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Author Topic: [2018-06-11]Just Diversify? With Crypto Portfolios, It's Not So Simple  (Read 36 times)
Portal_Network
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June 11, 2018, 04:41:31 AM
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Tanzeel Akhtar is an independent British journalist whose work has been published in the Wall Street Journal, CNBC, FT Alphaville, Investing.com, Forbes, Euromoney and Citywire.

With over 1,560 cryptocurrencies for investors to choose from, the abundance can seem overwhelming.

But it also raises an interesting question: How important is it to have exposure to a range of cryptocurrencies? Is it worth diversifying your holdings in order to mitigate risk? The work of Harry Markowitz might lead you to think so.

The Nobel Prize-winning economist, author of the classic 1952 article "Portfolio Selection," devised modern portfolio theory (MPT), which stresses that diversifying assets is crucial. I you diversify enough, you will make risk go away and get the mean. Time and time again, Markowitz's research has shown that investors can assemble the perfect portfolio.

Indeed, recently published research by the Bocconi Students Investment Club at Bocconi University in Milan, Italy, showed that applying the MPT framework to crypto beat all other portfolios, at the cost of a greater volatility.

The investment club wrote:

"Our findings, consistently with MPT, are that portfolio variance can be significantly lowered by exploiting low covariances between coins."

In this way, it's a validation of the idea that 50 to 60 percent of a crypto portfolio should be core holdings of the two largest coins by market capitalization, bitcoin and ether. Alternatives, the thinking goes, should be added only after.

Jeffrey Van de Leemput, a co-founder of Cryptocampus, a crypto mentoring group, says diversifying your portfolio is very important. Not only will this mitigate risk but it can also substantially increase the reward factor of a portfolio.

"Personally, I like having 80 percent large caps and 20% small caps mixed in for performance," says Leemput.

All go down together
But this risk mitigation strategy may be hard to pull off in crypto. When we saw the price of bitcoin plummet earlier this year, it dragged all the other cryptos' prices down too.

Hence, some disagree with Markowitz's theory, or at least its applicability to the brave new world of cryptocurrency.

Dejun Qian, founder of the FUSION Foundation, a public blockchain project, says diversification could help to increase the possibility of finding a good bet. He warns that in this market, 90 percent of the projects will die in the future. Diversifying will help us to capture that 10 percent.

The fun part is hunting for those golden nuggets -- the initial coin offering (ICO) tokens and small caps that you believe will have the potential to succeed in the long run. But in most cases, diversification doesn't help with limiting risks because cryptocurrencies have repeatedly entered periods where they move in tandem, Qian said.

And it bears repeating that in this market the risk is high and crypto investing is not suitable for every investor. Do your own research.

That includes at least entertaining the arguments of so-called maximalists, who claim that there can only be one winner in cryptocurrencies (whichever one they've invested in, naturally), because money relies on network effect.

Maximalists can be rude and clannish, especially on Twitter, but that doesn't mean they're wrong. And if they're right, diversification is just "spraying and praying."

See more: https://www.coindesk.com/just-diversify-crypto-portfolios-not-simple/
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June 11, 2018, 03:25:09 PM
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From my observations, most altcoins and tokens tend to perform negatively in their BTC value, so it's a bad idea to hold big portfolio of alts for years. Many of them show clear bubble cycle dynamic, so if you want to go long with some popular alts, you should try to catch the depression phase of the cycle and sell at the peak of a bubble.

Also, the article doesn't explain why cryptocurrencies so often move together. The reason for that is because Bitcoin dictates the trend for the whole market, some think that it's already irrelevant because its market share is at 35%, but every Bitcoin price movement is immediately mirrored by all altcoins, because they are mostly traded against BTC. So, if you want to be an altcoin trader, you have to be a Bitcoin trader in the first place.

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June 11, 2018, 05:27:55 PM
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From my observations, most altcoins and tokens tend to perform negatively in their BTC value, so it's a bad idea to hold big portfolio of alts for years. Many of them show clear bubble cycle dynamic, so if you want to go long with some popular alts, you should try to catch the depression phase of the cycle and sell at the peak of a bubble.

Also, the article doesn't explain why cryptocurrencies so often move together. The reason for that is because Bitcoin dictates the trend for the whole market, some think that it's already irrelevant because its market share is at 35%, but every Bitcoin price movement is immediately mirrored by all altcoins, because they are mostly traded against BTC. So, if you want to be an altcoin trader, you have to be a Bitcoin trader in the first place.

I think that the main purpose of bitcoin is to be an investment safe heaven with stable increasing value in the long run,while all the altcoins are created for day trading and pump&dump.
Diversification in the crypto market is kinda impossible.The only good portfolio is 50% BTC for long term HODLing and 50% in the Top 10 altcoins for day trading.

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June 11, 2018, 06:58:56 PM
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From my observations, most altcoins and tokens tend to perform negatively in their BTC value, so it's a bad idea to hold big portfolio of alts for years. Many of them show clear bubble cycle dynamic, so if you want to go long with some popular alts, you should try to catch the depression phase of the cycle and sell at the peak of a bubble.

Also, the article doesn't explain why cryptocurrencies so often move together. The reason for that is because Bitcoin dictates the trend for the whole market, some think that it's already irrelevant because its market share is at 35%, but every Bitcoin price movement is immediately mirrored by all altcoins, because they are mostly traded against BTC. So, if you want to be an altcoin trader, you have to be a Bitcoin trader in the first place.
This is what most people do think on these days where bitcoin doesnt really have already the influence on the entire market due to that dominance thing but i agree on what you have said on here that prices would anytime be dictated on whats the current trend of bitcoin. Most of the time it do happens and i cant see an altcoin sustain a price rally while bitcoin is dumping. There might be some instances but majority are all heading the same trend with bitcoin.

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June 11, 2018, 09:15:21 PM
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It's obviously always good to have diversification within your portfolio.

I think that there is a misconception that if you diversify your crypto portfolio, it would be fine. Obviously you want to do that, but on the other hand, you'd also want to diversify your overall portfolio. i.e., you don't want to put all your money into crypto at once.

Bitcoin's price changes leads the market, and other cryptos usually follow suit.

That's why diversification in a crypto sense is more about finding hidden opportunities, instead of risk reduction. If there's a crypto bear market it's unlikely any crypto will move the other way round. Again, that's the reason why I think that you should have a healthy balance between crypto that you want to hold for the long term, and other assets, such as precious metals, emergency fiat savings, real estate, etc.

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