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Author Topic: The Alt Crypto Market is normalising - HUGE OPPORTUNITIES!!  (Read 2773 times)
glerant (OP)
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February 06, 2014, 12:21:50 PM
Last edit: February 06, 2014, 05:38:42 PM by glerant
 #1


A pattern is emerging, in my opinion, in the Alt Crypto market.

This pattern started mid January and is accelerating daily. It comprises two elements;

1:) There is a gradual disconnect between BTC and Alt Cryptos. Before the new year the alt markets were locked tightly to the fortunes of BTC/USD.
The cycles were locked together - the alts moved in the same cycle as BTC/USD with winner and loser alts only marginally competing.
Now, more and more we have favoured Alts moving opposite the BTC/USD cycle. I think some of this can be put down to influences like http://coinmarketcap.com/ who list Alts in USD$ rather than the traditional Alt exchanges who list in BTC. This trend will accelerate as more Fiat gateways open for Alts and more pairs open up in Exchanges.

2:) Up till (and including) middle of Jan a huge proportion of trading was driven by Hypes, Pumps and big BTC holders 'playing' with the ALT markets. A case in point was PROTO, Quark, NXT, DOGE (I list these coins because of past events I am not predicting their future status!) - the list goes on. Now, an inexorable and increasing trend is that trading is driven by fundamentals and the whole market is up for grabs. 1st tier coins are increasingly being traded purely on fundamentals and not their glorious past. 3rd tier coins that are battle weary and proven are also being traded on their fundamentals. Everything is up for grabs and 1st tier coins will sink - 3rd tier will rise purely on fundamentals!  Smiley I see this as the market 'growing up'. The changes to the rules on this forum also encourage trading on fundamentals.

By fundamentals I mean;
The technical aspects of the coin - usability, supply, hash protocol etc
Technical Innovation
The name of the coin
Distributed or Centralised
The network hashing power and distribution
The ethos of the coin - Premine, No Premine, etc etc
The support infrastructure for the coin - Devs, Webmasters, Pools, Services
The Coin Community
The USD$ price of the coin


I see more of this analysis going into trading nowadays and I believe this trend will go on.

For example; Why are Protoshares with a 1.5M supply $12 and yet Vertcoin with 1.5M is still only $6? Well, until January 2014, the answer would have categorically been - because Protoshares is a 2nd Tier Alt and Vert is a 3rd tier stupid!
However I now believe that this is 'yesterdays thinking' and these prices will meet very quickly! The fundamentals of Vertcoin are pretty strong so, personally, I think that Vertcoin will surpass Protoshares. Another trader looking at Protoshares may disagree and argue that the fundamentals give Proto the edge. The point here is that the coins released pre September 2013 have to fight for their status on the basis of fundamentals ONLY!  Smiley

Now I am not saying that 1st and 2nd tier coins WILL fall - I just say that their place in the pecking order us being re-evaluated. I actually believe that some coins with a chequered past and some infamy will do well in this new Paradigm.

So! You haven't read this rant & rave this far not to be given a list of coins that I believe have good fundamentals for very strong growth in the short term eh? That would not do at all! We would have nothing to argue about on this thread!

I'll keep it brief; I leave out coins that are already at what I consider 'normal market price' based on their fundamentals. (IMHO of course)

Quark      [QRK] - Yes, that shocked you didn't it! It may have previous misdemeanours, real or perceived but this is the here and now. It's shaken off its past, anyone can mine it, it was first to use 9 rounds and it is very cheap.

Ripple      [XRP] - Well, another shock! It's not even a proper cryptocurrency. However I believe that it has a very strong chance of taking a huge chunk of Paypal and EMV merchant business. I wish I had more than a few hundred! (I think I will put my BTC where my mouth is!)

VertCoin  [VTC] - A good example of the new Paradigm in the alt markets - Excellent fundamentals and cheap compared to 1st/2nd tier currencies. Still room for strong                       growth

Frozen    [FZ] - A bit like Quark this one! Had a bit of a dodgy start but was taken over by an excellent and talented community. The fundamentals are strong on this one and, despite its relative rarity, its very cheap!

Netcoin   [NET] - All fundamentals look good with this - apart from no major innovation - could say the same about LTC! A nice touch is the 'foundation' who actually show their faces! Very Cheap!

Memory [MMC]  As above and with good innovation. Very Cheap! (Bloody hell! I had better buy some of these myself!)

eMark    [DEM] A difficult one this. I believe that BTC needs some alt SHA256 coins to survive long term - a bit like the birds who pick ticks off of the crocodiles!  Grin The alt winner(s) will show strong growth - I think DEM has those fundamentals but it could be another like freicoin (motivation/cause) or Asic (does what it says on the tin).

eToken    [ETOK] - Another contender for very strong growth short term. Good fundamentals and very cheap. Could get a kick from another exchange listing.

Argentum [ARG] - Ditto above! (Again! I had better get some of these in!)

Xivra       [XVR] - I saved the best for last! This little gem has excellent fundamentals! It is low diff and new with excellent devs and roadmap/services. Anyone who mines or buys this over the next few weeks is going to do very very well in my opinion!


QQC is also worth a look IMHO

To sum up my analysis - Alt trading is shifting to a more mature level. Fundamentals are more important than age or hype/pump. Don't buy anything from the above list before a:) you research that coin and b:) you agree with my analysis!  Wink

Research! Research! and then buy/mine!  Grin



lasciv
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February 06, 2014, 12:25:32 PM
 #2

Alt section is becoming more and more interesting. A lot of well thought threads showing up.

Anyone else thinks the things are improving?
glerant (OP)
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February 06, 2014, 12:30:04 PM
 #3

I think the change in the rules here has definitely made a big impact!
Also I think more traders from the stock and forex markets are entering.

I expect a lot of us here have experienced a good shafting in forex or stocks on an MT4 screen and thought (In the words of Johnny Rotten) 'Ever get the feeling you've been cheated?' Because the big banks, traders and market makers make and break all the rules.
nobodysbusiness
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February 06, 2014, 03:34:32 PM
 #4

I think that MemoryCoin's ticker symbol is actually MMC now. Isn't 'MEM' the symbol for MemeCoin?
glerant (OP)
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February 06, 2014, 05:37:56 PM
 #5

I think that MemoryCoin's ticker symbol is actually MMC now. Isn't 'MEM' the symbol for MemeCoin?

Thanks! I fixed that! Now, decisions, decisions!
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February 06, 2014, 06:33:24 PM
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I will say, interesting thoughts, but do you have any data shoring up your beliefs in these particular coins strong fundamentals? If there are fundamentals that make these particular coins better, then you must have some type of comparative analysis that shows this. I'm just curious how you weigh fundamentals, and what criteria you use (in terms of verifiable and comparative data that is).
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February 06, 2014, 08:21:02 PM
 #7

I will say, interesting thoughts, but do you have any data shoring up your beliefs in these particular coins strong fundamentals? If there are fundamentals that make these particular coins better, then you must have some type of comparative analysis that shows this. I'm just curious how you weigh fundamentals, and what criteria you use (in terms of verifiable and comparative data that is).


Not sure if OP can give the fundamentals,more like the new rules prevent multiple spam threads  so the threads have evolved into hype cloaked as fundamentals Grin
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February 06, 2014, 08:56:57 PM
Last edit: February 06, 2014, 09:28:27 PM by Slingshot
 #8


Quark      [QRK] - Yes, that shocked you didn't it! It may have previous misdemeanours, real or perceived but this is the here and now. It's shaken off its past, anyone can mine it, it was first to use 9 rounds and it is very cheap.

Ripple      [XRP] - Well, another shock! It's not even a proper cryptocurrency. However I believe that it has a very strong chance of taking a huge chunk of Paypal and EMV merchant business. I wish I had more than a few hundred! (I think I will put my BTC where my mouth is!)

VertCoin  [VTC] - A good example of the new Paradigm in the alt markets - Excellent fundamentals and cheap compared to 1st/2nd tier currencies. Still room for strong                       growth

Frozen    [FZ] - A bit like Quark this one! Had a bit of a dodgy start but was taken over by an excellent and talented community. The fundamentals are strong on this one and, despite its relative rarity, its very cheap!

Netcoin   [NET] - All fundamentals look good with this - apart from no major innovation - could say the same about LTC! A nice touch is the 'foundation' who actually show their faces! Very Cheap!

Memory [MMC]  As above and with good innovation. Very Cheap! (Bloody hell! I had better buy some of these myself!)

eMark    [DEM] A difficult one this. I believe that BTC needs some alt SHA256 coins to survive long term - a bit like the birds who pick ticks off of the crocodiles!  Grin The alt winner(s) will show strong growth - I think DEM has those fundamentals but it could be another like freicoin (motivation/cause) or Asic (does what it says on the tin).

eToken    [ETOK] - Another contender for very strong growth short term. Good fundamentals and very cheap. Could get a kick from another exchange listing.

Argentum [ARG] - Ditto above! (Again! I had better get some of these in!)

Xivra       [XVR] - I saved the best for last! This little gem has excellent fundamentals! It is low diff and new with excellent devs and roadmap/services. Anyone who mines or buys this over the next few weeks is going to do very very well in my opinion!


QQC is also worth a look IMHO

To sum up my analysis - Alt trading is shifting to a more mature level. Fundamentals are more important than age or hype/pump. Don't buy anything from the above list before a:) you research that coin and b:) you agree with my analysis!  Wink

Research! Research! and then buy/mine!  Grin


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


 Yea, well, it's time to go back to the drawing board and do much better research!

CPU Types:

 CPU type coins are merely scammed up coins engineered for vast bot-net's, most likey for use by their developers, and released on an unsuspecting public as merely a coin for the masses. Maybe difficult  to believe or accept, but it's the end result, intended, or otherwise.

 CPU type crypto's don't exactly have a lock on the future as their exposed for what they really are, and why. In fact it's likely obvious as the truth becomes widely known that their apt to be first to crash and burn.

 Even the new Maxcoin may suffer the same fate. These CPU coins are not what they appear to be since some actors are never going to play fair, and will utilize illegal bot-nets to make millions, while others receive crumbs for their cpu mining efforts. Not exactly a good public relations thing there going forward, after close scrutiny is had.


VRT:

 VRT coin is like almost every coin when released, just after release it soars on speculative greed by fools and dreamers.

 Then finally when that demand fades due to far too high of pricing right then reality sets in, and of course the pricing dramatically drops quickly from that point, to find it's true supported price trading range.

 Maybe VRT will prove to be the exception, but it's very doubtful. Then again maybe at least it wont be another lame-coin that is anything but what it was claimed to be: ie: "asic resistant".

 Then again maybe VRT is ground breaking. It's not impressing myself much yet, but then only a tiny minority of crypto's have ever impressed me. And even some of those that I termed masterpieces ended up to my own disappointment, to have not lived up to what I thought they were. Worst still, even after closer inspection I was still fooled into thinking they were much better than what reality really is.

 With as many VRT's as there will be in total, as  many as litecoin, as I recall, added to the fact that alt. coins are a dime a dozen, it's quite easy to conclude many are smoking a pipe dream of riches while driving head first into a looming crash, most likely. At least when it comes to the vast majority of alternatives to bitcoin. In fact all but maybe less than a dozen, depending on how things play out.

 Conclusion: VRT will quickly drop in price dramatically. Unless that is purchasing demand keeps up, or keeps outstripping supply. That's not likely since VRT too just like almost every crypto does at it's beginning grossly and dramatically favors the earliest adopters, whom mostly dump it as soon as they mine it, and run to btc for shelter from the inevitable continuous dumps.


 Ripple:

 Ripple, the jury is still out of if the Ripple Network is ultimately acceptable, What with it's
"need to extend trust" model needing to past the test of time. There is real risk in that model for the users, large risks, so indeed it will take time to work through all that. And see if it's a viable alternative to legacy networks, and if limitations and risks can be managed well enough.

 The Others:

 Alternative to Bitcoin are a dime a dozen. And recently they have become a dime per one hundred. And finally now rather suddenly alternatives to bitcoin are a dime per one thousand, and so on.

2014

 2014 is truly a race to the mainstream marketplace. And it's Winner(s) take all. So far only Bitcoin has proven it's medal, with all others still lagging far behind. Or are already becoming laggard losers themselves, and merely masquerading as something that they wont ever be.

 Only a few, or several, maybe up to a a dozen, or maybe two dozen, ultimately end up winning. No one knows how few or many will ultimately end up longer term winners/solutions. But already it's obvious that Bitcoin will take at the least half the entire mainstream marketplace all by itself, and possibly much more, or even almost all of it. At least that's what my own thinking already has evolved to. And why Bitcoin will face attacks from all corners from here out.

 It's fantasy to think many, or most crypto's will last longer term. No one will care to juggle so many cryptos, and certainly not any businesses and merchants. At least not more than they must. With one being their favorite number.

 Ethical coins are great, and all that. But it wont do them a bit of good (pun intended with the "bit" part) if they don't get to market before the market is locked up in favor of something else. Once folks adopt the crypto's of their choice the rest are apt to quickly fade away. The entire marketplace is apt to mostly be dominated be merely 1 to 16 cryptos, and likely much of it by merely a 1 to 3 crypto's. Maybe that's a bitter pill, but it sure beats pipe dreams of riches by those trying to win this crypto lottery.




Caveat emptor - let the buyer beware
glerant (OP)
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February 07, 2014, 01:00:37 AM
 #9


 Yea, well, it's time to go back to the drawing board and do much better research!
 CPU type coins are merely scammed up coins engineered for vast bot-net's, most likey for use by their developers, and released on an unsuspecting public as merely a coin for the masses. Maybe difficult  to believe or accept, but it's the end result, intended, or otherwise.

Well we have to agree to disagree there!  Wink

75% of my cores are pointed at quark, 15% at frozen and and 10% at Ripple/BOINC.
I'm getting a few quarks/frozens/XRPs a day - I suspect nothing with any scrypt/scrypt jane or sha256/sha3 coin!
I really am at a loss how you consider the quark family of coins could be less secure than BTC - maybe some catastrophic dev error but not the core encryption.
Apart from BOINC let me know what else to point my cores at for pleasure and profit!
glerant (OP)
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February 07, 2014, 01:04:47 AM
 #10

I will say, interesting thoughts, but do you have any data shoring up your beliefs in these particular coins strong fundamentals? If there are fundamentals that make these particular coins better, then you must have some type of comparative analysis that shows this. I'm just curious how you weigh fundamentals, and what criteria you use (in terms of verifiable and comparative data that is).

Thanks, but unfortunately I do not have a spreadsheet analysis or rigid framework. However I do rigorously go through the list of fundamentals before I spend (or consider spending - a few coins on the list I do not (yet!) hold positions on). The process of going through that list is kind of subjective though. 
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