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Author Topic: Why now?  (Read 2160 times)
mute20
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September 19, 2011, 07:23:38 PM
 #1

I am curious to why the price is going up now? Was there any big thing that happened or is it just like a spur of the moment movement where it seems like the right move for people?
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September 19, 2011, 07:26:54 PM
 #2

Three reasons:

Lots of people SUSPECTED of the rally, but were waiting for something.

It is monday (when banks deposits the USD of people)

A bullish post was made by BitcoinAnalyst, confirming reason 1, and also being a "something" to reason 1 be actually true.





So yes, there are some circular logic and self-completing prophecies from BitcoinAnalyst in the middle, but this is because it was the right time for correction to end. (you can look at his charts to understand)

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September 19, 2011, 07:28:52 PM
 #3

If it is as many are hoping, we may have finally reached the true bottom after a 3-4 month correction. It may have never been a bubble, just a correction. We just reached another new daily high less then 5 minutes ago so BUY BUY BUY!
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September 19, 2011, 07:31:06 PM
 #4

A few days ago:

Quote
Why now?


I am curious to why the price is going down now? Was there any big thing that happened or is it just like a spur of the moment movement where it seems like the right move for people

It’s because the price did not make a new low below the 4.18 capitulation selling with 220k BTC volume, the largest volume ever since the decline from 25 to 10 USD.

The weaklings with 20k BTC each to dump are out now.

"Bitcoin had been transformed from an anarachistic challenge to the financial status quo, to the crypto spawn of Satan, fuelled by cut-throat greed and delusions of avarice." - MatTheCat
"these people don't seem to want to stop till Bitcoin is completely destroyed and left like an old cum rag in the corner of the room." - ShroomsKit
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September 19, 2011, 07:53:13 PM
 #5

Thing is, we have been waiting for the market to reach a bottom for a long time now. The recent market activity is seen by many as a confirmation that the bottom has been reached. This is why we are now seeing pressure for a higher price and a rally even.

Also, people have realized that Bitcoin hasn't died or anything silly like that, in fact the fundamental infrastructure is growing very rapidly with super promising services in early stages, such as the bit-pay mobile payment system. For the real Bitcoin economy this is just the beginning, the price is a different animal which follows different rules, at least for now when it's mostly based on speculation.

The price movement is basically mass psychology. The mood of the market is changing. I was already seeing this weeks before and the market activity of recent days have confirmed my thoughts. The cherry on the cake was the quite positive announcement from the most watched Bitcoin analyst.

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September 19, 2011, 08:25:39 PM
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Because I sold all my coins and refuse to buy more till it drops to $3 due to bitcoin prices behaving like some intelligent entity always trying to screw me over.  It'll probably keep rallying.

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sukiho
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September 19, 2011, 08:28:26 PM
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this is why religions happen, not criticizing, just the way the universe works
behaving like some intelligent entity always trying to screw me over. 
Minsc
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September 19, 2011, 08:29:10 PM
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this is why religions happen, not criticizing, just the way the universe works
behaving like some intelligent entity always trying to screw me over. 

Obviously it's not.  I've just observed it behaves that way.

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September 19, 2011, 11:08:51 PM
 #9

Because my USD transfer just cleared today, and, as always, the Bitcoin market nevere lets me buy low (missed the $4 prices, as expected). The series of coincidences are getting freaky (Adam Smith invisible hand bitchslap!)

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September 19, 2011, 11:14:21 PM
 #10

Obviously it's not.  I've just observed it behaves that way.

There is a simple solution - if you find your instinct trades are constantly screwing you over, stop trading on emotion. When you really think "all is lost I should (buy/sell/kill myself)", just stop and don't do anything. Take a cold shower, look at TA graphs, think with a clear head, then act Smiley Trust me it'll save you more than in one situation in life.

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September 19, 2011, 11:22:56 PM
 #11

Why is the price going up now?  It could be market psychology.  If most people start to think 'it can't fall much lower from here' that's the beginning of a rally.  They believe the price will either stagnate or go up, which is a good reason to buy now.  The slowly rising price attracts more buyers looking to get in on the trend and you have a rally.

$5.50 now, which is a moderate increase over recent trends.  Previously the higher price didn't hold so it'll be interesting to see whether speculators believe this time is different.

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September 19, 2011, 11:34:30 PM
 #12

It actually beat yesterdays previous 5.6 high, which is something it hasn't really done in months. Usually there would be a rally, but the high would be lower than the previous one. It would dip, and then the process would repeat, with each high always being lower then the last. But today that pattern was broken when 5.64 was hit. Hoping that trend continues.
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September 19, 2011, 11:36:38 PM
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Obviously it's not.  I've just observed it behaves that way.

There is a simple solution - if you find your instinct trades are constantly screwing you over, stop trading on emotion. When you really think "all is lost I should (buy/sell/kill myself)", just stop and don't do anything. Take a cold shower, look at TA graphs, think with a clear head, then act Smiley Trust me it'll save you more than in one situation in life.

I agree...anytime anything starts to look bad I go work on something else.  At least then if everything fails there is a backup, if not then all is good, if it stays the same nothing is lost.  Panic gets you nowhere, listening to the doomsayers gets you broke (even if some of them are right sometimes the majority are not).  The market price got close to my break even point on mining (it would take a monthly weighted average of $3 or less to make me consider shutting down my rigs) but I stayed in, didn't sell and found other ways to make up for the "loss".  I expect it to pay off, if not I really have learned a lot through all of this (I had never attempted a multi-gpu rig before this let alone one with 5 gpu's or wiring 2 psu's to a computer) and the amount of loss I would be taking if BTC were to go to $0 today is minimal...actually I would probably still turn a profit.  
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September 19, 2011, 11:45:46 PM
 #14

super long term support is my hope.
http://dumpt.com/img/files/aopcnykexw2yy2zu5rf2.png
Minsc
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September 20, 2011, 01:56:54 AM
 #15

Obviously it's not.  I've just observed it behaves that way.

There is a simple solution - if you find your instinct trades are constantly screwing you over, stop trading on emotion. When you really think "all is lost I should (buy/sell/kill myself)", just stop and don't do anything. Take a cold shower, look at TA graphs, think with a clear head, then act Smiley Trust me it'll save you more than in one situation in life.

I'm not talking about that.  I rationally try to determine if the price will go up or down.

I've observed this kind of thing.
I notice the price swinging back and forth 10 cents, so I figure I can get in on a low swing and make a small profit and repeat.  Seems sensible.  So I do it.  Less than 2 seconds after that, MtGox freezes, MtGoxLive freezes and then it drops at least $1, sometimes $2 with someone selling a massive amount of coins off which makes it freeze.  I've had this happen 3 times now.  It didn't happen an hour later, or ten minutes, but about 2 seconds.  It's really freaky.  Whenever I've waited it out, it has never gone back up.

By the way, doing the opposite doesn't work.  That's like if there's a random number generator of 1 and 2 and then trying to guess it right.  Guessing the opposite won't work.  I normally win and lose about the same amount of coins, except when it does the coincidences like I've mentioned.  Also, if it is going to do a predictable pattern, then it stops doing that pattern.  Like it crashes on a Wednesday night instead of a Thursday afternoon and then goes up Friday and Saturday.



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ineededausername
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September 20, 2011, 02:11:55 AM
 #16

Damned resistance at $5.64 is keeping prices low.  I hope it turns out to be partially fake or something.

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September 20, 2011, 02:17:04 AM
 #17

Damned resistance at $5.64 is keeping prices low.  I hope it turns out to be partially fake or something.

its all the week holders thinking they are selling high...

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September 20, 2011, 02:27:05 AM
 #18

Damned resistance at $5.64 is keeping prices low.  I hope it turns out to be partially fake or something.

its all the week holders thinking they are selling high...

Back when it was in the $6s last month, it would start rallying and then about to go up to $10, then at about 20 cents higher, suddenly people are "I don't know if it will go much higher" and start selling coins off massively for a 1% profit, and then making it go back down and never climb.

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ineededausername
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September 20, 2011, 02:29:25 AM
 #19

Damned resistance at $5.64 is keeping prices low.  I hope it turns out to be partially fake or something.

its all the week holders thinking they are selling high...

Back when it was in the $6s last month, it would start rallying and then about to go up to $10, then at about 20 cents higher, suddenly people are "I don't know if it will go much higher" and start selling coins off massively for a 1% profit, and then making it go back down and never climb.

Such is the nature of the market.
However, this time I think we have sufficient pressure to eventually break the resistance.  The technicals are looking great.

(BFL)^2 < 0
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September 20, 2011, 02:31:18 AM
 #20

Damned resistance at $5.64 is keeping prices low.  I hope it turns out to be partially fake or something.

its all the week holders thinking they are selling high...

if by weak holders you mean a significant amount of miners constantly selling their btc like clockwork.. ok then!
that adds up to 1000s of BTC per day and that is the reason why i expect the price to fall back down soon enough.
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