Nordfx broker: news, weekly Analytics

[Stan NordFX]

Forex Forecast and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for April 29 - May 03, 2019

First, a review of last week’s events:
 
- EUR/USD. As said in the previous forecast, the euro has returned to the boundaries of the four-month downward channel. And 70% of the experts, supported by graphical analysis, considered that in such a situation, the European currency would continue to lose ground, dropping into the zone of the 2019 lows, 1.1175-1.1185. Expectations of strong economic statistics from the US were pushing the euro down for the whole week, confirming the validity of such a forecast. The pair even exceeded the “plan”, dropping to the level of 1.1110 by the middle of Friday, April 26.
The Released macroeconomic data did turn out to be quite positive. Orders for capital products rose from 0.1% to 1.3%, while the GDP increased by one percent compared to the previous quarter (3.2% compared to 2.2%). However, the market considered that the goals set had already been achieved. Positions were closed before the weekend, and after a slight correction, the pair set a final point at the level of 1.1147;
 
- GBP/USD. The forecast for this pair was also quite accurate. Recall that the overwhelming majority of experts (75%) had voted that the pair would be able to overcome the medium-term level of support in the area of 1.2975, after which it would rush to the zone of 1.2770-1.2830.
That is exactly what happened: on Tuesday, April 23, the pair broke through this support and abruptly went down. The week low was fixed at 1.2865, and the pair completed the five-day period at the level of 1.2915;
 
- USD/JPY. Analysts' opinions on the behavior of this pair last week were almost equally divided: a third voted for its growth, a third were for a fall, and a third for a continuation of the lateral movement. As sometimes happens, it was such a “blurred” forecast that turned out to be the most correct. At first, the pair moved in a very narrow side channel only 15 points wide. Then, the volatility gradually started to grow, and the pair rose to the level of 112.40, and then, probably due to the fall in the pair with the yuan (USD/CNY), the dollar slipped to the Japanese yen as well, touching a local bottom at 111.35. After that, the pair returned to the horizon 111.60, having lost about 30 points in a week;
 
- Cryptocurrencies. As has been said many times, the cryptocurrency movement is largely motivated by the news background. At the same time, 65% of experts believed that even with positive news, the BTC/USD would fail to break through the resistance of $5,500 in the near future. In case the news background gets worse, the bears would try to press the pair to support $4,600.
In general, this forecast can be considered correct. It was in the middle of the week that several attempts were made to consolidate above the upper boundary of this echelon, and the pair stayed around $5,650 for some time. However, after it became known on Thursday, April 25, that the State of New York Attorney's office accused the Bitfinex cryptocurrency exchange of hiding the disappearance of $850 million of corporate and client funds, the Bitcoin quotes flew down. On some exchanges, the BTC price dropped to $4,600, and at Bitfinex itself, the collapse was stopped at $5,065.
The exchange management completely denies any losses, stating that these funds have not been lost, but confiscated. And the exchange makes every effort to return them and intends to defend its good name in court. The final of this criminal story has yet to be learned. In the meantime, the pair quotes have returned to the level of the beginning of the week, to the $5,370 zone.
As for the major altcoins, after the collapse, unlike Bitcoin, they were not able to fully restore the lost positions. Ethereum (ETH/USD) lost about 9.5% during the week, Litecoin (LTC/USD) fell by 11.0%, and Ripple (XRP/USD) lost about the same amount (10.4%).

 
As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of a number of analysts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:
 
- EUR/USD. The relatively good performance of the US economy and growing concerns about the Eurozone economy and, in particular, Germany, are forcing investors to look at the dollar as a protection against global economic and political risks. Thus, on April 28, extraordinary parliamentary elections will be held in Spain, and in a month, elections to the European Parliament will take place, fueled by the Brexit problem. The ambiguity of the outcome of these events pressures the euro.
As for the United States, here the market will look at the rhetoric of the Fed, the next meeting of which will take place on May 1. The focus there will be the issue of a possible interest rate reduction. Among other events of the coming week, it is necessary to note the publication of the report on inflation in the United States on Monday April 29; the data on the Eurozone GDP and the Consumer Price Index (HICP) of Germany on Tuesday; and the data on the Eurozone consumer market and on the US labor market (including NFP) on Friday, May 3.
Last week, the EUR/USD pair dropped to the level of 1.1110, which is not only the 2019 low, but also the lowest value since mid-2017. And 75% of analysts, supported by 90% of indicators on D1, believe that the fall will not stop here, and the pair may first reach the lower boundary of the downward channel in the 1.1080 area, and then go even lower, to the zone 1.0970-1.1030.
The remaining 25% of analysts are inclined to believe that the pair may linger in the range of 1.1110-1.1250 with Pivot Point in the area of 1.1175 for some time. Graphical analysis on H4 and 10% of oscillators on D1, which signal that the pair is oversold, adhere to the same point of view.
It should be noted that in the transition to the medium-term forecast, the number of Euro-bulls, who believe that the pair will return to the zone 1.1400-1.1600, is almost 55%;

- GBP/USD. The pair has broken through the medium-term support level at 1.2975, and the overwhelming majority of experts (90%), supported by 100% of the oscillators and trend indicators on D1, believe that it will definitely retest the low of April 25 at 1.2865 and, if successful, sink to 1.2770-1.2830. The opposite point of view is expressed by 10% of analysts and graphical analysis on D1 , indicating the zone 1.2985-1.3015 as the closest target. The next resistance is 1.3065.
As before, 60% of experts still hope in the medium term for the Bank of England to raise interest rates and, as a result, strengthen the British currency. The next meeting of the regulator will be held on Thursday 02 May. However, the likelihood of a rate hike is close to zero already this week;
 
- USD/JPY. There is still no clarity about the movement of this pair, and the opinions of the experts are almost equally divided. A small advantage (55%) is with the bulls, expecting it to return to the level of 112.00, and, possibly, to the April 24 high at the height of 112.40.
45% of analysts and graphical analysis on H4 strongly disagree with such a forecast, they believe that the dollar will continue to fall, first to the level of 111.35, and then to the level of 110.85;
 
- Cryptocurrencies. In a situation of uncertainty, experts are divided into three equal camps: the bears (their target for Bitcoin is $4,800), the bulls (target $5,700) and the side trend supporters (Pivot Point $5,300). At the same time, 70% of respondents believe that the BTC/USD will rise above the level of $6,000 within May.


Roman Butko, NordFX


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #usdchf #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin

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[Stan NordFX]

Basel III Standard: Will Gold Become Global Currency Instead of the Dollar?

March 29 this year saw the start of the Bank for International Settlements new rules implementation final phase. Some experts believe that returning the status of money to gold should put an end to the absolute power of the dollar. According to their forecasts, the US currency may fall by 40% by December, and may lose its value at the beginning of next year.

Three Events that Shook the World of Gold
 
Since 1879, the US monetary system was based on the so-called “gold standard”, which tied the paper money supply to the size of the country's gold reserves, and $20 could at any time be exchanged for a troy ounce of this precious metal.

After 55 years, in 1934 US President Franklin Roosevelt approved the Gold Reserve Act. According to this document, private ownership of gold was declared illegal, and all the precious metal was subject to sale to the US Treasury. A year later, when all gold was transferred from private ownership to state hands, Roosevelt raised the price by 70% to $35 per troy ounce, which enabled him to print the corresponding amount of paper money.

The price of gold remained stable for the next four decades, keeping around $35, until early 1970s when another president, Richard Nixon, decided to abandon the “gold standard” altogether. This completely untied the government’s hands, allowing printing of infinite volumes of fiat currency, and gold prices, which had ceased to be money, would grow exponentially.

And in spring 2019, the media broke the news of another revolutionary event: on March 29, the final phase of the implementation of the new rules was due to start, according to which the yellow metal was once again becoming the same first-class asset as cash notes and government bonds.

The rules adopted by the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) and named "Basel III Standard» (by the place of the BIS location - Basel, Switzerland), made it possible for some experts to state that once gold returns its monetary status, it should become No. 1 money, pushing the unsecured US dollar out of the market. Since the obligation to exchange notes for precious metals now did not fall on the US Treasury, but directly on the banks, they had to start actively buying gold in order to maintain stability during the collapse of the dollar system. According to the forecasts of these experts, the US currency could have fallen by about 40% by December, and at the beginning of the next year it would lose its value completely.

 
Science Fiction or Reality: 155 000 USD per Ounce?
 
- And what happened on March 29? - This question is addressed to the brokerage company NordFX leading analyst, John Gordon.

- Here is what happened, - he points to the chart. - Instead of soaring to the skies, literally the day before the gold lost more than eight percent of its price.

I think that it is clearly premature to talk about the death of the dollar. It should be borne in mind that, although the Bank for International Settlements unites more than 60 Central Banks of different countries, its documents are advisory rather than mandatory. Moreover, some sources claim that the decision on revaluation of gold and the date of introduction of this rule was made not at the BIS general meeting, but by a narrow circle of the major regulators. This is the US Federal Reserve, the ECB, the Bundesbank and the banks of England and France. And many major importers of gold, such as, for example, China, India, Russia or Japan, were not present there.

In order for gold to become valuable money again,” continues the NordFX analyst, “ it is necessary to establish gold parity, that is, its fixed content, at least in the leading world currencies.

Let's do a simple calculation. The price of gold is $1280 per ounce Now, or about $41 per gram. And now let's calculate how much the gold will cost if we set the parity between the dollar mass and the gold reserves of the United States. So, according to the 2018 data, the US gold reserves are 8,133.5 tons, and the dollar mass, including bank deposits, is about $40 trillion. We divide one by the other and find that the price of one gram of gold should be $5000, or $155.5 thousand per troy ounce. That is, 120 times more than it is today.
The US national debt is more than $22 trillion, and it is difficult even to imagine what will happen if at least some of the creditors demand to exchange their fiat money for real gold.   
 
“I think that, despite their primitiveness,” concludes John Gordon, “these calculations clearly show that a return to the times of a century and a half ago, when every dollar, pound, ruble or mark was provided with the country's gold reserves, is hardly possible.
 
 
What Else Do Experts Say
 
The London Precious Metals Association (London Bullion Market Association, LBMA) conducted a survey of 30 analysts, asking them to predict the price of gold for 2019. If you average their opinions, then you can talk about a modest growth of only 1.8%. However, two thirds of respondents believe that at some point during the year the value of this precious metal may reach or even exceed the mark of $1,400 per ounce.

The most optimistic is Eddie Nagao of Sumitomo, who names the price at $1,475. According to him, gold will be one of the preferred assets among institutional and private investors, as the probability of a recession in the United States is constantly growing.

As for the pessimists, here Adam Williams of Fastmarkets MB (Metal Bulletin) has taken the first line. His scenario provides for a decline below $1,200. According to the bears, gold was the decisive factor for investors in November 2018 - February 2019. But in the case of a trade deal between the United States and China, the demand for safe-haven assets, including gold, will quickly fall, and the price will go down.
If we talk about a longer-term forecast, the model constructed by Gary S. Wagner, an analyst and producer of the daily newsletter The Gold Forecast, seems interesting. According to his calculations, the last major bullish wave began at the end of 2015, after the correction to $1040, and assumes that gold can re-test the record highs of 2011, having reached the price of $2070-2085 dollars per ounce in 2020.

 
Roman Butko, NordFX

 
Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.
 
#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #forex #forex_forecast #signals_forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin


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[Danumsigwasan]

I have a question. Do you guys have any connection with Nova FX? I worked with them but their company scammed and left. I see a lot of similarities here. So is there any connection with that?

[Stan NordFX]

I have a question. Do you guys have any connection with Nova FX? I worked with them but their company scammed and left. I see a lot of similarities here. So is there any connection with that?

Dear, Sir.
We have nothing to do with Nova FX.

[ricardobs]

This is really great and I haven't seen any exchange (or whatever you guys are) that has been able to keep up with a post like this for a long time. Some of them will just open it once and post that once and that's it and they are never going to post anything again.

But I have followed up with this and you guys have been posting for a long time now though your last post has been on march and you haven't posted anytbint since then. This NordFX is really good to be sincere.

[Stan NordFX]

NordFX Is Named the Best Cryptocurrency Broker for the Third Year in a Row

Starting from 2017, the brokerage company NordFX has been awarded many professional awards for achievements and innovations in crypto trading. And at the end of this April, its collection got one more award: NordFX has been named the Best Cryptocurrency Broker according to the respected international online portal FXDailyinfo.

The year 2018 has become one of the most difficult for the cryptocurrency market. And in these conditions, often called “crypto winter”, NordFX offered its customers not just to invest in digital assets, but actively trade them, profiting both on their purchase and their sale.

For exchange trading, the company's IT specialists connected the world's most popular MetaTrader 4 and 5 platforms with a special bridge, creating a unique specialized trading and analytical cluster that allows not only to quickly analyze the market situation, but also to make short-term transactions, profiting even on the smallest fluctuations of the market.

Thanks to the Depth of the Market, everything is as transparent as possible, and every limit order is visible to all trade participants. At the same time, clients trade exclusively with each other, and the broker's participation as one of the parties to the transaction is completely excluded.

18 basic crypto pairs, cross pairs, and 4 crypto indexes are available for trading 24/7/365, without weekends or holidays. At the same time, NordFX clients can increase their profits tenfold due to margin trading. It only takes $100 (MetaTrader 5) or $300 (MetaTrader 4) to open a position of 1 Bitcoin.

It is also worth noting that NordFX is highly reliable: over the years (NordFX has been in the market for ten years now), the broker has acquired considerable experience in blocking off hacker attacks using most advanced software. That is why, over the years, the company has not encountered a single case of hacking, in contrast to crypto-exchanges, where hacking of clients' wallets is fairly frequent.

Winners in the FXDailyinfo Awards nominations are determined by an open vote of visitors to the online portal, which makes this award particularly valuable, as it most objectively reflects the views of the professional community. And we are sincerely grateful to everyone who voted for NordFX, for such a high appreciation of our work.

 
#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #forex #forex_forecast #signals_forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin


https://nordfx.com

[Stan NordFX]

Forex Forecast and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for May 13 - 17, 2019

First, a review of last week’s events:
 
- EUR/USD. The main economic event of recent days was the failure of the US-China trade negotiations. The United States decided to increase duties on a number of Chinese goods from 10% to 25%, after which the Chinese Ministry of Commerce announced that it would be forced to take retaliatory measures. However, the market reacted rather sluggishly even to these statements, the range of weekly fluctuations of the pair did not exceed 85 points, and it could not penetrate the resistance 1.1250;
 
- GBP/USD. The movements of this pair are still dependent on just one short word: Brexit. The hope for the agreement of the British Prime Minister Theresa May with the opposition leader Jeremy Corbin regarding the conditions for leaving the EU melted away like the morning fog. As a result, the British currency collapsed by more than 200 points, reaching the local bottom at 1.2965. After that, a correction followed, and the pair completed the week at 1.3000;
 
- USD/JPY. Judging by the charts of the major pairs, the market events affect mostly the Japanese currency. The problems in the US-China negotiations and a decline in investors' inclination for risky investments allowed the yen to win back about 150 points from the dollar and return to the values of the end of March in the zone 109.70-109.95;
 
- Cryptocurrencies. Whether Bitcoin will ever become a sustainable global asset is still a question. However, the fact that it regains a place in the TOP of objects for investment is a fact. A recent study by Binance research showed that since the beginning of 2019, the value of the reference cryptocurrency has grown by more than 50%, the price of oil has increased by 33%, technology stocks have grown by 18%, and the gold has lost about 1% of its value. Such advanced dynamics of BTC cannot leave investors indifferent. For example, according to the consulting agency deVere Group, 68 percent of wealthy people with a fortune of more than $500 million intend to invest in Bitcoin in the next 2-3 years (700 businessmen from the United States, Great Britain, Switzerland, Spain and the UAE participated in the survey).
In the meantime, the market capitalization has come close to the $190 billion mark, having updated the highs since the beginning of the current year, and Bitcoin is implementing the May scenario at an accelerated pace. Recall that 70% of experts have given a forecast that the BTC/USD pair should rise above $ 6,000 during May. However, this happened as early as on May 3, and it reached $6,400 by the end of last week.
As for the main altcoins, unlike their “older brother”, they showed either zero, like Ethereum (ETH/USD), or a negative trend: Litecoin (LTC/USD) fell by 11.0%, and Ripple (XRP/USD) - by 9%.

 
As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of a number of analysts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:
 
- EUR/USD. According to the market, at the moment, China’s deal with the United States is mostly needed for China, whose economy is under great pressure. However, the continuation of the trade war could turn into major problems for Americans, pushing the country into recession. In such a situation, according to the May poll of the Wall Street Journal, 51% of experts believe that, instead of tightening monetary policy, the US Federal Reserve is more likely to ease it. (In April 44% of respondents voted for easing, and they were only 19% in March). Now, 60% of experts supported by graphical analysis on D1 prefer the euro, believing that the pair may grow to the zone 1.1280-1.1325 in the near future. The next targets are the highs of March 1.1400 and 1.1450.
On the other hand, China’s current problems may have a negative impact on the economy of the Eurozone, which has very close ties with it. And this gives rise to some concern regarding the strength of the European currency. In the transition to the monthly forecast, 70% of the experts side with the bears, believing that the pair will continue to move along the medium-term downward channel and again test the end of April low at 1.1110. Graphical analysis on H4 and 15% of oscillators on H4 and D1, which give signals the pair is overbought, side with the bears as well. The nearest support is 1.1175 and 1.1140;   
As for the upcoming events to which you should pay attention, there will be data on foreign direct investment in the Chinese economy, which will be released on Monday, May 13, as well as statistics on the GDP of Germany and the Eurozone and data on retail sales in the United States on Wednesday, May 15.
 
- GBP/USD. Statistics on the UK labor market will be published on Tuesday, May 14. However, whatever these indicators may be, the main problem remains Brexit. There is a steady feeling that Prime Minister May may not be able to solve this issue at all, and this continues to put pressure on the British currency.
65% of analysts believe that the pound will continue to fall, with which most trend indicators and graphical analysis on H4 and D 1 agree. The nearest support is 1.2985, the target is April lows in the 1.2870 zone.
The remaining 35% of experts vote for the pair's return above level 1.3100, the target is 1.3200. As for the oscillators, at the time of writing the forecast, they have taken a neutral position on both timeframes;     
 
- USD/JPY. 55% of analysts, supported by graphical analysis and 85% of indicators, believe that, as a safe haven currency, the yen will continue to strengthen its position, pushing the dollar further down to support 109.00 and then another 50 points lower. At the moment, only 45% of experts and 15% of oscillators side with the bulls, signaling the pair is oversold. However, in the transition to a longer-term forecast, it is already 80% of analysts who expect the pair to return to the range of 111.00-112.00;
 
- Cryptocurrencies. So, Bitcoin has reached a very strong support/resistance zone, noted back in February 2018. Analysts of the Galaxy company assume that this coin can rise in price to 400 thousand dollars in future. But this will happen only if it loses full decentralization and operates according to the rules of large institutional investors. In the meantime, 60% of experts believe that in the near future the pair will fluctuate in the range of $6,100-6,840, where it stayed in last September-October, before collapsing in mid-November.
20% of analysts are inclined to believe that, in the event of a favorable news background, the positive dynamics of the last months will continue, and Bitcoin quotes will reach the height of $7,400. As for the remaining 20%, they look at the situation more pessimistically, expecting the pair to return to the $5,570-5,850 zone.

Roman Butko, NordFX


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #usdchf #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin

https://nordfx.com/

[Stan NordFX]

The Range of Services NordFX Offers to its Clients Is Enriched with One of the Most Popular Investment Services, PAMM Accounts

Starting this April, NordFX clients can use one of the most popular and time-tested methods of trust management - PAMM-accounts (Percent Allocation Management Module).

This is one of the most sought-after brokerage services, since transferring funds to be managed by one or more professional traders, who receive remuneration as a percentage of profits, is an effective tool for passive earnings for investors, ensuring a substantial protection of their capital.
 
NordFX PAMM service offers some of the best terms in the market as well as a wide range of trading tools available on Pro and Zero accounts, including 33 currency pairs, metals, 15 crypto pairs, 4 crypto currency indexes, and CFD contracts for major world stock indices and oil.
 
Trading is carried out on the MetaTrader-4 platform. The maximum leverage available on PAMM accounts is 1:1000. The minimum non-withdrawable amount of the manager’s own investments is $50. There are no requirements from the company for investors, and the managing trader determines the minimum amount for investments, as well as other terms, in his offer.
 
You can learn more about the principles of the PAMM-service in the Trader's Cabinet in the “Investment Products” section at https://account.nordfx.com/account/pamm/ . You can also open a corresponding account there by registering as a manager or as an investor.


#pamm #eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #forex #forex_forecast #signals_forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin

https://nordfx.com

[Stan NordFX]

Forex Forecast and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for May 20 - 24, 2019

First, a review of last week’s events:
 
- EUR/USD. The upcoming elections to the European Parliament, as well as multi-episode confusion with Brexit continue to put pressure on the European currency. Even the escalation of tensions in the US-China trade war does not help the euro: despite the fighting mood of the PRC leadership, the markets are betting on the US victory. And the failure of China will automatically exacerbate the problems of the closely related Eurozone.
Recall that, giving a monthly forecast, 70% of experts have expressed an opinion that the pair will continue to move along the medium-term downward channel and will again test the low of the end of April 1.1110. The past week was a confirmation that this forecast was correct: the pair lost about 80 points in five days and finished not far from the set goal, at around 1.1155;
 
- GBP/USD. Nothing new has happened here, and the movements of this pair still depend on just one short word, Brexit. Last week, we expressed the opinion that Prime Minister May would not be able to solve this problem at all. And now the media is full of headlines about her inevitable resignation. The impossibility (or inability) of the government to negotiate with the opposition brings the pound down. As a result, the pair easily broke through the April lows and, starting the week from 1.3000, completed it at 1.2715, losing 285 points;
 
- USD/JPY. The result of the last week for this pair is almost zero, the difference in quotes between midnight on Friday, May 10 and midnight on May 17 did not exceed 10 points, and the pair ended the week at 110.00; 
 
- Cryptocurrencies. Few people had expected this: in six days, Bitcoin quotes soared by 30%, reaching $8,335 on Thursday May 16 and exceeding the most optimistic forecast of experts by almost $1,000. The increase since the beginning of the year has made 120%, which, according to Tom Lee, co-founder of Fundstrat Global Advisors, means the arrival of the next season after the crypto winter, "crypto spring".
The reason for such a “spring” mood was the closure of short positions by major players and the opening of long ones at the level of $5,500-6,000, after which numerous small investors joined them. Some experts also believe that a sharp aggravation in the trade war between the United States and China played a role, after which Chinese investors decided to protect their capital by investing in Bitcoin.
However, the main cryptocurrency has failed to firmly fix at the heights taken. Part of the players began to fix profits, and by Friday evening, May 17, the BTC/USD pair slipped to the level of $7,000, losing more than half of the gains won from the bears and leaving those who had opened long positions above this zone, counting possible losses.
As for the main altcoins, as usual, they followed their “elder brother”, repeating its rise and its fall. As a result, Litecoin (LTC/USD) increased by 11% over the past week, Ripple (XRP/USD) by 25%, and Ethereum (ETH/USD), showing the best result, by 30%.

 
As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of a number of analysts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:
 
- EUR/USD. The greatest interest this week is focused on the American Fed. The head of this organization, Jerome Powell, will speak at the annual conference on financial markets on Tuesday, May 21, with a report on the risks of the US financial system. And the next day, the minutes of the Fed's Open Market Committee meeting of May 1 will be released. Investors are looking forward to what will be said in the report and in the protocol on the future monetary policy of the Fed, as well as what forecasts will be made there on the US economy.
At the moment, the situation looks quite optimistic, and 75% of experts, supported by the overwhelming majority of oscillators and 100% of trend indicators on H4 and D1, expect the US currency to strengthen further. In their opinion, the pair will definitely try to break through support in the zone of the April lows and will drop below the level of 1.1100.
At the same time, 15% of oscillators warn of the pair being oversold. A correction to the north is also expected by 25% of analysts and graphical analysis on D 1, which draws the rise of the pair to the resistance of 1.1265, and possibly even higher, to a height of 1.1335. However, as already mentioned, the events listed above on May 21 and 22 may have a strong influence on the behavior of the pair;

- GBP/USD. It seems that the market does not know what other surprises can be expected in the next Brexit episodes. When will the resignation of May take place and which of the British parties will win the elections to the European Parliament? What will the next, fourth in a row, vote of the bill on the withdrawal of Great Britain from the EU bring? There are more questions than answers, and in such a situation, the majority (60%) of the experts simply shrug. The rest of the experts are equally divided, giving 20% of votes to the bulls and the same to the bears.
As for the readings of the indicators, they are exactly the same as for EUR/USD. Similarly, 15% of oscillators are in the oversold zone, and graphical analysis on D1 insists on upward corrections. The support levels are 1.2665, 1.2614, 1.2475 and 1.2400. The resistance levels are 1.2865, 1.3000 and 1.3165.
It should be noted that in the transition to the forecast for the coming months, the number of supporters of bulls, waiting for the rise of the pair above 1.3200, increases to 65%. The increase of the consumer price index (CPI), which will be published on Wednesday May 22, and is projected to grow from 1.9% to 2.1%, may help the pound sterling this week;
 
- USD/JPY. Data on Japan's GDP growth will be released on Monday, May 20, and analysts expect it to be zero. Such a result could be a bad signal for the yen, and it will continue its retreat against the dollar. 50% of analysts expect the pair to rise to the height of 111.00. A third of experts believe that the pair will move in the range of 109.00-110.00. As for the remaining 20%, in their opinion, the Japanese currency will strengthen to the values around 108 yen per $1.
At the same time, almost all experts agree that the main trends for this pair will be determined not in Tokyo, but in the USA, and depend on the Fed's forecasts on Tuesday and Wednesday, as well as the course of battles on the fields of the US-China trade war.
 
- Cryptocurrencies. Despite the bad news last Friday, crypto bulls along with crypto hamsters, who obtained their bitcoins back in the autumn of 2017, hope that the fall of the BTC/USD pair to the $7,000 mark is just a correction, and Bitcoin will soon continue to grow. About 50% of experts agree with them. The target for the coming months is the height of $10,000. And in the opinion of the Canaccord Genuity analysts, the BTC rate will reach $20,000 over two years. “We have found a coincidence between the periods of 2011-2015 and 2015-2019 and have realized that the first cryptocurrency operates within the framework of four-year cycles. This is confirmed by the fact that the decrease in the miner’s reward occurs every four years,” their statement says.
A quarter of experts suggest that the pair will find it difficult to consolidate above the resistance level of $8,500 (it was there that its growth stopped last July) and for some time it will move closer to this horizon, then moving away from it.
And finally, the remaining 25% of analysts predict Bitcoin to decline to support $6,000, based on which the pair moved from February to November 2018.


Roman Butko, NordFX


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #usdchf #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin

https://nordfx.com/

[Stan NordFX]

Forex Forecast and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for May 27 - 31, 2019

First, a review of last week’s events:
 
- EUR/USD. Complaints and sometimes even moans have been heard everywhere in the last months about the low volatility of this pair. The same is true about last week, until the second half of Thursday, the maximum range of its fluctuations did not exceed 45 points. The pair spent most of the time napping, sleepily crawling along the narrow corridor of 25 points. However, the events of the week, from the aggravation of the US-China trade war and the upcoming elections to the European Parliament to the statements by the Fed leadership and poor data on business activity in Germany and the Eurozone, played into the hands of the dollar. As a result, the pair, as most experts had suggested (75%), fell to the two-year lows, stopping at $1.1105 per euro.
But it is not only the economy of Europe, but also that of the USA which is experiencing problems. The unexpectedly weak preliminary business activity index Markit (50.9 instead of the expected 53.0) and the weak statistics on the real estate market led to a collapse in the yield of US government bonds and a sharp reversal of the EUR/USD pair to the north.
The euro's recovery was also facilitated by the closure of short positions at the lows reached before the three-day weekend in the USA and the UK. Apparently, the European currency and the statement of the British Prime Minister Theresa May about her resignation added to this. As a result, the euro won back 100 points, and the pair finished the week at 1.1205;
 
- GBP/USD. So, Mrs. May is leaving. Her version of the Brexit agreement will not be voted once again in Parliament. And the country is in for the next reshuffle in the leadership of the Conservative Party. According to many analysts, the head of the government can now be someone from the supporters of a hard exit from the EU, like the former mayor of London and Foreign Minister Boris Johnson. How will the market react? Most likely the reaction will be negative. But this news has not so far greatly affected investor sentiment: following the euro, taking advantage of weak US macroeconomic statistics, supported by the elimination of short positions, the pair pushed off from the two-year low in the 1.2600 zone and went up, putting the final point in this session at 1.2710;
 
- USD/JPY. The Japanese yen could not resist the dollar in the first half of the week either. Recall that 50% of analysts had expected the pair to rise to the height of 111.00, and one third of them has called the highest resistance 110.00 The truth, as often happens, was somewhere in the middle, and the pair fixed the week high at 110.65. After that, investors started to doubt: thanks to the harsh statements of Chinese leader Xi Jinping about the “new Great March” and “independence”, they began to realize that the yen could be a more reliable haven than the dollar. The yield on US government bonds went down, while Wall Street analysts started to talk about a high probability of deterioration in the financial results of American companies in the second half of the year and that the US economy could now be under attack due to rising prices and lower consumer demand. As a result, the pair turned around and, returning to the values of a week ago, completed the five-day week at 109.30;
 
- Cryptocurrencies. The crypto market capitalization schedule almost repeats what happens to the reference coin. Bitcoin dropped from $8,335 to $7,000 - capitalization fell from $255.8 billion to $229.2 billion. Bitcoin adjusted to $8.265, and capitalization rose to $255.5 billion. Quite often, this graph can be successfully used as a leading indicator.
It should be recalled that only 25% of experts predicted a trend reversal last week. The overwhelming majority voted for its continuation, finding that the decline in the BTC/USD pair to the level of $7,000 is just a temporary correction. In their opinion, it had to return to the $8,000 zone, after which it should move for some time in the side channel, then approaching the resistance level of 8,500, where its growth was stopped last July, then moving away from it. That's exactly what happened.

 
As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of a number of analysts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:
 
- EUR/USD. Both graphical and technical analysis point to continued growth of the pair on the H4 timeframe. But at the same time, 25% of oscillators are already in the overbought zone. At D1, the situation is different: one third of the indicators are colored red, one third are green and another third are gray, neutral. But the graphical analysis insists on further strengthening of the dollar and the continuation of the downward trend.
In fact, the situation in the global economy is quite complicated. There are more obscure prospects for Brexit, the lack of clarity with the results of the elections to the European Parliament on May 26, and multi-pass maneuvers in the US-China trade war here. The forecasts regarding the Fed's monetary policy also vary. So far, the chances of its mitigation for this year have grown from 68% to 78%. If this forecast comes true, the interest rate on the US dollar can be reduced by 0.25% in less than four months. But at the same time, the ECB, recognizing the weakness of the European economy, speaks of its readiness to take supporting measures in the minutes of the last meeting.
So far, 60% of analysts side with the bulls, believing that the powerful rebound of the pair from support in the 1.1110 zone has shown the bears' fatigue and their inability to continue the struggle.
The support levels are 1.1150 and 1.1110. The resistance levels are 1.1225 and 1.1263. The next target is 1.1325;

- GBP/USD. At the time of writing this forecast, it is not yet known which of the British parties will show which result in the elections to the European Parliament. Who will get the advantage, Brexit supporters or its opponents? Who will be the head of the UK government? Theresa May' departure may in the short term strengthen the pound, but in no way will it eliminate the long-term risks. That is why 65% of experts, supported by 90% of oscillators and trend indicators on D1, have voted for the pair to fall further. The nearest support is at 1.2660 and 1.2600, followed by the 2018 lows, 1.2475 and 1.2405.
35% of analysts rely on the growth of the pair. The immediate goals are 1.2825 and 1.3000, then 1.3125 and 1.3200.
A compromise forecast is given by graphical analysis on D 1. First, supported by 1.2600, a rise to the height of 1.2825, and then the collapse and the bottom in the zone 1.2475;
 
- USD/JPY. 100% of the trend indicators and 85% of the oscillators on H4 and D 1 are colored red. 70% of experts have also voted for the further fall of the pair and the strengthening of the yen as a reserve currency. At the same time, 15% of oscillators give signals about the pair being oversold. As for the graphical analysis, it draws first a fall to the horizon 108.50, and then a trend reversal and a growth to the height of 110.65. It should be borne in mind that one or two unpredictable tweets of US President Trump regarding the prospects for relations with China are enough to deploy the pair and accelerate it to either side.
The support levels are 109.00, 108.50 and 107.75, the resistance levels are 110.25, 110.65, 111.00 and 111.65;
 
- Cryptocurrencies. The European Central Bank has released a report stating that, although cryptocurrencies do not have a serious impact on the real economy now, in the future it is possible that they can replace the euro. But this is for the future. As for the present, analysts at JPMorgan Chase believe that the recent rise in the price of Bitcoin has brought it beyond what they call the inherent value of cryptocurrency. And that this could be a harbinger of another long recession.
However, if we sum up the opinions of their colleagues, only 15% of experts now support the scenario with a fall. 45% believe that the pair will move to the side channel of $7,500-8,400, and 40% are optimistic about the upward direction, indicating the April-May 2018 high as their closest target. at the height of $9,550. Note that in the transition to the medium-term forecast, the number of such optimists increases to 70%.


Roman Butko, NordFX


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #usdchf #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin

https://nordfx.com/

[Stan NordFX]

NORD FX Offers Investments in Most Reliable and Profitable Shares of Major Global Brands

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https://nordfx.com

[Stan NordFX]

NordFX Products and Services Praised at the Philippines Traders' Fair

The brokerage company NordFX took part in the specialized Forex Traders' Fair-2019 which was held in the capital of the Philippines, Manila, at the end of May.

The Philippines with a population of over 105 million people provides tremendous opportunities for the development of the financial services market. This large-scale event alone, organized by FinExpo, gathered about two thousand guests and participants.

Visitors to the NordFX booth were able to exchange views with company representatives, as well as evaluate its new products, among which there are CFD trading tools, including oil contracts and major global stock indices, as well as investment funds that have absorbed the most reliable and promising stocks of world industry leaders. The Fair's participants were especially attracted by the availability and transparency of these funds, thanks to which the global stock market became accessible even to novice investors with small financial resources.

In addition to currency trading with low spreads and leverage up to 1:1000, NordFX services that have already gained popularity, such as PAMM and RAMM trust management platforms, as well as the possibility of margin trading in cryptocurrencies and cryptocurrency indexes on MetaTrader-4 and MetaTrader-5, were highly appreciated.

Due to high commissions and constantly improving conditions, the NordFX two-tier affiliate program aroused great interest as well.

The company expresses its gratitude to the organizers of the Fair for their work and, of course, to all the visitors to the company's booth who chose NordFX as their broker.

 
#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #forex #forex_forecast #signals_forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin

https://nordfx.com

[Stan NordFX]

Forex Forecast and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for June 03 - 07, 2019

First, a review of last week’s events:
 
- EUR/USD. President Trump decided to shake up the markets once again. Putting Chinese problems aside for the time being, he turned his eyes towards Mexico. As he failed to build a wall on the border with it, in order to stop the flow of illegal immigrants, we will punish Mexico with the dollar, the US president decided, and increased the duties on Mexican-made goods. Onwards and upwards: in July the rates will be raised up to 10%, in August - up to 15%, in September - up to 20%, and in October - up to 25%.
It is not excluded that such a demonstration of power pursued a double goal: in addition to the punishment of Mexico City, he also wants to scare Beijing: see what we do with the recalcitrant!
Of course, China is not Mexico, everything is much more complicated here, but, be that as it may, the dollar continued to grow. The results of the elections to the European Parliament also played in its favor. As a result, the pair recorded a local low at the level of 1.1115 on Thursday, May 30, and ended May near the monthly Pivot Point, at 1.1167. Thus, the euro weakened against the dollar by about 350 points in the first five months.
It is appropriate to recall that a year ago at the same time, the European currency lost 2.5 times more, about 900 points, in just a month and a half. So, both traders and brokers have every reason to complain about lower volatility.
 
- GBP/USD. After the resignation statement of Prime Minister Theresa May and success of the Brexit supporters in the elections to the European Parliament the pound continues to be under pressure. Recall that 65% of experts, supported by 90% of oscillators and trend indicators, voted for the pair to fall further. This was exactly what happened. The pair not only went down, but also updated the lows of spring 2019, reaching the bottom on the horizon 1.2557, then a rebound followed, and the final chord sounded at 1.2630;
 
- USD/JPY. The growth of tension entails the growth of anti-risk sentiment. The blow, struck by Trump in Mexico, caused a collapse of almost all market assets, first of all, the oil price. And investors have once again turned their eyes to a safe haven called the Japanese Yen, where one can wait out the next economic storm.
As a result, unlike the euro and the pound, which fell against the dollar, the yen, on the contrary, strengthened, reaching 108.30 on Friday, May 31, where it met summer, fully confirming the forecast given by 75% of analysts, 85% of oscillators and 100% trend indicators;
 
- Cryptocurrencies. For the third week in a row, Bitcoin stubbornly stepped up to the cherished $10,000, moving according to the “step forward, half step back” scheme. So, having fought off the horizon of $7,880, the BTC/USD pair went up sharply late in the evening of Sunday, May 26, reaching $8,955 on Monday. Then a correction of 5.5% followed, and one more spurt upwards, as a result of which it was seen at the height of $9,100. However, it failed to gain a foothold above $9,000, the bulls began to fix their profits, and Bitcoin said goodbye to the spring at $8.510, having risen in price by more than 120% for these three months.
As for the pairs ETH/USD, LTC/USD and XRP/USD, both Ethereum and Litecoin as well as Ripple, after growth following the reference cryptocurrency, returned to the mid-May values by the end of the working week.

 
As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of a number of analysts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:
 
- EUR/USD. In addition to US President Trump, the main engines of this pair are the US Federal Reserve and the ECB. Recall that the current head of the European Central Bank, Mario Draghi, leaves office on October 31. The main contender for his chair now is Jens Weidmann, who, being a supporter of a strong euro, actively supports the increase in interest rates. Representatives of the Fed, by contrast, hint at a possible reduction in the dollar rate due to a possible slowdown in the US GDP. Such a situation should presumably play in favor of the euro. However, according to Bloomberg, the ECB will begin to raise the rate no earlier than April 2020, and during this time a lot can change. Moreover, the political and economic problems of the Eurozone can be observed already now.
Based on the above, 60% of experts, supported by graphical analysis on D1, vote for the pair to fall to support 1.0975. The next target is 100 points lower.
Most indicators also look to the south: 50% of them are colored red, 25% are green and 25% are neutral gray. 
Supporters of bulls are currently in the minority. In their opinion, the pair will not be able to break through support in the 1.1100 zone and it can reach the height of 1.1265-1.1325 on the rebound.
Now, the events of the coming week, which are worth paying attention to. On Monday, June 3, we are waiting for the publication of business activity indices in the Eurozone, the United States and China, and on Tuesday, for the data on inflation and unemployment in the Eurozone. Thursday, June 6, will also be filled with news from Europe. These are data on GDP, the ECB decision on interest rates, and, most importantly, the ECB press conference on monetary policy. And, finally, as usual, we will see the publication of statistics on the US labor market on the first Friday of the month. Experts expect that the NFP may fall by about 30% (from 263K to 190K), which will weaken the dollar for a while;

- GBP/USD. The main contender for the post of British Prime Minister today is the former Mayor of London and Foreign Minister Boris Johnson. And this is bad for the pound, since Johnson is a supporter of the "tough" Brexit and exit from the EU without a deal. Such an outcome scares the market, and today 65% of experts, supported by 90% of oscillators and 100% of trend indicators on D1, expect the British currency to weaken further and the fall of the pair first to support 1.2555 and then to the 2018 lows, 1.2475 and 1.2405.
The remaining 35% of analysts believe that the pair’s behavior over the past two weeks is a precursor to a strong correction, as a result of which it can return to the height of 1.2745, or even reach the resistance of 1.2825.
A compromise is offered by graphical analysis on D1. According to its readings, the pair can first rise to the level of 1.2825, and then, turning around, find the bottom in the zone of 1.2405-1.2475;
 
- USD/JPY. Despite the fact that 100% of the trend indicators and 85% of the oscillators on H4 and D1 are colored red, the situation is not that simple: 15% of oscillators are already giving signals that the pair is being oversold. Support levels are 107.75 and 107.00, resistance levels are 109.15, 109.65, 110.35 and 110.65.
As for the experts, the votes were divided as follows: 50% side with the bears, 25% side with the bulls, and 25% are at a loss in the middle. Whose position will be the most correct will depend on the stock markets with which the pair has a strong correlation, and, as usual, on Trump's tweets, dedicated primarily to the course of the US-China trade war. At the same time, when transitioning to the medium-term forecast, the situation changes radically: here it is already 75% who give the palm to the dollar;
 
- Cryptocurrencies. “Six years ago, in 2013, an unusual message from Luka Magnotta from the Future was published, which predicted the price of Bitcoin, which turned out to be surprisingly accurate. “On average, every year the cost of Bitcoin increased about 10 times,” Magnotta wrote. “It grew from $0.1 in 2010 to $1 in 2011, to $10 in 2012, to $100 in 2013.Then there will be a slowdown, and the price will increase 10 times every two years: Bitcoin will grow to $1,000 in 2015, to $10,000 in 2017, to $100,000 in 2019 and to $1,000,000 in 2021”.
There are still seven months until the end of 2019. Or is it just seven months? In any case, this cryptocurrency must demonstrate a fantastic growth in order to achieve the goal set by Magnotta.
As for the shorter-term forecast, a well-known analyst Peter Brandt has expressed an opinion that, driven by the FOMO (fear of missing out) syndrome of numerous traders, the price of Bitcoin will soon overcome the mark of $10,000. At the same time, Brandt stresses that a rather deep correction is not far off: the bulls will certainly want to take profits, and this sale will stop buyers trying to "jump into the leaving train."
Unlike Brandt, most analysts (70%) have set a more modest goal for the BTC/USD pair, to consolidate above $9,000. The remaining 30% believe that the pair will take a breather and will move in the side channel $7,500-8,500.
In conclusion of this forecast, it should be noted that the time of its writing is Friday, 24:00 GMT. And it is possible that it is the upcoming weekend, as it happened more than once, that the bulls will once again move Bitcoin quotes up.


Roman Butko, NordFX


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #usdchf #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin

https://nordfx.com/

[Stan NordFX]

NordFX Offers CFD Trading Tools to Its Clients

Dear Clients,
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-­ JP225.c (JP225.c - Nikkei 225, an index representing the average value of the stock price of 225 companies traded on the Tokyo Stock Exchange),

Trading with CFD instruments (contracts for difference Contract for Difference) is available on Fix, Pro and Zero accounts. You can find more detailed information on the contract terms for these instruments in the specifications of these accounts, CFD Specification tab.

 
#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #forex #forex_forecast #signals_forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin

https://nordfx.com

[Stan NordFX]

Forex Forecast and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for June 10 - 14, 2019

First, a review of last week’s events:
 
- EUR/USD. It seems that Mario Draghi has already lost the ability to influence the market, which is waiting for the arrival of the new head of the ECB to replace him. At least, the rather soft rhetoric of Draghi and his reasoning about a possible quantitative easing, sounded last Thursday, was perceived quite calmly by investors. The euro was not weakened by the statement that it was not worth expecting a rate increase until the middle of next year either. As a result, surprisingly, the press conference of the ECB leadership played into the hands of the European currency, and the pair went up to the level above 1.1300. There followed a smooth rollback to the level of 1.1250 and ... a new breakthrough to the north at the time of publication of data on the labor market in the US on Friday, June 07.
Experts were prepared for the fact that the NFP indicator (the number of new jobs created outside the agricultural sector) could “shrink” by about 30%, but almost no one expected a reduction of 3 times (from 224K to 75K). As a result, the pair soared to the level of 1.1345, and the weekly swing was 180 points. As for the end of the five-day week, at the end of the trading session, 1 euro was worth $1.1333;
 
- GBP/USD. They say that no news is good news. Following the resignation of Prime Minister Theresa May, there were no significant events in the British Isles, which allowed the pound to strengthen its position during all week, step by step. President Trump's visit to Queen Elizabeth II hit the front pages of the secular, but not the economic chronicle. And Mrs. May's efforts, who directed the remnants of her influence in order to prevent the "hard" Brexit, could only slightly support the uptrend of the British currency. The same applies to weak statistics on employment in the United States. As a result, the pair returned to the highs of a week ago, putting the final chord practically where the analysts who were waiting for correction indicated, at the level of 1.2733;
 
- USD/JPY. Recall that the votes of the experts last week were divided as follows: 50% sided with the bears, 25% sided with the bulls, and 25% stood in the middle confused. We can say that it is this discrepancy that is reflected on the pair chart.
Quotes of the yen against the dollar are strongly correlated with the US Treasury bonds. The fall of the latter stopped on Monday, June 3, stopping the pair from falling below the mark of 107.80. Then the dollar began to regain its position, and by the time of the NFP data publication reached the height of 108.65, after which the pair sharply went down, felt the bottom at the level of 107.88, and finished the week at 108.18;
 
- Cryptocurrencies. Bitcoin has been declared “halal” in Egypt, in accordance with the Sharia law. The new decree lifts the ban on cryptocurrency, in force since 2018, and this is probably the best news of the week. In general, the background was mostly neutral. In the absence of the news, as many analysts assumed, despite attempts to turn the pair up, a correction continued: the bulls were taking profits, and this sale stopped the influx of new investors. If on Friday, May 31, the BTC/USD pair was at the level of $9,100, on Thursday, June 6, it fixed a locallow, dropping to $7,450 and losing 18% in six days.
The Ethereum chart (ETH/USD) almost completely repeated the dynamics of the elder brother, Bitcoin. But the Ripple and the Litecoin turned out to be much more capable of “regeneration”. Thus, the XRP/USD pair almost returned to the values of the end of the previous week, and LTC/USD even slightly exceeded them.

 
As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of a number of analysts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:
 
- EUR/USD. Speech by Mario Draghi on June 6 pushed the euro up. On Wednesday, June 12, we are expecting his next speech, from which investors still hope to get clearer guidelines on the ECB’s monetary policy for the foreseeable future. Another source of operational information for the market is President Trump's Twitter, in which he often shares information and plans regarding his trade wars, primarily with China.
As for the exact figures, the upcoming week will be devoted to inflation. On Wednesday, the CPI index values will be published by the National Bureau of Statistics of China, on Wednesday and Friday, consumer price indices in the USA will become known, and on Thursday, June 13, the German ones.
In the meantime, expert opinions are divided as follows. 60%, supported by graphical analysis on D1 and 20% of oscillators that give signals the pair being overbought, expect that it will try to break through the support of 1.1215 and retest the lows in the 1.1100 zone. The alternative point of view is held by 40% of experts and the vast majority of oscillators and trend indicators. In case they are right, the pair will be able to consolidate above the level of 1.1400, aiming at the resistance of 1.1525;
 
- GBP/USD. At the beginning of the coming week, candidates for the post of the UK Conservative Party leader will likely be known. It will also become more or less clear, how many votes they can get by moving to the post of Prime Minister, and to what extent the likelihood of a “hard” Brexit and exit from the EU without an agreement is likely.
Currently, 55% of the experts, supported by graphical analysis on H4, continue to side with the bulls and 45% side with the bears. The trend indicators have exactly the same ratio: 55% are for the growth of the pair and 45% stand for its fall. Oscillators have a slightly different picture. There, despite the overwhelming advantage of the “green”, 10% of the indicators on H4 and D1 give signals the pair is overbought, which can indicate either a fairly strong correction or a beginning of a downward trend.
Some impact on the behavior of the pair may be exercised by the data on the labor market in the UK, which will be published on Tuesday, June 11. But, with a high degree of probability, it can be assumed that this influence will be mild and short-lived;

 
- USD/JPY. It is also unlikely that the GDP data in Japan, which will be released on Monday, June 10, will have an impact on the market. The main drivers are still the yield of US government bonds, oil prices and the course of the US-China negotiations. In such a situation of uncertainty, 40% of analysts have turned their eyes to the north, 40% to the south and 20% to the east. The main support levels are 107.75 and 107.00, resistance levels are 109.15, 109.65, 110.35 and 110.65;
 
- Cryptocurrencies. Will the current Bitcoin correction be actually only temporary? Or is this the beginning of a new downtrend? Disputes about how applicable methods of analyzing the movement of fiat currencies to digital currencies, flare up with a new force.
Proponents of the theory of growth, of course, are Bitcoin holders, who are trying in every way to warm up the market with all sorts of news. For example, the founder of the company Dadiani Syndicate has reported that she received an order from one of the clients to acquire 25% of all currently issued bitcoins (which is about 4.5 million coins worth about $36 billion). Another piece of news is that only from the beginning of June, the largest BTC wallets have attracted $2.72 billion. But if this is so, why, despite the influx of these billions, the BTC/USD rate fell by 18% in six days?
Although, in fairness, it should be noted that at the end of the working week, on June 7, both Bitcoin and the major Altcoins attempted to recover, and the BTC/USD pair returned to the $7,800-8,000 zone, which can be considered Pivot Point for the last three weeks.
As for analysts, at the moment 50% of them believe that the pair should go down to the horizon $7,000, 30% - for returning to the zone above $9,000, and the remaining 20% are for lateral movement in the channel $7,500-8,450.


Roman Butko, NordFX


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #usdchf #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin

https://nordfx.com/

[Stan NordFX]

NordFX Seriously Improves Trading Terms for Traders

The broker company NordFX has made another improvement in trading conditions, significantly reducing spreads and transaction costs, thanks to which the company's clients have received new additional opportunities to increase their income.

The changes have affected two types of trading accounts. The spreads on currency pairs have been reduced by almost 30% on the Pro account, and as for the Zero account with spreads from 0 points, the transaction fee has been reduced from 0.0045% to 0.0035%.

Considering the fact that the speed of order execution is less than 0.5 sec and the leverage is up to 1:1000, NordFX clients now have an opportunity to carry out transactions with currencies on terms that are among the most profitable in the financial services market.

 
#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #forex #forex_forecast #signals_forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin

https://nordfx.com

[Stan NordFX]

Forex Forecast and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for June 17-21, 2019

First, a review of last week’s events:
 
- EUR/USD. The German Ministry of Economics has issued a gloomy forecast on the global outlook for the leading EU economy. The statement by the head of the IMF, Christine Lagarde, that the overall growth of the Eurozone economy slowed down, has not inspired investors either. Even the information that the share of the euro in the global reserves of leading countries began to grow could not help the European currency. This share is 20.7% now, and it is still very far from the US dollar with its 61.7%. The market does not forget about the possible resuscitation of the ECB quantitative easing policy (QE).
In general, the week did not work for the euro, and, as most experts assumed (60%), the pair turned to support in the zone 1.1200-1.1215 from the very beginning of the five-day week. However, it managed to achieve it only at the very end of the trading session, on the evening of Friday, June 14; therefore, a breakthrough below this zone did not happen;
 
- GBP/USD. The holders of the British currency are not happy with the news either. And again, the news concern Brexit above all. It is highly likely that the post of the Conservative Party of Great Britain leader and, accordingly, the post of prime minister will be occupied by Boris Johnson. Following the first round, he is supported by 114 legislators. His closest competitor, Foreign Minister Jeremy Hunt, has only 43 votes. This does not predict anything good for the pound, since Johnson considers it necessary to reconsider the deal that Teresa May agreed to with the European Union earlier. And this is a clear increase in political risks and another reason for the flight of investors from the British market. As a result, over the past five days, the pair dropped by about 150 points and finished the week at 1.2585;
 
- USD/JPY. Recall that last week 40% of analysts turned their views to the north, 40% to the south and 20% to the east. It is this equality of strength between bulls and bears that was reflected on the chart of the pair, which spent the whole week in a very narrow range, 108.15-108.80, and completed it at the level 108.55;
 
- cryptocurrency. On June 14, the President of the United States celebrated his 73rd birthday. A few days earlier, it was announced that Google users are much more likely to search for information about Bitcoin, and not about Donald Trump. There is another piece of news, testifying to the popularity of the basic cryptocurrency. It turns out that 60% of BTC coins have not moved anywhere over the past year, indicating a high investor interest in this asset.
This is confirmed by the fact that, starting from June 10, Bitcoin is steadily growing, approaching the May 31 high at the level of $9,100 once again. On Friday evening, June 14, it managed to reach the height of $8,700, having risen in price by about 15% in five days.
Litecoin (LTC/USD) maintains good momentum as well, at the maximum it reached $143.6. Ethereum (ETH/USD) has not added a single point in two weeks, but the Ripple is moving steadily down, having lost about 10% during the same time.

 
As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of a number of analysts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:
 
- EUR/USD. The hot breath of another war in the Middle East is felt again. On June 13, two tankers caught fire off the coast of the United Arab Emirates. The US Department of State has accused Iran of a torpedo attack on the ships, Iran denies all the charges. But despite this, the oil price flew up.
The cold trade wars do not subside either. The United States seems to be confident of its victory over China, threatening to expand duties on all Chinese imports if Xi Jinping does not appear to meet with Donald Trump in Osaka, Japan. In response, the Chinese Ministry of Commerce announced that it would “fight to the end,” putting domestic consumption as a priority. The US threatens the EU with new duties as well.
Now, the upcoming events. If last week was dedicated to inflation, the coming one can be called the week of interest rates. The decision on the interest rate of the US Federal Reserve will be known on Wednesday, June 19, and the Banks of Japan and England will announce their decisions on the rate on Thursday. However, neither in the first, nor in the second, nor in the third case should you expect any sensations, all the rates will most likely remain unchanged. Of much greater interest are the accompanying comments, which may give clearer guidelines on the monetary policy of the mega-regulators. According to the Wall Street Journal experts, the likelihood of a recession in the United States has risen to its highest level since 2011, and therefore 70% of them expect the dollar rate to decline as early as this July-September.
In the meantime, 65% of analysts are expecting the pair to rebound up. The euro may be supported by the rise in oil prices associated with the conflict off the coast of the UAE. The target of the bulls is a return to the level 1.1350, the next target is the zone 1.1420-1.1450.
It is only 35% of the experts who side with the bears. The target is to break through the support around 1.1200-1.1215 and reach the horizon of 1.1100. Over 90% of trend indicators on H4 and D1 stand for the fall of the pair as well. As for the oscillators, the picture is completely different. 70% of them are colored red on H4, and 30% give signals the pair being oversold. A third of the oscillators are red on D1, a third is green, and another third is colored neutral gray;
 
- GBP/USD. If we talk about macroeconomic indicators, in addition to the already mentioned interest rate decision, we are expecting the publication of the Bank of England’s inflation report on Monday and the consumer price index on Wednesday, which are predicted to play against the pound. However, their influence will be not strong and short.
Brexit is still the key factor for this pair's conduct. Markets have almost come to terms with Boris Johnson at the helm of the UK. Now the question is how the EU will respond to his attempt to start negotiations from the scratch. And here again, there is no clarity. That is why the votes of experts are divided almost equally: one third stand for the growth of the pair, one third expect its fall, and one third simply abstain from any forecasts.
As for the indicators, the majority points to the south, but about 10% of the oscillators on H4 and D1 are in the oversold zone;
 
- USD/JPY. Here, the picture is not very clear either. Experts speak about the growth of risk-free sentiment almost unanimously. About the fact that the share of the US dollar in foreign exchange reserves of many countries has reached a historical low. About the fact that countries continue to diversify their assets in favor of safe haven currencies, such as the yen. About the fact that the recent auctions of 10- and 30-year Treasury securities in the United States reduced their profitability and stimulated good demand for the yen. In such circumstances, it would seem  the quotes of the Japanese currency should soar to the skies. But the yen ... has been crawling in a narrow channel not exceeding 100 points, for the second week.
However, 80% of experts remain optimistic about its future, predicting a decline of the pair first to the level of 107.80, and then even lower by 80-100 points. Graphical analysis and 70% of trend indicators on D1 agree with this forecast. An alternative point of view is expressed by 20% of analysts. The zones of resistance are 108.85-109.00, 109.70-109.90 and 110.65-110.90;

- Cryptocurrencies. If Bitcoin can reach the May 31 high at $9,100, and then continue to grow steadily, we can say that the fall in the first days of June was nothing more than a correction. The target of bulls is the symbolic height of $10,000 per coin. 70% of experts are sure that this will happen if not until the end of June, then during the summer. The remaining 30% are more pessimistic and believe that we will soon see the pair BTC/USD in the $7,500–8,000 area.


Roman Butko, NordFX


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

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[Stan NordFX]

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[Stan NordFX]

Forex Forecast for July - August 2019

The peak of the vacation season is approaching, which usually entails a decline in business activity, including that in financial markets. On the one hand, a decrease in the volatility of major currency pairs, which is already low, entails a fall in profits, but on the other hand, it also reduces potential losses in the event of a failed position.
 
We have repeatedly discussed in our previous forecasts, the trade wars led by US President Trump with both China and Europe, and the possibility of a global economic crisis and local recessions, Brexit and other political risks, prospects for a rate increase by the Fed and quantitative easing in the Eurozone, as well as many other factors influencing the formation of both short-term and long-term trends. If we talk about the mood of experts in the coming months, for the most part they expect that the US dollar will be able to strengthen its position in relation to other leading world currencies.
 
- EUR/USD. Here, 75% of analysts, supported by 80% of indicators on MN, believe that the pair will definitely make another attempt to update the lows of spring 2019 and will finally break through support in the 1.1100 zone. The targets for the bears are 1.0900 and 1.0800 (of course, a possible margin of ± 25?35 points must be considered). According to the remaining 25% of experts, the zone of 1.1100 is the fall limit, and the pair will now go to the zone 1.1530-1.1650. Most trend indicators and oscillators on W1 are also colored green.

 
- USD/CHF. The euro and the Swiss franc are quite strongly correlated: the European currency is falling against the dollar, and the Swiss currency is losing ground at the same time. That is why here, just as in the case of EUR/USD, most experts (75%) have preferred the “American”. According to them, the pair is expected to rise, first to the level of 1.0130, and then 100 points higher, to the height of 1.0230. By the way, about 15% of the oscillators on W1 and MN are already signaling that the pair is oversold. An alternative view is presented by a quarter of experts who do not see the dollar above the symbolic 1.0000 level. In their opinion, no more than 0.9600-0.9700 francs will be given for the “American” in the second half of the summer.
 
- NZD/USD and AUD/USD. We only talk about those pairs In this review, regarding the future of which most experts have already more or less formed an opinion. One of these pairs is NZD/USD: here 85% of the votes have been cast for the bears. If this prediction turns out to be correct, the New Zealand kiwi may fall to the low of 10/08/2018 in the zone of 0.6420. 90% of the oscillators on both timeframes, W1 and MN, agree with this forecast.
Bears have scored a bit less support when voting for the future of the nearest “colleague” of the New Zealander, the Australian dollar. Those turned out to be only 60%. True, they have been supported by almost 85% of trend indicators and oscillators on W1 and MN. The purpose of the bears is to update the June 17 lows, reaching the bottom in the zone of 0.6750-0.6800. 20% have favored the growth of the pair to the height of 0.7300, and another 20% have predicted a calm movement along the Pivot Point at the level of 0.7000.
 
- And there are two more pairs, the forecasts for which have seemed to us quite interesting. Both are tied to the British pound, these are GBP/JPY and EUR/GBP.
70% of analysts believe that the pair GBP/JPY has reached its bottom at 135.65, and now it is expected to grow first to the height of 141.50, and then a rise above the horizon 143.75 is not excluded. Those experts who expect a tough Brexit and the UK exit from the EU without a deal see the pair at 131.00.
Even though the British currency fell against the euro throughout May and early June, most analysts are looking at the future of the pound rather optimistically. Just as in the case of GBP/JPY, 70% have voted for the growth of the pound and the decline of the EUR/GBP pair to the zone of 0.8600-0.8680. The next target is the lows of March 2019 in the area 0.8470. As for the bulls, they aim to rise above the high of 01/01/2019, breaking the height of 0.9100.


Roman Butko, NordFX


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #usdchf #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin

https://nordfx.com/

[Stan NordFX]

Forex Forecast and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for July 01-05, 2019

 
First, a review of last week’s events:
 
- EUR/USD. It was two weeks ago that most experts predicted the rebound of the pair up. The target for the bulls was to return to the level of 1.1350, and then rise to the zone 1.1420-1.1450. This forecast came true, if not by 100%, then by 99%: the pair recorded a local high at the height of 1.1411 on June 25. There followed a slight reversal after that, and, waiting for the results of negotiations at the G20 summit in Osaka, Japan, the pair turned into a sideways trend in the narrow channel 1.1345-1.1390, ending the working week at 1.1370;
 
- GBP/USD. After jumps of 250 points in the second decade of June, the British currency calmed down a bit, and the past week was relatively calm for it. The pair returned to the corridor 1.2650-1.2765 and finished the week near the strong support/resistance zone 1.2700;
 
- USD/JPY. The currency of the G20 host country, Japan, came close to the monthly Pivot Point as well. In the run-up to the meeting of US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping during the G-20 leaders meeting, demand for safe haven currencies fell slightly, pushing off from the low of the last 5.5 months at 106.77, the pair rose to 107.90 yen for 1 US dollar;
 
- Cryptocurrencies. “Bitcoin does not stop!”, some exclaim. “It is easily stopped,” others grin. One thing is clear: those who were the first to take the train leaving in the right direction and got off at the right stop can get a huge profit. Those who jumped into the last car or mixed up the trains will receive huge losses.
Bitcoin grew from $7,500 to $13,765 just in the last three weeks, that is, more than 80%. And then, in just two days, it crashed to $10,390, shrinking 25%. And the next day, again an increase of 15%...
Interestingly, at the time of the BTC fall by 25%, the capitalization of the crypto market declined by only 13% (from $367.42 billion to $318.61 billion). This suggests that many investors are in no hurry to take profits and get rid of their bitcoins but expect its growth to continue.
At the same time, analysts warn that one should not expect the same rise from altcoins. This is clearly seen even in the charts of the TOP cryptocurrencies, such as, for example, Litecoin (LTC/USD) or Ripple (XRP/USD). But Ethereum (ETH/USD) quite accurately repeats the dynamics of the reference coin.
 

As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of a number of analysts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:
 
- EUR/USD. Markets do not expect any breakthrough solutions from the work of the G20 summit. The bilateral talks between the leaders of the world's most powerful economies at this forum, and, first of all, the talks between Chinese leader Xi Jinping and US President Trump on Saturday June 29, are of much greater interest. Investors are hoping for a decrease in the intensity in the trading opposition of these countries, and if this happens, on Monday trading in the foreign exchange market may open with gaps.
However, many analysts still look at this event calmly enough and believe that there will be no global truce in this war. Tariffs have affected 10,000 categories of goods from China, and one of the conditions voiced by Beijing, is the cancellation by the United States of all the existing duties. The probability that Trump will go to such a step is close to zero. The ban on cooperation with the Chinese company Huawei is unlikely to be lifted either. The parties will warmly smile at each other, shake hands, but hardly any of them will make serious concessions. Such a zero (or minimal) result of the meeting will allow Trump, on the eve of the presidential election in the United States, to announce his next “victory”, and for China to gain time.
In such a situation, the US Federal Reserve will become an important figure in this “chess game”, which, against the background of falling global stock indices, will still be forced to ease its monetary policy, which will lead to a weakening of the US currency.
The weaker US macroeconomic data, which will be released next week, may push the Fed to reduce interest rates. Indicators of the ISM business activity index will be known on July 1 and July 3, and data from the labor market (including NFP) will traditionally be made public on the first Friday of the month, July 05
A quarter of experts believe that the Fed may cut rates by 25 or even 50 basis points very soon, at its meeting on July 31. The market hopes to get more accurate signals from the speeches of FOMC member Richard Clarida in Finland on July 1 and Fed Vice Chairman John Williams on July 2 in Zurich.
On the other hand, the political risks and economic problems of the Eurozone have not disappeared. And it is not excluded that the ECB will also undertake an additional package of measures to stimulate the economy, and this will happen at the meeting on July 25.
It is not possible to give any specific forecast for the upcoming week, since the opinions of the experts are almost equally divided. However, if you go to the monthly and medium-term forecasts, 75% of analysts believe that the pair will definitely make another attempt to update the lows of spring 2019 and still break through the support in the 1.1100 zone. The following targets for bears are 1.0900 and 1.0800. In the opinion of the remaining 25% experts, the 1.1100 zone is the limit of the fall, and the pair expects growth to the zone of 1.1530-1.1650.
As for the indicators, most of the trend indicators and oscillators on D1 are colored green. However, it is already 20% of oscillators that give signals that the pair is overbought;
 
- GBP/USD. British Prime Minister Theresa May gradually fades away, and her most likely successor, Boris Johnson, becomes the main newsmaker on Brexit. He stated last week that, becoming the head of the government, he would do everything possible to preserve the possibility of “hard” withdrawal of his country from the EU, without a deal. According to Johnson, such a threat will strengthen his position in negotiations with the European Union, and for this the politician is even ready to set a recess in the work of Parliament.
The markets have already reacted to such rhetoric by the pound falling against the euro. As for GBP/USD, here, most experts (65%) expect the British currency to further weaken, and the pair will fall first to 1.2475-1.2500 and then, during July, to January 3, 2019 low, 1.2400.
35% of analysts still keep optimism and hope for a positive course of negotiations with the EU. In this case, the pair will continue to move up. The immediate goals are 1.2775 and 1.2830, then 1.2930.
The compromise option in the form of cyclic movement on the channel 1.2500-1.2860 is offered by graphical analysis on D1;
 
- USD/JPY. As already mentioned, the most likely outcome of the meeting between President Trump and Chairman X on the G20 is the continuation of endless and fruitless talks between the two countries. In such a situation, global stock indices are waiting for a fall, US monetary policy is easing, and the dollar is weakening. Investors will naturally respond to all this by increasing the demand for defensive assets, including the yen.
However, this not a case for one day, and not even one week. In the meantime, only 40% of experts and D1 graphical analysis vote for the strengthening of the Japanese currency and the movement of the pair to the south. Another 30% turned their looks to the north, while the rest of the analysts just shake shoulders. Approximately the same situation is with the oscillators and trend indicators on D1.
Support levels are in zones 106.80-107.00, then 105.50-106.00. Resistances are at 108.85, 109.70 and 110.65;
 
- Cryptocurrencies. - Morgan Creek Digital's founder and partner, Anthony "Pomp" Pompliano has predicted the growth of Bitcoin to $100 thousand in his letter addressed to the company's customers. In his opinion, the probability of such a development in the next 2.5 years is 70-75%.
A similar forecast is given by a well-known trader and analyst Peter Brandt. “Bitcoin is looking at $100,000. The BTC/USD pair is going through the fourth parabolic phase since 2010. No other market has looked like this on logarithmic graphics in my 45 years of trading,” he writes.
But one of the Fundstrat Global Advisors founders Tom Lee as well as 45 experts believe that Bitcoin expects a powerful correction. And it’s not at all the fact that the fall of BTC / USD by 25% on July 26-27 was exactly that. Analysts do not rule out a decrease in the pair to $7,500-8,000.
As for the altcoins from the TOP-10, judging by the capitalization graphs, they are gradually losing ground to digital currency No. 1. Thus, it is only Bitcoin that has shown growth over the past 12 months, increasing its share in the total market capitalization from 41% to 66%. The share of the other coins either falls or, at best, remains at the same level.

   

P.S. As forecasted above, the meeting of US President Donald Trump with PRC President Xi Jinping on the final day of the Osaka summit did not put an end to the trade war. The leaders were able to agree only on a respite in the hostilities and the resumption of trade and economic consultations on the basis of "mutual respect and equality."
 

Roman Butko, NordFX


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #usdchf #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin

https://nordfx.com/