In the last 50 years,on average the June/september/october are the worst months. And are very bearish.
WHen bitcoin fell down below 6500 i confirmed that we may be following seasonal pattern, which means we could see a pump around july/august. But the lowest all time bitcoin will be around september/october.
So i put a bet on around 4500-5000 for these months.
Bitcoin doesn't follow the seasonal pattern in this year, the chart almost completely different until today as the price keeps declining since February and no sign to rise anytime soon. Bitcoin price affected by many factors but news contribute to influence people, whether there are so many bad news or good news around will trigger buy and sell in the market. If there are some new development and acceptance, the price will increase soon and vice verse, we can predict the market by keep watching the latest news even though it's not 100% accurate. Can't say the price will rise or fall again, just let the market bearish or bullish in the time frame.