Bullish Strategist Tom Lee Blames Bitcoin Futures for Recent Market Sell-Off

[bbc.reporter]

Can anyone explain why there is a correlation between the bitcoin futures' expiration and the sell off of real bitcoins?

Is the connection a real one or is this only one of those market conditions that go away after the general feeling on the market has changed?



The co-founder of Fundstrat Global Advisors and outspoken crypto bull Tom Lee blames Cboe futures for Bitcoin’s recent sell-off.

In a new note to investors, Lee wrote “Bitcoin sees dramatic price changes around Cboe futures expirations,” reports CNBC. “This was something flagged by Justin Saslaw at Raptor Group. We compiled some of the data and this indeed seems to be true. Overall, bitcoin has fallen 18 percent in the 10 days prior to CBOE contract expiration.”

Cboe futures expired Wednesday, as the price of BTC fell to $6,300 – its lowest level since February. Today Bitcoin rebounded and is currently up more than 5% on CoinMarketCap.

As for the future price of Bitcoin, Lee is still as bullish as ever, with his end-of-the-year price target locked at $25,000.

Read the full article https://dailyhodl.com/2018/06/14/bullish-strategist-tom-lee-blames-bitcoin-futures-for-recent-market-sell-off/

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[davis196]

I think that Tom Lee is incompetent,but I agree that bitcoin futures have some impact that pushes the bitcoin prices down.Why don`t we do something to force CME to cancel BTC futures trading.Maybe write a petition or
raise awareness.How come btc futures trading is still allowed,but the US authorities think that the BTC market is manipulated.It`s absurd to trade futures for an asset, that is known for it`s price manipulations.

[The Sceptical Chymist]

Why don`t we do something to force CME to cancel BTC futures trading.Maybe write a petition or
raise awareness.

Why?  I'm pretty much a proponent of free markets, and derivatives is a part of that, like it or not.  It's also a natural extension of what's become a very popular asset--bitcoin.  Futures in bitcoin were bound to come along sooner or later.

LOL at writing a petition to get bitcoin futures eliminated.  That's not gonna happen.  I don't think petitions are effective for even the most noble of causes, and this isn't one of them.  I don't see any reason why we should be seeking to do away with more ways to trade bitcoin.  Just because you can trade a derivative of an asset doesn't mean the market is manipulated.  Precious metals whackos have been crying foul for the same reason for many years--probably ever since gold & silver futures hit the market.

[bbc.reporter]

I think that Tom Lee is incompetent,but I agree that bitcoin futures have some impact that pushes the bitcoin prices down.Why don`t we do something to force CME to cancel BTC futures trading.Maybe write a petition or
raise awareness.How come btc futures trading is still allowed,but the US authorities think that the BTC market is manipulated.It`s absurd to trade futures for an asset, that is known for it`s price manipulations.

But how does the bitcoin futures market have an impact? Is it psychological, coincidence, or something else? I reckon it should have an impact if there are real bitcoins delivered after the contracts expire. But there is none. The futures market is more the same to CFD trading.

[eminemcookie]

The futures market has an impact because you can use both the real market and the futures market to trade off one against the other. Not only is expiry a good time to manipulate prices for favorable futures outcomes, on expiry it may then be better to buy bitcoin instead of purchasing more futures.

[BitcoinNewbie15]

I think that Tom Lee is incompetent,but I agree that bitcoin futures have some impact that pushes the bitcoin prices down.Why don`t we do something to force CME to cancel BTC futures trading.Maybe write a petition or
raise awareness.How come btc futures trading is still allowed,but the US authorities think that the BTC market is manipulated.It`s absurd to trade futures for an asset, that is known for it`s price manipulations.

But how does the bitcoin futures market have an impact? Is it psychological, coincidence, or something else? I reckon it should have an impact if there are real bitcoins delivered after the contracts expire. But there is none. The futures market is more the same to CFD trading.

There is nothing to support what I am about to say so take it with a grain of salt... But the theory has it that these big whales buy-in on the CBOE futures and then they collude together to manipulate BTCs price in their favor. I don't know how profitable/likely something like this is, but that is the theory I have heard going around.

I mean it could be just human nature... Seeing patterns out of nothing. I just think Tom Lee may be trying to justify the sell-off at this point so he doesn't look too crazy.

[pooya87]

this could have been true if this was the first time that we see a drop and manipulation like this but it is not! and it won't be the last. bitcoin futures were added recently but we have had massive dumps like this in the past too. and i don't really think the whales care or use futures to earn money, if they want they can do margin trading on big exchanges but the profit earned from the manipulation and the "sell attacks" is a lot more than what futures can give a whale!

[Tankdestroyer]

But how does the bitcoin futures market have an impact? Is it psychological, coincidence, or something else? I reckon it should have an impact if there are real bitcoins delivered after the contracts expire.

Since bitcoin futures is a contract to buy or sell bitcoin at a specific point of time(at a specific price), it somehow affects bitcoin one way or another. Nevertheless, I don't see it as the real reason for the recent market sell-off because the volume of its trade is not that significant anyway when compared to the total supply of bitcoin. I'd say that the current bearish trend is a normal occurrence for the market when some people are securing profits(by selling).

[1Referee]

Since bitcoin futures is a contract to buy or sell bitcoin at a specific point of time(at a specific price), it somehow affects bitcoin one way or another.

These contracts don't buy you anything since there are no real Bitcoins involved. These are purely cash settled contracts. At the moment your contracts expire, you either end up losing cash, or the platform will pay you cash.

What most people tend to ignore, and I actually think is the main reason, is the fact that there are too many circulating coins at this point. We have had several years where the circulating number of coins was decreasing rapidly, which resulted in the price to increase, but due to the insane peak of last year, these coins are back in the market again. I don't know how long it will take for these coins to be put into a long sleep, but in the worst case we'll head back to levels before the craze started.

In other words, it's just the good old supply and demand being the main cause of this year's decline.

[warrior333]

this could have been true if this was the first time that we see a drop and manipulation like this but it is not! and it won't be the last. bitcoin futures were added recently but we have had massive dumps like this in the past too. and i don't really think the whales care or use futures to earn money, if they want they can do margin trading on big exchanges but the profit earned from the manipulation and the "sell attacks" is a lot more than what futures can give a whale!

I think you're wrong. Whales cannot continue to attack costs and have a profit margin stocks. Trading volume is constantly decreasing. We don't know what percentage of these deals the whales make between themselves. It seems to me that now everyone is beginning to lose income and for this reason the market will soon give the bulls.

[fabiorem]

Its quite simple.

When futures got announced, in October last year, institutional funds, which were to place bets on it, bought massive ammounts of bitcoin. Thats why the price rose in late October and early November. When CME had opened in December, they placed their bets, some in longs, others in shorts. The short ones probably had bought more coins than their adversaries, and used the ensuing panic to drive the price down. Since CME pay with leverage, they bet more than they had bought in bitcoin, and this is why some hedge funds had aborted their bitcoin operations this year, those were the ones who got long in futures, and lose their bets.

I explained this before, more than one time, and still people say its a conspiracy theory. Bitcoin is now costing 15k to mine, whereas its price is going down to 1/5 of it. Big mining companies are probably dumping their coins to cover their expenses, and small mining companies will go bankrupt.

This is the "legitimacy" that people so much wanted. And adoption, now, is very far, as the poor are the most hit by this bear market. You cant say to a poor man to invest only 15% of his holdings, or not invest more than he can afford to lose, when he have so few money to even make a difference. He will probably put most of his savings into it. There was already one suicide reported in South Korea, and many more might have killed themselves over it.

[Denker]

Mr. Lee can blame whoever he wants.
Fact is he was wrong way too much that I would listen to him even just for minute.
Bitcoin is not like the bond or stock market. Still very new and very tiny. Guys with deep pockets of course can push the price in the direction they want. But they won't and can not do this forever. He is just worried about his reputation imo.

[bobo012]

I think that Tom Lee is incompetent,but I agree that bitcoin futures have some impact that pushes the bitcoin prices down.Why don`t we do something to force CME to cancel BTC futures trading.Maybe write a petition or
raise awareness.How come btc futures trading is still allowed,but the US authorities think that the BTC market is manipulated.It`s absurd to trade futures for an asset, that is known for it`s price manipulations.

Incompetent or not he is doing it a favor by advertising it. Everything is good in the long term, any media attention is good.
On the another note i dont like banksters playing with paper money settled futures on bitcoin. They are destroying the world not just bitcoin, they just dont care

[bbc.reporter]

Since bitcoin futures is a contract to buy or sell bitcoin at a specific point of time(at a specific price), it somehow affects bitcoin one way or another.

These contracts don't buy you anything since there are no real Bitcoins involved. These are purely cash settled contracts. At the moment your contracts expire, you either end up losing cash, or the platform will pay you cash.

What most people tend to ignore, and I actually think is the main reason, is the fact that there are too many circulating coins at this point. We have had several years where the circulating number of coins was decreasing rapidly, which resulted in the price to increase, but due to the insane peak of last year, these coins are back in the market again. I don't know how long it will take for these coins to be put into a long sleep, but in the worst case we'll head back to levels before the craze started.

In other words, it's just the good old supply and demand being the main cause of this year's decline.

Then there is no connection, and that Tom Lee is only pouring out his frustrations because his $25 thousand bitcoin prediction will not come true?

But how would you explain the selloff of real bitcoin when the futures contracts expire?

[cydrix]

Can anyone explain why there is a correlation between the bitcoin futures' expiration and the sell off of real bitcoins?

Is the connection a real one or is this only one of those market conditions that go away after the general feeling on the market has changed?



The co-founder of Fundstrat Global Advisors and outspoken crypto bull Tom Lee blames Cboe futures for Bitcoin’s recent sell-off.

In a new note to investors, Lee wrote “Bitcoin sees dramatic price changes around Cboe futures expirations,” reports CNBC. “This was something flagged by Justin Saslaw at Raptor Group. We compiled some of the data and this indeed seems to be true. Overall, bitcoin has fallen 18 percent in the 10 days prior to CBOE contract expiration.”

Cboe futures expired Wednesday, as the price of BTC fell to $6,300 – its lowest level since February. Today Bitcoin rebounded and is currently up more than 5% on CoinMarketCap.

As for the future price of Bitcoin, Lee is still as bullish as ever, with his end-of-the-year price target locked at $25,000.

Read the full article https://dailyhodl.com/2018/06/14/bullish-strategist-tom-lee-blames-bitcoin-futures-for-recent-market-sell-off/

Truth hurts nothing we can do about it. That is pure honesty but publishing it would create various doubtness in the community and for the new investors some people are close minded so they forget to look for other point of view or maybe they lack the experience to understand the situation leaving them full of doubt.

[pooya87]

this could have been true if this was the first time that we see a drop and manipulation like this but it is not! and it won't be the last. bitcoin futures were added recently but we have had massive dumps like this in the past too. and i don't really think the whales care or use futures to earn money, if they want they can do margin trading on big exchanges but the profit earned from the manipulation and the "sell attacks" is a lot more than what futures can give a whale!

I think you're wrong. Whales cannot continue to attack costs and have a profit margin stocks. Trading volume is constantly decreasing. We don't know what percentage of these deals the whales make between themselves. It seems to me that now everyone is beginning to lose income and for this reason the market will soon give the bulls.

maybe you are right but the decrease in volume is as i believe because of that manipulation which has pushed many investors out of the market because things got out of hand and unpredictable. but it still is high enough for whales to make the profit they want.
and you are right about the last part. eventually we will get to the point where it becomes impossible to keep this downtrend up and it will reverse.

[renes]

Bitcoin futures had effect on bitcoin's price as we saw but we can't blame only it for the fall of bitcoin but it has definetely a significant effect on the fall.

[illinest]

Tom Lee is the king of bagholders. This is a breed of permabull rarely seen in nature.

[richardsNY]

Tom Lee is the king of bagholders. This is a breed of permabull rarely seen in nature.

Lee is the king of mainstream media it seems. I try to not open anything related to the subjects he tends to cover (in order to hopefully not trigger content linking algorithms), and still I am flooded with articles and videos having his name thick stamped as title. If he continues like that, he'll become crypto's Kim Kardashian. His bullish predictions don't seem to gain any type of traction with how far off they are every time, and now he turned a tad bit bearish to follow this market's downtrend. Maybe, and I say maybe, if he keeps trying he will be right eventually. I just hope he won't rub it in, even though it could be seen as a major breakthrough for him.

[Pursuer]

Tom Lee is the king of bagholders. This is a breed of permabull rarely seen in nature.

Lee is the king of mainstream media it seems. I try to not open anything related to the subjects he tends to cover (in order to hopefully not trigger content linking algorithms), and still I am flooded with articles and videos having his name thick stamped as title. If he continues like that, he'll become crypto's Kim Kardashian. His bullish predictions don't seem to gain any type of traction with how far off they are every time, and now he turned a tad bit bearish to follow this market's downtrend. Maybe, and I say maybe, if he keeps trying he will be right eventually. I just hope he won't rub it in, even though it could be seen as a major breakthrough for him.

if by "far off" you mean compare to what happens then you are wrong he was close to predicting the real price so far. but if by "far off" you mean in time then you are right. he always predicts for long term (at least what I have seen from him) and that is the easy part because in short term all the drama, FUD, manipulation, panic sells and FOMO buys are affecting the market and making it hard to predict. for example you can't say what the price will be in a month from now or where the bottom of this bullshit downtrend currently is but you can say that in a year or two price will be rising and setting a new ATH. you can also say in 2020 with the halving we will have a huge rise at least doubling the price of that time,.... and considering all these and the way bitcoin has been rising exponentially each time you can come up with a near accurate prediction.