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Author Topic: Why endless supply will make Dogecoin worthless  (Read 6671 times)
crazy_rabbit (OP)
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February 06, 2014, 10:36:31 AM
 #1

Now that Dogecoin is endless and infinite, it's inevitable that this will depress the price to near worthlessness.

Why?

Simple- there's no reason to BUY dogecoin anymore. Just mine it. You can always mine it. No matter how slow your hashing equipment is, EVENTUALLY you will be able to mine the same amount of Dogecoin that you  might have otherwise bought. The speculative skyrocket price of bitcoin is based on the known factor that eventually there will be no more to mine and that it's getting ever increasingly difficult to mine. With Dogecoin there is infinite supply, so there is no need to speculatively hold coins, so no need to push the price up dramatically. Just slowly accumulate if you really want to hold them, there will always be more coins so there is no artificial impetus to fight over the coins in a free market.

With dogecoin, patience is now your friend rather than enemy. If you just wait, even with your little GPU video card, eventually you will have mined the same amount that you could have purchased. Enormous mining centers have no need to rush to invest in dogecoin mining now- they can take their time and enter the market whenever they want. There is no rush or pressing need to enter the market now. The payout is the same, now or later. No difference. You might argue, as dogecoin gets harder to mine that should be an incentive- true, but it's a much smaller incentive then "if we wait too long there will be none left!". It's also a less certain incentive. Dogecoin might go up in value, but if the supply is going up as well, a mining firm that's making cost estimates, doesn't need to take into account "might go up in value", it only needs to figure out how much it's worth right now, because mining it will only be a factor of how much it's worth to mine it right now, since the reward continues forever.

With bitcoin, there is a paranoia about waiting too long- getting into the game, too late. You have to mine now while the difficulty is still below a trillion! You have to buy now before the price is below a million! You have to accumulate and hoard and fight over coins while you still can!

Dogecoin has sealed it's own fate in the marketplace and will eventually I suspect, trend to a number equal to it's actually right-now utility (which might be zero). There's no reason for the price to be influenced by any sort of long term speculation.

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February 06, 2014, 10:47:34 AM
 #2

dogecoin is a joke , everyone knows that .

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February 06, 2014, 10:55:27 AM
 #3

I don't understand, that the price is rising atm?

It has today the best performence of the 30 big coins.
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February 06, 2014, 11:13:38 AM
 #4

I don't understand, that the price is rising atm?

It has today the best performence of the 30 big coins.

two things are infinite, the universe and human stupidity
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February 06, 2014, 11:34:51 AM
 #5

I don't understand, that the price is rising atm?

It has today the best performence of the 30 big coins.

two things are infinite, the universe and human stupidity


And now doge

<.<

>.>
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February 06, 2014, 11:39:38 AM
 #6

That said,it has very good publicity going for it.

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February 06, 2014, 11:44:49 AM
 #7

Except it'll be more expensive because of electricity to mine for a small timer than their profits. Just like Bitcoin. At 10,000 coins per minute, the big boys will take nearly everything.
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February 06, 2014, 11:50:09 AM
 #8

All DOGE haters are holding Litecoin. Nothing to see here.

Litecoin is going to continue its dive into oblivion, DOGE and Litecoin will swap places soon.

This whole depreciation thing is meaningless to DOGE as a coin.

1) Bitcoin is currently depreciating and will continue to depreciate for A LONG TIME
2) It is software and can and will change
3) Only crypto geeks make up dumb reasons like forever growing coins to not buy DOGE, everyone that is actually buying DOGE is buying it because it is going to the moon.


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February 06, 2014, 12:02:37 PM
 #9

All DOGE haters are holding Litecoin. Nothing to see here.

Litecoin is going to continue its dive into oblivion, DOGE and Litecoin will swap places soon.

This whole depreciation thing is meaningless to DOGE as a coin.

1) Bitcoin is currently depreciating and will continue to depreciate for A LONG TIME
2) It is software and can and will change
3) Only crypto geeks make up dumb reasons like forever growing coins to not buy DOGE, everyone that is actually buying DOGE is buying it because it is going to the moon.



I agree with You


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February 06, 2014, 12:18:54 PM
Last edit: February 06, 2014, 12:38:54 PM by r0ach
 #10

There are many problems with your hypothesis.

1)  For short or mid term investment, just about every coin is inflating at a rapid pace currently.  It's the equivalent of living in Zimbabwe, and that's the nature of non-linear block reward.  Doge will actually be inflating less than many other coins for short term interval, and negligible difference for mid term.  The dogeflation will be 3% inflation in 2029.

2)  Coins lost per year in crypto is a pretty high number.  I think even NXT, which has a user base of what?  50 people? that bought an IPO managed to lose 5% already, when the thing hasn't even been out a few months.  If you gave a conservative number of 1% lost per year, then dogeflation is only at 2% in 2029, and 1% in 2045.  Things like car accidents, deaths, or natural disasters will also cause many coins to disappear from the economy.  This is a variable most people just don't comprehend, and it might even be larger than most people think.  Think about it, when a person dies and has a wallet laying on the bed, someone will eventually pick it up.  If someone dies with an encrypted wallet, that thing is going nowhere.  It's hard to believe, but it's possible the dogeflation might not even cover lost coins.

3)  Broken PoW system - If your market cap isn't high enough, you can't keep a block chain up with transaction fees only.  Doge has now placed itself in a position where it's going to exist forever even if it slips to #20 market cap, while other coins that some might consider "better", are going to fail without enough mining incentive.  I was pushing for an infinite, non-zero block reward (1%) on Vertcoin for this reason, which would probably be completely canceled out by coins lost anyway, resulting in the coin having more security through higher mining incentive, while still remaining hyper deflationary.  

4)  In general terms, a hyper deflationary currency does not create a lot of economic activity because you can just horde money to make money, rather than invest it into a business or other venture.  The Doge liquidity will now be through the roof since it has a small demurrage fee.  Increased liquidity may lead to increased adoption, which then completely negates the demurrage, increasing it's value over competitors.  It's the equivalent of AOL sending out millions of dollars in AOL CDs to everyone on the planet.  Yes, it cost them money to do so (same thing as demurrage), but they probably made money from the investment.  Doge is now the AOL of crypto.

I really could go on for days here.  As for 0% vs 1% inflation, the %1 choice has literally no downfall whatsoever, since like I said, the currency would still remain deflationary due to lost coins, and it would only increase block chain security through mining incentive, but the seemingly much larger Doge number may cause it to outperform my safe, 1% choice through some of the not so obvious means I listed.

Another guy wrote an article covering some similar, and some different points to mine here:

http://theblogchain.com/2014/02/03/dogecoin-is-not-mugabecoin-a-discussion-of-inflation/


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February 06, 2014, 12:42:56 PM
 #11

I also do not agree with the OP.

As Keynes (I think it was him Cheesy) said 'A little inflation is a good thing'. And he is dead right about that!

Just take a look at Japan over the last 10 years.

I think that a coin without inflation is doomed to be purely a wealth vessel which then begs the question 'How do you maintain the network without many transactions or mining'.

I think any coin that is meant to be currency should follow the rule of the Universe! Strong initial inflation to target size over short term followed by 5% inflation thereafter.
The inflation should be given to miners not POS - IMHO POS encourages people to save instead of lending out for interest.
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February 06, 2014, 12:59:25 PM
 #12

All DOGE haters are holding Litecoin. Nothing to see here.

Litecoin is going to continue its dive into oblivion, DOGE and Litecoin will swap places soon.

This whole depreciation thing is meaningless to DOGE as a coin.

1) Bitcoin is currently depreciating and will continue to depreciate for A LONG TIME
2) It is software and can and will change
3) Only crypto geeks make up dumb reasons like forever growing coins to not buy DOGE, everyone that is actually buying DOGE is buying it because it is going to the moon.



+1

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February 06, 2014, 01:03:54 PM
 #13

As Keynes said

I'm not a Keynesian, the reason for my answers is based on the technical design of the Bitcoin, PoW protocol, where inflation plugs some holes in potential design problems.

In the real world, something like gold has continuous units brought in through mining, while some gold is also used/lost in industry.  In general terms, a negative and positive factor of balance.  Bitcoin has a negative factor through the much underestimated lost coins issue I talked about, while having no positive factor to counter it like real world gold.  More deflationary than gold, or "hyper deflationary", is probably not a good thing for something that's supposed to be used as a currency.  It's better than being scammed by the Federal reserve, just not an ideal solution.

I think Gavin and the other people have probably figured this out by now, but they either:

A)  don't have the balls to try and correct it since it would have them labeled as Keynesian

B)  know it might crash the market making such a drastic change

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February 06, 2014, 01:10:20 PM
 #14

All DOGE haters are holding Litecoin. Nothing to see here.

Litecoin is going to continue its dive into oblivion, DOGE and Litecoin will swap places soon.

This whole depreciation thing is meaningless to DOGE as a coin.

1) Bitcoin is currently depreciating and will continue to depreciate for A LONG TIME
2) It is software and can and will change
3) Only crypto geeks make up dumb reasons like forever growing coins to not buy DOGE, everyone that is actually buying DOGE is buying it because it is going to the moon.



14 year old boii detected.

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February 06, 2014, 01:29:11 PM
 #15

There are many problems with your hypothesis.

1)  For short or mid term investment, just about every coin is inflating at a rapid pace currently.  It's the equivalent of living in Zimbabwe, and that's the nature of non-linear block reward.  Doge will actually be inflating less than many other coins for short term interval, and negligible difference for mid term.  The dogeflation will be 3% inflation in 2029.

True, but people aren't hoarding bitcoin for it's short or mid term investment- they are hoarding it for it's long term value, a value that is more or less pinned on the idea it's a limited supply. Gold wouldn't be so valuable if it were infinite in supply. Neither are the equivalent of living in Zimbabwe- in Zimbabwe you have no idea how many units of your currency will exist next year, let alone tomorrow. So it's a totally different thing.

Quote

2)  Coins lost per year in crypto is a pretty high number.  I think even NXT, which has a user base of what?  50 people? that bought an IPO managed to lose 5% already, when the thing hasn't even been out a few months.  If you gave a conservative number of 1% lost per year, then dogeflation is only at 2% in 2029, and 1% in 2045.  Things like car accidents, deaths, or natural disasters will also cause many coins to disappear from the economy.  This is a variable most people just don't comprehend, and it might even be larger than most people think.  Think about it, when a person dies and has a wallet laying on the bed, someone will eventually pick it up.  If someone dies with an encrypted wallet, that thing is going nowhere.  It's hard to believe, but it's possible the dogeflation might not even cover lost coins.


There is a lot of talk about lost coins, but there's no way to prove a coin is lost unless someone verifiably destroys it. Just because it hasn't moved since the beginning of Bitcoin doesn't mean it's for sure lost. Even gold in sunken civil war ships gets brought back into circulation now and then. I don't think lost coins are really relevant.

Quote

3)  Broken PoW system - If your market cap isn't high enough, you can't keep a block chain up with transaction fees only.  Doge has now placed itself in a position where it's going to exist forever even if it slips to #20 market cap, while other coins that some might consider "better", are going to fail without enough mining incentive.  I was pushing for an infinite, non-zero block reward (1%) on Vertcoin for this reason, which would probably be completely canceled out by coins lost anyway, resulting in the coin having more security through higher mining incentive, while still remaining hyper deflationary.  



Interesting, but the blockchain, even if only supported by transaction fee's will always be supported to the level equal to the coins utility. The market cap doesn't really matter- bitcoins are mined at an enormous loss to miners, yet the fear of being 'too late' and 'running out of bitcoins' keeps the pace of mining rocketing forward. Bitcoin's market cap is far below the investment in mining and supporting the blockchain, yet it still works, and it works primarily because of the speculative value of it. Transaction fees will always cost a 'fair market value', so there will always be some incentive to do it.

Quote
4)  In general terms, a hyper deflationary currency does not create a lot of economic activity because you can just horde money to make money, rather than invest it into a business or other venture.  The Doge liquidity will now be through the roof since it has a small demurrage fee.  Increased liquidity may lead to increased adoption, which then completely negates the demurrage, increasing it's value over competitors.  It's the equivalent of AOL sending out millions of dollars in AOL CDs to everyone on the planet.  Yes, it cost them money to do so (same thing as demurrage), but they probably made money from the investment.  Doge is now the AOL of crypto.


So, a flash in the pan of internet history? If they made so much money from the investment- where are they now?

Quote
I really could go on for days here.  As for 0% vs 1% inflation, the %1 choice has literally no downfall whatsoever, since like I said, the currency would still remain deflationary due to lost coins, and it would only increase block chain security through mining incentive, but the seemingly much larger Doge number may cause it to outperform my safe, 1% choice through some of the not so obvious means I listed.

I still don't buy the lost coins argument, if only because coins are currently lost because our bitcoin developed tools are not sufficiently advanced at the moment to protect users from their own errors. No reason to assume that in the future bitcoin software wont be so smart as to prevent lost coins and keep that lost-coin rate at a very low minimum.

Anyway though, you didn't really respond to the key part of my argument- if the coin supply is infinite: there is no need to actually purchase coins. For any number of coins you might want to posses- you need only need to mine long enough, regardless of your mining power, and eventually you will mine that number of coins. Imagine for example the bitcoin block reward was fixed at 50BTC forever: I wouldn't have to worry about my ASIC ROI, right? Because eventually if I wait long enough, it will always ROI. The only way it could NOT ROI would be if the value of BTC steadily decreased, so that despite the number of BTC I mined I never make enough to cover the initial cost of my ASIC.

With doge then, maintaining the value of your coin will require maintaining your relative percentage of all existing coins. It's not enough to have a billion coins out of ten billion today if in 100 years my 1 billion coins will be only 1 billion out of 100 billion. Over a long enough time frame, whatever percentage of dogecoins you own today, they will eventually be worth nothing. With bitcoins, large and powerful miners can come in an claim a vast portion of the mining power, thus mining the bulk of the coins. However if they were to start today with a massive mining operation, we already know they can never mine more then 50% of the coins, as more then 50% have already been mined. With dodgecoin however, a large entity, powerful enough, could eventually have mined 99% of all dogecoins. Gaining total monopolisation over dogecoin is only a question of time and patience, if you have the resources, you could technically mine, at some point in the future, 99% of all the dogecoins in existence. However with bitcoin, this is already impossible to do.

In the long run, it's infinite inflation. I don't see what sort of argument can counter infinite inflation making each individual unit of money worthless.

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February 06, 2014, 01:30:00 PM
 #16

Not sure it will be worthless, but clearly much less reason to HOLD it but more reason to USE it.  Doge should be easier to convince people to spend now rather than horde like almost every other current cryptocurrency.  I could basically see a user holding BTC and then just converting a little of it to DOGE to actually buy something.

Doge was a joke that became a big deal and through the actions of the development team will either go back to being a joke (since there is no way they can get around their sloppy initial coding and/or lying) or actually now promises something new - a crypo with considerable infrastructure that is no longer deflationary.
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February 06, 2014, 01:33:20 PM
 #17

For investing Doge is the worst option.
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February 06, 2014, 01:34:54 PM
 #18

Not sure it will be worthless, but clearly much less reason to HOLD it but more reason to USE it.  Doge should be easier to convince people to spend now rather than horde like almost every other current cryptocurrency.  I could basically see a user holding BTC and then just converting a little of it to DOGE to actually buy something.

Doge was a joke that became a big deal and through the actions of the development team will either go back to being a joke (since there is no way they can get around their sloppy initial coding and/or lying) or actually now promises something new - a crypo with considerable infrastructure that is no longer deflationary.


I see this as the same thing. Bad investment, but will be a usable currency.

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February 06, 2014, 01:42:03 PM
 #19

there's no reason to BUY dogecoin anymore. Just mine it.

I enjoyed this post and would agree with a lot of what the OP said, but I guess we disagree on whether this is good or bad thing for dogecoin.  Dogecoin isn't going to be speculatively traded the way bitcoin has been and shouldn't be subject to the same wild swings either.  It's value should rise slowly and be equal to its utility which again I believe will rise slowly. No one misses the boat, everyone can make some coins from mining.  It is the perfect setup for a virtual currency that people can spend without fear.  This to my mind is already happening, but it is still too early in the game to know for sure if it can go truly viral.  

The other point to consider is that if the value does start to fall back, the developers can fix that bug and cap the coins just like any central bank would do.
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February 06, 2014, 02:19:50 PM
 #20

Man this is going to be epic...

Waiting for the 1 doge = 1 USD crowd to show up.


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