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Author Topic: FINANCIAL COLLAPSE FEAR MONGERING NEEDS TO STOP  (Read 6249 times)
hamiltino (OP)
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February 04, 2014, 02:43:35 PM
Last edit: February 04, 2014, 03:12:29 PM by hamiltino
 #1

I have watched, listened and read a lot of fear mongering on the internet about economic collapse, if anything I hope to dispel those myths today by showing some graphs.

What makes a good economy using an inflationary model?
A good economy should have inflation(consumer prices) increase at similar rates to the average wage rate of the economy. This would mean that the rising prices of goods and services will be compensated by the increase in the national average wage rate over time. But you may ask why have inflation in the first place? why money print?, this is done to have velocity of money, meaning it promotes people to spend and not hoard money, giving incentive for people to actually start businesses to catch some of that consumer spending.

A comparison between Australia and USA in terms of inflation and wages

An example of a good economy: Australia.

Wages: Average weekly wages.


Consumer prices/inflation:


As you can see the rate of change over time between both inflation and wages is very similar. This allows for a stable economy as it allows for velocity of money while still maintaining affordable prices for consumers.

An example of a not so good economy: USA
Wages:



Consumer prices/inflation:


The US economy inflation rate has actually been quite low and stable, the problem is that wage rates do not keep up, this is causing more disparity in wealth compared to Australia. What needs to happen in the USA is an increase in the national average wage rate to match inflation. There are ofcourse other variables that need to be considered such as unemployment rates but the general point i am trying to make is that these are the things that need to improved on in the USA. Don't be afraid of studying a bit of basic economics no matter how much some fear mongerer wants you to think otherwise, the more you are educated the better you can spot people trying to push you in directions for their own benefit.

And in case you are wondering, I am a crypto-currency advocate because i prefer not to have all the important economic decisions and control of money printing come from a central authority.












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Jungian
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February 04, 2014, 03:54:47 PM
 #2

How the hell do you think that dispeled anything?


Meanwhile - here is the real inflation





The real unemployment




I think Monero (XMR) is very interesting.
https://moneroeconomy.com/faq/why-monero-matters
hamiltino (OP)
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February 04, 2014, 04:07:09 PM
 #3

Can you comment on the validity of the shadowstats?

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Jungian
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February 04, 2014, 04:17:06 PM
 #4

Can you comment on the validity of the shadowstats?

They base their statistics based on the methodology used by pre-Clinton administrations without for example hedonistic regression.

I think Monero (XMR) is very interesting.
https://moneroeconomy.com/faq/why-monero-matters
hamiltino (OP)
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February 04, 2014, 04:49:06 PM
 #5

fuck it lets run for the hills.

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February 04, 2014, 04:54:19 PM
 #6

fuck it lets run for the hills.

Very much agree, since Fear Mongering actually enables people to build and engage in the economy.  Grin
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February 04, 2014, 07:55:19 PM
 #7

If the economy is doing so well then why are the global markets having so many problems? Or are you just going claim we need to print more money to 'boost confidence' in the markets? People like you who follow the economic ideology of those in charge are precisely why everyone who can think for themselves is convinced the economy is going to collapse.

I hope this was a troll, I may have been baited :S Tongue
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February 05, 2014, 12:01:16 AM
 #8

Those graphs don't disprove anything. Inflation punishes saving and I haven't seen any proof that it actually is good for the economy. People save money so they can spend it on something like starting a business for themselves or doing something else with it, you don't hoard for the sake of hoarding alone. Inflation just pushes people more towards going into debt to start a business or whatever and combined with interest this creates a horrible unsustainable economy which consumes the future in favor of the present until the whole system collapses. We are very close to that point right now. Sticking your head into the sand and saying everything is fine won't help anything.

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February 05, 2014, 06:04:24 PM
 #9

Would OP care to explain why he used the post-80's manipulated inflation rate rather than the real inflation rate? I mean, I would just LOVE to believe that YoY inflation in Argentina is only 10% like the government says... lol. Give me a break. Use legit data then we can have a discussion on how healthy the economy is Cool
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February 05, 2014, 06:06:30 PM
 #10

Any reason OP you are showing AU stats from '08 and USA stats from '12 ?

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February 06, 2014, 05:38:18 PM
 #11

Warning people about the inevitable end of this total charade of a financial system needs to stop? Don't think so. This is not the time for ignorance on the most important and potentially devastating event of our time. Everything is about to change radically.

The economy has already been collapsing for a decade, it is simply accelerating now as the great fake economy built on worthless money by criminal bankers and corporatists enters the final death spiral.

Australia is far from "good", I don't think you really did any research here OP.


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February 06, 2014, 11:09:58 PM
 #12

The 'shadow stats' inflation graph is showing ~9% per year inflation in the US since 2001, if that were true then today prices would be TRIPLE what they were in 2001.  This is patently absurd.  Meanwhile the real numbers average ~2.5% which gives us an increase of 40% which actually jives with reality over the last 13 years.  I think peoples inability to understand compounding leads them to believe these inflated inflation rate numbers.

 
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February 06, 2014, 11:32:19 PM
 #13

Very interesting information. I do have one request though. Could you normalize the first chart in the USA graphs to match the first chart in the Australia graphs? I think that would be much more beneficial as a read. (Australia is average weekly wage, where as USA is average hourly wage.) This might be a little misleading considering that there are some that work part-time, some work salaried (and are essentially paid for 40 hours of work a week) and some work tons of overtime.

Nonetheless, I agree that it is definitely an issue that living costs inflate at a steady rate whereas wages do not follow the same trend that it needs to. I've seen it many times throughout the years.
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February 07, 2014, 12:28:04 AM
 #14

fuck it lets run for the hills.

OMG... you are serious... you didnt know about the faking of inflation? That is NOT a conspiracy theory (!). Lol, that is true... even the way they calculate inflation and other statistics is laughable
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February 07, 2014, 12:38:33 AM
 #15

The 'shadow stats' inflation graph is showing ~9% per year inflation in the US since 2001, if that were true then today prices would be TRIPLE what they were in 2001.  This is patently absurd.  Meanwhile the real numbers average ~2.5% which gives us an increase of 40% which actually jives with reality over the last 13 years.  I think peoples inability to understand compounding leads them to believe these inflated inflation rate numbers.

Hm...

Thats interesting, but did you actually traced price of anything from 2001?

Because from i have learned i belive the official numbers are manipulated , look at the great video cleatly explaining it with simple words

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pwI3Nya5L9g

So did anybody tracked the real prices of anything from 2001? Because i belive the shadowstats.com and if it says that the price have in total tripled from 2001, then i belive so... (im not from usa though)


Did you follow any prices?
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February 07, 2014, 02:12:57 AM
 #16

No I simply asserted that is is ABSURD to say their prices for 'all consumer products in AGGREGATE' which is what CPI is measuring has averaged 9% for the last 13 years.  If I started going into the weeds I could certainly find A product that has tripled, something which has doubled, another which has dropped by half, I could show anything by anecdotes.  

It is in our common perception of the value of money and the average of prices that should be used to do a basic sanity check in the same way I would reject a claim that people have been getting 9% taller each year, because the extrapolated change over a time period that I personally experienced is FAR beyond what I would have failed to notice.  The official number sounds sane but it could easily be off by a whole percentage point, it is simply not rejected while the Shadow number is rejected.

Think of the implications of a 3 fold increase in aggregate prices, do you think a person who made $5 an hour in 2001 would have exactly the SAME standard of living as someone today making $15 cause that's what ShadowStats is saying.  Or take a look at house prices which everyone agrees were in a bubble when they were increasing around 9% a year, according to ShadowStats their was no Bubble, houses were just managing to hold their value during that period and before (during the 90's) they were becoming cheaper in a real sense.

 
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February 08, 2014, 12:51:05 AM
 #17

fuck it lets run for the hills.

Ha ha ha, this, in combination with your OP, is a legendary post! Read it in the morning, burst out laughing and have been giggling all day long about it!

Props to you to be ready to see what's in front of your eyes.

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February 08, 2014, 01:55:44 AM
 #18

No I simply asserted that is is ABSURD to say their prices for 'all consumer products in AGGREGATE' which is what CPI is measuring has averaged 9% for the last 13 years.  If I started going into the weeds I could certainly find A product that has tripled, something which has doubled, another which has dropped by half, I could show anything by anecdotes. 

It is in our common perception of the value of money and the average of prices that should be used to do a basic sanity check in the same way I would reject a claim that people have been getting 9% taller each year, because the extrapolated change over a time period that I personally experienced is FAR beyond what I would have failed to notice.  The official number sounds sane but it could easily be off by a whole percentage point, it is simply not rejected while the Shadow number is rejected.

Think of the implications of a 3 fold increase in aggregate prices, do you think a person who made $5 an hour in 2001 would have exactly the SAME standard of living as someone today making $15 cause that's what ShadowStats is saying.  Or take a look at house prices which everyone agrees were in a bubble when they were increasing around 9% a year, according to ShadowStats their was no Bubble, houses were just managing to hold their value during that period and before (during the 90's) they were becoming cheaper in a real sense.

Yes, the tripled price sounds in 13 years sounds believable to me overall. The thing is, memory is a tricky thing and people get accustomed to circumstances and prices really quickly. Can I ask you how old you are? Have you earned your living expenses yourself in 2001 (if you do now)? If not, it's even easier to be deceived.

Take the stuff that gets cheaper each year because of "technical advance" reasons out of the equation - that stuff shouldn't even be in a basket! It's like nowadays inflation baskets consist of 3 flatscreen TVs and an iPhone...

Take rent, public transport, food instead. It's hard to believe, because people forget quickly (just like who lied to them before the last election), but it's very believable... Oh, and I can guarantee you a billion percent that shadowstats is WAY closer to the truth than official numbers. 2% or so!? Who could even remotely believe that?

In regards to housing - there you have it, as you say yourself, unbelievable inflation! That risen price already IS the inflation though, the market is pumped up by a money bubble. Basically, the MONEY is in a bubble, which creates all the other bubbles, with stocks, with goods, with houses... The difference between a house and a banana is just that you won't ever resell the banana anyways, it's eaten and gone (and houses are a special case in that regard as they can be resold without any significant reduction for price for you having used them, as opposed to, say, cars).

The Shadowstats statistics is not just some made up number by John Williams - it's just the governments own accounting, before they started to fake the numbers a little bit more each year. To claim that those numbers are not true means to claim that the government on purpose waaaaay overcalculated inflation during the 80ies - by 6% or so more than it actually was! Which is not in the government's best interest at all. It's certainly not how governments act.

Btw, inflation plays into many more economic calculations, which are all subsequently MASSIVELY tainted! Think of the GDP number, for example, or the P/E ratio, which tells us if the stock market is cheap or expensive: All faked by the means of inflation.

The numbers are sad, but they are true.
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February 08, 2014, 06:10:52 AM
 #19

People clearly delude themselves into believing what they want to believe too.  I was graduating High-school in 2001 and can assure you that the the $5 an hour jobs I had back then is not equivalent to a $15 an hour one now.  My last job was for $20 an hour and if ShadowStats was right I would have had the equivalent of ~$6.50 and would have seen only marginal increase in my standard of living, instead I could live in an apartment twice the size, eat lunch out every day and save money, at $5 I had to fight to keep any kind of roof over my head and eat mostly Ramen noodles.

You completely fail to understand the point about the housing bubble, housing obviously went up in price everyone knows that, but if Shadow is right about inflation then housing never had a BUBBLE because the rate of increase in housing would have been matched by ALL goods and their would be no relative change in the cost of houses.  But houses clearly were going up faster then OTHER stuff.

Have a look at these Debunkings, it looks like the ShadowStats creator may simply be making some really basic errors of math to create his BS numbers.

http://www.peakprosperity.com/forum/80408/shadowstats-inflation-closer-truth-cpi

And the simple analysis of the Housing bubble vs inflation

http://blog.jparsons.net/2011/03/shadow-stats-debunked-part-i.html

 
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February 08, 2014, 06:37:09 AM
 #20

People that talk shit and bitch all day about looking forward to collapse of economies are no where to be found when things start looking up in a solid way.

It's just a pleb mentality of wanting to see their betters fall. Weak fucks.
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