Help with research on bitcointalk community

[eaman]

Hello,

I am a researcher at MIT studying the online crypto community. It would be of great help to my research if any of you could share some of your thoughts on bitcointalk discussions.
My research questions revolve around understanding the link between quality and success of new altcoins and how they are discussed on bitcointalk. I am curious to know your thoughts on this topic, in particular related to the following questions:

1- If you were to predict the eventual success of a new altcoin, would the discussion patterns in its announcement page provide any meaningful signal? If yes, how so?

2- What are good marketing strategies for new altcoins on bitcointalk?

3- Have you noticed any difference in discussion between members who have been on bitcointalk for many years versus just a few weeks? Or communities that focus on technological innovation versus those who only care about identifying a good investment?

4- What about discussion that involves a small number of very active users versus those that involve small contributions from many users?

5- Is there any specific patterns in discussions that are likely to be related to fraudulent coins or pump and dump schemes?

If you are interested, I can share my findings so far over direct messages. BTW, you don’t have answer all or any of these questions, any information relevant to the link between coin quality and its online discussion would be helpful.
Thanks in advance for your help.

[lakimens]

1. It would provide some insight, although not a lot, you can rate how good the team is from there.
2. Signature is by far the best strategy in my opinion.
3. Yes, newer members just say "woooow, Ripple $100 next year", while experienced members tell them that's not possible.
4. Discussions that include a small number of active and experienced users are the best ones.
5. Yes, there are discussions of pump groups, ICO's telling you to invest and they'll x3 your money...

[lizardbtc]

1- If you were to predict the eventual success of a new altcoin, would the discussion patterns in its announcement page provide any meaningful signal? If yes, how so?

2- What are good marketing strategies for new altcoins on bitcointalk?

3- Have you noticed any difference in discussion between members who have been on bitcointalk for many years versus just a few weeks? Or communities that focus on technological innovation versus those who only care about identifying a good investment?

4- What about discussion that involves a small number of very active users versus those that involve small contributions from many users?

5- Is there any specific patterns in discussions that are likely to be related to fraudulent coins or pump and dump schemes?

1. It could but I can't guarantee this nor I will advise you to follow this as the best indicator. Here is the thing some board out there are buying people to write comments and thus thing such as this can be easily manipulated. Of course that when price raises for particular crypto that you can see more talk in the ANN theard.

2. ANN theard of course maybe bounty of some sort to distribute the coins to people by promoting it. Altcoin needs to have something advanced, not just some simple basic thing like any other shitcoin out there.

3. Many new accounts can be made simply to spam but it doesn't always have to be this way. I've seen some low ranked members to have good knowledge about the subject of crypto and for their comments/posts to be really valuble. Just because somebody opened an account yesterday doesn't mean that he or she is totally new crypto at all.

4. Depends on what we are talking about really.

5. Of course there are patterns but I can not think of any atm, sometimes it is hard to notice or it get pumped totally in the different way.

[eaman]

3. Yes, newer members just say "woooow, Ripple $100 next year", while experienced members tell them that's not possible.

Sounds like more experienced members act as a reality check on expectation. But do they raise the visibility of the topic hence increasing the likelihood of a discussion about technical merits of the coin?

[eaman]

4. Discussions that include a small number of active and experienced users are the best ones.

I have actually noticed this in the data I have collected for coins that are just announced. But do you expect the same pattern to also hold for older coins?

[eaman]

1. It could but I can't guarantee this nor I will advise you to follow this as the best indicator. Here is the thing some board out there are buying people to write comments and thus thing such as this can be easily manipulated. Of course that when price raises for particular crypto that you can see more talk in the ANN theard.

When new users join an ANN thread after a price increase, some might be motivated by evaluating whether they can still make a profit. others might be interested in evaluating whether the coin has the technological merits. So my question is that do these different populations have a distinct way of discussion? maybe the topics they discuss? the language they use? their age? their exposure to the rest of bitcointalk community?

On a separate note, can you estimate what percentage of users on bitcointalk are actually active traders?

[GREENch]

1 No, I try to consider more than one source of information to make the analysis of the project more objective
2 Bounty campaign project should be supervised by a good Manager and a large pool on the bounty campaign
3 The difference is certainly visible. In fact, the forum is not a lot of people, whose opinion is worth listening to. I think, those who are here for more than a year, have their own list of top 10-100 useful posts, topics, etc.
4 -
5 If I did not like the project, for some reason, I do not follow it, and I can not say that there is used. If in any topic a person begins to advertise the Scam project, I ask him about the reasons for choosing this project. As a rule, there is no answer.

[eaman]

3 The difference is certainly visible. In fact, the forum is not a lot of people, whose opinion is worth listening to. I think, those who are here for more than a year, have their own list of top 10-100 useful posts, topics, etc.

In my data, I observe that older users don't participate in all announcement threads, they tend to be very selective in their contribution. Can you tell how they select and identify the thread to participate in?