HODLers or Tether - who do we blame?

[phillymogul]

A new study says "Tether Used to Manipulate Price of Bitcoin During 2017 Peak"
Tether, one of the most-traded cryptocurrencies, shows a pattern of being spent on Bitcoin at pivotal moments..
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-06-13/professor-who-rang-vix-alarm-says-tether-used-to-boost-bitcoin

And then another study says HODLers started the decline and then continued to sell into the dip.
Bitcoin Price Decline Caused by Hodlers’ Unprecedented $30 Billion Sell-Off: Research
https://www.ccn.com/bitcoin-price-decline-caused-by-hodlers-unprecedented-30-billion-sell-off-research/

The common ground is both groups wanting to cash out IMO.

So who do you guys blame?

[cellard]

You can't blame it into a single trigger, there are many reasons. At the end of the day, the $20k peak went out of hand, it could have gone higher, it could have reached a lower price, at the end of the day the price went parabolic and often these moves result in strong corrections.

Due the nature of Bitcoin being a new asset class, it will be even worse and people go to the extremes (FOMO or panic selling), as years go by and assuming nothing wrong happens with the fundamental technology, these swings will be smaller in % long term as price grows.

Tether will always remain a risk (price wise) as long as the USD is accepted to buy things, including Bitcoin. If the USD can be printed at will, then Tether can be printed at will even easier. That doesn't change the fundamentals in Bitcoin.

[butka]

These are normal things, part of the normal market cycles, so you should blame no one. That being said, no doubt there are big players on the market affecting some of these price changes of Bitcoin. As for Theter, I'm also not surprised. The researchers from the first linked article managed to find correlation between Tether issuance and the upward movement of bitcoin price. So this suggests that USDT was being used to buy cheap BTC and thereby pump the price of BTC as a result of their actions. I doubt that the real HODLers are in the decline though.

[bitmover]

These are normal things, part of the normal market cycles, so you should blame no one. That being said, no doubt there are big players on the market affecting some of these price changes of Bitcoin. As for Theter, I'm also not surprised. The researchers from the first linked article managed to find correlation between Tether issuance and the upward movement of bitcoin price. So this suggests that USDT was being used to buy cheap BTC and thereby pump the price of BTC as a result of their actions. I doubt that the real HODLers are in the decline though.

No regulation has its disadvantages, such as this Tether and Bitfinex price manipulations.
THe market still needs to mature a lot. Cryptocurrencies are a long term investment.

We still need some regulation, better and safer wallets for newbies, better exchanges. Also the technology itself still has a lot to develop.

It´s hard but I am trying not to look to much at the prices.

[BTCLovingDude]

why should you even blame anyone? it is the same market dynamics that has been going on for 9 years or have you not looked at the charts before?
we have had the same ups and downs every time there is a big rise.

A new study says "Tether Used to Manipulate Price of Bitcoin During 2017 Peak"

that is not a "study" it is more of like a FUD and it is not new. this has been the discussion for a very long time.
the fact is tether is shady as hell and it may have contributed to bitcoin rise but without it price would have risen anyways. for example if USDT never existed price might have gone up to $16k instead of $19.6k!

And then another study says HODLers started the decline and then continued to sell into the dip.
Bitcoin Price Decline Caused by Hodlers’ Unprecedented $30 Billion Sell-Off: Research

this here is pure bullshit. that is not even a "research".

[franky1]

tether is only useful as a method to arbitrage 'dollar' between exchanges. thus instead of a price rise happening on one exchange. and it taking old wire transfer 3-5 business days to move dollars across to impact other exchanges. tether can do it in seconds/minutes.

but.. guess what. people were arbitraging before tether. i was doing it in 2012 between exchanges.
we just used a different alt as the dollar substitute
it was not manipulation. it was just being faster than FIAT swift network
arbitraging happens every day and its legal and standard practice for traders.

so its not tether thats to blame. its the fact that its easier to arbritrage price movements across exchanges in crypto.. its faster than standard fiat world

as for hodlers.. you cant blame them either.
if you look at the cost of mining. which depending on electric and generation of asic used is $6k-$9k region roughly per btc.. the price has NOT tanked below a healthy cost of creating btc.

so although there may be many holders(including myslf) that have coin from as far back as 2012, it doesnt show that people are willing to sell all the way back down to 2012 prices. (yep even i still have my hoard from 2012, i didnt sell)
the 6month low has remained above cost of mining minimum. so it has shown very good support.

once you cut away the very temporary speculative drama that caused the hype bubble of october/december. and then realise the january-february was a COREECTION and not a 'loss'.. you will see a healthy VALUE line for 2018 of $6k+

[pxo.011]

blame those fud new sources and spreader they are the reason of panic sell and those fool easily believe without proper research. i have no idea about tether by the way thank you for the sources.

[tunapa]

I think all this is just about manipulation, no one can be blamed for fall in price of Bitcoin. Everyone is trying to be on safe side and do what's best for them. The price rise was too massive, the 20k peak was a hit that couldn't be sustained and then it started rolling down. At this moment , every investor and trader will either try to sell off or tether to cut losses. So no one is really to be blamed. 

[butka]

tether is only useful as a method to arbitrage 'dollar' between exchanges. thus instead of a price rise happening on one exchange. and it taking old wire transfer 3-5 business days to move dollars across to impact other exchanges. tether can do it in seconds/minutes.

I see your point and I agree. But what about the allegations that they used to be issuing USDT when the price of BTC was down (most of the time) and were then buying cheap BTC. I have no idea how the things with Tether work, I mean, who decides if they will "print" more USDT, when, and how.

if you look at the cost of mining. which depending on electric and generation of asic used is $6k-$9k region roughly per btc.. the price has NOT tanked below a healthy cost of creating btc.

This is an interesting point I've never really considered. Is there an estimate of what the margins for the miners are? If the average cost to mine 1 bitcion is really between $6K and $9K, some of them are currently mining at a loss. 

[talkbitcoin]

the problem with most people is that they want to blame someone else for the mistakes they make. this is always intensified during the drops like this. manipulation has existed forever and it is not just for bitcoin! the thing is, it is never as big as people show it to be.

not just that, but if you know there is manipulation then why not take advantage of it? for example if you think Tether is the reason for the rise then why did you buy bitcoin? greed or ignorance? or if you think it is HODLers or whatever who are dumping the price then why don't you buy bitcoin now? more greed or idiocy?

[towi078]

Does that mean, is there a manipulation of bitcoin prices? But I think that's impossible, I do not know. Maybe I do not understand all that ...

[Tankdestroyer]

Does that mean, is there a manipulation of bitcoin prices?

There is but it is not done by Tether developers or HOLDers themselves. The ones who might be pulling the string are those with enough money to pay reporters to spread FUDs about bitcoin.

The common ground is both groups wanting to cash out IMO.
So who do you guys blame?

Both groups are free to do so and we should not blame them, I myself will dump bitcoin at low prices now if I bought it at sub 1000$ below. Rather than blaming them, I'd say that the current price drop was inevitable because everyone cannot cash out at the same time at high prices near the peak.

[coinwizard_]

It's a combination of many factors such as fear of regulation and mt gox dumping too many bitcoins on the exchanges. Hacked exchanges didn't help the situation and then panic sellers decided to cash out.

[alyssa85]

Bloomberg says the press is misinterpreting the professor:

https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2018-06-15/bitcoin-manipulation-study-is-less-than-it-seems

University of Texas at Austin finance professor John Griffin and graduate student Amin Shams just posted a paper suggesting that cryptocurrency prices are manipulated.  The paper has received a great deal of attention in the media, but there is a disconnect between the paper and the press coverage in terms of quantification.

For example:

The authors suggest the cryptocurrency exchange Bitfinex buys bitcoin with another cryptocurrency -- tether -- to push up Bitcoin prices. How much? Four basis points per 100 bitcoin. With Bitcoin at $10,000, for example, that means Bitfinex spends $1 million to push the price up to $10,004.

The authors assert that the purchases are not random in that they occur more often after Bitcoin prices have fallen. How much? After the biggest drops in Bitcoin price, 1  Bitfinex buys 72 extra bitcoin. More than 100,000 Bitcoin frequently trade in an hour, and often much more during periods of high volatility.

The authors examined the 87 hours with the largest flows of bitcoin and tether and found that the hours following them accounted for 50 percent of the "meteoric rise" in bitcoin. That sounds impressive, but the rise over the period discussed was from about $1,000 to $8,000. The authors used compounded returns, which mean returns in those 87 hours averaged 1.2 percent. For the S&P 500 Index, a 1.2 percent move is a big hour. For Bitcoin, not so much.

[tablow]

No one is responsible,just panic seller

[jhache]

Neither tether is to blame nor holders. I can't understand how hodlers are to be blamed here, in fact they are the ones who decrease the selling pressure from the market and cause a opposite effect and increase the buying pressure. These dumps are done by the whales to manipulate the markets so that week hands sell their coins into their bags.

[bitfocus]

neither of them, blame those Sharks and stupid gamblers.

[franky1]

if you look at the cost of mining. which depending on electric and generation of asic used is $6k-$9k region roughly per btc.. the price has NOT tanked below a healthy cost of creating btc.

This is an interesting point I've never really considered. Is there an estimate of what the margins for the miners are? If the average cost to mine 1 bitcion is really between $6K and $9K, some of them are currently mining at a loss. 

yes they are mining at a loss in some places. which is why if you check some of the charts. some locations with high electric have turned off a few rigs.
but some will still mine even at a loss, because they just hold for a long time due to paying lectric as a yearly contract so dont need to cash out instantly

some pools with low electric and are using the new gen asics have added more(20% in some cases) and making profit even at this mis $6k range of prices.
but that only accounts to at most 1800btc a day of support line. however before october there were 16+m coins in circulation and it seems the majority are refusing to sell below the $6k bottom line that begane in october 2017. and that $6k line has been tstd many many times and people have had ample oppertunity to sell down if they wanted to. which shows that the 'churn' from old buy to new buyer has already occured of those willing to sell below $6k and now the holders are happy to hold above $6k and wont sell for less

[minersday]

I think that both of them are guilty, but holders who have been in here for more than years have nothing to do with the actual state of bitcoin at the moment.

[StarKay]

You don't have to blame the hodlers who believed it is the best time to cash out their investment and I don't see how Tether should be blamed either.
This is a decentralized market meaning their is no central authority so you/I can't blame anyone but ourselves.