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Author Topic: Inversed behaviour?  (Read 1333 times)
wobber
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September 18, 2011, 10:43:24 PM
 #1

We saw a fall, then a stagnation at about $4.70. Will it go up to 6, maybe $7 again, then fall back to $4? Bitcoin has to weed out speculators before a new, huge rally.

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bcforum
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September 19, 2011, 02:37:33 AM
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It's not going to go up until there is something to spend bitcoins on. Right now the miners are selling to pay electric bills (and QQ'ing the low price), but there are very few speculators willing to buy.

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September 19, 2011, 03:08:41 AM
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I know this makes no sense, this is just an observation, but the price behaves like this sentient being intent on screwing me over.  Me personally, when I have very little money but this price just behaves, as strange as it seems, like it's out to get me as opposed to some rich person with lots of bitcoins and money.  I've lost faith in bitcoins and won't be buying any till they come down to $3.  I was planning on investing long term in bitcoins, but I don't plan on it unless it's $1-2 so I know it will finally stop dropping.  No way I want it to take 50-99% of my money by crashing to nothing after I bought a lot.

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September 19, 2011, 03:32:32 AM
 #4

What if it starts going up again and never touches the low single digits?

(I dont always get new reply notifications, pls send a pm when you think it has happened)

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September 19, 2011, 03:37:09 AM
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it means minsc has sold  Wink
rezin777
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September 19, 2011, 03:40:17 AM
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I know this makes no sense, this is just an observation, but the price behaves like this sentient being intent on screwing me over.  Me personally, when I have very little money but this price just behaves, as strange as it seems, like it's out to get me as opposed to some rich person with lots of bitcoins and money.  I've lost faith in bitcoins and won't be buying any till they come down to $3.  I was planning on investing long term in bitcoins, but I don't plan on it unless it's $1-2 so I know it will finally stop dropping.  No way I want it to take 50-99% of my money by crashing to nothing after I bought a lot.


No offense, but it sounds like you shouldn't play the market. I am in the same boat, although maybe for different reasons. Usually the market does exactly what I think it shouldn't. If I try to use that to my advantage, the market will double back and trick me again. So, I don't play the market.

Bitcoin is amazing in my opinion. I see a lot (A LOT) of people on this forum who are intent on trashing Bitcoin. I've never experienced anything like that before, and I don't know what to make of it either. I don't understand how someone (not you, I'm ranting at this point) who dislikes something so much manages to become a senior members on a forum discussing said thing. For example, I dislike Harley Davidson Motorcycles. Yet you will never find me joining a Harley forum and racking up 250-500 posts attempting to explain to the members how annoying and possibly dangerous their bikes are. But this is exactly the type of behavior we have with Bitcoin. Why?

Bitcoin was worth $0.40 when I first got involved. At the time, I started by mining. I am as excited about Bitcoin today as I was then. For what it's worth, I've never exchanged a Bitcoin for another currency. Sometimes I imagine how I could have sold at the peak, bought back now, and increased my Bitcoin holdings by a large percentage. But hindsight is 20/20 and I'm certain there is no way I would ever make money playing the market. I leave that to the pros. If you can make money timing the market, you deserve it.

Do I ever plan on exchanging Bitcoins for another currency? Only if my survival depends on it. Probably no. Am I a madman on a sinking ship? Perhaps, but I believe the ship to be sound and I stand by that.

A good amount of shit has landed on the Bitcoin community, yet the block chain itself is strong and continues on.
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September 19, 2011, 03:50:10 AM
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Same thing happens to me when i play the market. I think I have figured a reason why guys like us always get screwed.

It is a simple reason, there are smarter and more sophisticated investors that have the resources, money and technology, to know what the average investor (you and me) is thinking and will do and knows how to make (take) money from us.

They are smarter and they will almost always win. They have the money to move the market where they want. You can't beat them, they know yours and the markets psychology very well.

Well hope this is understandable and makes sense.



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September 19, 2011, 03:59:56 AM
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It is a simple reason, there are smarter and more sophisticated investors that have the resources, money and technology, to know what the average investor (you and me) is thinking and will do and knows how to make (take) money from us.

They are smarter and they will almost always win. They have the money to move the market where they want. You can't beat them, they know yours and the markets psychology very well.

Maybe, but my bet is actually it's related to a panic reaction. You buy when it's on it's way up because you are panicing that you will miss out and you sell on the way down because you are panicing that you will get caught in a major loss (you've already held into a loss hoping it will turn back up). Both are actually very natural emotional responses to the circumstances but logically, if something has gone up a lot, then it doesn't have far to go before it stalls, and if something has fallen a lot, it has more potential to rise.
rezin777
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September 19, 2011, 04:10:27 AM
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You buy when it's on it's way up because you are panicing that you will miss out and you sell on the way down because you are panicing that you will get caught in a major loss (you've already held into a loss hoping it will turn back up). Both are actually very natural emotional responses to the circumstances but logically, if something has gone up a lot, then it doesn't have far to go before it stalls, and if something has fallen a lot, it has more potential to rise.

So right now I should sell gold and buy Bitcoins?
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September 19, 2011, 06:43:36 AM
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Same thing happens to me when i play the market. I think I have figured a reason why guys like us always get screwed.

It is a simple reason, there are smarter and more sophisticated investors that have the resources, money and technology, to know what the average investor (you and me) is thinking and will do and knows how to make (take) money from us.

They are smarter and they will almost always win. They have the money to move the market where they want. You can't beat them, they know yours and the markets psychology very well.

Well hope this is understandable and makes sense.




You have to take a meaning full amount of money and be willing to lose it. But the objective at first is not to make money. Your main aim should be to educate yourself in trading. I lost quite a few bucks on my first trades not only in the stock market but in Bitcoins as well. But that forced me to pay more attention to what I was doing. I knew the night the mybitcoin news came out I should have sold all of my coins and was lazy, I think i read the news 3 minutes after it was posted.

One thing I can tell you I have been doing is not going all in or all out, stop thinking black and white, there are lost of shades of gray. I always keep some cash on hand to buy if the price get cheaper. And if it goes up ill sell a few. This way you dont really care as much what way the price goes.

Either way bitcoins are a blast all these crazy mother fuckers just coming out of the wood work to scam, argue, profit and invent. What I have not made in cold hard cash I have gotten in entertainment value. There nothing that polarizes people so much, you would think we are debating Pro-Choice/Life, I mean where else can you find one guy who thinks its worthless and the guy next to him thinks its worth 10K each.
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September 19, 2011, 07:38:34 AM
 #11

There nothing that polarizes people so much, you would think we are debating Pro-Choice/Life, I mean where else can you find one guy who thinks its worthless and the guy next to him thinks its worth 10K each.

I'm willing to bet the guy who thinks they're worth $10k each is sitting on a pile of bitcoins and wants to cash out into the derided fiat currencies that many bitcoin boosters hate so much.

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wobber
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September 19, 2011, 07:41:22 AM
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I wonder how many bitcoins has the richest bitcoin owner.

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September 19, 2011, 07:45:34 AM
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I wonder how many bitcoins has the richest bitcoin owner.
There are guesses that Satoshi owns 0.5-1.5 million BTC, as he mined from the beginning, and difficulty was 1 for a whole year.

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Minsc
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September 19, 2011, 06:17:39 PM
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it means minsc has sold  Wink

I refuse to ever buy it again until it drops to the $3s.

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September 20, 2011, 10:17:48 AM
 #15

it means minsc has sold  Wink

I refuse to ever buy it again until it drops to the $3s.

Here's some advice that works for me.  Keep in mind I started Bitcoining right after the Mt. Gox crash and I've done quite nicely since.

This is a "safe" method that won't make you $ every day, but when you do profit, you profit rather nicely.

Keep an eye on your exchange's charts and place a buy order for almost all of your USD $.50-$1 below the current price.  Keep your bids on psychological barriers (e.g. $4, $4.50, $5, $5.50,) but add another penny or 2 (e.g. $4.02, $4.52, $5.02, $5.52).  At some point, especially if you use Mt. Gox or TradeHill, someone will come along and dump a few hundred/thousand coins all at once.  

If your buy order is large enough, the market will bounce off your buy order and within 5-10 minutes it'll be right back where it was.  Then you sell everything (or, if you're feeling lucky, hold onto them if you think the market will continue to go up).  Then repeat.  This little technique usually earns a profit close to 10% of total holdings on every trade.

The one thing to be careful of is the removal of very large buy-walls or HUGE sell-offs.  For this reason, I'll usually stick my bids 50 cents below current price during the day and $1 below when I sleep.  But, I've had several mornings where I've woken up and been like "HELLLL YEAHHH!"  It's a great way to start the day.

Edit:  I don't try to hit the peaks and valleys...I AM the peaks and valleys...sometimes.  This is all very generalized but you get the idea.

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