Bitcoin will probably reach 4500-5000, following seasonality pattern.

[vladimir21]

In the last 50 years,on average the June/september/october are the worst months. And are very bearish.

WHen bitcoin fell down below 6500 i confirmed that we may be following seasonal pattern, which means we could see a pump around july/august. But the lowest all time bitcoin will be around september/october.

So i put a bet on around 4500-5000 for these months.

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[Wind_FURY]

I believe we are witnessing capitulation and the bears have the control now, and it might be followed by another long movement of nothing for two years until the next halving. Kwukduck might be right in his $3,500 target to buy back after all. Hahaha.

[Lampaster]

I believe we are witnessing capitulation and the bears have the control now, and it might be followed by another long movement of nothing for two years until the next halving. Kwukduck might be right in his $3,500 target to buy back after all. Hahaha.

Why do bears always lower prices? Everything has limits. It seems to me that the decline in prices to 5900 dollars is a temporary phenomenon. Bears test their strength and calculate the economic effect of further price reduction. In the end, the death of bitcoin is not beneficial to anyone. Bears want to give the steering wheel to the bulls but they don't want to take it and it can be a problem for everyone.

[airdagon]

yup, the situation can now be called with the annual tradition. look back, to previous years, in the middle of the year the price is always experiencing a sharp and significant decline. but, by the end of the year prices will rise back to higher levels. I think the price will only drop to $ 5000- $ 5,500 in these months.

[Don Pedro Dinero]

In the last 50 years,on average the June/september/october are the worst months. And are very bearish.

WHen bitcoin fell down below 6500 i confirmed that we may be following seasonal pattern, which means we could see a pump around july/august. But the lowest all time bitcoin will be around september/october.

So i put a bet on around 4500-5000 for these months.

You are comparing pears to oranges. Why should bitcoin behave the same way the stock market has?

Apart from that, statistics are constructions we make to understand the past, but they usually fail to predict the future, and when they fail, the new data is included in the new statistics.

How would you follow this sequence? 1,2,3,4

The obvious answer seems: 5,6,7,8. But if you see that it is followed by 1,2,3,4, you will change your prediction about the following number.

So, if you have a sequence like: 1,2,3,4,1,2,3,4 how would you follow it?

The obvious answer seems: 1,2,3,4. But again, depending on what you see after you will have to change your predictions.

[davis196]

I believe we are witnessing capitulation and the bears have the control now, and it might be followed by another long movement of nothing for two years until the next halving. Kwukduck might be right in his $3,500 target to buy back after all. Hahaha.

Why do bears always lower prices? Everything has limits. It seems to me that the decline in prices to 5900 dollars is a temporary phenomenon. Bears test their strength and calculate the economic effect of further price reduction. In the end, the death of bitcoin is not beneficial to anyone. Bears want to give the steering wheel to the bulls but they don't want to take it and it can be a problem for everyone.

Off course it is.Every bitcoin price at every moment is a"temporary phenomenon".
Nobody wants the death of bitcoin,the bears will make enough profits,but they will become bulls during the outumn or maybe the winter,in order to make more money.I don`t believe that much in the bulls/bears market theory.It`s just a bunch of traders,who act as bulls or bears ,when the moment is right.

[timerland]

I don't know about your reason for bitcoin dropping to $4500-5000, since I simply have no idea whether or not the seasonal changes in BTC is really something that is tangible or not. It's hard to say at this point.

You also mentioned the fact that we may see a small bull run in July/August, which is possible, but isn't guaranteed. But even if that does happen, it's not going to influence the overall market trend too much, as the sentiment is going to stay bearish and the pump itself will be undoubtedly short-lived.

But yes, I think that bitcoin will bottom out at levels between $4k-5k. When that happens, I have no idea, but since the $6.7k support was broken I think we're definitely going to be consolidating lower before the recovery.

[LFC_Bitcoin]

I believe we are witnessing capitulation and the bears have the control now, and it might be followed by another long movement of nothing for two years until the next halving. Kwukduck might be right in his $3,500 target to buy back after all. Hahaha.

He’s utterly clueless & it’s been proven again & again with his overly bearish predictions over the years.

[Wind_FURY]

I believe we are witnessing capitulation and the bears have the control now, and it might be followed by another long movement of nothing for two years until the next halving. Kwukduck might be right in his $3,500 target to buy back after all. Hahaha.

Why do bears always lower prices? Everything has limits. It seems to me that the decline in prices to 5900 dollars is a temporary phenomenon. Bears test their strength and calculate the economic effect of further price reduction.

But the new "lower high" after the bottoming on "lower lows" will be another "temporary phenomenon" too and it can decline back again to $5,900 or lower, creating a new low for 2018.

In the end, the death of bitcoin is not beneficial to anyone. Bears want to give the steering wheel to the bulls but they don't want to take it and it can be a problem for everyone.

No. Bears like to sell short and would like to keep the steering wheel for as long as they can.

[Herbert2020]

In the last 50 years,on average the June/september/october are the worst months. And are very bearish.

bitcoin was created 9 years ago not 50 and what happens in other markets (stocks for example) has nothing to do with bitcoin. they may have certain patterns and do certain things in certain seasons but not bitcoin.

WHen bitcoin fell down below 6500 i confirmed that we may be following seasonal pattern, which means we could see a pump around july/august. But the lowest all time bitcoin will be around september/october.

the problem with these patterns is that there is a lot of them and most of them contradict each other. for example there was a lot of patterns suggesting we will see a rise in February, that didn't happen. then again in April and that didn't happen either. and again we have June patterns that suggest we should have seen a rise but that didn't happen either.
you see for every pattern that comes true there is another that didn't.

[buwaytress]

I think Bitcoin's already broken the seasonal pattern this year (recall the supposed January rebounds and then a failure to repeat the overall Spring gains), but in this case, I also sense yet another period of pre-year end downturn, following a brief rally in coming months. Not that my senses have been helping me in any way this particular year.

As Herbert above points out, though, patterns aren't helpful since we all see what we want to. That's the strength of charting - they illustrate a point, rather than help us arrive at one.

[Tankdestroyer]

Kwukduck might be right in his $3,500 target to buy back after all. Hahaha.

He’s utterly clueless & it’s been proven again & again with his overly bearish predictions over the years.

At the very least his prediction in this thread has come to fruition(see the last reply on the thread). That being said, I believe he is not utterly clueless, his prediction might become true again this time and being overly bearish it is just his way of saying things.

WHen bitcoin fell down below 6500 i confirmed that we may be following seasonal pattern, which means we could see a pump around july/august. But the lowest all time bitcoin will be around september/october.

I think we are done being in the season where bitcoin follows a seasonal pattern because of Chinese manipulation. Now that bitcoin has been adopted more, I believe we won't see any seasonal pattern anymore but I believe we will probably reach 4500-5000 USD before the next bullish run happens.

[suzanogbomo]

it is obvious that the bears are winning with a market cap that fell below 250 billion from an all time high of about 900 billion. Maybe the bulls will return towards the close of the year.Expert predictions say bitcoin will hit 30k $ by year end.

[vladimir21]

No, it's a good indicator. Since it is a 50 years seasonal average. Crypto market basically follows stock market pattern. And according not just me but also some well known names know that btc is following season pattern from now on, which means no drastic bullish increases as it is too risky.

[LexLuther]

What about Nov/Dec?  I would expect a good pump the end of the year.  It seems with more regulatory clarity coming out of the States hopefully we can see an ETF or some big institutional investors open up the markets for retirement accounts. 

[BrewMaster]

i am no expert to say anything about this "season pattern" that you are talking about here although my small experience tells me it doesn't sound true.
but this part is definitely not true:

which means no drastic bullish increases as it is too risky.

it is not a random thing that these big rises happen. it is because of combination of two things: 1. the small size of the market 2. the nature of adoption.
so far bitcoin adoption has been drastic and each time it brought a lot of investors in, in a short time. for instance last year during the $20k rally Coinbase was reporting 1 million sign ups in a couple of days.
add to that the fact that the order books are still thin and you will see these drastic rises AND falls.

[BillyBobZorton]

The summer makes people feel good and bullish, I think we are going to have a bull market, which may not cut it for an ATH so we will have further dipping after that, and we may or not may go lower than the February 22 2018 bottom... maybe a triple bottom will be it?

If the tripple bottom scenario doesn't hold we are going on that range you pointed to unfortunately (or fortunately, since I just want to buy more before it goes to $1,000,000)

[Wind_FURY]

Kwukduck might be right in his $3,500 target to buy back after all. Hahaha.

He’s utterly clueless & it’s been proven again & again with his overly bearish predictions over the years.

At the very least his prediction in this thread has come to fruition(see the last reply on the thread). That being said, I believe he is not utterly clueless, his prediction might become true again this time and being overly bearish it is just his way of saying things.

I have the same opinion. I believe he is only trolling us when he posts his extremely bearish predictions, but behind that he buys the bottom and sells the top when he trades.

He is also annoying but I support his prediction of $3,500 per Bitcoin. Haha.

[Theb]

I don't think that we are following the price history of the stock market as our basis on where Bitcoin will go, for one BTC is on a separate market compared to the stocks, and even that does not prove that we can have the same trend as what they are having. Also one of the most vital factors we are having is that we have a changing demand remember that Bitcoin has soared 1000$ in just 30 minutes if it wants to as seen before, and BTC being on the down trend ever since January I don't think that we will follow any kind of bullish or bearish patterns, this volatile market can go either way.

[talkbitcoin]

At the very least his prediction in this thread has come to fruition(see the last reply on the thread). That being said, I believe he is not utterly clueless, his prediction might become true again this time and being overly bearish it is just his way of saying things.

just because someone predicts some price and it comes true it doesn't mean they are good at "predicting bitcoin price" and it certainly doesn't mean their future so called predictions are going to also come true.
you can roll a dice 10 times and win in a dice gambling game but that doesn't make you a future teller.