Are there any other Optimistic Bears?

[T.Stuart]

Just broke $266, which was the high of wave 3. This is significant for psychological reasons

And yet, in my estimation, and the coming mean-reversion bounces notwithstanding, the bear market in Bitcoin is just getting started

It would be significant if MtGox weren't almost completely decoupled from the wider market.

Indeed. MtGox is not representative of BTC prices anymore, even moreso than when they had their +20% premium on the upside.

Who actually lost wealth on mtgox's BTC/USD price going down except for MtGox users? Coinbase, Bitpay etc. do not use MtGox prices, apart from other exchanges.

This is really interesting to watch.  A few days ago I was somewhat optimistic about MtGox's chances of recovering and re-syncing, more or less, with the broader markets, but I'm much less optimistic about that now.  I'm inclined to think we really are watching the death of an exchange.  Nearly every major bitcoin price aggregator has abandoned MtGox and all the major non-exchange liquidity pools haven't used MtGox prices to negotiate buys and sells for many months (SecondMarket, for example).

I just hope, in a last flash of decency, Mark Karpeles takes the exchange offline voluntarily while attempting to sort out the mess. Gox needs a break!

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[proudhon]

Just broke $266, which was the high of wave 3. This is significant for psychological reasons

And yet, in my estimation, and the coming mean-reversion bounces notwithstanding, the bear market in Bitcoin is just getting started

It would be significant if MtGox weren't almost completely decoupled from the wider market.

Indeed. MtGox is not representative of BTC prices anymore, even moreso than when they had their +20% premium on the upside.

Who actually lost wealth on mtgox's BTC/USD price going down except for MtGox users? Coinbase, Bitpay etc. do not use MtGox prices, apart from other exchanges.

This is really interesting to watch.  A few days ago I was somewhat optimistic about MtGox's chances of recovering and re-syncing, more or less, with the broader markets, but I'm much less optimistic about that now.  I'm inclined to think we really are watching the death of an exchange.  Nearly every major bitcoin price aggregator has abandoned MtGox and all the major non-exchange liquidity pools haven't used MtGox prices to negotiate buys and sells for many months (SecondMarket, for example).

I just hope, in a last flash of decency, Mark Karpeles takes the exchange offline voluntarily while attempting to sort out the mess. Gox needs a break!

And by "takes the exchange offline" we should mean "closes shop".  For MtGox, I just don't see how they recover from this.  This is an especially bad time to have another Gox-up, since in the US a lot of money from VCs and other large profitable firms is now moving to create "regulated" and professionally managed exchanges.  At this point, it's just really difficult to imagine any noteworthy portion of market participants sticking with MtGox, when much better and more trustworthy alternatives already exist and even more trustworthy exchanges are on the horizon.  The good guy thing for Gox to do at this point is stop the exchange, give people back as much money as they can, and close shop.  Bye, bye, Gox.

[T.Stuart]

Just broke $266, which was the high of wave 3. This is significant for psychological reasons

And yet, in my estimation, and the coming mean-reversion bounces notwithstanding, the bear market in Bitcoin is just getting started

It would be significant if MtGox weren't almost completely decoupled from the wider market.

Indeed. MtGox is not representative of BTC prices anymore, even moreso than when they had their +20% premium on the upside.

Who actually lost wealth on mtgox's BTC/USD price going down except for MtGox users? Coinbase, Bitpay etc. do not use MtGox prices, apart from other exchanges.

This is really interesting to watch.  A few days ago I was somewhat optimistic about MtGox's chances of recovering and re-syncing, more or less, with the broader markets, but I'm much less optimistic about that now.  I'm inclined to think we really are watching the death of an exchange.  Nearly every major bitcoin price aggregator has abandoned MtGox and all the major non-exchange liquidity pools haven't used MtGox prices to negotiate buys and sells for many months (SecondMarket, for example).

I just hope, in a last flash of decency, Mark Karpeles takes the exchange offline voluntarily while attempting to sort out the mess. Gox needs a break!

And by "takes the exchange offline" we should mean "closes shop".  For MtGox, I just don't see how they recover from this.  This is an especially bad time to have another Gox-up, since in the US a lot of money from VCs and other large profitable firms is now moving to create "regulated" and professionally managed exchanges.  At this point, it's just really difficult to imagine any noteworthy portion of market participants sticking with MtGox, when much better and more trustworthy alternatives already exist and even more trustworthy exchanges are on the horizon.  The good guy thing for Gox to do at this point is stop the exchange, give people back as much money as they can, and close shop.  Bye, bye, Gox.

Please can this happen next week!

[Lethn]

Anyone who really believes that markets can only ever go up or down regardless of what is being traded is a moron, even the dollar and the global markets occasionally go up despite the fact we all know it's all being devalued like crazy, so assuming Bitcoin is going to always go up because it's the opposite of the dollar is foolish. I'm definitely bullish on Bitcoin long term but it's never going to be a true currency without having to face some real difficulties otherwise people can't test how the code works and fix any problems that occur.

[T.Stuart]

Anyone who really believes that markets can only ever go up or down regardless of what is being traded is a moron, even the dollar and the global markets occasionally go up so assuming Bitcoin is going to always go up because it's the opposite of the dollar is foolish, I'm definitely bullish on Bitcoin long term but it's never going to be a true currency without having to face some real difficulties otherwise we can't test how well the code works.

Yes of course.

But I propose that today we are watching a company in trouble, and not the price of Bitcoin. They really are two completely separate things now.

[Lethn]

Yes, problem is people out there can't seem to tell the difference >_< I really hope the first thing that people do with Bitcoin when they hear about it is research it rather than listen to the b.s. run by television.

[theta]

But I propose that today we are watching a company in trouble, and not the price of Bitcoin. They really are two completely separate things now.

True. In fact, the wider the spread between the two, the healthier BTC appears.

[rmines]

Just broke $266, which was the high of wave 3. This is significant for psychological reasons

And yet, in my estimation, and the coming mean-reversion bounces notwithstanding, the bear market in Bitcoin is just getting started

It would be significant if MtGox weren't almost completely decoupled from the wider market.

Indeed. MtGox is not representative of BTC prices anymore, even moreso than when they had their +20% premium on the upside.

Who actually lost wealth on mtgox's BTC/USD price going down except for MtGox users? Coinbase, Bitpay etc. do not use MtGox prices, apart from other exchanges.

I'm pretty sure MtGox going bust would be all over the media, as many still seem them as 'the' exchange for bitcoin.
This would create panic, and panic is what drives the price lower..

[evolve]

It seems that opinions on Bitcoin are primarily divided into two categories:

(1) BULLS: People who grok Bitcoin, and thus are perma-bulls

(2) BEARS: People who do not grok Bitcoin, and thus are perma-bears

I would like to propose a third, new, much rarer category:

(3) OPTIMISTIC BEARS: People who grok Bitcoin and believe in its future, yet acknowledge that, at present, Bitcoin and especially alt-coins are still in the midst of a major speculative bubble that must deflate before the next growth phase can begin.

If you're in category 3, then please join me in this thread. Welcome to the home of the optimistic bears. I would like to hear from you.

Your definitions are completely wrong. That isnt even close to what the terms "bear" and "bull" mean, and the term "optimistic bear" is a meaningless oxymoron.


I guess we need to review this again.

Definition of 'Bear'

An investor who believes that a particular security or market is headed downward. Bears attempt to profit from a decline in prices. Bears are generally pessimistic about the state of a given market.
http://www.investopedia.com/terms/b/bear.asp



Definition of 'Bull'

An investor who thinks the market, a specific security or an industry will rise. Investors who takes a bull approach will purchase securities under the assumption that they can be sold later at a higher price.

A "bear" is considered to be the opposite of a bull. Bear investors believe that the value of a specific security or an industry is likely to decline in the future.
http://www.investopedia.com/terms/b/bull.asp



Why do people on this forum find that hard to grasp?  If you currently think the market is going to decline, your a bear, if you currently think it will go up, you are a bull.  Every investor will react to the market and alternate between bullish or bearish.  "Bull" and "bear" have nothing to do with your individual market philosophy, it is simply a reflection of where you currently think the price is going.


tl:dr There is no such thing as "permabear" or "permabull" or "optimistic bear"...those are a basterdization of terms by people who dont understand basic investment terms.

[BrightAnarchist]

It seems that opinions on Bitcoin are primarily divided into two categories:

(1) BULLS: People who grok Bitcoin, and thus are perma-bulls

(2) BEARS: People who do not grok Bitcoin, and thus are perma-bears

I would like to propose a third, new, much rarer category:

(3) OPTIMISTIC BEARS: People who grok Bitcoin and believe in its future, yet acknowledge that, at present, Bitcoin and especially alt-coins are still in the midst of a major speculative bubble that must deflate before the next growth phase can begin.

If you're in category 3, then please join me in this thread. Welcome to the home of the optimistic bears. I would like to hear from you.

Your definitions are completely wrong. That isnt even close to what the terms "bear" and "bull" mean, and the term "optimistic bear" is a meaningless oxymoron.


I guess we need to review this again.

Definition of 'Bear'

An investor who believes that a particular security or market is headed downward. Bears attempt to profit from a decline in prices. Bears are generally pessimistic about the state of a given market.
http://www.investopedia.com/terms/b/bear.asp



Definition of 'Bull'

An investor who thinks the market, a specific security or an industry will rise. Investors who takes a bull approach will purchase securities under the assumption that they can be sold later at a higher price.

A "bear" is considered to be the opposite of a bull. Bear investors believe that the value of a specific security or an industry is likely to decline in the future.
http://www.investopedia.com/terms/b/bull.asp



Why do people on this forum find that hard to grasp?  If you currently think the market is going to decline, your a bear, if you currently think it will go up, you are a bull.  Every investor will react to the market and alternate between bullish or bearish.  "Bull" and "bear" have nothing to do with your individual market philosophy, it is simply a reflection of where you currently think the price is going.


tl:dr There is no such thing as "permabear" or "permabull" or "optimistic bear"...those are a basterdization of terms by people who dont understand basic investment terms.

Wow evolve I had no idea that bulls think prices are going up, and bears think they're going down. Thanks for letting me know

That said, I clarified the OP slightly, because you are caught up in terms and obviously don't understand my partitioning and therefore the point I'm making

[aminorex]

I keep hearing this "the price is not in line with the fundamentals" argument. But this argument is completely unqualifiable.  It is pure unadulterated opinion.

I did some blockchain math today and estimated the fundamental value at 640USD, for January.  (Using less than a full month of data is pretty meaningless.)

I suspect that means 3 things:

1) price will tend down short term, as lack of speculative premium indicates very low sentiment, so capitulation should be immanent,

2) economy growth is still very much on the exponential track, so there should be an upward price shock again,

3) and in this speculative momentum-chasing community that should mean another 2x or more overshoot spike, when it happens.

On plan so far.