Are there any other Optimistic Bears?

[Bit_Happy]

Prior to the 2nd big run-up (~$200/$250 all the way to ~$1,200), I was convinced BTC would "obviously" fall back under $50, maybe much lower.
Now I would be happy with anything except this endless quiet time.

...
A true correction doesn't last just a couple of days 

touché
A runaway Bull market doesn't stop at $1200 when greed (and a falling Dollar) can easily take it much higher.    

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[Bit_Happy]

Please consider this about what you are calling short-sighted and stupid:

I think people who look at past bubbles/crashes and say we need to have another drop simply based on previous patterns are extremely short sided and, frankly, pretty stupid.

• "Patterns" are a reflection of human emotion, and previous history is ignored by the "short-sighted and stupid."
• Fun Tip: When the patterns do not produce the result you expect (or the "obvious" wave count was wrong), you tend to get some of the largest moves.
• In other words, when the "smartest" traders are caught by surprise, then you tend to get the strongest showing of Greed and/or Fear....I hope we see those times again soon.  

[BrightAnarchist]

Your wave count has been dead wrong.

You missed 90 pct of the up-move.

I bought coins at 6 cents and again between $3 and $5. The explosion from 6 cents *drawfs* the move from $50. Those were the best buying opportunities: buy when there's blood on the street. I don't like to buy when everyone loves Bitcoin, and we didn't reach a negative enough sentiment during the decline that happened last April.

*Of course* a contrarian methodology is not perfect - obviously! You are not telling me any new information. And anyone who believes a perfect methodology exists obviously has no market experience. But contrarianism has worked well for me over the long haul, especially the killing I made during the 2008 crash when all my friends were losing their shirts, an event that we are likely to repeat soon. I may have been too early on stocks but given just how much more profitable stock market crashes are than equity bull markets, it won't matter. The magnitude of overbullishness and the length of time stocks have remained overbought should be commensurate with the size of the next bear market

I can't stand these hindsight biased comments, but I recognize the psychological tendency

[Bit_Happy]

...The magnitude of overbullishness and the length of time stocks have remained overbought....

Do you make any adjustments for the falling Dollar when calling stocks "too high?"
As the Dollar falls the "real value of stocks" (assuming they have any real value) is no longer "as high", only the numbers are inflated (i.e 2008 Dow 14,500 does not equal 2014 Dow 14,500)

When stocks are "overbought" (along with a much lower Dollar) the targeted low might be 11,000 (for example) instead of 6,500 or 7,000, or do you predict a real crash, like Dow = 1,500 by 2015?

[Bit_Happy]

If I remember correctly the all time high was at the end of November. 2 months later we are 30% below. This is by definition a bear market.

Yes, a medium-term bear/correction which might surprise many of the Bears by turning and stampeding straight to $2,000* or even $3,500 or higher.  

Edit:
*Actually, markets rarely stampede straight to $2,000, instead there are many exciting "corrections" that do not last long enough to be called real corrections.

[FierceRadish]

Your wave count has been dead wrong.

You missed 90 pct of the up-move.

I bought coins at 6 cents and again between $3 and $5. The explosion from 6 cents *drawfs* the move from $50. Those were the best buying opportunities: buy when there's blood on the street. I don't like to buy when everyone loves Bitcoin, and we didn't reach a negative enough sentiment during the decline that happened last April.

Can you make an honest assessment of whether buying and holding $100 of BTC @ 6 cents per coin would now be worth more or less than the gains you have made trading the BTC market?

[Zarathustra]

Your wave count has been dead wrong.

You missed 90 pct of the up-move.

I bought coins at 6 cents and again between $3 and $5. The explosion from 6 cents *drawfs* the move from $50. Those were the best buying opportunities: buy when there's blood on the street. I don't like to buy when everyone loves Bitcoin, and we didn't reach a negative enough sentiment during the decline that happened last April.

*Of course* a contrarian methodology is not perfect - obviously! You are not telling me any new information. And anyone who believes a perfect methodology exists obviously has no market experience. But contrarianism has worked well for me over the long haul, especially the killing I made during the 2008 crash when all my friends were losing their shirts, an event that we are likely to repeat soon. I may have been too early on stocks but given just how much more profitable stock market crashes are than equity bull markets, it won't matter. The magnitude of overbullishness and the length of time stocks have remained overbought should be commensurate with the size of the next bear market

I can't stand these hindsight biased comments, but I recognize the psychological tendency

Congrats. You're an early adopter. I hope you've never been going SHORT since you are calling the top!
I'm a late adopter. I bought at 29.-, and I'm very glad today that I did not listen to those wrong wave counts. Otherwise I would have sold at 50.- or 80.-, which would not be funny today.

[BrightAnarchist]

The point of this thread is to debate the future price direction of bitcoin, not to devolve into personal attacks against me. For those who want debate im all ears, but i have now put several posters on ignore, thanks. And any more that want to post pointless personal attacks will be put on ignore too

[BrightAnarchist]

If I remember correctly the all time high was at the end of November. 2 months later we are 30% below. This is by definition a bear market.

Yes, a medium-term bear/correction which might surprise many of the Bears by turning and stampeding straight to $2,000* or even $3,500 or higher.  

Edit:
*Actually, markets rarely stampede straight to $2,000, instead there are many exciting "corrections" that do not last long enough to be called real corrections.

This is entirely possible. I am basing my bearish opinion on the strong correlation between bitcoin and stocks since its inception, and the fact that stocks appear to have (finally) turned. If the correlation fails, or if stocks have not begun a bear market, then i will be wrong on this call.

And yes, I thought the 266 peak in April was a major top and i didn't see the next bull since we didn't get oversold enough. That surprised me and it could definitely happen again.

[FierceRadish]

The point of this thread is to debate the future price direction of bitcoin, not to devolve into personal attacks against me. For those who want debate im all ears, but i have now put several posters on ignore, thanks. And any more that want to post pointless personal attacks will be put on ignore too

Not sure if I'm on ignore -- don't believe I made a personal attack -- but I am genuinely interested in your answer to my previous question.

But hey, no worries if not.

[mp420]

I believe BTC is grossly overvalued at the moment and a long term target is around $400 but the price will fall significantly below that before stabilizing there.

Nevertheless, I'm not at all sure that we've yet seen the peak of the bubble.

[Zarathustra]

The point of this thread is to debate the future price direction of bitcoin, not to devolve into personal attacks against me. For those who want debate im all ears, but i have now put several posters on ignore, thanks. And any more that want to post pointless personal attacks will be put on ignore too

You can't debate somebody's predictions for the future without debating the track record of his predictions in the past. This is not a pointless attack of the person. It is questioning the performance of the methods of somebody.

[davidgdg]

I'm a late adopter. I bought at 29.

 

[BrightAnarchist]

Bitcoin plunges as major exchange halts withdrawals

http://money.cnn.com/2014/02/07/investing/bitcoin-withdrawal-halt/

[BrightAnarchist]

Hit $302 on gox! Man, I love crashes. Now we just need the freaking U.S. markets to start playing catch-up and collapse already

[BrightAnarchist]

Just broke $266, which was the high of wave 3. This is significant for psychological reasons

And yet, in my estimation, and the coming mean-reversion bounces notwithstanding, the bear market in Bitcoin is just getting started

[proudhon]

Just broke $266, which was the high of wave 3. This is significant for psychological reasons

And yet, in my estimation, and the coming mean-reversion bounces notwithstanding, the bear market in Bitcoin is just getting started

It would be significant if MtGox weren't almost completely decoupled from the wider market.

[N12]

Just broke $266, which was the high of wave 3. This is significant for psychological reasons

And yet, in my estimation, and the coming mean-reversion bounces notwithstanding, the bear market in Bitcoin is just getting started

It would be significant if MtGox weren't almost completely decoupled from the wider market.

Indeed. MtGox is not representative of BTC prices anymore, even moreso than when they had their +20% premium on the upside.

Who actually lost wealth on mtgox's BTC/USD price going down except for MtGox users? Coinbase, Bitpay etc. do not use MtGox prices, apart from other exchanges.

[T.Stuart]

Just broke $266, which was the high of wave 3. This is significant for psychological reasons

And yet, in my estimation, and the coming mean-reversion bounces notwithstanding, the bear market in Bitcoin is just getting started

Yeah but BTC-e broke it days ago.

Also Gox went to near-zero in the past.

Today is a reflection of Gox the company - everyone knows that (hopefully).

In a sense we are watching a company going bankrupt minute by minute; under normal circumstances not many people could watch such a situation unfold in such painful detail. But this is being broadcast live to the world!

[proudhon]

Just broke $266, which was the high of wave 3. This is significant for psychological reasons

And yet, in my estimation, and the coming mean-reversion bounces notwithstanding, the bear market in Bitcoin is just getting started

It would be significant if MtGox weren't almost completely decoupled from the wider market.

Indeed. MtGox is not representative of BTC prices anymore, even moreso than when they had their +20% premium on the upside.

Who actually lost wealth on mtgox's BTC/USD price going down except for MtGox users? Coinbase, Bitpay etc. do not use MtGox prices, apart from other exchanges.

This is really interesting to watch.  A few days ago I was somewhat optimistic about MtGox's chances of recovering and re-syncing, more or less, with the broader markets, but I'm much less optimistic about that now.  I'm inclined to think we really are watching the death of an exchange.  Nearly every major bitcoin price aggregator has abandoned MtGox and all the major non-exchange liquidity pools haven't used MtGox prices to negotiate buys and sells for many months (SecondMarket, for example).