FINANCIAL COLLAPSE FEAR MONGERING NEEDS TO STOP

[zachcope]

But you may ask why have inflation in the first place? why money print?, this is done to have velocity of money, meaning it promotes people to spend and not hoard money, giving incentive for people to actually start businesses to catch some of that consumer spending.

This isn't an explanation.

If individuals in the market wish to defer consumption until a later date, or wish to invest in businesses (perhaps interest from a functional lending bank rather than one addicted to cheap debt) why is that some kind of market failure?

Perhaps excess consumption and environmental catastrophe, as well as impending poverty in old age, is a consequence of this.

Keynsians have such a wacky interpretation of economics and the free market.

[toomsie]

I look at the rate of broken families and single parent hood, aging population and low savings interest rates.
The difficulty in getting a job( Assuming baby boomers are not lying about how they walk from one job into another
at their lunch break).

That's all I need to know, that's all.

[cdog]

http://www.pbs.org/newshour/making-sense/ben-bernanke-as-easter-bunny-why-the-fed-cant-prevent-the-coming-crash/

[Misesian]

All you need to understand about an economy is that goods are paid for with goods, you cannot consume something without producing something first, if you want to eat you have to hunt or grow food, if you want to buy food you have to have first produced something to trade for the food, this is Say's law of markets. Money is a tool developed by the market as a way of assigning exchange values to goods so we don't have to barter, money derives its value from the goods you can exchange it for. If you accept this than all the economic schools of thought that rely on manipulation of money to produce wealth become nonsense and it helps to understand the real problems of the US economy. The US main problem is that it does not produce enough hence the trade deficits, this is because of high tax rates and excessive regulation making the US unable to compete with the rest of the global market, the persistent trade deficits mean that the US population have also been consuming too much, capital has been flowing out of the economy so the people have in fact been getting poorer, but what the government and the central bank have done is pump liquidity into the market to make up for the loss of capital in the economy, they have encouraged Americans to consume more despite the loss of capital and reduction of wealth, of course this is unsustainable and the problems will come to light when lenders realise America will never pay back it's debts of if it does it'll pay them back by printing money, but that money will have no value because the US doesn't produce anything anymore and money derives it value for the goods you can exchange it for.

[stompix]

I look at the rate of broken families and single parent hood, aging population and low savings interest rates.
The difficulty in getting a job( Assuming baby boomers are not lying about how they walk from one job into another
at their lunch break).

That's all I need to know, that's all.

Yeah , same with people complaining about our food and how dangerous for our health junk food  is , how toxic the air is and god knows why life expectancy if growing year by year.
Also , In my country which was hit pretty hard in 2007-2010 we have the highest rate of newborns this century.

[jboss]

Core CPI in the US is misleading, it excludes volatile products like foodstuffs and gas.

Further core cpi is a composite of weighted items.

40% is too low. Gas was about 1.50$ in 2001.
It's around 4$ now.

That's around 200%. - Inline with shadow alternative stats.

Core CPI better measures something like a car. A 2002 m3 cost around 43k new - least options. now the coupe runs around 61. that's near 40%.

Personally, I tend to discount core cpi since those usually are capital purchases vs 'volatile things' you need day to day and do impact you.

Someone please correct my mistake please.

[teukon]

Don't be afraid of studying a bit of basic economics no matter how much some fear mongerer wants you to think otherwise, the more you are educated the better you can spot people trying to push you in directions for their own benefit.

Good advice, although I would substitute "the more you are educated" with "the greater your understanding".

[aminorex]

The 'shadow stats' inflation graph is showing ~9% per year inflation in the US since 2001

That is simply false:

Meanwhile the real numbers average ~2.5% which gives us an increase of 40% which actually jives with reality over the last 13 years.

That's ludicrous.  Perhaps the average salary has risen 40% but the average cost of living has gone up far more than the shadow stats numbers indicate.

It certainly does not jive with the reality I am experiencing.  If you will recall, we just went through a housing price collapse.  Yet my house is assessed almost exactly 2x higher than 14 years ago, having gone from 650 to 1280.   I could buy a pack of cigarettes for 1.80 in 2000, but now pay 14.  I could buy a gallon of gas for 1.2, but today paid 3.5.  My monthly utilities went from 45 to 160 in that time.  

Holding fiat is insanely self-destructive.  Yet the velocity of money plummets because everyone fears for their job, and everyone has so much debt that they live from paycheck-to-paycheck.  There's no slack.  My salary went from 60 to 300 during the past 13 years, and so kept up with inflation (barely) but most people I know have salaries between 1x and 2x what they earned in 2000.   This is clearly reflected in the Fed's GINI numbers.  The beneficiaries of QE largess are the very wealthy.  The vast majority of people see prices rising, and wages frozen, endagered by redundancy,

[aminorex]

the more you are educated the better you can spot people trying to push you in directions for their own benefit.

The more deceitful propaganda you consume, the more likely it becomes that your mind will be twisted, deformed and disabled. 

[aminorex]

why have inflation in the first place? why money print?, this is done to have velocity of money, meaning it promotes people to spend and not hoard money, giving incentive for people to actually start businesses to catch some of that consumer spending.

Then it isn't working.  According to the Fed stats the velocity of money in the U.S. has plummeted under QE.

[Impaler]

The 'shadow stats' inflation graph is showing ~9% per year inflation in the US since 2001

That is simply false:

I was clearly referring to the 1980-based graph you Twit.

If you want to defend the 1990-based graph as the truth then admit that the other graph is complete BS first.

[aminorex]

I was clearly referring to the 1980-based graph you Twit.

If you want to defend the 1990-based graph as the truth then admit that the other graph is complete BS first.

The 1980 based graph actually corresponds to the facts much better than does the 1990 based graph.  It is also clearly averaging less than 9% annually.  I think some people are confused by a failure to understand integration, or the statistical mean, or geometric averaging.

[ScaryHash]

The economy has already collapsed, you just haven't realized it yet.

That's because of the slow inflation that has been robbing people of purchasing power ever since the Federal Reserve was created. The only thing that has been preventing people from realizing it is the continual debasement of the dollar, and also technological advancements in productivity. Bpth of those forces happen slowly, so people do not realize it.

But, if you took what $20 bought in 1913 (the passing of the Federal Reserve act), and compared it to what $20 bought today, you would realize it.

Back in 1913, $20 bought a man a nice suit, a nice dinner, and a nice hotel room for the night. Try doing that with $20 today.

Of course, if you kept that $20 in gold from 1913, you would still be able to afford a nice suit, a nice dinner and a nice hotel room for the night.

Moral of the story? Gold does not lie, but Congress does, and fiat paper loses value.

Have a nice day.

[Impaler]

I was clearly referring to the 1980-based graph you Twit.

If you want to defend the 1990-based graph as the truth then admit that the other graph is complete BS first.

The 1980 based graph actually corresponds to the facts much better than does the 1990 based graph.  It is also clearly averaging less than 9% annually.  I think some people are confused by a failure to understand integration, or the statistical mean, or geometric averaging.

So have you made up your mind now to defend the 1980 graph?  If so Do you geometric averaging and SHOW YOUR MATH, if you want to nitpick my visual graph reading estimate, which is if anything conservative.

[Honeypot]

The economy has already collapsed, you just haven't realized it yet.

That's because of the slow inflation that has been robbing people of purchasing power ever since the Federal Reserve was created. The only thing that has been preventing people from realizing it is the continual debasement of the dollar, and also technological advancements in productivity. Bpth of those forces happen slowly, so people do not realize it.

But, if you took what $20 bought in 1913 (the passing of the Federal Reserve act), and compared it to what $20 bought today, you would realize it.

Back in 1913, $20 bought a man a nice suit, a nice dinner, and a nice hotel room for the night. Try doing that with $20 today.

Of course, if you kept that $20 in gold from 1913, you would still be able to afford a nice suit, a nice dinner and a nice hotel room for the night.

Moral of the story? Gold does not lie, but Congress does, and fiat paper loses value.

Have a nice day.

That applies to virtually every good sized economies and nations on earth.

[aminorex]

That applies to virtually every good sized economies and nations on earth.

Yet people persist in defending the power of the central banks to wantonly destroy and cruelly seize wealth from the population to enrich a very few amoral sub-human oligarchs.

[snakebit]

Are you trolling OP? Unfortunately some have not learned from our past mistakes. The banks have gotten more clever this time around and instead of selling Mortgage Backed Securities to pensions and hedge funds, they're selling it directly to the Federal Reserve. 85 Billion dollars per month, or a little over a trillion a year at 0% interest rates.

When you borrow from the FED for nothing, and charge your cardholder 20%, anyone can make money.
 
Even if you are only charging 9%, you are stealing them blind with profits relative to cost.

What's a bank with billions of dollars to do? They buy a bunch of useless shit. Drink beer, soda, or energy drinks? JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs have skimmed millions out of the Aluminum market.

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/07/27/opinion/goldman-sachss-aluminum-pile.html?_r=0

If natural laws of economics were in place, banking would be extremely competitive and it would not be very profitable.

But inflation is low, some say. Yes, the official CPI numbers are low, but they are rigged. The price of housing and rent has gone up. The price of petrol, electricity, even the price of printing a dollar is up. Banks can just selectively buy assets and point to the CPI "But look! the CPI is low and inflation isn't hitting it's target"

Ever wonder why rent is sky high while you're unemployed or underemployed and barely able to make payments? Banks are buying up a shitload of houses and rent them out for record profits.

http://business.financialpost.com/2013/04/23/us-rentals/




The median asking rent for US vacant housing units just hit an all time high of $735 per month.




There's no way out. Had the US gov't let the banks fail and endured a fast, hard, deep recession starting in 2008, while there's no guarantee because things were already pretty fucked, there was at least a chance to recover. There is no chance now.

So the system will fail, and do so spectacularly, with more and more insane financial inputs until it just suddenly collapses. In the end, banks will try to suck every last dollar out of anything that moves and we're all along for the ride. Short of a global revolution where we go back to sound economic policies such as abolishing central banking, putting a stop to deficit spending with 0% interest rates, and replace the current system with a resource based economy with Bitcoin as a part of it, shit will only get progressively worse. Actually shit will get worse anyway, but thanks to the help of Satoshi, at least we can at least throw off the shackles of .gov and the banksters.

Utter chaos or controlled crash, I keep coming to the same conclusion over and over.  The only difference is the timeframe. The more chaotic the events, the faster we reach the inevitable conclusion.  Thus, the most chaotic of outcomes might be 2 years or so. The more controlled may be 20. Reality will likely be somewhere in between.



TL;DR I'm not buying OP's perspective on inflation. Shit will only get progressively worse. SOMETHING will happen at some point to trigger a quick escalation of our already collapsing global economy. The question we're all asking is when, and constantly seeking clues... At least I am.

[Impaler]

Your graph shows an inflation rate of 3.4% per year for Rentals over a 24 year span, and appears to have no correction for the changing size of houses which have more then doubled since the 50's, we would expect rentals to have grown proportionally and thus we can easily explain a full percentage point or more that way leaving us again with the 2.5% official number passing the sanity check.

Bitch about the inflation rate that ACTUALLY exists, and the failure of wages to KEEP UP WITH INFLATION if you want, but don't throw out BS numbers and conspiracy accusations that serve more as a measure of your gullibility and anger then the economy.  Your making yourselves look like clowns who don't know the first thing about math or economics and this discredits all your predictions and proscriptions for the economy.

[stompix]

Your graph shows an inflation rate of 3.4% per year for Rentals over a 24 year span, and appears to have no correction for the changing size of houses which have more then doubled since the 50's, we would expect rentals to have grown proportionally and thus we can easily explain a full percentage point or more that way leaving us again with the 2.5% official number passing the sanity check.

Bitch about the inflation rate that ACTUALLY exists, and the failure of wages to KEEP UP WITH INFLATION if you want, but don't throw out BS numbers and conspiracy accusations that serve more as a measure of your gullibility and anger then the economy.  Your making yourselves look like clowns who don't know the first thing about math or economics and this discredits all your predictions and proscriptions for the economy.

You're not just keeping it up with the times.
It's not longer the time when people cared about what the material contain not the title , it's time for materials that scream "DISASTER" "COLLAPSE" "pANICC" "Run for your livesss" with fake evidence behind it.
People want to see disasters want to see collapse in every damn numbers.
Those people have said that the us will fail in 2000, 2001, 2002 and they can't understand why is 2014 the us is still there , so it's the EU and the euro.

I sometimes think if it's not turning into a diseases , this unstoppable desire for disasters.

[johliks]

The US financial collapse fear mongering was started by a select few in order to run up gold and silver prices (specifically). We saw the gold/silver bubble burst. Now we are seeing a second wave of this fear mongering because of bitcoin/alt-coins in order to run up their prices. Is the same thing going to happen to crypto?

Ultimately I think there will be a global financial meltdown but it's only starting to brew.

Disclaimer: I own crypto, gold, silver, copper, land, ammo, fiat, stocks.