I would be really surprised if we dropped below 5k.
To be honest I think that due to the very size of the btc market it is being manipulated heavily. Therefore, normal analysis techniques go out the window.
That's just my (cynical) view though! Perhaps others have a different opinion?
I think Bitcoin could drop below $ 5,000, to about $ 4,800, as it fell to this price a few months ago, just for a moment, but fell. And now it can also fall to this price and then begin to rise. This graph is called a Cup. I don't know about that theory. It's interesting, but I'm just starting to understand the trade.