SEEMS LIKE LARGE BTC HOLDERS TRYING TO KEEP PRICE AROUND $800

[dynodog]

Seems that the price of btc has maintained right around the $800 level on all exchanges for a fairly long time (except for Mtgox) - and it is doing so a little bit too conveniently.  With the stock market making big moves and various big news stories coming out about Turkey, Argentina, BTC china accepting deposits again, etc, you would think there would be bigger moves.  My guess:  the large btc holders are trying to reduce volatility in btc to remove this stigma about it.  They do so by capping rises and putting a floor on dips.  Manipulation is manipulation.  Let the market take it where it wants to go.

[Holliday]

That's not manipulation. Manipulation is when one group has a different set of rules than another group.

[Dalmar]

Seems that the price of btc has maintained right around the $800 level on all exchanges for a fairly long time (except for Mtgox) - and it is doing so a little bit too conveniently.  With the stock market making big moves and various big news stories coming out about Turkey, Argentina, BTC china accepting deposits again, etc, you would think there would be bigger moves.  My guess:  the large btc holders are trying to reduce volatility in btc to remove this stigma about it.  They do so by capping rises and putting a floor on dips.  Manipulation is manipulation.  Let the market take it where it wants to go.

China is irrelevant until Feb 6-7th when either deposits actually come through or PBOC bans again. Feb 6-7th is the actual 'Jan 31st'.

[GigaCoin]

there's certainly a pattern where the price recovers the moment it goes below $800,  even with strong sell offs. This has been the case for the past 30 days now. I don't know if it's manipulation or just a lot of people buying.

[Roy Badami]

If the price moves... it's "manipulation".  If the price doesn't move, it's "manipulation".

Not saying manipulation never occurs, but I suspect that most of what people put down to manipulation is just markets being markets.

roy

[Bobsurplus]

Why would I want to keep the price at $800?

Say I have 1000 BTC, I'd want it earning daily, not sitting and collecting dust.

[Bobsurplus]

If the price moves... it's "manipulation".  If the price doesn't move, it's "manipulation".

Not saying manipulation never occurs, but I suspect that most of what people put down to manipulation is just markets being markets.

roy

So true.

[MNDan]

If the largest holders of bitcoins decided they wanted to stabilize the market, this is what it would look like. Coins quietly coming into the marketplace anytime the price looks to be rising significantly above $800. It's good for them, good for bitcoin, and bad for speculators. At some point their supply will dry up - then it's showtime!

[rdmk]

Seems that the price of btc has maintained right around the $800 level on all exchanges for a fairly long time (except for Mtgox) - and it is doing so a little bit too conveniently.  With the stock market making big moves and various big news stories coming out about Turkey, Argentina, BTC china accepting deposits again, etc, you would think there would be bigger moves.  My guess:  the large btc holders are trying to reduce volatility in btc to remove this stigma about it.  They do so by capping rises and putting a floor on dips.  Manipulation is manipulation.  Let the market take it where it wants to go.

China is irrelevant until Feb 6-7th when either deposits actually come through or PBOC bans again. Feb 6-7th is the actual 'Jan 31st'.

This.

Without subscribing to the end of the world fud, any effect of the CNYear will happen then. Right now everyone's showing their relatives about bitcoin.

[MatTheCat]

If the largest holders of bitcoins decided they wanted to stabilize the market, this is what it would look like. Coins quietly coming into the marketplace anytime the price looks to be rising significantly above $800. It's good for them, good for bitcoin, and bad for speculators. At some point their supply will dry up - then it's showtime!

I have been watching markets like a hawk in the past couple of weeks and I see it rather the other around. They aint fighting against upward buying pressure, it is the downward selling pressure that they are attempting and largely succeeding in standing in the way off.

Why would I want to keep the price at $800?

Say I have 1000 BTC, I'd want it earning daily, not sitting and collecting dust.

Say I had 100K BTC. I would prefer it to be earning daily whilst I sat on my fat arse doing fk all, but say I knew for sure that Bitcoin was already overinflated. Say I knew for sure that fresh capital simply wasn't coming into the market and say I knew that a stable Bitcoin was vital to Bitcoin related business ventures that I may have going which in the long run could prove infinitely more lucrative than any gains from sitting hoarding Bitcoins. In such a scenario, I would put everything I had into manipulating the market to hold within a stable range, moulding market to inhibit buyers being able to meet sellers (we seen a bot algorithm in action on Stamp and Gox doing just that earlier this evening), and using my own wealth to absorb any selling pressure.

I believe that these markets are being held up artificially high for purposes that may not be all that obvious or straightforward and certainly, In order to instigate the last crash, it took a 3000 BTC sale within about 5 minutes to ignite the market into freefall. I watched it happen. I would speculate that there might be some kind of 'whale war' going on right now in Bitcoin and this is totally dominating the price discovery action.

tinfoil hat time.

"ooh, somebody actually thinks that there might be some kind of market action going on that isn't totally apparent for all to see, lets reach for the tin-foil hats"

GTF outta here u retarded mainstream clown.

[billyjoeallen]

Seems people with deep pockets think anything below $800/BTC is cheap. Maybe they are right.

[AltorXP]

Why would I want to keep the price at $800?

Say I have 1000 BTC, I'd want it earning daily, not sitting and collecting dust.

The major BTC holders want to lower volatility, so more people trust, and buy bitcoin, which could make the price much higher than the $1,000 level

[jermwerty]

The major BTC holders want to lower volatility, so more people trust, and buy bitcoin, which could make the price much higher than the $1,000 level

*bingo

$800 is the new $6 mark (post $27 crash) and new $100 mark (post $270 crash)...  We could be stuck here for 1-18months (remember it took from June 2011 - Feb 2013 to hit $27 then break $20 barrier again....)

[Tirapon]

The major BTC holders want to lower volatility, so more people trust, and buy bitcoin, which could make the price much higher than the $1,000 level

*bingo

$800 is the new $6 mark (post $27 crash) and new $100 mark (post $270 crash)...  We could be stuck here for 1-18months (remember it took from June 2011 - Feb 2013 to hit $27 then break $20 barrier again....)

18 months is far too long, it will be quicker this time.

[m_murfy]

The major BTC holders want to lower volatility, so more people trust, and buy bitcoin, which could make the price much higher than the $1,000 level

*bingo

$800 is the new $6 mark (post $27 crash) and new $100 mark (post $270 crash)...  We could be stuck here for 1-18months (remember it took from June 2011 - Feb 2013 to hit $27 then break $20 barrier again....)

18 months is far too long, it will be quicker this time.

The time between large upwards impulses does seem to be decreasing.
Are we in the middle of the next one already perhaps?

[Lloydie]

Seems that the price of btc has maintained right around the $800 level on all exchanges for a fairly long time (except for Mtgox) - and it is doing so a little bit too conveniently.  With the stock market making big moves and various big news stories coming out about Turkey, Argentina, BTC china accepting deposits again, etc, you would think there would be bigger moves.  My guess:  the large btc holders are trying to reduce volatility in btc to remove this stigma about it.  They do so by capping rises and putting a floor on dips.  Manipulation is manipulation.  Let the market take it where it wants to go.

I just came on here to post this exact same thought and found this thread right at the top.

I speculate that large holders are getting the message that bitcoin is too volatile and are buying and selling bitcoins to maintain $800.  The other theory I have is that the Bitcoin Investment Trust has issued guidance to its trader to buy bitcoins if it gets near $800.

The bitcoin purchases are probably absorbing bitcoins being dumped by retail companies selling their bitcoins into the market.

[sprot]

I THINK YOU'RE RIGHT

[Elwar]

I believe it is hovering around this price precisely because it has been at that price for a while and is now seen as "the price". So people who think the price should go down a lot when bad news hits are surprised when the price drops and people buy it up pushing the price back to 800ish. Then people are surprised when it does not skyrocket on good news when it starts going up and people start selling and shorting because they know the price will return to 800.

There are two major things holding the price down. China and the FBI. Once those are out of the way it may jump again...but not until something big knocks it out of the range where people believe it will return to 800. Last time it hovered around 125 for a long time for that reason. The China exchanges knocked it up to 200, then as it started falling back down it took another jump pushing past 260 which left all thoughts of 125 behind.

[Lloydie]

I believe it is hovering around this price precisely because it has been at that price for a while and is now seen as "the price". So people who think the price should go down a lot when bad news hits are surprised when the price drops and people buy it up pushing the price back to 800ish. Then people are surprised when it does not skyrocket on good news when it starts going up and people start selling and shorting because they know the price will return to 800.

There are two major things holding the price down. China and the FBI. Once those are out of the way it may jump again...but not until something big knocks it out of the range where people believe it will return to 800. Last time it hovered around 125 for a long time for that reason. The China exchanges knocked it up to 200, then as it started falling back down it took another jump pushing past 260 which left all thoughts of 125 behind.

Interesting. Thanks for the contribution. Re: FBI, I'm not worried about the 144k coins for the reason that 1.35 million coins are going to be mined over next twelve months. Moreover, 120k of those coins are being disputed.

Re: China. That I'm slightly worried about, as it is entirely possible that the govt bans bank to bank transfer for bitcoins. However, after the initial shock of the ban, I think Btc china will find another way around it. If they have to send money couriers in and out of the FTZ, I think they will.

I guess I'll keep some fiat on hand in case china bans bank to bank transfers.

[banaltcoin]

i need a raise to $5000 then a drop to $2000, so i can make some $$$, the current market situation is bad for investment, money in bitcoin is stucked, $0 profit, even worse than the Bank saving interest