Underwater newbies - are you comforted by BTC's historical behaviour?

[gentlemand]

Or are you shitting yourself?

I myself was underwater for about two and a half years with Bitcoin. Despite that I was confident the price would recover eventually, though getting its skates on would certainly have helped.

Does reading about such a recovery and massive rise from a trough that gut wrenching give you any comfort if you're presently a long way down or is it none at all?

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[BitcoinNewbie15]

Ha, this post was sorta funny to me. I know a lot of them are underwater, some actually are ok with it though. I was telling my brother to buy BTC since it was $300. He bought some at $8000 and is Hodling still. He doesn't seem worried at all. I do admit, while I am not underwater either, it would be nice if I played the market just right... But hindsight is 20/20.

The most important thing I can say is to try not to trade too much, just hold on to your coins long-term newbies... Don't worry about the short term dips! Hodl long term, and believe in the future of Bitcoin.

[dothebeats]

They probably have their assets sold way before the price went down to $6000. Diving under $10000 probably brought anxiety to most of the newbies, so the best thing to do is jump out of the plane while they have the time. Most newbies right now have either bought @ $8000 or $9000 which, to me is still an acceptable entry. The market has a history of bouncing back way higher than its previous run, so it's still fine to hold at those bags if I was them.

[exstasie]

They probably have their assets sold way before the price went down to $6000. Diving under $10000 probably brought anxiety to most of the newbies, so the best thing to do is jump out of the plane while they have the time.

That's not usually how it works IMO. Late entrants to a bull market don't sell early. They hope against hope, waiting until they finally give up. They are usually the fuel for capitulation at the market bottom. Unfortunately, I still see a lot of hopeful sentiment around here. That's another reason I'm not confident the bottom is in.

Newbies got to pay their tuition.

[pooya87]

under water?
i was on cloud nine when i was a newbie back in 2014 as the price was dropping down from around $500 and reached $200 eventually. it is all a matter of perspective in my opinion. back then i would have given anything to have more fiat to dump and get bitcoin in return but naturally i only had a restricted amount of money to invest.
look where we are now. and i still would give anything to have more fiat to dump and get bitcoin in return so nothing has changed in my attitude either!

i took a little walk down memory lane after making this comment and it seems like the comments has not changed one bit in the past 4 years that i have been around.
there here is the classic doomsday reply to a silly topic i made back then (look at the date):

Bitcoin will fail, sell it all now

20 bucks or less.

I would say the main argument is that bitcoin is a psuedo currency that was pumped by a bunch kids speculating. I would say that is dead right.

We are going down, that's for sure, and I'm talking about <$50 down in the first months next year.

Sell now and buy back in when it's <$50.

You've been warned!

it is like dejavu

[davis196]

There`s no such thing as an "underwater" newbie.When the price does down,they just sell everything and leave the market with loss. Probably 1 out of every 100 newbies refuses to sell,when the trend is bearish.
Anyway,trading crypto is like playing poker.You just wait for the right time to strike.

[arpon11]

That is were my comfort really are.  I am holding because I believe that bitcoin is going to recover base on the historical data.  If we must buy bitcoin now should be the right time because those that loose hope in 2012 were regretting why they sold their holding when bitcoin went to $20,000 in December.

[1Referee]

There`s no such thing as an "underwater" newbie.When the price does down,they just sell everything and leave the market with loss. Probably 1 out of every 100 newbies refuses to sell,when the trend is bearish.

Don't write off newbies that quickly. I'm quite certain that a lot of them haven't sold but hold their bags in the hope that the price will recover. If you are virtually down so much on your investment, you don't even care anymore; you just hold till the chart candles start become green on a weekly basis again. What's there to lose? You can only gain I would say.

I know a few people that are down significantly on altcoins because they thought it was a good moment to buy the dip at the time Bitcoin was hovering around the $15,000 level, and they aren't selling. They just continue with their daily life and don't pay attention to what the market is doing, all in the hope that next year or the year after when they check back the price has gone up again. Maybe that's the best way to move forward for newbies, because it could technically work.

[Tankdestroyer]

Don't write off newbies that quickly. I'm quite certain that a lot of them haven't sold but hold their bags in the hope that the price will recover.
I know a few people that are down significantly on altcoins because they thought it was a good moment to buy the dip at the time Bitcoin was hovering around the $15,000 level, and they aren't selling.

That is only the case for people you know. I also know a handful of newbies who sold their stash instantly after bitcoin price has tanked to 9000$ level despite getting it near the peak price. Nevertheless, I do believe that there are some other newbies that still have not sold their bitcoins now and is currently holding it(they might sell it soon). For this reason, I believe we are not seeing the bottom yet.

[Pursuer]

Don't write off newbies that quickly. I'm quite certain that a lot of them haven't sold but hold their bags in the hope that the price will recover.
I know a few people that are down significantly on altcoins because they thought it was a good moment to buy the dip at the time Bitcoin was hovering around the $15,000 level, and they aren't selling.

That is only the case for people you know. I also know a handful of newbies who sold their stash instantly after bitcoin price has tanked to 9000$ level despite getting it near the peak price. Nevertheless, I do believe that there are some other newbies that still have not sold their bitcoins now and is currently holding it(they might sell it soon). For this reason, I believe we are not seeing the bottom yet.

the lower the price goes the less will be the number of newbies who are going to panic sell because most of them do their panic sells in the initial stages of the FUD and the biggest initial drop. meaning somewhere around $8k-$9k the majority of them were pushed out of the market an at this point ($6k levels) there aren't that many left.

on top of that the lower the price goes the more incentive for people to buy bitcoin at cheaper price. which means there are more buyers now and there is more buy support with a bigger strength than before.
the result of these two means we are at the bottom already or not that far from it. I wouldn't keep my hopes up for a very low price as the bottom if I were you.

[exstasie]

under water?
i was on cloud nine when i was a newbie back in 2014 as the price was dropping down from around $500 and reached $200 eventually. it is all a matter of perspective in my opinion. back then i would have given anything to have more fiat to dump and get bitcoin in return but naturally i only had a restricted amount of money to invest.

You're definitely not a typical investor. I've got a broker friend and he agrees, the sentiment cycles that seem to play out in Bitcoin carry through to all markets. Very, very few people will react favorably to their investment dropping 60% in value, and most will sell at huge losses in that situation.

The OP definitely poses an interesting question. Back in 2014-2015, although somewhere in my mind I was a long term bull, there still wasn't enough history that I was sure that the long term trend would continue. Fortunately I had enough money to gamble with that I kept a good deal of coins cold from years ago. But I did still consider it a gamble.

After 2017, I'm much more confident.

[Bitmore1]

I started buying at $600, and was scared to watch it fall to 210 or so,,, so I took a chance and kept buying.  The last BTC I bought was at around 1200, so I am happy right now. 

Yea, we could all still lose it all if something weird happens,,, or on the other hand John McAffe might not have to eat his johnson on TV and I RETIRE,,, but,,,

No guts no glory.

[pooya87]

under water?
i was on cloud nine when i was a newbie back in 2014 as the price was dropping down from around $500 and reached $200 eventually. it is all a matter of perspective in my opinion. back then i would have given anything to have more fiat to dump and get bitcoin in return but naturally i only had a restricted amount of money to invest.

You're definitely not a typical investor. I've got a broker friend and he agrees, the sentiment cycles that seem to play out in Bitcoin carry through to all markets. Very, very few people will react favorably to their investment dropping 60% in value, and most will sell at huge losses in that situation.

The OP definitely poses an interesting question. Back in 2014-2015, although somewhere in my mind I was a long term bull, there still wasn't enough history that I was sure that the long term trend would continue. Fortunately I had enough money to gamble with that I kept a good deal of coins cold from years ago. But I did still consider it a gamble.

After 2017, I'm much more confident.

there are a couple of facts that makes me think this way:
1. the potential of bitcoin and the growth that it can have in the long term. the supply is limited and the adoption is no more than a tiny bit of the whole world (<1%) and it is growing. if you are back in that time seeing price @$400 and know that it has a very good chance of rising to a lot higher than this, you will consider that price a bargain.
2. i said i was happy between $500 and $200, not $1200-$1000. in other words when price has already dropped 60%-70% we are at the bottom. obviously, not being able to see the  future, you can't say where the actual bottom is so you have to work with what you are dealt with.
3. i invest what i can afford to lose.

it was not a gamble, it still isn't. it is an investment with a higher risk and a higher reward.

[exstasie]

under water?
i was on cloud nine when i was a newbie back in 2014 as the price was dropping down from around $500 and reached $200 eventually. it is all a matter of perspective in my opinion. back then i would have given anything to have more fiat to dump and get bitcoin in return but naturally i only had a restricted amount of money to invest.

You're definitely not a typical investor. I've got a broker friend and he agrees, the sentiment cycles that seem to play out in Bitcoin carry through to all markets. Very, very few people will react favorably to their investment dropping 60% in value, and most will sell at huge losses in that situation.

The OP definitely poses an interesting question. Back in 2014-2015, although somewhere in my mind I was a long term bull, there still wasn't enough history that I was sure that the long term trend would continue. Fortunately I had enough money to gamble with that I kept a good deal of coins cold from years ago. But I did still consider it a gamble.

After 2017, I'm much more confident.

2. i said i was happy between $500 and $200, not $1200-$1000. in other words when price has already dropped 60%-70% we are at the bottom. obviously, not being able to see the  future, you can't say where the actual bottom is so you have to work with what you are dealt with.

I was referring to the price dropping from $500 to $200. That's a 60% loss in value.

I get the dollar-cost averaging thing, and I don't expect anyone to catch the bottom. Just pointing out that most investors will be in a lot of pain by that point, and many would sell the bottom.

it was not a gamble, it still isn't. it is an investment with a higher risk and a higher reward.

All along, I think Bitcoin has had a binary fate: by its supply mechanism it will become extremely valuable OR it will be abandoned and fall to zero if demand falters. It's a speculative bet, not an investment in the traditional sense. We're betting on a specific outcome ("Bitcoin will become heavily adopted"), which is inherently a gamble. Maybe it's a good bet, but it's a gamble nonetheless.

[bedulook]

There is a relieve when the past behavior of bitcoins prices since it creation proves what is happening now is not the first time but bitcoins has gone through the same price movement in the past before.

[UnDerDoG81]

Was 60% in "loss" in 2013/14. Invested all my life savings. Patience pays off sometimes. Lets hope it will pay out this time as well. Since I did not sold any coin till today 

[pooya87]

We're betting on a specific outcome ("Bitcoin will become heavily adopted"), which is inherently a gamble. Maybe it's a good bet, but it's a gamble nonetheless.

i strongly disagree.
first of all bitcoin doesn't have to be "heavily" adopted to rise up. you can see that the half-assed tiny adoption that it had so far brought up to this point. and this adoption is still growing and has a lot more room to grow, so you have enough reason to believe in its higher price in the future.

secondly it has risks, but having risks doesn't make an investment a "gamble" even if the risks are higher than other sorts of investment. for instance when you buy stocks of a company ("traditional sense" of investment) you are still taking risks. that company can go bankrupt and burn to the ground (even the biggest ones) and you can lose all your money. if buying bitcoin is a gamble then buying stocks and by extension investing in anything else is also a gamble.

[cunese]

The historical behavior of BTC is to rise sharply and then keep falling, but the bottom price will increase every time, and the price of BTC will keep rising for a long time.

[gentlemand]

At a high enough risk level, any "investment" must be a gamble. This applies to plenty of penny stocks and HYIP schemes.

Why has the word 'speculation' not popped up in this conversation? That's more appropriate terminology. I definitely would not class it as an investment myself. There's a little more to it than a pure gamble.

[BitHodler]

It will be surprising to know that some of the newbie didn't even bother to check up on the history price of bitcoin before investing. I mean, this is what I believe cause the constant panic whenever the price begins to dip. Some just heard about how someone who invested in bitcoin become rich, and they rush to invest in it without knowing that there was more endurance before the profit.

People don't care about Bitcoin's past. They only care about what the market does after they bought in, which explains why they are extremely shocked during corrections. It completely catches them by surprise.

These people are part of every market, even the more traditional ones that are considered somewhat safe by the mainstream elite. At the end of the day, these people grant you your profits.

Without suckers doing worse than you with their investments, you won't be able to profit. Money doesn't fall out of the sky and land straight into your wallet, suckers pay for your luxury and wealthy life.