2 months cycle

[antisocial77]

early of february and april btc price is almost same.after that, btc made profit about %30-40 in 15 days.now july and its similar.i expect the bull run in a couple days.

[1715632438]

1715632438

[1715632438]

1715632438

[1715632438]

1715632438

[1715632438]

1715632438

[franky1]

things that affect the bottom line/LOW of bitcoin value/pricing are categorised as cost of obtaining: (mining cost and buyers remorse)

i feel we have since october really tested the bottom line based on 'buyers remorse' support line. (those that buy at X but wont sell for less than X)

so now the only pressure on the bottom support line is mining cost.  thus if lots of cheaper rigs are used to replace old rigs, but hashrate doesnt climb much, we can see pricee remain slumped/low/drop because the miners have factored in that it costs them less to mine so willing to sell for less than top price

but if people are buying extra rigs to extend farms thus cause quick hashrate climbs to counter the cheaper rig costs. then we shall see a nice rise in support price

..
to explain better
look at charts.. draw a line between october and february.. cut off the hype mountain that was pure speculation. and wats left is a rough idea of true value.

right now there is a mining cost of around $6k-$9k depending on factors. which gave it the support levels of such.
now factor in that ASICS just got cheaper which is why the march-june period seen a dip into the lower range of 6-9k as some pools got to test out some cheaper rigs and so willing to sell coin for less than the 9k top 'value'
and factor in that others may also be expanding their farms with cheaper ASICS from june forwards so that effects the price support to..
which can cause more pressure on the bottomline.

the redeeming factor of a value bottomline support price rise is the hashrate. the higher the hashrate the more cost to mine blocks it will be. so look at the changes of the hashrate to see if VALUE will stay slumped or will move up quickly depending on how quicky the hashrate goes up to counter the new rig costs

rant:
ther are 2 types of price TA's:
technical analysis: taking current real world events and putting it into numbers
trend anals: fortune telling by palm reading old/existing charts and seeing triangles that you chose to draw, that have no meaning but pretend to look good

dont be a trend anal

now to those that cant quantify my explanation into maths. maybe technical analysis is not your speciality and you should avoid looking at charts.. and definetly dont bother thinking you will get future answers by looking at past patterns as thats worse then playing pin the tail on the donkey.

[strip66]

Usually the price will start climbing starting in August, especially later there will be World Cup events and Asian games, it will definitely have a big effect on crypto.

[knien]

things that affect the bottom line/LOW of bitcoin value/pricing are categorised as cost of obtaining: (mining cost and buyers remorse)

i feel we have since october really tested the bottom line based on 'buyers remorse' support line. (those that buy at X but wont sell for less than X)

so now the only pressure on the bottom support line is mining cost.  thus if lots of cheaper rigs are used to replace old rigs, but hashrate doesnt climb much, we can see pricee remain slumped/low/drop because the miners have factored in that it costs them less to mine so willing to sell for less than top price

but if people are buying extra rigs to extend farms thus cause quick hashrate climbs to counter the cheaper rig costs. then we shall see a nice rise in support price

..
to explain better
look at charts.. draw a line between october and february.. cut off the hype mountain that was pure speculation. and wats left is a rough idea of true value.

right now there is a mining cost of around $6k-$9k depending on factors. which gave it the support levels of such.
now factor in that ASICS just got cheaper which is why the march-june period seen a dip into the lower range of 6-9k as some pools got to test out some cheaper rigs and so willing to sell coin for less than the 9k top 'value'
and factor in that others may also be expanding their farms with cheaper ASICS from june forwards so that effects the price support to..
which can cause more pressure on the bottomline.

the redeeming factor of a value bottomline support price rise is the hashrate. the higher the hashrate the more cost to mine blocks it will be. so look at the changes of the hashrate to see if VALUE will stay slumped or will move up quickly depending on how quicky the hashrate goes up to counter the new rig costs

rant:
ther are 2 types of price TA's:
technical analysis: taking current real world events and putting it into numbers
trend anals: fortune telling by palm reading old/existing charts and seeing triangles that you chose to draw, that have no meaning but pretend to look good

dont be a trend anal

now to those that cant quantify my explanation into maths. maybe technical analysis is not your speciality and you should avoid looking at charts.. and definetly dont bother thinking you will get future answers by looking at past patterns as thats worse then playing pin the tail on the donkey.

Nice post sir.
I do think however that Technical analysis is some sort of self fulfilling prophecy.

If a lot of people are short term trading this way, everyone is looking at the same indicators and setting the same stopp loss orders etc.
This triggers big sell offs on certain price levels, dropping the price even further.
New investors panic and start selling too.
And the snowball effect is complete.

I believe that the huge volatility is partly caused by short term traders using the same TA indicators.

[Chanock]

early of february and april btc price is almost same.after that, btc made profit about %30-40 in 15 days.now july and its similar.i expect the bull run in a couple days.

Yeah! Right that the price of bitcoin movement is almost the same on February to April and nowadays the value of bitcoin is constantly falling. Possible the price of bitcoin will recover this coming next week and once it happen, the recovery of bitcoin will continue. If you remember last year bitcoin price buble start at late of July and early of August. Maybe possible this year the price buble of bitcoin start again this July or August but hopefully bitcoin price recover this month of June. If you always monitoring the treand of bitcoin price in the market cap it always repeated as a cycle and the price fall of bitcoin is normal hecause beyond that there has recovery period for it. Also this scenario is giving chance everyone to buy bitcoin at lower price.

[SONG GEET]

I don't think any particular month gonna affect the bitcoin price but yeah the end and early months of the year have same pattern in past. In trading past might not be repeated in future so price can even remain at current bear market at the end of this year. Increased regulation over crypto and panic among new investors in main reason behind the current dump on market.

[BitcoinNewbie15]

I don't think any particular month gonna affect the bitcoin price but yeah the end and early months of the year have same pattern in past. In trading past might not be repeated in future so price can even remain at current bear market at the end of this year.

While it is human nature to see patterns out of nothing, the patterns that traders see can essentially be a self-fulfilling prophecy. If all of the traders see the same pattern and agree on it, then all of the traders will react accordingly. Therefore the pattern becomes true due to the traders reacting to the pattern they thought they saw. An example would be traders looking at the chart and it being similar to 2014. Other traders agree so they decide to enter the market to buy and Hodl. This causes the price to increase and other traders FOMO in because the pattern is turning out to be repeating. Its a self-fulfilling prophecy.

Increased regulation over crypto and panic among new investors in main reason behind the current dump on market.

This is what is going to cause the price to dip in the short term. However, increased regulation for the crypto market paints a bullish future. Institutional investors will be more keen on diversifying into Bitcoin if they have regulatory clarity. Let the weak hands sell, Long-term is the game here.

[livingfree]

early of february and april btc price is almost same.

There's something positive happened early April, the price went up quickly and for sure there are happy takers who recently bought @$6,000 by that time because it went $8,000 if I was correct.

now july and its similar.i expect the bull run in a couple days.

Before we're saying that this June is the expected come of the bull run and now it will be on July? I'm still patient waiting for that bull so if there's something about 2 months cycle, it doesn't matter for the holders.

[kastara]

Almost everyone who wants to sell bitcoin expect Bitcoin to get better every day and how about people who invest in bitcoin and buy bitcoin certainly investors are hoping Bitcoin down, so for me the ups and downs of Bitcoin prices are common in cryptocurrency.

[rommelzkie]

early of february and april btc price is almost same.

There's something positive happened early April, the price went up quickly and for sure there are happy takers who recently bought @$6,000 by that time because it went $8,000 if I was correct.

now july and its similar.i expect the bull run in a couple days.

Before we're saying that this June is the expected come of the bull run and now it will be on July? I'm still patient waiting for that bull so if there's something about 2 months cycle, it doesn't matter for the holders.

Dude we cannot say that bitcoin will surely go up in the next 2 months. We are sitting on 6,500 bitcoin price level and we are still on a bearish trend. The chances are still high for bitcoin to go lower and lower.

The best thing to do is wait and take an action if the bitcoin price goes against you.

[Wexnident]

early of february and april btc price is almost same.after that, btc made profit about %30-40 in 15 days.now july and its similar.i expect the bull run in a couple days.

Yeah! Right that the price of bitcoin movement is almost the same on February to April and nowadays the value of bitcoin is constantly falling. Possible the price of bitcoin will recover this coming next week and once it happen, the recovery of bitcoin will continue. If you remember last year bitcoin price buble start at late of July and early of August. Maybe possible this year the price buble of bitcoin start again this July or August but hopefully bitcoin price recover this month of June. If you always monitoring the treand of bitcoin price in the market cap it always repeated as a cycle and the price fall of bitcoin is normal hecause beyond that there has recovery period for it. Also this scenario is giving chance everyone to buy bitcoin at lower price.

I think that it's cycle is really repeatedly. So in that case I think there is nothing to be worried about and the experiencing downfall as of now is just only a part of it's normal cycle. I believe that bitcoin will again rise and meet it's recovery in the next few days so we better keep holding on and soon we will be happy because the bull run is coming.

[pooya87]

there are no cycles when you look deep in why the price moved the way it did at that particular time. there is almost always some reason for it and rarely it goes up and down without a reason.
for example you say February and April prices are almost the same, last year price was on the rise in February and would have been sitting at $2000 by April if it wasn't for the FUD. the reason why you see the drop there and you see the same price as February in April is because the drama about splitting bitcoin and killing it started and caused a lot of panic and the whales like always used it to manipulate hence the March 10 weird candle where orders were cleaned up in less than a minute and the weak hands always follow and crash the market.

[sakahayang]

early of february and april btc price is almost same.after that, btc made profit about %30-40 in 15 days.now july and its similar.i expect the bull run in a couple days.

Bull will happen in July, you see the movement of BTC graphics circulation in the last year with the now year. the movement of btc charts will always be the same every year. then you should be more careful in making decisions

[Df9898]

the cycle of the bitcoin is quite good because the value is stable.

[aleksnutis]

early of february and april btc price is almost same.after that, btc made profit about %30-40 in 15 days.now july and its similar.i expect the bull run in a couple days.

In the bitcoin movement there is no systematic and even periods, you can't rely on it. But the price is attractive for a set of positions, I more believe in the subsequent growth than the fall.

[zinluzgina]

In February, the price did not fall below 6400, and it lasted just a few hours. And today, all day bitcoin falls and falls. I think that bitcoin will continue to fall to the level of 4000-4500, and then the trend will begin to unfold. Bulls will come

[dothebeats]

Patterns and trends are great for short-term market movements and all, but if you try to use the same patterns in a different time-frame, or even describe/generalize the overall trend for a certain time, it wouldn't make sense since these patterns don't live for long, or don't repeat itself always no matter how similar market conditions are. Simply put, patterns and trends aren't everything, as it still boils down to the willingness of buyers to pay for a certain price and the willingness of the sellers to sell at a certain price until they agree to make the transaction. In the crypto market, it's no different; people try to make analysis by looking at charts, creating some patterns and predicting a trend from there without even considering the market conditions on its minute scale: the buyers and sellers. Don't get too caught up in studying patterns and trends since in the cryptomarkets, these aren't happening too often.

Right now, the price is hovering @ $6300-$6400, while the price in February is close, the current market sentiment is still negative so there's a high chance that we'll be playing on this field for quite some time unlike in Feb wherein a fast rebound happened. Positive press and news don't seem to help as well, so most probably we're in for another gloomy month and if it continues up to Q3, no highs will be achieved even at the end of the year.

[PsylockReborn]

early of february and april btc price is almost same.after that, btc made profit about %30-40 in 15 days.now july and its similar.i expect the bull run in a couple days.

I guess by September there will be a huge bounce. This is the moment where in people starts to purchase a lot of btc hoping that history will repeat itself just like what happened last year. I guess we need to take advantage of today's value of bitcoin for it will surely increase by the end of the year up until the end of the next year's bitcoin halving. Weak hands at this point in time will always be the losers and whales are just laughing at them for doing a stop loss. If you truly believe in the technology then you go hodl.

[hasmukh_rawal]

early of february and april btc price is almost same.after that, btc made profit about %30-40 in 15 days.now july and its similar.i expect the bull run in a couple days.

You may be right. This is how BTC had been working since a few years. It goes down and then aims for a bounce back with higher force.
It did the same thing last year too. The prices were going up and then suddenly it went down a bit. Later it skyrocketed and came to an ATH.
I expect this price to stay the same until this weekend and then later we may see a spike in Bitcoin's price.
According to me, the price of BTC will cross $12k until September of this year.

[livingfree]

Dude we cannot say that bitcoin will surely go up in the next 2 months. We are sitting on 6,500 bitcoin price level and we are still on a bearish trend. The chances are still high for bitcoin to go lower and lower.

The best thing to do is wait and take an action if the bitcoin price goes against you.

That's what I'm saying that it doesn't matter for holders and predicting that there's something to come for the next 2 months, I'm not that kind of person to believe that easily. Just a small correction, we're now sitting at $6,200 and there's a chance that it will go deeper and deeper for the next days but I don't wish it to happen. Like what I said, I've been waiting for the bull run and if OP found something interesting about 2 months cycle that's giving me some hope but still I don't want to hope that much.