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June 16, 2018, 12:45:04 AM |
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January Bubble Wasn’t Really a Bubble
During the interview, which was focused on the economics of the cryptocurrency market, Novogratz was asked by Schatzker about the criticism from skeptics regarding the rapid movement of the valuation of the cryptocurrency market and the bubble-like trend of bitcoin in early 2018.
In response, Novogratz stated that if the January bull rally of bitcoin, Ethereum, and other cryptocurrencies is considered as a bubble, it can be described as the 1996 dot com bubble which occurred prior to the 1999 bubble that led the dot com bubble to reach a valuation of $6 trillion before it crashed to $1 trillion.
Eventually, Novogratz stated that the cryptocurrency market will rebound from its major correction in mid-2018 and surpass previous all-time highs to reach a $20 trillion market valuation. At its peak, the cryptocurrency market was valued at around $900 billion. A $20 trillion valuation would require a 20-fold increase from its previous all-time high.
“[Cryptocurrency] is a global revolution. The internet bubble was only a US thing. It was rich US people participating. [Cryptocurrency] is global. There are kids in Bangladesh buying coins. It is monstrous in Tokyo, in South Korea, in China, in India, and in Russia. We’ve got a global market and a global mania. This will feel like a bubble when we’re at $20 trillion,” said Novogratz.
$20 Trillion Will Not be Easy
While Novogratz is often considered as an optimist and a bull investor in the cryptocurrency sector, he has offered evaluation of the cryptocurrency market based on real indicators, statistics, and realistic overview of the industry.
Novogratz emphasized that despite the growing demand from institutional investors for cryptocurrencies, actual investments that have come in from institutional investors have virtually been non-existent, and the most recent bull rally was triggered by retail investors or individual traders.
Many experts including Blocktower founder Ari Paul have noted in the past that the entrance of institutional investors would require stable and robust custodian solutions. Given that many cryptocurrency businesses including Coinbase and conglomerates in the traditional finance sector such as Susquehanna have already started to build custodian solutions, it is likely that institutional investors will enter the market in the mid-term.
“It won’t go there ($20 trillion) right away. What is going to happen is, one of these intrepid pension funds, somebody who is a market leader, is going to say, you know what? We’ve got custody, Goldman Sachs is involved, Bloomberg has an index I can track my performance against, and they’re going to buy. And all of the sudden, the second guy buys. The same FOMO that you saw in retail [will be demonstrated by institutional investors],” explained Novogratz.
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