SEEMS LIKE LARGE BTC HOLDERS TRYING TO KEEP PRICE AROUND $800

[Lloydie]

That's ok. I know someone who did the opposite of you. He didn't have $20k but borrowed it. He bought 5000 coins and he is headed for a year long travel/holiday/work trip. I know who I'd rather be in one year's time. Bitter and twisted, wishing for markets to drop or busily building bitcoin businesses and enjoying life?  . You decide.

[MatTheCat]

That's ok. I know someone who did the opposite of you. He didn't have $20k but borrowed it. He bought 5000 coins and he is headed for a year long travel/holiday/work trip. I know who I'd rather be in one year's time. Bitter and twisted, wishing for markets to drop or busily building bitcoin businesses and enjoying life?  . You decide.

Yeah yeah yeah.

Woulda, shoulda, coulda.

I have got over the fact that I have had every opportunity to be a Bitcoin millionaire by now, but amn't, quite some time ago. Good for your mate. He took a huge risk in doing what he did and now he is made for life. If I spent that 20K USD on Bitcoin's right now, I could buy about 30 btc, which by early March might well be worth just about 8K (or maybe even less). How far around the world could I travel for -$12K USD?

[Lloydie]

I see the difference between him and you as follows: he understood the market dynamics and made a wise (and bloody lucky) decision to hodl.  You kept trading and wasted your opportunity because you didn't see what he saw.  So, what's the lesson we can all learn from this?  Understand the long term market dynamics.  AFAIK, he is still keeping Btcs.  The bitcoin market is still very early stage.  See www.bitcoinpulse.com.  The only thing worse than missing the first boat is missing the second.

[MatTheCat]

I see the difference between him and you as follows: he understood the market dynamics and made a wise (and bloody lucky) decision to hodl.  You kept trading and wasted your opportunity because you didn't see what he saw.  So, what's the lesson we can all learn from this?  Understand the long term market dynamics.  AFAIK, he is still keeping Btcs.  The bitcoin market is still very early stage.  See www.bitcoinpulse.com.  The only thing worse than missing the first boat is missing the second.

What are you talking about?

My first truly speculative Bitcoin was bought at around $720 in late November 2013. If I simply bought and held I would right now be staring at no more than a 1.5K USD profit. That would be a terrible state of affairs! I have made thousands trading Bitcoin, most of it on the way up cos any fool can make money in an upward market. It is when the prevailing trend is going the other way that things become a bit trickier. Until just a few weeks ago I never even had a clue what the MACD was, but that still never prevented me from recognising the top was in and a nasty correction was on it's way.

How could I see this whilst the majority on here were claiming that we would never see sub $1000 Bitcoin again or debating whether Bitcoin would be $1500 or $2000 by Jan 2014? Is it because I possess some inate ability to read markets? Or was it cos it was just plain fkn obvious and most posters on here are fkn idiots, which is why I get so spitting mad reading all their fluffy wishful and baseless drivel.

[Lloydie]

Current fluctuations are no big deal IMHO, I think in one year everything will sort itself out.  The only thing I'd say is get some Ltc just in case Gavin wants to play robocop.

[raid_n]

What are you talking about?

My first truly speculative Bitcoin was bought at around $720 in late November 2013. If I simply bought and held I would right now be staring at no more than a 1.5K USD profit. That would be a terrible state of affairs! I have made thousands trading Bitcoin, most of it on the way up cos any fool can make money in an upward market. It is when the prevailing trend is going the other way that things become a bit trickier. Until just a few weeks ago I never even had a clue what the MACD was, but that still never prevented me from recognising the top was in and a nasty correction was on it's way.

How could I see this whilst the majority on here were claiming that we would never see sub $1000 Bitcoin again or debating whether Bitcoin would be $1500 or $2000 by Jan 2014? Is it because I possess some inate ability to read markets? Or was it cos it was just plain fkn obvious and most posters on here are fkn idiots, which is why I get so spitting mad reading all their fluffy wishful and baseless drivel.

I actually have 20K (USD) allocated to my Bitstamp account. I would like to say that probably 8-10K of that is profit from Bitcoin trades but that would be bullshit. I have totally fkn burned money on absolute shit since I started getting small windfalls through Bitcoin. So all that money is my own hard earned cash, and I aint away to piss it out on Bitcoins in what seems like to me, a very shaky market destined for some considerable down time yet.

You know when I first came to this forum I thought your posts were interesting and you were genuinely interested in Bitcoin.
Lately all you seem to be saying is "ZOMG manipulation!!!" (only if it does not fit your predictions, right? ) and "I knew it all it is obvious anyone not seeing it is a moron".

I can't tell if this is because in reality you are a Bull in a Bear's hide hoping for a better BTC position or if you are just frustrated and jealous of the lucky ones that believed in Bitcoin at an early stage.

It seems to me that you are a gambler and that greed may take the better of you.
You laugh at 1.5k USD profit because, as the superior trader that you see yourself, you'd have made gazillions in the same time.

In reality if you really were that good at trading you'd take a massive loan, make it all back within a short period of time and then brag to us about your riches.
But the truth is that you have no fucking idea like most of us.

[MatTheCat]

In reality if you really were that good at trading you'd take a massive loan, make it all back within a short period of time and then brag to us about your riches.
But the truth is that you have no fucking idea like most of us.

Except more often than not, I am right and you guys are all wrong.

I realise that the market goes two ways, most of you only want to think think of 'choo choo motherfucker', post unfunny HODL memes, or *FACEPALM* jpegs when someone disagrees with you all, like what I got hit with when I first reversed from my predominantly bullish to predominantly bearish position way back when Bitcoin was still over $1000.

I am quite happy stating that I don't care about Bitcoin, and only care about my profit margins in the same way I could state the same thing about BP if I had invested in BP stocks, or JPMorgan if I was holding their stocks. Actually, it would probably be a good thing for society if these stocks went to zero and these companies disappeared out of business. I would say the same thing about Bitcoin. It has nothing to do with liberty or punching out against the establishment for the little guy. It is a nasty pernicious 100% trackable method of digital payment that has already been completely cornered by just a handful of entities, with a structure of future dispersion, that is guaranteed to exacerbate this 'problem' insomuch as it wasn't intended by design all along.

Thankyou for suggesting that my trading skills are so good that I should take out a loan, but I think I will pass on that. See, these markets are cornered markets and in recent times, they have been totally dominated by the big hitters, something which has more likely than not always been the case except when everyone else is getting rich from it, nobody cares. Anyone watching closely can see this. There have been fantastic efforts to hold the price and providing no other whale entity had nothing to say against this, these efforts would succeed and still might succeed albeit at a lower price range. For most of the past 2-3 weeks, the price has been holed up in an unfeasibly narrow zone and it has taken some very large BTC dumps to tip the scales against the price holding algorithms. For the previous weeks slide down to $725, it took a 3000 BTC sell off on Bistamp within a 5 minute period. Yesterday, it took at 1500 BTC sell off within 1 minute to dismantle the humongous Bid wall, resulting in a bit of price slippage. Ask yourself, who is piling up these massive Bid/Ask walls and whose bot keeps pushing the spot price away from the weight of the genuine market? And then who is coming along with a hundreds or thousands of coins and dumping them all at once?

So you are right, like most people, I have no fucking idea. To be able to predict Bitcoin at the moment you need to be a mindreader and I can't read minds and even if I could, I wouldn't know whose mind to read in order to get an understanding of what is in store for Bitcoin. But at least I am able to stand back and see the wood for the trees without needing photographic evidence and a signed confession from the wood, stating that it is infact a wood, and not just a bunch of random trees. Perhaps the narratives that I apply to the market action aren't wholly correct, but who cares. As long as they continue to serve me right, that is all that matters to me. After all, one has got have an opinion and as you may have noticed, I always have an opinion.

As an aside from my admission of not feeling that I can really call Bitcoin at the moment, anyone who had taken Tech Analysis 101, would confirm that Bitcoin charts are very bearish and if you were forced to place a bet on it right now, it would have to be a short.

[Miz4r]

Except more often than not, I am right and you guys are all wrong.

Ah yes ofcourse, the good old Dunning-Kruger effect. If you stopped antagonizing every single person who says something bullish and paint them all with the same brush maybe you'd see that most of us are actually perfectly aware that the price could go both ways, but we don't always agree on which way the price is most likely to go next. And we aren't all perma-bulls or perma-bears either. There are always bulls and bears around, however you seem to focus only on the bulls and whenever the price goes down a bit you say 'Hah I told you so I am right and you are wrong! Look at my short I'm making thousands of dollars!!'. And when the price goes back up you make a thread complaining about bots and manipulators holding the price up when it should go down. I really think you have an unhealthy obsession here.

As an aside from my admission of not feeling that I can really call Bitcoin at the moment, anyone who had taken Tech Analysis 101, would confirm that Bitcoin charts are very bearish and if you were forced to place a bet on it right now, it would have to be a short.

Actually no. Even professional Technical Analysts are rarely all in agreement and I have seen both bullish and bearish TA from actual professional traders for the short term. Would you say that those who are bullish simply don't understand TA 101 even though they are professionals and have made their living as a trader for many years now?

[MatTheCat]

Except more often than not, I am right and you guys are all wrong.

Ah yes ofcourse, the good old Dunning-Kruger effect. If you stopped antagonizing every single person who says something bullish and paint them all with the same brush maybe you'd see that most of us are actually perfectly aware that the price could go both ways, but we don't always agree on which way the price is most likely to go next. And we aren't all perma-bulls or perma-bears either. There are always bulls and bears around, however you seem to focus only on the bulls and whenever the price goes down a bit you say 'Hah I told you so I am right and you are wrong! Look at my short I'm making thousands of dollars!!'. And when the price goes back up you make a thread complaining about bots and manipulators holding the price up when it should go down. I really think you have an unhealthy obsession here.

It is hard not to develop a hyperphobic reaction against a lot of the idiot users on this site...It is a bit like being stuck in a shopping mall getting your mind bombarded with advertisements telling you to eat junk food, buy lots of stuff you don't need, etc .....but yeah, I need a break from this. It isn't healthy.

But certainly lots of dodgy shit going on Bitcoin land right now....Bitcoinwisdom is down (not good, I wouldn't be trading anything if I never had access to this), Bitfinex hacked, probably a lot of people been robbed there, huge dumps on Gox and also on Stamp.

but erm, just all normal every day market action, nothing to see here, move along people.

EDIT: Between 6th Jan and 28th Jan, we had an extended descending triangle. This is a bearish indicator. It sez so on page 101 of Martin Prings 'TA Explained' book. I got in a 'debate' with the usual retards on this forum over this. I stated in most cases, we could expect a market break down from this. I was met with the usual jibes and some cherry picked out of context examples of Bitcoin going North after a similar formation in the past. Within the next day or two, Bitcoin broke down beneath the important support level. Now we are pressing and indeed dipping below this $765 support level once again...bearish or bullish? C'mon, seriously?

[igorr]

BTC quickly losing popularity.

View Screen Capture

View Screen Capture

[meanig]

BTC quickly losing popularity.

MtGox quickly losing popularity.

[raid_n]

@Mat

Try to step back and take an objective look at what you are postulating:

Some ominous "whale entity or entities" have a "hidden agenda" to hold the value of BTC at a certain, arbitrary USD value.
Need I remind you that whenever Bitcoin fluctuates as hell it is also other/the same "whale entities" (I kind of like that term) causing it...

There is often a grain of truth in many far fetched ideas but under this assumption any logic breaks down completely.
Price didn't do what you expected? -> the whale entity didn't like it
Price did what you expected -> did the whale entity approve?

From this we can argue that the whale entity is the reason PayPal is not yet accepting BTC because, well it is the whale entity right?

Do you see where I am going here? You try and pinpoint non-determinism in price prediction to a single factor (the whale entity).
There is no such thing as a foolproof market prediction. The moment it were to exist it would invalidate itself.

I don't trade so maybe I view things differently.  This is just how it looks to me.

Oh, and just to get you thinking on something. If in fact there is such a thing as a whale entity you could start predicting its behavior.
This reduces your entire problem back down to where you started. Predicting the market accurately and reliably

[igorr]

Why BTC want infiltrates into someone else's house ? (PayPal, Skrill, Bank of China, Bank of Russia , .... )

The answer is simple, because the BTC is parasite.
PayPal says, in my house my rules !!!

[MatTheCat]

Oh, and just to get you thinking on something. If in fact there is such a thing as a whale entity you could start predicting its behavior.
This reduces your entire problem back down to where you started. Predicting the market accurately and reliably

The fact that you even make such an assertion leaves us with no midway ground upon which we can discuss this further.

Last thing I will say is that in very low volume times, I have tried to push the market in a way that I wanted. At first i seemed to succeed, but their was bigger boys that had different ideas and I took a slapping and had to fold my hand. If I am a tiddler and I can think like this and even successfully affect the flow of the market up to a point, whales certainly think like this and certainly attempt to affect the market in a way that suits them. The extent to which they succeed or not is another matter (dependant on actions of other whales).

[dyask]

That's not manipulation. Manipulation is when one group has a different set of rules than another group.

No ....
When price doesn't do what I want it to do it is manipulation.   

[cryptoanarchist]

That's not manipulation. Manipulation is when one group has a different set of rules than another group.

+1

Bitcoin can't be "manipulated". A lot of folks on here are pretty clueless about how the market works.

[MatTheCat]

Bitcoin can't be "manipulated". A lot of folks on here are pretty clueless about how the market works.

Wot are you talking about? If owned 100'000 BTC, and had 10 million USD liquidity on the exchanges are you trying to tell me that I couldn't pimp this market around like a bitch. I could ramp or crash this market however I saw fit, at least until some bigger whales came along and moved against me. But if I was the biggest whale (i.e. 'Satoshi'/NSA/CIA), then I push this market any way I wanted and nobody would have the power to stand in my way.

Or perhaps I am missing something. Perhaps you are a grade A Free Markets 101 student. Please enlighten me how the utterly cornered Bitcoin market can't be manipulated?

[Edward50]

Bitcoin can't be "manipulated". A lot of folks on here are pretty clueless about how the market works.

Wot are you talking about? If owned 100'000 BTC, and had 10 million USD liquidity on the exchanges are you trying to tell me that I couldn't pimp this market around like a bitch. I could ramp or crash this market however I saw fit, at least until some bigger whales came along and moved against me. But if I was the biggest whale (i.e. 'Satoshi'/NSA/CIA), then I push this market any way I wanted and nobody would have the power to stand in my way.

Or perhaps I am missing something. Perhaps you are a grade A Free Markets 101 student. Please enlighten me how the utterly cornered Bitcoin market can't be manipulated?

Just wanted to point out that I played around in some alt coins with what I would consider not a lot of coins, but still a reasonable amount. I was surprised at how easy it is to manipulate the market. Bitcoin price can still be very easily manipulated even at these levels with a reasonable but not a substantial amount of money.

Just my 2 cents.

What you are seeing with bitcoin is that the price is too high and unsustainable. It can not really move that much higher at this point. You basically have nobody buying as the price is way too high. You have a lot of people just sitting on a mountain of bitcoins who are still waiting for the price to go much higher.

I think what is also holding the price up lately is Mt. Gox. Mt Gox. used to be the biggest exchange and I am sure a lot of people have their money tied up in there. Eventually they will get their money out or something will happen and this will cause everything to fall. I think we are seeing this now. Mt Gox. was probably a reason why bitcoin price held up so well.

What I think will happen is once the price falls to $600's level that will be when people start to panic more and start to think maybe I should get out now before it goes even lower. If I was sitting with bitcoins at $800, now they are $600's and the price was not able to go above $800 for weeks, I would panic and not want to sit with bitcoins.

It will be interesting to see, I sold my bitcoins weeks ago in anticipation of a big price fall. I am surprised the price is holding up, but it seems to get weaker and weaker.

[MatTheCat]

It will be interesting to see, I sold my bitcoins weeks ago in anticipation of a big price fall. I am surprised the price is holding up, but it seems to get weaker and weaker.

As per the theme of this thread. A lot of people are looking at the market action and get the feeling that powerful hands are trying to hold Bitcoin in place. I would be one of those who subscribe to this view. Under normal market conditions, they have been succeeding, however along comes another whale and drops 2000 BTC all at once. And this keeps happening. Just when we get to a wall that seems like it should prove a major support level, along comes another whale and drops a big pile of BTC into it. Yes, there are those whale entities in whose interests it was to stabilise Bitcoin within a certain price range (the higher the better I would imagine), but there are also whale entities who want to see the price go much lower. These aren't just cash-ins or panic sell offs we are seeing. These are well timed mass sell-offs, designed to negatively twist market sentiment at key points in the chart development

Right now, we have a very large buy-in wall at $725. In a truly 'free market' situation, this would be such an obvious buy-in opportunity, but I am not buying in as I fear that there might be another Behemoth sitting at his PC ready to dump another 500 BTC or whatever and send Bitcoin crashing further. Going by the ultra low 'recovery' volume we have seen so far, it seems I am far from the only one who feels this way. If anyone wants to call this market action 'free market', then I would hate to hear their definition of a cornered manipulated market.

[adamstgBit]

It will be interesting to see, I sold my bitcoins weeks ago in anticipation of a big price fall. I am surprised the price is holding up, but it seems to get weaker and weaker.

As per the theme of this thread. A lot of people are looking at the market action and get the feeling that powerful hands are trying to hold Bitcoin in place. I would be one of those who subscribe to this view. Under normal market conditions, they have been succeeding, however along comes another whale and drops 2000 BTC all at once. And this keeps happening. Just when we get to a wall that seems like it should prove a major support level, along comes another whale and drops a big pile of BTC into it. Yes, there are those whale entities in whose interests it was to stabilise Bitcoin within a certain price range (the higher the better I would imagine), but there are also whale entities who want to see the price go much lower. These aren't just cash-ins or panic sell offs we are seeing. These are well timed mass sell-offs, designed to negatively twist market sentiment at key points in the chart development

Right now, we have a very large buy-in wall at $725. In a truly 'free market' situation, this would be such an obvious buy-in opportunity, but I am not buying in as I fear that there might be another Behemoth sitting at his PC ready to dump another 500 BTC or whatever and send Bitcoin crashing further. Going by the ultra low 'recovery' volume we have seen so far, it seems I am far from the only one who feels this way. If anyone wants to call this market action 'free market', then I would hate to hear their definition of a cornered manipulated market.

do you even know what QE is?