the next bull leg up.

Yes. That explains entirely the two whales (or who knows, maybe it was just one) moving hundreds of BTC worth of funds around the Bid wall before a multiple hundred BTC order smashed right into it.

Longer term I am a bull but I believe we have not worked off all of the downside/sell offs entirely. We may see $600 by early to mid March. Time will tell.

[MatTheCat]

Longer term I am a bull but I believe we have not worked off all of the downside/sell offs entirely. We may see $600 by early to mid March. Time will tell.

Yes. You are in the same camp as I am except I suspect that there might be much more of a bloodbath than $600. That don't even touch the 200 day MA!

However, this thread wasn't about the 'dramatic' drop in Bitcoin price, but more about how it happened. This wasn't market forces, but the hands of just two, or maybe even just one 'heavy weight'.

I watched it play out and funnily enough, when I was watching the 160 Bid tranches hop around, I thought to myself, "I would love the power to be able to to take this fkn joker right out", and then someone did....and it hurt me.

I have had enough of this for now....horrible horrible manipulated market.

A bad day at the office. Think I will bow out trying to trade for now. Shorting option has been broken and Bitstamp is a fkn awful platform to try and trade on...even when trading long.

[coinpharmer]

Longer term I am a bull but I believe we have not worked off all of the downside/sell offs entirely. We may see $600 by early to mid March. Time will tell.

Yes. You are in the same camp as I am except I suspect that there might be much more of a bloodbath than $600. That don't even touch the 200 day MA!

However, this thread wasn't about the 'dramatic' drop in Bitcoin price, but more about how it happened. This wasn't market forces, but the hands of just two, or maybe even just one 'heavy weight'.

I watched it play out and funnily enough, when I was watching the 160 Bid tranches hop around, I thought to myself, "I would love the power to be able to to take this fkn joker right out", and then someone did....and it hurt me.

I have had enough of this for now....horrible horrible manipulated market.

A bad day at the office. Think I will bow out trying to trade for now. Shorting option has been broken and Bitstamp is a fkn awful platform to try and trade on...even when trading long.

you sound frustrated, holding is much more relaxing.  <3 =) <3    that said im extreamly bearish at the moment. my fiance was trying to buy some at 710  but couldnt yet due to coinbases rules. i told her dont worry about it, we should see prices there again soon....   dammit we better! shes glaring at me every morning like its my fault bitcoin is going up.   CRASH CRASH BITCOIN this house needs to see 710 again! =)

[DPoS]

I think microtransactions like the chicago paper will bring the price up but retailers adding bitcoin will bring more sell pressure

(ie: people can cash out in items, not really going to cashout a lot on content, but many people buying a small stash of btc for content is bullish)

among other things of course.. lots of stuff swirling around these days

[MatTheCat]

you sound frustrated, holding is much more relaxing.  <3 =) <3    that said im extreamly bearish at the moment. my fiance was trying to buy some at 710  but couldnt yet due to coinbases rules. i told her dont worry about it, we should see prices there again soon....   dammit we better! shes glaring at me every morning like its my fault bitcoin is going up.   CRASH CRASH BITCOIN this house needs to see 710 again! =)

I reckon you will get your 'wish' soon enough....and then some.

[jballs]

Limited experience with btc but IRL we have a standing rule that any market will move toward the size. It is counterintuitive but the bulk of volume comes in bursts, we know this, so if you want to bait the market higher you are actually better off dangling a sell order far enough away to cancel it. algos are helpful for that. And yes someone probably saw the same amatuer move you did and decided to slap them and make a few bucks. I would have done same.  

You would have done the same!? You don't even know what you are talking about m8, but 3/10 for at least trying to sound like a pro trader.

Eh, ok. I've actually been trading for almost 20 years, 15 of it professionally (and some of those years net negative, humble grows on you after awhile if you survive). I have written a couple books on the subject. Short term trading is extremely difficult. But two things. First, like I said market will trade towards size. Pay attention you will see it, if you have growing bid or ask positions that's a little different. If you have outsized positions at a price level the market will tend to trade towards it. If it's some clown trying to build size where there is no organic support or resistance, the best thing to do is run them over and cover your own position on the momentum from other traders buying/selling the move. We call it scalping, if you can see it, what makes you think anyone else can't.

As for "whales", 500 lot BTC is ~$400k face value. That is a 4-lot bond futures. Less than 4-lot gold, less than 5-lot crude I very seldom trade positions that small on a short time frame.  And I really don't mean to brag, because most traders in my ballpark don't trade that small. This is a very small sandbox. You guys wait til the institutional money shows up if you want action.

I do enjoy following along. I am just long holding in crypto land for the most part. I don't much like the exchanges in their current incarnations.

Good luck.

[smoothie]

Longer term I am a bull but I believe we have not worked off all of the downside/sell offs entirely. We may see $600 by early to mid March. Time will tell.

Yes. You are in the same camp as I am except I suspect that there might be much more of a bloodbath than $600. That don't even touch the 200 day MA!

However, this thread wasn't about the 'dramatic' drop in Bitcoin price, but more about how it happened. This wasn't market forces, but the hands of just two, or maybe even just one 'heavy weight'.

I watched it play out and funnily enough, when I was watching the 160 Bid tranches hop around, I thought to myself, "I would love the power to be able to to take this fkn joker right out", and then someone did....and it hurt me.

I have had enough of this for now....horrible horrible manipulated market.

A bad day at the office. Think I will bow out trying to trade for now. Shorting option has been broken and Bitstamp is a fkn awful platform to try and trade on...even when trading long.

$600 was being conservative. Perhaps it may go lower...who knows.

[billyjoeallen]

Price has been trapped in a range around $800, slowly sliding from $1000 over the past few weeks.

I still think we will see some downside in the next 4-6 weeks. Put a bottom in and then start slowly the next bull leg up.

Yes. That explains entirely the two whales (or who knows, maybe it was just one) moving hundreds of BTC worth of funds around the Bid wall before a multiple hundred BTC order smashed right into it.

Longer term I am a bull but I believe we have not worked off all of the downside/sell offs entirely. We may see $600 by early to mid March. Time will tell.

You really wanna take that bet with all that tax refund money pouring into the exchanges? You think Cypress was the only reason for last April's rally?

[MatTheCat]

Eh, ok. I've actually been trading for almost 20 years, 15 of it professionally (and some of those years net negative, humble grows on you after awhile if you survive). I have written a couple books on the subject. Short term trading is extremely difficult. But two things. First, like I said market will trade towards size. Pay attention you will see it, if you have growing bid or ask positions that's a little different. If you have outsized positions at a price level the market will tend to trade towards it. If it's some clown trying to build size where there is no organic support or resistance, the best thing to do is run them over and cover your own position on the momentum from other traders buying/selling the move. We call it scalping, if you can see it, what makes you think anyone else can't.

As for "whales", 500 lot BTC is ~$400k face value. That is a 4-lot bond futures. Less than 4-lot gold, less than 5-lot crude I very seldom trade positions that small on a short time frame.  And I really don't mean to brag, because most traders in my ballpark don't trade that small. This is a very small sandbox. You guys wait til the institutional money shows up if you want action.

I do enjoy following along. I am just long holding in crypto land for the most part. I don't much like the exchanges in their current incarnations.

Good luck.

Fair enough.

I have heard this counter-intuitive rule which states that 'the market moves towards the heaviest side of the order book' but have found that sometimes it does, sometimes it doesn't. Prior to the previous downslide, the Ask wall was towering above the Bid wall. Certainly when the market was sliding, the heaviest side of the order book occurs on the side in which the market is not moving. The market stops sliding when it hits a Bid wall large enough to absorb the selling pressure, which is often found 'erected' around important support levels.

I don't know if what happened here can be considered scalping as such. I can't prove it, but I suspect that the recent upwards momentum has been largely fabricated by those with enough capital and BTC to push it up as I otherwise sense no organic support for pushing this market higher at this point in time. Now, regardless of how big or little you think 500K worth of BTC is, anyone who can play this game with those size of chips would have to be considered one of the bigger fish to say the very least. As I stated, I was sitting observing this joker shifting these 160 BTC buy tranches around the Bid wall, trying to push steep Bid wall up to spot price. I also noticed a 199 BTC Ask offer hovering around on other side of order book,  and then WHAM! A 500 BTC order smashes into Bid wall taking two of the 160 BTC strong 'chips' with it, then 10 seconds later a 250 BTC order smashes into Ask wall. Presuming that there was just two whales at play here (or perhaps only one), there can't have been more than 80-120 BTC worth of of Joe Bloggs' BTC trades that got caught up in this move. Which means roughly, one whale sold 500 BTC between prices of 820-810 (bulk between 816-812), and then bought 250 at 814.99 precisely! Without getting out the calculator, it is clear that things don't make sense here in that they don't add up, at least not with a profit at the end of it, regardless of who made which moves.

When you trade 4-lot bond futures, 5-lot crude or gold, is it your own capital? If so, then why not just retire and live the good life. If 500K was the size of one of my trading chips, I know for sure I wouldn't be sitting crouched around a computer monitor doing that shit.

[DPoS]

think of it this way..  say a few whales in an exchange make up 80% of the $$$ and coins in that exchange.. say there is 10 times more coins than their $$ value of cash as well

so what is a whale to do?   churn churn churn selling to yourself and grab as much new guppy money as you can regardless of the price.. these whales have like a cost basis of $1 or less on their coins and you keep thinking they are buying at $815 and selling $813 or something

But you should just tack on any short term loss of a few dollars onto their cost basis of $1 so even if they lose $5 on a trade their cost basis is really $6 on the trades that are with the new money guppies

and then if the coins start to crash, just buy a pile of them up to reflate and recharge

the whales came to the exchanges with coins, not fiat...

  

[MatTheCat]

the whales came to the exchanges with coins, not fiat...

Which makes the likes of me an absolute tube for coming to the exchange with fiat, and not coins?

Seriously, what measures can there be to prevent Bitcoin from just being operated as a long drawn out whale fiat fattening scheme?

Is the much talked about institutional finance, the big money that is supposedly going to take Bitcoin to a bazillion USD, really going to be naive or willing enough to jump right into the whales feeding games. It dont matter how much money these big players have. If the acquisition of Bitcoins is king, then the whales are holding all the cards and could take the Wall St boys to the cleaners. Could this really happen!?