China Holiday Ended Yesterday. China wakes again in about 5 hours. Predictions?

[fonzie]

Gox is rising without any volume, means price is being maipulated heavily. Pay attention to the spread between, stamp and BTC-E if you notice they are always similar, as they are not being manipulated internally.  

THIS. 0.0007 bought 50 dumped repeat - price keeps risin,  lol

[adam9317]

Slightly off the topic but do you think it is worth buying on stamp and selling on btc-e for the slight profit or is the market to volatile at the minute to do that?

[BitChick]

Wow! $5000 before the end of Feb!?  I so hope you are right!

Probably more like $10000, but I don't have a chart with lines painted on it to hand, so I didn't want to make that call just yet.

Is it this log (Log)-Linear chart that was posted a while ago?  http://bildr.no/view/ZFowYlNi  According to that chart we are only supposed to be at about $2500 at the end of February.  It spikes pretty fast from there though and predicts $10,000 by May.  

Of course we often move faster than the charts predict only to settle back down to where the growth line really is so perhaps with that in mind we can be ahead of schedule.

[Dalmar]

Slightly off the topic but do you think it is worth buying on stamp and selling on btc-e for the slight profit or is the market to volatile at the minute to do that?

Stamp is better to be at during 'dumps' (stamp usually drops the lowest), but during regular periods BTC-e is a more interesting exchange to trade (more volatile).

[kireinaha]

Wow! $5000 before the end of Feb!?  I so hope you are right!

Probably more like $10000, but I don't have a chart with lines painted on it to hand, so I didn't want to make that call just yet.

Is it this log (Log)-Linear chart that was posted a while ago?  http://bildr.no/view/ZFowYlNi  According to that chart we are only supposed to be at about $2500 at the end of February.  It spikes pretty fast from there though and predicts $10,000 by May.  

Of course we often move faster than the charts predict only to settle back down to where the growth line really is so perhaps with that in mind we can be ahead of schedule.

lol that chart also indicates that we'll be halfway to a million dollar coin by early 2017. Well, we can dream, right?

[biafore]

I have took a risk and sold at £727. Hopefully the price will drop.

What are your predictions, how low can it goes in 24 hours?

I predict china has another massive sell off, based upon them hoping we would start a missive rally today. Our rally was minimal. If china starts the rally then it will go high, it china is still scared as I think they are, sell offs will continue threw the nite, another 100 dollar drop would not be hard. Imagine is stamp annonced they were stopping BTC withdrawls. Mt.Gox is huge in china and japan.

[MatTheCat]

I have took a risk and sold at £727. Hopefully the price will drop.

What are your predictions, how low can it goes in 24 hours?

All the previous corrections have followed a pattern of bouncing back up and touching resistance levels and then trending for a period of time. Since the price on the only exchange that really matters (Bitstamp) did go down to $619, we have already bounced back a lot. I would suggest that $750-$765 is the new resistance level....and if the previous 5-6 price slide recovery periods are anything to go by, you should get your chance to leave market with small profit.

.....however, even as I type this I am full of uncertainty and doubt, which is why I am myself keeping the fuck out of this for now. I would hate for anyone to make a wrong move on the basis of anything that I said, especially when I have no skin in the game myself.

[biafore]

I also think the bulls that are buying will soon be trapped. Hence the name Bull trap.

[biafore]

There is way to much fear in the market in china and japan to rise. Come Monday, now that is when the real test will be. If gox cant fix its withdrawal problem mass panic will happen, I guarantee that.

[Kramerc]

I have took a risk and sold at £727. Hopefully the price will drop.

What are your predictions, how low can it goes in 24 hours?

All the previous corrections have followed a pattern of bouncing back up and touching resistance levels and then trending for a period of time. Since the price on the only exchange that really matters (Bitstamp) did go down to $619, we have already bounced back a lot. I would suggest that $750-$765 is the new resistance level....and if the previous 5-6 price slide recovery periods are anything to go by, you should get your chance to leave market with small profit.

.....however, even as I type this I am full of uncertainty and doubt, which is why I am myself keeping the fuck out of this for now. I would hate for anyone to make a wrong move on the basis of anything that I said.

I sold a tiny bit of what I had bought earlier today at 747. Im expecting things to heat up before chinamen wake up, just as it happened as of late.

[adam9317]

I have took a risk and sold at £727. Hopefully the price will drop.

What are your predictions, how low can it goes in 24 hours?

I predict china has another massive sell off, based upon them hoping we would start a missive rally today. Our rally was minimal. If china starts the rally then it will go high, it china is still scared as I think they are, sell offs will continue threw the nite, another 100 dollar drop would not be hard. Imagine is stamp annonced they were stopping BTC withdrawls. Mt.Gox is huge in china and japan.

Bitcoin is such a volatile maeket!

If someone knew the future they would be minted!

[traderCJ]

There is way to much fear in the market in china and japan to rise. Come Monday, now that is when the real test will be. If gox cant fix its withdrawal problem mass panic will happen, I guarantee that.

Huobi is @ 763 right now.  Seems like they aren't terribly spooked.  In fact, they were the most stable out of all the exchanges.  I do agree though that gox painted themselves into a corner.  If Monday rolls around and we get another generic status update with no solution to the withdrawl problems, there will be another correction.

[biafore]

Slightly off the topic but do you think it is worth buying on stamp and selling on btc-e for the slight profit or is the market to volatile at the minute to do that?

No because then your money is in Bulgaria... Unless you plan to send Btc back, in that case your purely gambling. Minds well play black jack, at least their is strategy.

[kireinaha]

I think we'll trend between $720 - $760 this weekend, but drop down and test $600 again on Monday when it becomes even more apparent that MtGox is becoming insolvent.

[BitChick]

Wow! $5000 before the end of Feb!?  I so hope you are right!

Probably more like $10000, but I don't have a chart with lines painted on it to hand, so I didn't want to make that call just yet.

Is it this log (Log)-Linear chart that was posted a while ago?  http://bildr.no/view/ZFowYlNi  According to that chart we are only supposed to be at about $2500 at the end of February.  It spikes pretty fast from there though and predicts $10,000 by May.  

Of course we often move faster than the charts predict only to settle back down to where the growth line really is so perhaps with that in mind we can be ahead of schedule.

lol that chart also indicates that we'll be halfway to a million dollar coin by early 2017. Well, we can dream, right?

That is the conservative line.  So conservatively, yes!  Otherwise we will be there by the end of this year.

It is a beautiful chart.  

[biafore]

You will soon notice: the later it gets the lower the price goes. Hmm what does this mean

[biafore]

Get your fiat ready. I highly doubt after finding out your bank account is froze, and possibly f**ked, you would try to deposit more? just a thought, be realistic not a troll.

[wobber]

Wow! $5000 before the end of Feb!?  I so hope you are right!

Probably more like $10000, but I don't have a chart with lines painted on it to hand, so I didn't want to make that call just yet.

Is it this log (Log)-Linear chart that was posted a while ago?  http://bildr.no/view/ZFowYlNi  According to that chart we are only supposed to be at about $2500 at the end of February.  It spikes pretty fast from there though and predicts $10,000 by May.  

Of course we often move faster than the charts predict only to settle back down to where the growth line really is so perhaps with that in mind we can be ahead of schedule.

Lol... it will never happen girl...

[EvilPanda]

I have took a risk and sold at £727. Hopefully the price will drop.

What are your predictions, how low can it goes in 24 hours?

All the previous corrections have followed a pattern of bouncing back up and touching resistance levels and then trending for a period of time. Since the price on the only exchange that really matters (Bitstamp) did go down to $619, we have already bounced back a lot. I would suggest that $750-$765 is the new resistance level....and if the previous 5-6 price slide recovery periods are anything to go by, you should get your chance to leave market with small profit.

.....however, even as I type this I am full of uncertainty and doubt, which is why I am myself keeping the fuck out of this for now. I would hate for anyone to make a wrong move on the basis of anything that I said, especially when I have no skin in the game myself.

This might've been true but what we're dealing with now is not a price correction. It's a sell due to possible exchange scam/fail, so it doesn't have to follow the bounce pattern. It now depends on whether gox manages cash flow or not, if not everybody will move their money, price will temporarily go down and back up as other exchanges receive the money. If they do, price should slowly recover to ~$900.

[JorgeStolfi]

To me, it is obvious that this mini-crash was started and driven mostly by China.  

Just check the price and volume charts.  The drop started at the same time in all exchanges, which happens to be Feb/07 07:00 06:00 am in China; and things calmed down again at the same time, which is about 02:30 01:30 am in China.   There was a smaller drop yesterday, which started at 08:00 am sharp - China time.

Since the Nov/2013 rally, and probably since much earlier, the Chinese exchanges have been running the show and defining the Bitcoin price.  BTC-China was the leader at first, but since mid-December it has practically died and Huobi and OKCoin have taken the lead.  They usually account for 70% or more of the total volume at the exchanges monitored by the main charting sites.  

Bitcoin price moves when the Chinese are trading; it stagnates when they go to bed, go on vacation, or are hung over from the previous night's party.  Arbitrage trading, preumably by a small group of professional traders, must be spreading the price swings in China to all other exchanges.   Traders outside China are then spurred by those price swings to react, at weird hours of the day.

My theory for the cause of this mini-crash is that the Chinese banks have re-opened after the Chinese New Year holidays (some on Feb/06, most today).  That made it possible for the Chinese investors to again withdraw money from the exchanges.  At that point, many of those who had become disillusioned with bitcoin during the week choose to dump and withdraw.

I don't think that the Apple ban had much impact on traders' mood, in China or elsewhere.  Most bitcoin investors were attracted by the promise of quick huge profits, not by the long-term dream of electronic payments without banks.   And the typical Chinese investor probably does not know or care about non-Chinese exchanges, Mt.GOX included.