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Author Topic: [2018-06-11]Tone Vays: Bitcoin Hitting $4975 Is ‘Most Optimistic’ Bear Market  (Read 117 times)
Diabolov
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June 11, 2018, 01:39:12 PM
 #1

Well-known analyst Tone Vays has likened Bitcoin to how it was in 2014, as prices hit multi-month lows of $6668.
‘It’s Been A Long Time’

Uploading technical forecasts for BTC/USD on social media Sunday, Tone Vays — who has produced multiple warnings about a bear market for the leading cryptocurrency in previous months — reiterated his “most optimistic” bear target below $5000.

“It has been a long time since I’ve posted a $BTCUSD chart like this,” he wrote in an accompanying commentary, continuing:

    …My most optimistic Bearish (Bitcoin) target remains at $4,975 first half of July. I will update my % expectation on future targets once it’s hit.
A Torch For 2014

Traders appeared surprised at the extent of Bitcoin’s sudden fall over the weekend, while other cryptocurrency industry figures claimed news that a South Korean exchange had lost funds to hackers was being oversold by markets.

For Vays, too, the hack has little effect on long-term fundamentals — which for him constitute a repeat of Bitcoin’s behavior after it hit previous highs in late 2013.

Not just price, but relative strength index (RSI), moving average convergence/ divergence (MACD), and Stochastics confirm the trend and “put the (Bitcoin) outlook identical to late (August) 2014,” he said.

Initial reactions to the reemergence of the prospect that Bitcoin could fall below $5000 for the first time since October 2017, meanwhile, focused on mainstream perception.

As publications including Bloomberg and The Wall Street Journal report the exchange hacking narrative had caused mass sell-offs, Vays assumed that a further “halving” of prices would see fresh calls that Bitcoin, as one Twitter user described the situation in 2014 after Mt. Gox, “has no future.” Vays added:

    Just wait a month or two, if BTC is half the price it is now, you will hear all of that again.

http://bitcoinist.com/tone-vays-bitcoin-hitting-4975-optimistic-bear-market-price-outlook/
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June 11, 2018, 05:28:34 PM
Merited by hatshepsut93 (1)
 #2

Please, lower your predictions people. The sooner the average joes do that, the sooner we can reverse. Currently we are experiencing the exact opposite -- the hopes for a return to peak levels is still thriving and very much spreading like a virus due to all the empty bullish predictions we are being flooded with. It's the media as a whole being responsible for that. They know exactly how to troll the gamblers in the crypto space. Isn't it obvious already that with so much hype around bullish predictions the market isn't doing shit? Don't follow the mainstream media that knows nothing about crypto. Wake up....
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June 11, 2018, 08:05:01 PM
 #3

Thanks for the article.

 I think this is just FUD due to hack and will pass away infew days and we will see gains by end of the June. 5.5k seems probable.

Can you please suggest me good material in C++ for Blockchain?
I want to learn about how to fork the network & create similar Chain
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June 11, 2018, 08:58:06 PM
 #4

He's a well known bear. It's not like he was talking about a fall to 5k since last week. I've seen his opinions being reposted months ago and he actually was saying that it's going to fall to 3k back then. Does it really matter? These guys are all looking at the previous charts and trying to predict if people will hold or not based on what they were doing in 2014... In a huge developing market like this one it's completely useless. In 2014 we had china trading and mining, but we didn't have Japan and Korea. It's a different world.
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June 12, 2018, 01:33:12 AM
 #5

Please, lower your predictions people. The sooner the average joes do that, the sooner we can reverse. Currently we are experiencing the exact opposite -- the hopes for a return to peak levels is still thriving and very much spreading like a virus due to all the empty bullish predictions we are being flooded with. It's the media as a whole being responsible for that. They know exactly how to troll the gamblers in the crypto space. Isn't it obvious already that with so much hype around bullish predictions the market isn't doing shit? Don't follow the mainstream media that knows nothing about crypto. Wake up....

Hehehe do not blame the people's expectations if it becomes a prolonged the bear market. Many of us are nothing but longterm losers in this game.

Also before blaming the people, can you scientifically explain why the people's predictions are delaying the reversal?

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June 12, 2018, 10:13:02 AM
 #6

I wouldn't say that it's the most optimistic prediction, since there is still a possibility at this moment that $6k would act as the effective support and prices would simply not go down under that level during the bear market. It's possible, but unlikely.

On the other hand, I think that a level below $5k is pretty likely based off the sentiment of the market at the moment, and the fact that bear markets usually last for around 1-2 years before the recovery starts happening.

I'd agree with the comparison between this bear market, and 2014's bear market as well. It seems sensible, and even though everyone knows that past performance isn't going to be exactly in line with the present, bull markets have basically always emerged close to the halving event, and lasts until around 1 year after the halving. Cycles of BTC price movement are likely to be built on top of that, imo.
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June 12, 2018, 10:27:45 AM
 #7

We are waiting for all forecasts of the maximum bottom and is already going up. But let's get through all the statements do not panic. They're just waiting for us to leak and they'll buy from us and fly into space. Angry

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June 13, 2018, 01:27:24 AM
 #8

I wouldn't say that it's the most optimistic prediction, since there is still a possibility at this moment that $6k would act as the effective support and prices would simply not go down under that level during the bear market. It's possible, but unlikely.


Which is it? Will it go down under $6000 or not? I hate all these safe predictions from people who want to appear smart but does not risk of being wrong. Make a real prediction and tell us your opinion why.

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June 13, 2018, 02:08:50 AM
 #9

Based on my observation, when people predicts a very low price on bitcoin in a given period of time then that is the time bitcoin recovers or slowly goes up. I've seen analysis like this in Feb, March, and April and did not happen.
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June 13, 2018, 01:16:57 PM
 #10

Which is it? Will it go down under $6000 or not? I hate all these safe predictions from people who want to appear smart but does not risk of being wrong. Make a real prediction and tell us your opinion why.

I definitely understand your point, but it's not as easy as it may seem.

Right now we have a few important levels that might or might not act as base support levels.

$6000
$5500
$5000
$4000

You can only look further after we have broken through these base support levels one by one. In other words, the price can just as well remain above $6000 for ever, or fall back down all the way to $4000 at worst. Important is the difference between these levels. The speculation around the future markets had a massive impact on the market, and it kicked in somewhere below or just above the $4000 level.

If we are getting rid of the future market speculation levels, ~$4000 should be the bottom. If the market appreciates at least some speculative layers on top of itself, then we should bottom out well above $4000. This can be seen as an unsafe prediction. Smiley

My safe prediction is still $6000 as base.

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June 13, 2018, 02:26:44 PM
 #11

Please, lower your predictions people. The sooner the average joes do that, the sooner we can reverse. Currently we are experiencing the exact opposite -- the hopes for a return to peak levels is still thriving and very much spreading like a virus due to all the empty bullish predictions we are being flooded with. It's the media as a whole being responsible for that. They know exactly how to troll the gamblers in the crypto space. Isn't it obvious already that with so much hype around bullish predictions the market isn't doing shit? Don't follow the mainstream media that knows nothing about crypto. Wake up....

Sadly, many newbies are just impatient perma-bulls who think that Bitcoin will go to $1,000,000 in one straight line. This naive thinking is quite harming when they have to face the reality that Bitcoin prices have ups and downs and that crashes are often 10-15% and even higher. Many of them get very disappointed with these dips, to the point when they turn all their optimism into the opposite and decide to quit. I think abandoning emotions should be on of the first advices we give to newbies as this market is so stressful to them, especially since most newbies don't have any trading background.

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June 13, 2018, 05:15:39 PM
 #12

Also before blaming the people, can you scientifically explain why the people's predictions are delaying the reversal?

I don't think I'll be able to meet your scientific standards, but the most simple explanation is that market makers always bet against the sentiment. Right now people hold coins they bought during the rally and for that reason are waiting and hoping for a reversal. It means that there are more people waiting for an increase rather than actually contributing to that increase they are expecting. By having the sentiment change dramatically, which is happening with how the price is going down, the majority of the noobs will end up selling their coins to prevent further devaluation of their coins. It means that you artificially created a new source of capital that will help you inflate the next fomo run, and all other people that were waiting for a lower price to enter will bring in their capital as well. I think a dip under $6000 will be that last push....
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June 13, 2018, 05:20:38 PM
 #13

Thanks for the article.

 I think this is just FUD due to hack and will pass away infew days and we will see gains by end of the June. 5.5k seems probable.

Going below 6k itself seems to be difficult so forget about reaching anyway near 5k. I am buying on all the lows and when it shoots up will average out the price easily and will also get the good returns on the investment done. So better to start investing now rather than wait till the price which may not reach that low only.

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June 13, 2018, 05:35:48 PM
 #14

I think this is just FUD due to hack and will pass away infew days and we will see gains by end of the June. 5.5k seems probable.

This Korean hack? All of $40 million on an exchange most have never heard of? Sounds like a crock of shit.

I think he's right to say just under 5 grand is optimistic. I can well believe it'll be less. There's no will to maintain the current price. It's going to take some finding and it's going to be a fair bit lower from here.

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June 13, 2018, 06:03:06 PM
 #15

What's stopping some incendiary event from causing either a huge pump or huge dump, tomorrow, next week, in August or in the next 5 minutes? All predictions tend to make the "all things being equal" assumption, but there's no good reason not to expect surprises that completely derail any prevalent trends. Saying "we've been here before" in respect of long term trends is no less true than saying "we've been here before" in respect of sudden shocks.

Maybe the Chinese government will reintroduce crypto trading next week. Or maybe the EU will ban crypto exchanges tomorrow. No-one knows, but let's not forget that simple market cycles aren't the only factor.

Vires in numeris
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June 13, 2018, 06:21:38 PM
 #16

The situation is not pleasant, despair, pessimism became dominant on the market. Expectations, charts, technical analysis mean nothing to most people. For people like me who came into the market in December, January, the losses have now reached serious levels. Unfortunately, there is no other way to wait.

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June 14, 2018, 01:20:06 AM
 #17

Do not believe his predictions.
He always adheres to the current situation and gets bonuses on her.
He recently promised $ 100,000 in 2018. I remember this.
https://www.ccn.com/prominent-bitcoin-trader-price-is-heading-towards-100000-in-2018/

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June 14, 2018, 01:25:48 AM
 #18

Also before blaming the people, can you scientifically explain why the people's predictions are delaying the reversal?

I don't think I'll be able to meet your scientific standards, but the most simple explanation is that market makers always bet against the sentiment. Right now people hold coins they bought during the rally and for that reason are waiting and hoping for a reversal. It means that there are more people waiting for an increase rather than actually contributing to that increase they are expecting. By having the sentiment change dramatically, which is happening with how the price is going down, the majority of the noobs will end up selling their coins to prevent further devaluation of their coins. It means that you artificially created a new source of capital that will help you inflate the next fomo run, and all other people that were waiting for a lower price to enter will bring in their capital as well. I think a dip under $6000 will be that last push....

But how would you expect them to contribute to the next increase that everyone might be expecting if they have already contributed to the last rally and now they are bagholding on a loss and have no more left to contribute?

It was a very selfish comment to blame it on them. They already did their contribution and some traders already made money out of the contribution.

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June 14, 2018, 03:28:20 AM
 #19

Also before blaming the people, can you scientifically explain why the people's predictions are delaying the reversal?

I don't think I'll be able to meet your scientific standards, but the most simple explanation is that market makers always bet against the sentiment. Right now people hold coins they bought during the rally and for that reason are waiting and hoping for a reversal. It means that there are more people waiting for an increase rather than actually contributing to that increase they are expecting. By having the sentiment change dramatically, which is happening with how the price is going down, the majority of the noobs will end up selling their coins to prevent further devaluation of their coins. It means that you artificially created a new source of capital that will help you inflate the next fomo run, and all other people that were waiting for a lower price to enter will bring in their capital as well. I think a dip under $6000 will be that last push....
Quite a reasonable explanation of what can actually happen. Indeed, smart people who are now able to manipulate the crypto-currency market may well bet on squeezing from beginners who bought bitcoins at a high price in the first half of December last year and are expecting a sharp rise in the crypto-currency market, their expensive bitcoins. When they see that in the near future bitcoin, instead of rising in price, will reverse, fall, many of them will not survive and will sell their bitcoins even at the lowest price in order to at least get something out of them. This is quite logical, if such manipulations with the bitcoin price are possible.

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