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Author Topic: Bear market? Will NEVER HAPPEN because of tether printing.  (Read 758 times)
Tyr808 (OP)
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June 27, 2018, 06:15:33 AM
 #21

Ok, prove me wrong.

I think the burden is on you to prove that "Tether printing" is important. Even the University of Texas report pointed to a very low level of statistical relevance. Tether issuance may not be random, but nobody has proven that it has a meaningful effect on price:
Quote
The authors suggest the cryptocurrency exchange Bitfinex buys bitcoin with another cryptocurrency -- tether -- to push up Bitcoin prices. How much? Four basis points per 100 bitcoin. With Bitcoin at $10,000, for example, that means Bitfinex spends $1 million to push the price up to $10,004.

Here I state that a bear market, which is a prolongued (3 years +) correction of crypto prices, will never happen reason being the occasional bursts of tether issuing which is something nobody can police.

Any number of exchanges/brokers could be engaging in price manipulation. I believe the Chinese exchanges (particularly Okcoin.cn, Okcoin.com futures and Huobi) heavily manipulated price (or attempted to) for years. This is true of regulated markets as well.

It doesn't need to be proven. It's just pure logic applied to economics. You have an injection of capital in the books and this inflates crypto prices.
Also as you mention most of the existing real capital in the books is due to wash trading so a real injection (such as tether) would have an even magnified amplitude of effect.

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June 27, 2018, 04:00:27 PM
 #22

I would love to agree to you, but I cannot.

Tether printing is just a meme, invented by conspiracy theorists on the level of r0ach.

It would be so good to be real. If it was, we would be at one million already, and able to eradicate poverty from Earth.

Unfortunatelly, it is not. Tether printing is just material for FUD, to drive the price down.

What strikes me in this case is the hipocrisy: everybody FUD over tether printing, but nobody FUD over fiat printing. If people where to FUD over fiat printing, in the same way they FUD over tether printing, bitcoin would have a higher price now.

About bear markets: 2013-2015 was a bear market, and didnt last 3 years. Bitcoin moves faster than the stock market, just do some research.



Lol now tether is a conspiracy.

It's just what it is, a lot of people are going to think forever that Tether doesn't have 1:1 resources at all times, and at least ins ome periods in time they are printing these Tether tokens without having the actual US dollar reserves.

If the process was transparent and the bank accounts were publicly auditable it would be less of an uncertainty but then again, providing such a service it's very difficult and you are pretty much forced to use off-shore accounts in private banking, it's just never going to be solved unless it gets audited by a bunch of different parties.
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June 27, 2018, 08:55:02 PM
 #23

I think the burden is on you to prove that "Tether printing" is important. Even the University of Texas report pointed to a very low level of statistical relevance. Tether issuance may not be random, but nobody has proven that it has a meaningful effect on price:
Quote
The authors suggest the cryptocurrency exchange Bitfinex buys bitcoin with another cryptocurrency -- tether -- to push up Bitcoin prices. How much? Four basis points per 100 bitcoin. With Bitcoin at $10,000, for example, that means Bitfinex spends $1 million to push the price up to $10,004.

It doesn't need to be proven. It's just pure logic applied to economics. You have an injection of capital in the books and this inflates crypto prices.
Also as you mention most of the existing real capital in the books is due to wash trading so a real injection (such as tether) would have an even magnified amplitude of effect.

Did you read the link above? "Tether injections" are characterized by the opposite of a "magnified amplitude of effect."

Yes, it's purely logical that (all else equal) an injection of capital into static supply causes price to increase. But that's no different than buyers depositing to Bitstamp or Coinbase......or Tether. I see no indication that Tether issuance is significant in any way. They are only barely noticeable from a statistical standpoint. I also see no proof they are illegitimate (not backed by real USD) or manipulative.

Your claim looks weak when it's pointed out how small of an effect Tether has. Even if they were trying to prop the market up, they are only a tiny drop in the bucket:
Quote
Four basis points per 100 bitcoin.

If the process was transparent and the bank accounts were publicly auditable it would be less of an uncertainty but then again, providing such a service it's very difficult and you are pretty much forced to use off-shore accounts in private banking, it's just never going to be solved unless it gets audited by a bunch of different parties.

I mean, it's not like we get to see an audit of Coinbase's bank accounts either. They get their share of people shouting "insolvency" too. Wink

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June 27, 2018, 09:29:58 PM
 #24

Aren't we already in a bear market, though? You're saying that 6 months is not enough time to consider this to be a bear market, but I think it is enough time. There is no prospect of seeing a recovery or a sudden shift in the market sentiment any time soon, I don't think.

If Tether is running fractional reserve (which is possible), then sooner or later it'll implode as BillyBobZorton said, and lose its value on the open market and implode.

I don't get why because of Tether, bitcoin can't have a bear market. By your logic, the crash from $20k to $6k should have never happened because Tether dollars were being printed all the time to keep prices high? Perhaps I just don't understand what your point is.
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June 28, 2018, 01:05:40 AM
 #25

Ok, prove me wrong.


You must understand that the demand in USDT is going up when the price of bitcoin is falling down. That makes the issuer need to issue more USDT to maintain the peg to $1 = 1 USDT.

In any case, USDT printing is not because someone is preparing to pump like what you presumed.

Not sure what you mean.. more or less demand, that's still liquidity which is eventually gonna be pumping up crypto prices.

Agreed. But it must also be understood why more Tether was issued. It was not for the intention of pumping bitcoin or Ethereum, but to maintain the $1 = 1 USDT peg.

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June 28, 2018, 02:03:00 AM
Last edit: June 28, 2018, 02:17:58 AM by fabiorem
 #26

Lol now tether is a conspiracy.


Now? It always was.

But the State printing fiat money (which is backed by nothing) and inflating the price of everything was never a conspiracy. Its pretty real, and nobody complains about it.

Tyr808 (OP)
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June 28, 2018, 04:19:16 AM
 #27

Lol now tether is a conspiracy.


Now? It always was.

But the State printing fiat money (which is backed by nothing) and inflating the price of everything was never a conspiracy. Its pretty real, and nobody complains about it.



The state defends that right with violence and wars and might is right.

Anyway this thread isn't about politics or conspiracies, tether printing is very real and it is why there will be other bull runs which will push the price higher than the last one.

Tyr808 (OP)
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June 28, 2018, 04:23:22 AM
 #28

Ok, prove me wrong.


You must understand that the demand in USDT is going up when the price of bitcoin is falling down. That makes the issuer need to issue more USDT to maintain the peg to $1 = 1 USDT.

In any case, USDT printing is not because someone is preparing to pump like what you presumed.

Not sure what you mean.. more or less demand, that's still liquidity which is eventually gonna be pumping up crypto prices.

Agreed. But it must also be understood why more Tether was issued. It was not for the intention of pumping bitcoin or Ethereum, but to maintain the $1 = 1 USDT peg.

Why you believe the reason behind the printing is important?
To me, the only relevant dynamic to state that there will be other bull runs, is knowing that new liquidity will be injected.

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June 28, 2018, 05:22:41 AM
 #29

just calm it will happen that you need just be more patient because the patience you have it will produce very good result for you, do not easy to panic one day bitcoin price will go back up again.

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June 29, 2018, 01:06:49 AM
 #30

Ok, prove me wrong.


You must understand that the demand in USDT is going up when the price of bitcoin is falling down. That makes the issuer need to issue more USDT to maintain the peg to $1 = 1 USDT.

In any case, USDT printing is not because someone is preparing to pump like what you presumed.

Not sure what you mean.. more or less demand, that's still liquidity which is eventually gonna be pumping up crypto prices.

Agreed. But it must also be understood why more Tether was issued. It was not for the intention of pumping bitcoin or Ethereum, but to maintain the $1 = 1 USDT peg.

Why you believe the reason behind the printing is important?
To me, the only relevant dynamic to state that there will be other bull runs, is knowing that new liquidity will be injected.

Knowing the reason behind it is important because the uninformed people in the cryptospace might see this as a sign to start hyping themselves into buying bitcoin. To prove that point, look at the price of bitcoin when the thread started and compare it to the price today. If they started buying because they thought it was good news, then they are losing money.

We might be entering a longterm bear market. Saying it will never happen is foolish.

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Tyr808 (OP)
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June 29, 2018, 03:59:53 AM
 #31

I disagree. You focus on BS factors such as market sentiment.
I focus on the one and only unsindacable fundamental factor: liquidity.

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June 29, 2018, 04:11:13 AM
 #32

Tether printing will always be there, regardless bulls/bear imo
However the market goes on a bear mode is expected due to the huge rally in the past within a short period of time frame

The bearish movement is kinda slow compare to the past year bullish rally
Tyr808 (OP)
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June 29, 2018, 04:42:44 AM
 #33

Tether printing will always be there

Exactly, and this why there's gonna be a continuous compounding bullish pressure.

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June 29, 2018, 12:06:49 PM
 #34

just calm the bitcoin can again experience bear market when there is good news that could trigger the increase of bitcoin price because for now bitcoin price is very difficult to ride if there is no good news available.

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June 30, 2018, 01:12:14 AM
 #35

I disagree. You focus on BS factors such as market sentiment.
I focus on the one and only unsindacable fundamental factor: liquidity.

Liquidity does not stop a bear market. It only makes it easier for everyone to sell their cryptocoins in a fairer price than if the market was illiquid. Try looking at Aeon's liquidity and compare to something like Ethereum. Ethereum is very liquid, Aeon is not but both of them will never escape the bear market.

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June 30, 2018, 10:02:37 AM
 #36

Tether printing will always be there

Exactly, and this why there's gonna be a continuous compounding bullish pressure.

You've to tell us why apart from 'injecting liquidity' which has happened when the price was collapsing too.

By far the biggest threat to Tether is regulators going after them. That's looking borderline inevitable as the regulatory sphincter tightens. And no exchange will resist the order to delist it.
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July 01, 2018, 12:48:24 AM
 #37

@gentlemand. The injection of liquidity was caused by the increase on the demand in USDT when bitcoin was collapsing, not for the intention of pumping bitcoin. Bitfinex needed to or the $1 = 1 USDT peg could not be maintained.

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July 01, 2018, 01:57:09 PM
 #38

Well I don;t know about you but the market we are in currently seems pretty bearish to me. I don''t know what you call half a year down movement from ATH.
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July 03, 2018, 02:48:49 PM
 #39

If tether explodes btc will only go up as people exit from tether (if they get the chance)
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July 03, 2018, 03:18:01 PM
 #40

6 months is an eternity in this space, it cannot be compared to traditional markets. Sometimes the premises I see in these arguments make my head hurt when they don't even get pointed out as being incorrect.

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