[2018-06-25] Investopedia - ETH and BTC Not Securities: Where's the Surge?

[gentlemand]

https://www.investopedia.com/tech/eth-and-btc-not-securities-wheres-surge/

An interesting bit of analysis from someone in the article though I've no idea how he linked it to this announcement -

'Yaniv Altshuler, CEO and Founder of the AI-powered predictive analytics platform Endor claims that the company has "analyzed the blockchain activity in the weeks prior to this announcement and have detected the formation of several structures - each comprising dozens of thousands of wallets. These formations are seemingly decentralized yet display highly correlated behavior. In the days before the announcement took place, we observed that these entities started accumulating large amounts of ETH and BTC. We suspect that this implies the existence of a prior information that was know to whoever operated these large collection of wallets. This behavior acted in part as a "cushion", creating early demand before the announcement, and absorbing some of the demand that was created following it, by releasing tokens back to the market."

These “operators” hold significant influence and have been suspected to manipulate and distort prices for their own benefit.'

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[figmentofmyass]

people are always trying to concoct these theories.

"We suspect that this implies the existence of a prior information"---it could have just been any old accumulation/distribution pattern. it could have been based on any prior information, or none at all. market makers use thick liquidity to put a lid (or a bottom) on markets all the time; ranges are profitable. they don't always succeed, but they usually do because they're just playing into natural supply/demand cycles.

i think the lack of surge is better explained by the simple fact that we're in a bear market. good news is a reason to sell into bounces, and euphoria is short-lived. i'm guessing this guy wasn't trading the corn back in 2014. anyway one remember the paypal pump? probably not, because while price was expected to surge, everyone sold into the pump and price kept falling.....

[gentlemand]

people are always trying to concoct these theories.

"We suspect that this implies the existence of a prior information"---it could have just been any old accumulation/distribution pattern. it could have been based on any prior information, or none at all. market makers use thick liquidity to put a lid (or a bottom) on markets all the time; ranges are profitable. they don't always succeed, but they usually do because they're just playing into natural supply/demand cycles.

i think the lack of surge is better explained by the simple fact that we're in a bear market. good news is a reason to sell into bounces, and euphoria is short-lived. i'm guessing this guy wasn't trading the corn back in 2014. anyway one remember the paypal pump? probably not, because while price was expected to surge, everyone sold into the pump and price kept falling.....

What was the Paypal pump? I've no memory of that at all.

That amply demonstrates what so many of these people can't wrap their heads around. News, or rather good news, has virtually nothing to do with what the price does. It's going to do what it's going to do no matter what.

2014, Gox and China aside which obviously nullifies everything else anyway, was heaving with good news. The doom train had left the station anyway and nowt was going to stop it.

[bbc.reporter]

@figmentofmyass. Would that then mean that the news do not matter, or does bad news matter more in bear markets, and good news matter more in bull markets?

I reckon if that ruling was released on December 2017 then we might have seen bitcoin pump twice higher than the all time high.

[figmentofmyass]

people are always trying to concoct these theories.

"We suspect that this implies the existence of a prior information"---it could have just been any old accumulation/distribution pattern. it could have been based on any prior information, or none at all. market makers use thick liquidity to put a lid (or a bottom) on markets all the time; ranges are profitable. they don't always succeed, but they usually do because they're just playing into natural supply/demand cycles.

i think the lack of surge is better explained by the simple fact that we're in a bear market. good news is a reason to sell into bounces, and euphoria is short-lived. i'm guessing this guy wasn't trading the corn back in 2014. anyway one remember the paypal pump? probably not, because while price was expected to surge, everyone sold into the pump and price kept falling.....

What was the Paypal pump? I've no memory of that at all.

it's funny, cuz it sure seemed like a big deal among us traders at the time. in late september 2014, news emerged that paypal merchants would now be able to accept bitcoin.

here's a picture of "the paypal pump":


literally a one day pump. a great excuse to sell. i was hoping the term would stick better than it did....can't seem to find any remnants of it on the interwebz.

[darkangel11]

And guess who was spreading the news. Coindesk, the most popular crypto FUD network. They weren't confirming the news before publishing back in 2014 and they aren't doing it now.
As for the manipulation, if people see a way to make money, they will do it, even if it's against the law. Karpeles was pumping with a bot and spending it all on fancy apartments and hookers, Chinese exchanges were faking volume, Cloud mining operators were selling fake contracts, McAfee was pumping shitcoins... To be honest, wealthy traders grouping up to induce panic and fake reversals doesn't surprise me at all.

[figmentofmyass]

And guess who was spreading the news. Coindesk, the most popular crypto FUD network. They weren't confirming the news before publishing back in 2014 and they aren't doing it now.

the news was legit. the story was covered by CNN a few days later. apparently merchants couldn't really do it until april 2015, though. and you also need to integrate with braintree (merchants can't just use the standard paypal interface). i'm guessing not many merchants actually accept BTC, but i'd be curious to see the numbers.