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Author Topic: Why bitcoin will go down below 6000 (explanation)  (Read 399 times)
crypmike
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June 15, 2018, 10:33:10 PM
Merited by BTCLovingDude (2)
 #1

Hello everybody!

People are trying to guess where is the final point of the current market dump

I have a theory why bitcoin will go down to 5000-4800 levels, I'll try to explain my theory. It based on some observations of past markets

1)
First of all, let's compare Market Cycle graph, Chart BTCUSD 2013-2015, and the current chart. I made an image, https://imgur.com/a/dKBcQ1H
As you can see, a lot of similar points and in general they are VERY SIMILAR
So, Capitulation phase is higher then Anger, Anger is higher then Depression
That's why I can easily imagine, that the price will go below 6000

UPD: 1a) also found GOLD chart — https://imgur.com/a/k6AzZPc — looks also familiar, right?

2)
Recently I found very interesting graphics, based on comparison of the current price chart and Wyckoff charts https://imgur.com/a/opLle8O
This is the second reason why the price can go below 6k

3)
So, where it will stop exactly?
I think, we should keep in mind an area 5000-4800, because this is strong support level and also global 0,236 fib level, what makes it even more powerful
https://www.tradingview.com/x/Ml9uJDfU/
I think this could be the final destination

UPD: 4) https://i.imgur.com/kUyjTO1.png. 80% downtrend is about 4k even..


Of course, this is nothing more than theory. But I hope that was at least interesting.

If you found his post interesting,  I will be really appreciated for +merit.  Wink Have good profits!
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xitrum
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June 15, 2018, 11:10:27 PM
 #2

Hello everybody!

People are trying to guess where is the final point of the current market dump

I have a theory why bitcoin will go down to 5000-4800 levels, I'll try to explain my theory. It based on some observations of past markets

1)
First of all, let's compare Market Cycle graph, Chart BTCUSD 2013-2015, and the current chart. I made an image, https://imgur.com/a/dKBcQ1H
As you can see, a lot of similar points and in general they are VERY SIMILAR
So, Capitulation phase is higher then Anger, Anger is higher then Depression
That's why I can easily imagine, that the price will go below 6000

2)
Recently I found very interesting graphics, based on comparison of the current price chart and Wyckoff charts https://imgur.com/a/opLle8O
This is the second reason why the price can go below 6k

3)
So, where it will stop exactly?
I think, we should keep in mind an area 5000-4800, because this is strong support level and also global 0,236 fib level, what makes it even more powerful
https://www.tradingview.com/x/Ml9uJDfU/
I think this could be the final destination


Of course, this is nothing more than theory. But I hope that was at least interesting.

You can see that the market is down in the long term, bitcoin price after the gas milestone reached $ 19800, then at the current time is constantly falling and stopping at the $ 6500 level. With bitcoin prices still not going through their counterfeit cycle, I believe the market will continue to fall and bitcoin prices will fall further in the coming days.

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June 16, 2018, 01:53:30 AM
 #3

I think if 6k falls that the resistance at around 4,5-5k will have a difficult time in holding. 6k has become a significant support with it being tested multiple times and it will cause a lot of panic if that support level does break. Also drawing comparisons with 2014 is only good to an extent, this is an entirely different market situation we are in now compared to then.

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June 16, 2018, 03:41:24 AM
 #4

I personally think it holds.. but will go back to retest to make everyone panic.. it can certainly fall through I just personally don't think so.. Its easy to see that the price is being manipulated when you see huge read candle spikes on 1 min candles that are 50x the volume of any other on bitfinex.   Since I firmly believe the price is being manipulated.. I think it makes the most sense to not spiral us into a bear market that could last upwards of a year to squeeze just a bit more gains out of it.. If we break I think  5500 could happen in a flash crash but will quickly wick up.  Either way if we need to get lower, lets get on with it.. if it would just flash crash, it would quit hurting the alt market so much as this long drawn out death.

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June 16, 2018, 07:09:02 AM
 #5

I personally think it holds.. but will go back to retest to make everyone panic.. it can certainly fall through I just personally don't think so.. Its easy to see that the price is being manipulated when you see huge read candle spikes on 1 min candles that are 50x the volume of any other on bitfinex.   Since I firmly believe the price is being manipulated.. I think it makes the most sense to not spiral us into a bear market that could last upwards of a year to squeeze just a bit more gains out of it.. If we break I think  5500 could happen in a flash crash but will quickly wick up.  Either way if we need to get lower, lets get on with it.. if it would just flash crash, it would quit hurting the alt market so much as this long drawn out death.

retest to make panic? not sure. panic will be when the price will go below 6
Tytanowy Janusz
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June 16, 2018, 07:44:11 AM
Merited by BTCLovingDude (2), atrocityx (1)
 #6

Hello everybody!

People are trying to guess where is the final point of the current market dump

I have a theory why bitcoin will go down to 5000-4800 levels, I'll try to explain my theory. It based on some observations of past markets

1)
First of all, let's compare Market Cycle graph, Chart BTCUSD 2013-2015, and the current chart. I made an image, https://imgur.com/a/dKBcQ1H
As you can see, a lot of similar points and in general they are VERY SIMILAR
So, Capitulation phase is higher then Anger, Anger is higher then Depression
That's why I can easily imagine, that the price will go below 6000

2)
Recently I found very interesting graphics, based on comparison of the current price chart and Wyckoff charts https://imgur.com/a/opLle8O
This is the second reason why the price can go below 6k

3)
So, where it will stop exactly?
I think, we should keep in mind an area 5000-4800, because this is strong support level and also global 0,236 fib level, what makes it even more powerful
https://www.tradingview.com/x/Ml9uJDfU/
I think this could be the final destination


Of course, this is nothing more than theory. But I hope that was at least interesting.

Very nice, but i alwais try to find and explain to myself why would whale do that, where is his incom etc.
1) Market cycle graph just show how it sould teoriticaly looks like. How it is written in books. Makret likes to be unpredictible. Whales likes to hide their moves. But in most cases when there is no nonmarket risks (regulations, gouverments) or positive news this should like like that. So point for you Smiley

2) Wyckoff charts shows whale acumulation process. Simply shows the easies way to accumulate assets for whales. Those deep that you pointed is for causing panic. To buy last coins/shares on big volume. I think that whale already tried to dump below 6000 (during run to 6100) when he was stapped by big volumen (5k+ bitcoins in 5 min only on bitfinex). When i was reading about Wyckoff i also readed that those "spring" is not nessesary and sometimes happends as fake showing that this was distribution not acumulation process to caus bigger volume and panic.

this huge green candle.

That gave this whale (and every other) a signal that he is not the biggest whale here. And those 6000 will be protected. Thats why i think that others wont try to dump lower than 6k as long as we are in accumulation process (it could also be distribution:) ).
Thats why i think that if (according to Wyckoff we are in acumulation) than final try to destroy support to buy more cheep coins was already done and failed. Than we should go up from here. If we are in distribution process - and i doubt about it - than 5000 could be not enought for whale to strat buy again (only 20% profit)

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June 16, 2018, 10:12:01 AM
 #7

Not bad explanation. I agree with your explanation. A few days ago I opened the chart like you to see what's going on to the market. I saw and compared those chart with the current chart and found the behave like you. Now we need to wait few more times to see upmarket.

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June 17, 2018, 05:17:51 AM
 #8

So far I agree with your explanation but it's too early to give up and panic. Bitcoin is normally has a volatile attitude to counter it just trust and advertise more bitcoin so that many investors are getting involve.
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June 17, 2018, 06:12:47 AM
Merited by Steamtyme (1)
 #9

i gave you merit because of the effort although i disagree with what you said Tongue

why did you choose 2013-2015 chart to compare with 2017-2018 chart? bitcoin was not created in 2013. it started back in 2009 and there are charts for nearly as far back in time. additionally we have had the same "market cycle" multiple times before 2013.

i agree with Tytanowy Janusz about Wyckoff .
also i would like to mention that this type of analysis, generally speaking TA has never worked for bitcoin as much as you like it to.

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June 17, 2018, 09:01:15 AM
 #10

why did you choose 2013-2015 chart to compare with 2017-2018 chart? bitcoin was not created in 2013.
He chose 2013-2015 chart to compare with 2017-2018 chart because he probably thinks that "history will repeat itself" and IMO, 2013-2015 chart is the perfect one to use in order to say that since it is the time span where the biggest rise and dump of price happened(the biggest one before the 2017 bullish run started).
Of course, this is nothing more than theory.
It is an interesting theory but IMO price will not go as far as 4800$ since bitcoin have more real volume and support now.
Tytanowy Janusz
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June 17, 2018, 09:13:23 AM
 #11

why did you choose 2013-2015 chart to compare with 2017-2018 chart? bitcoin was not created in 2013.
He chose 2013-2015 chart to compare with 2017-2018 chart because he probably thinks that "history will repeat itself" and IMO, 2013-2015 chart is the perfect one to use in order to say that since it is the time span where the biggest rise and dump of price happened(the biggest one before the 2017 bullish run started).
Of course, this is nothing more than theory.
It is an interesting theory but IMO price will not go as far as 4800$ since bitcoin have more real volume and support now.

2014 and 2018 has also 1 connection. MTGox case. In 2014 MTGox was hacked and in 2018 he is selling found bitcoins. In september court will decide whats with rest  bitcoins which are waiting on decision on mtgox wallets (https://www.cryptoground.com/mtgox-cold-wallet-monitor/) 137k bitcoins worth close to 1 mld $ at current price.

http://www.businessinsider.com/bitcoin-price-speculation-mt-gox-bitcoin-wont-be-sold-until-september-2018-3?IR=T

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June 17, 2018, 09:49:15 AM
 #12

Your effort to make up this theory is really appreciated. History repeats itself, right? You compare chart 2013-2015 with 2017-2018 but believe me its't 100% because the market are NOT controlled by one single institution that hold Bitcoin the most. Wyckoff theory is not valid here. Learning how to make money out of Bitcoin, it appears to me that Bitcoin is too sensitive to any kind of sentiment either good or bad. So, your theory can be half or totally wrong, however it should be proved with further evidence mathematically.

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June 17, 2018, 10:11:30 AM
 #13

i gave you merit because of the effort although i disagree with what you said Tongue

why did you choose 2013-2015 chart to compare with 2017-2018 chart? bitcoin was not created in 2013. it started back in 2009 and there are charts for nearly as far back in time. additionally we have had the same "market cycle" multiple times before 2013.


I chose 13-15 chart because it was market dump time, the same as now.
Actually, we can find similar charts in gold for example. https://imgur.com/a/k6AzZPc — looks also familiar, right?
And thanks for merit!
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June 17, 2018, 11:48:18 PM
 #14

Hello everybody!

People are trying to guess where is the final point of the current market dump

I have a theory why bitcoin will go down to 5000-4800 levels, I'll try to explain my theory. It based on some observations of past markets

1)
First of all, let's compare Market Cycle graph, Chart BTCUSD 2013-2015, and the current chart. I made an image, https://imgur.com/a/dKBcQ1H
As you can see, a lot of similar points and in general they are VERY SIMILAR
So, Capitulation phase is higher then Anger, Anger is higher then Depression
That's why I can easily imagine, that the price will go below 6000

2)
Recently I found very interesting graphics, based on comparison of the current price chart and Wyckoff charts https://imgur.com/a/opLle8O
This is the second reason why the price can go below 6k

3)
So, where it will stop exactly?
I think, we should keep in mind an area 5000-4800, because this is strong support level and also global 0,236 fib level, what makes it even more powerful
https://www.tradingview.com/x/Ml9uJDfU/
I think this could be the final destination


Of course, this is nothing more than theory. But I hope that was at least interesting.

If you like this post I will be really appreciated for +merit. Have good profits!

You can see that bitcoin prices are dropping sharply in recent days, the market is in the long-term bear market, after the bitcoin price reached $ 20000 has been continuously dropped and there was a time decrease. 70% of its value to the $ 6000 mark and the current price of bitcoin is at $ 6500. Market capitalization does not increase this suggests that bitcoin prices will likely continue to fall sharply in the coming days.
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June 17, 2018, 11:57:26 PM
 #15

Hello everybody!

People are trying to guess where is the final point of the current market dump

I have a theory why bitcoin will go down to 5000-4800 levels, I'll try to explain my theory. It based on some observations of past markets

1)
First of all, let's compare Market Cycle graph, Chart BTCUSD 2013-2015, and the current chart. I made an image, https://imgur.com/a/dKBcQ1H
As you can see, a lot of similar points and in general they are VERY SIMILAR
So, Capitulation phase is higher then Anger, Anger is higher then Depression
That's why I can easily imagine, that the price will go below 6000

2)
Recently I found very interesting graphics, based on comparison of the current price chart and Wyckoff charts https://imgur.com/a/opLle8O
This is the second reason why the price can go below 6k

3)
So, where it will stop exactly?
I think, we should keep in mind an area 5000-4800, because this is strong support level and also global 0,236 fib level, what makes it even more powerful
https://www.tradingview.com/x/Ml9uJDfU/
I think this could be the final destination


Of course, this is nothing more than theory. But I hope that was at least interesting.

If you like this post I will be really appreciated for +merit. Have good profits!

Sorry did you say will? How are you determined that it will go down than that. Well i too think so too but i will not share negativity along side this forum sharing information are preferable but not bad opinions that can affect bitcoins reputation. Tracing the facts about bitcoin isn't a crime but we must swallow our prides to create good ideas about bitcoin because we are the one who will benefit to such method.

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June 18, 2018, 12:56:38 AM
 #16

I can't tell what is the bottom for BTC price, all I know is that this huge downtrend from 20K down to 6K (and possibly lower) will not be followed by a spike in price like we see with some altcoins, BTC tends to go up in a parabolic movement, looking at the chart right now, a parabolic trend has not touched its bottom yet.

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June 18, 2018, 07:23:48 AM
 #17

I can't tell what is the bottom for BTC price, all I know is that this huge downtrend from 20K down to 6K (and possibly lower) will not be followed by a spike in price like we see with some altcoins, BTC tends to go up in a parabolic movement, looking at the chart right now, a parabolic trend has not touched its bottom yet.

The parabolic movement has started from level $1000
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June 18, 2018, 07:26:10 AM
 #18

Sorry did you say will? How are you determined that it will go down than that. Well I too think so too but i will not share negativity along side this forum sharing information are preferable but not bad opinions that can affect bitcoins reputation. Tracing the facts about bitcoin isn't a crime but we must swallow our prides to create good ideas about bitcoin because we are the one who will benefit to such method.

I don't want to generate FUD but it's better to be prepared for this scenario and treat this as a market cycle.
If it won't happen, it will be great
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June 18, 2018, 07:49:46 AM
 #19

But the fact that it went down below in the past like this doesn't exactly means that It will again go down like that.
The thing with a decentralized body is that it cannot be predicted that what's goonna Happen, therefore I don't think I would take the old graph as a means of getting to know what could happen.
I personally think that Bitcoins have seen a lot of downs this year and I think that quota is Preety full, we need to see all that good news coming in and the price rising like never before.
Well this is also *I hope so * no one's out there can predict it untill and unless they own more than half the Bitcoins in the market.

P.S. if the graph came out to be same there could be some regulations from someone I guess , maybe all the big whales are coming in and seeing what they can do , or it could even be Satoshi nakamato manipulating the market by himself ,"
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June 18, 2018, 02:05:04 PM
 #20

I can't tell what is the bottom for BTC price, all I know is that this huge downtrend from 20K down to 6K (and possibly lower) will not be followed by a spike in price like we see with some altcoins, BTC tends to go up in a parabolic movement, looking at the chart right now, a parabolic trend has not touched its bottom yet.
No one can know about the dept of bitcoin, but still i am sure that bitcoin price is not going to drop below 6000$ but will hopefully start increasing very soon. Because investors know about the potential of bitcoin and therefore they will never let it go below 6000$. I think that investment in bitcoin in current price is a good decision, and will surely give you a good profit.
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