Next pulse prediction

[Joohansson]

If you compare the last nov-jan pulse to the mar-may pulse, you could see that they are quite similar.


Just for fun, if you make a mathematical prediction of next pulse by interpret those two pulses as a serie, what would you get? What amplitude and at what time? If someone would be bothered to do that, please share. I know, it's probably totally meaningless, but many functions in nature are connected to perfect mathematics in the end, even stuff that we humans think are totally random. Anyway, this could be fun if the prediction turns out to be true.

[vokain]

This has been the crash pattern since every bubble and crash we've had here

[Joohansson]

This has been the crash pattern since every bubble and crash we've had here

True, but those two are the only really large ones in bitcoin history, right?

[yayayo]

Being mathematically predictable and being "connected" are two totally different things.

If you want to do an arbitrary prediction take current price times 10 and you've got the next target. But it is really quite ambitious to interpret any kind of "pattern" based on the subjective selection of two specific price movements in the past.

But hey, speculation is fun!

ya.ya.yo!

[Dalmar]

Bitcoin is now more on the radar of central banks than in mid-2013.. The so-called war against banksters/governments start playing out in 2014 and it could turn ugly.

[thezerg]

My experience is that Bitcoin infrastructure improvements do not seem to significantly affect the price, short term.  It takes an external event -- 2011 media exposure, Cyprus, China media exposure.  So the timing is very difficult predict.

Don't worry that all this amazing news about BTC -- ATMs deployed, positive US testimony, fortress ETF, (EDIT: overstock, tigerdirect & gyft) etc -- has had little or no effect.  When the next fiat shock comes BTC will be ready!

http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20140131-708113.html

[Ozymandias]

This has been the crash pattern since every bubble and crash we've had here

True, but those two are the only really large ones in bitcoin history, right?

Those two are nothing compared to April-June 2011, there was some real pain in the ensuing bear market, none of that "oh noes, my money is only worth what it was worth yesterday/last week/last month"

[pera]

This has been the crash pattern since every bubble and crash we've had here

True, but those two are the only really large ones in bitcoin history, right?

Those two are nothing compared to April-June 2011, there was some real pain in the ensuing bear market, none of that "oh noes, my money is only worth what it was worth yesterday/last week/last month"

Exactly. I wouldn't call these "pulses" a pattern, actually, I wouldn't even say that the first "pulse" in 2013 is similar to this one.

[sgbett]

This has been the crash pattern since every bubble and crash we've had here

True, but those two are the only really large ones in bitcoin history, right?

these were pretty big...

http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#czsg2010-09-15zeg2011-01-04ztgSzm1g10zm2g25zcv

http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#czsg2010-12-17zeg2011-04-07ztgSzm1g10zm2g25zcv

[JimboToronto]

This has been the crash pattern since every bubble and crash we've had here

True, but those two are the only really large ones in bitcoin history, right?

Those two are nothing compared to April-June 2011, there was some real pain in the ensuing bear market, none of that "oh noes, my money is only worth what it was worth yesterday/last week/last month"

+1

Last winter/spring's bubble saw the price rally by 2000% and crash by 80%. Last autumn's bubble saw the price rise by 1000% and crash by 60%.

The great bubble of 2011 saw the price rally by 3000% and crash by over 90%.

Even the flash crash of Oct 2010 saw the price fall from over $0.11 to $0.01, a drop of over 90%.

The bubbles seem to happening more frequently, but with less intensity.

[xDan]

The bubbles seem to happening more frequently, but with less intensity.

Even the bears now know the only way is up, and we're all left to arguing about the speed.

[BitchicksHusband]

I think it has more to do with the availability of fiat to buy bitcoins.  I predicted a crash starting the second week of December and lasting through Christmas.  Why?  Because people are not going to buy bitcoins when they need to buy Christmas presents.

Similarly, the huge runup last year was in March/April.  This is when people in the US get their tax returns, which is usually a decent chunk of money because of the way the IRS requires payments and makes it hard to try to calculate exactly.  So most families end up with several thousand dollars of fiat in March/April.  I again expect people to invest in bitcoin in those months just like last year, because they will have money available to invest.

[matt608]

I would guess the next 'pulse' or major step up will be triggered by a few more banks turning bitcoin friendly.  Maybe one larger bank will go bitcoin friendly and that will get everyone excited and we will over shoot ourselves again, in the usual fashion.  It just seems like we're moving through the 'regulation phase' into the 'bank-conversion to the bitcoin side of the force phase.'

Of course there will be loads of other things going on too, but banks starting to co-operate more is the next big step in my eyes.

[podyx]

wouldnt the next price pulse would be wall street and trust funds?? and maybe india jumping on the train

[matt608]

wouldnt the next price pulse would be wall street and trust funds?? and maybe india jumping on the train

Wall street could be a big part actually, I'm not very about India yet though.

[yayayo]

wouldnt the next price pulse would be wall street and trust funds?? and maybe india jumping on the train

Wall street could be a big part actually, I'm not very about India yet though.

India as a whole is not ready for it. Maybe the elites, but not the broader population.

I think before the next wave we will see at least another half year of stagnation. Keep in mind that greater adoption (i.e. the general population) requires far easier access. The tools for this are not yet available.


ya.ya.yo!

[Joohansson]

I know, this thread is quite stupid, but I still want to guess just for fun that next big peak will be in august 2014 based on a simple 7 month interval. I think the price will hit $2500.

[TERA]

This will be our first rally without that whacky mtgox trading system. So it may be less volatile just for that reason, with a shorter and more controlled rise followed by a lesser crash.

[N12]

This will be our first rally without that whacky mtgox trading system. So it may be less volatile just for that reason, with a shorter and more controlled rise followed by a lesser crash.

You think Bitcramp and BTC-Pee are any less whacky? Bitstamp had a nice trading bug just recently, and BTC-E had the price flash crashing to 100. Pretty sure what we have now is no bit better than Emptygox was.

[Vigil]

This will be our first rally without that whacky mtgox trading system. So it may be less volatile just for that reason, with a shorter and more controlled rise followed by a lesser crash.

I can see the fall being more controlled, but I don't see the rise being any shorter.