IF MT GOX DIES THEN BITCOIN PROBABLY WILL TOO

[Nagle]

Regardless of whether gox's volume is decreasing, the bottom line is that bitcoin is always in need of new people getting into it. 

Exactly. This is a zero-sum game and needs a constant supply of new suckers.

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[nwbitcoin]

Gox has been dead to anyone with a brain since April 2013.

So true

Bitcoin would be far better off without MTGox

[DubFX]

Oh, so if bank gets robbed in USA for example, then the currency ($) collapses?
Interesting indeed...

[fonzie]

Oh, so if bank gets robbed in USA for example, then the currency ($) collapses?
Interesting indeed...

This is what nearly happened @the last finance crisis in the USA a few years ago, smartass.

[MatTheCat]

This is what nearly happened @the last finance crisis in the USA a few years ago, smartass.

A run on the bank is a totally different thing from a bank being robbed.

If there were 500 gold coins in a small town, and someone robbed 250 of them, and there was no way of getting anymore gold coins into that town. The purchasing power of each remaining gold coin would double. Similarly, if there were 500 gold coins in a small town, 250 stored in one goldsmith A's vault and the other 250 in Goldsmith B's, but Goldsmith A had issued 2500 paper certificates, only for a large holder of Goldsmith A paper certificates to turn up to Goldsmith A's premise and demand payment in 300 gold pieces only to be to be given 250 and/or told their was 'technical hitches' preventing the Goldsmith from paying out the gold, then the value of Goldsmith A's paper gold receipts would plummet, the value of the physical gold coins themselves would probably rise as the volume of gold coins (or their paper 'equivalents') would become more scarce.

MtGox have probably 'printed' BTC on some kind of fractional reserve system in order that they can game with other peoples money, only for everything to have gone tits up. Bitcoin exchanges don't work like the banking system in that they aren't all leveraged up to the eyeballs in counterparty risk with each other. If/when MtGox folds, and disappears with whole bunch of Gox coins and Gox bucks, their will actually be less Bitcoins in circulation than the market believed. The numerical effect of Gox going down in the way in which it looks like it will go down, would actually increase the value of Bitcoin, not decrease it. The psychological impact of the trust that Bitcoiners feel that they can place in the remaining exchanges however, is the real unpredictable X-factor here.

It is now a widely accepted and "confirmed" fact it is MtGox that caused the recent Bitcoin price slide but I say this notion is a big a pile of horseshit as the 'Bitcoin hits $1000 on Zynga news' back in early January. If it were the case that MtGox caused the sharp correction, why then did all the major take down action, the lowest low, and the lionshare of volume occur on Bitstamp?

[galbros]

It depends on how GOX dies that matters how much it effects bitcoin.

If it slowly dies, as it has been doing, then no harm, people shift over to other exchanges.

If it dies in a massive fraud, e.g. "Uh, sorry folks, all your coins are gone." a la the inputs.io debacle then yes, big problem.

[ozkraut]

This is what nearly happened @the last finance crisis in the USA a few years ago, smartass.

A run on the bank is a totally different thing from a bank being robbed.

If there were 500 gold coins in a small town, and someone robbed 250 of them, and there was no way of getting anymore gold coins into that town. The purchasing power of each remaining gold coin would double. Similarly, if there were 500 gold coins in a small town, 250 stored in one goldsmith A's vault and the other 250 in Goldsmith B's, but Goldsmith A had issued 2500 paper certificates, only for a large holder of Goldsmith A paper certificates to turn up to Goldsmith A's premise and demand payment in 300 gold pieces only to be to be given 250 and/or told their was 'technical hitches' preventing the Goldsmith from paying out the gold, then the value of Goldsmith A's paper gold receipts would plummet, the value of the physical gold coins themselves would probably rise as the volume of gold coins (or their paper 'equivalents') would become more scarce.

MtGox have probably 'printed' BTC on some kind of fractional reserve system in order that they can game with other peoples money, only for everything to have gone tits up. Bitcoin exchanges don't work like the banking system in that they aren't all leveraged up to the eyeballs in counterparty risk with each other. If/when MtGox folds, and disappears with whole bunch of Gox coins and Gox bucks, their will actually be less Bitcoins in circulation than the market believed. The numerical effect of Gox going down in the way in which it looks like it will go down, would actually increase the value of Bitcoin, not decrease it. The psychological impact of the trust that Bitcoiners feel that they can place in the remaining exchanges however, is the real unpredictable X-factor here.

It is now a widely accepted and "confirmed" fact it is MtGox that caused the recent Bitcoin price slide but I say this notion is a big a pile of horseshit as the 'Bitcoin hits $1000 on Zynga news' back in early January. If it were the case that MtGox caused the sharp correction, why then did all the major take down action, the lowest low, and the lionshare of volume occur on Bitstamp?

Less in circulation than people have thought ? Isn't it crystal clear how many coins were minted eg block time / reward / halving vs current block I hope so, truly do else.....

Yes some are lost. But if Mt Gox went gambling any  'Fiat' btc created via 'creative' accounting is not going to disappear from the real circulation. They were never there in the first place. Now if all those that, presumably, but hopefully not lost their coins in the yet to be seen debacle, replenish their lost coins by buying from others: then yep I can see the price go up.

That's how I understand the controlled supply of BTC to work or am I on the wrong train

[smoothie]

LOL @ OP: "If Bank of America Dies then the Dollar will too."

Failed logic.

[disclaimer201]

LOL @ OP: "If Bank of America Dies then the Dollar will too."

Failed logic.

+1

[leannemckim46]

Who cares about MtGox, bitcoin price might crash to like 400-500 but it will go back to 700-800 range in no time..

[MatTheCat]

Less in circulation than people have thought ? Isn't it crystal clear how many coins were minted eg block time / reward / halving vs current block I hope so, truly do else.....

Yes some are lost. But if Mt Gox went gambling any  'Fiat' btc created via 'creative' accounting is not going to disappear from the real circulation. They were never there in the first place. Now if all those that, presumably, but hopefully not lost their coins in the yet to be seen debacle, replenish their lost coins by buying from others: then yep I can see the price go up.

That's how I understand the controlled supply of BTC to work or am I on the wrong train

Say Gox have 50'000 more BTC registered with customer accounts than they actually have in their wallets. Then that is 50'000 less Bitcoins in the eco-system than the market thought. Providing that there is no inter-exchange counter-party risk here which I assume that their isn't, then this is not a run on the bank situation, but a robbery. Not so good for those who got robbed, but increases value of those who didn't get robbed.

The psychological impacts of this are another matter. I am with Bitstamp and have absolutely no fears about having my USD there at this point in time. I also had funds with Bitfinex, an exchange that I did feel a bit uneasy about, so i pulled what I had out of there. 

[ozkraut]

Less in circulation than people have thought ? Isn't it crystal clear how many coins were minted eg block time / reward / halving vs current block I hope so, truly do else.....

Yes some are lost. But if Mt Gox went gambling any  'Fiat' btc created via 'creative' accounting is not going to disappear from the real circulation. They were never there in the first place. Now if all those that, presumably, but hopefully not lost their coins in the yet to be seen debacle, replenish their lost coins by buying from others: then yep I can see the price go up.

That's how I understand the controlled supply of BTC to work or am I on the wrong train

Say Gox have 50'000 more BTC registered with customer accounts than they actually have in their wallets. Then that is 50'000 less Bitcoins in the eco-system than the market thought. Providing that there is no inter-exchange counter-party risk here which I assume that their isn't, then this is not a run on the bank situation, but a robbery. Not so good for those who got robbed, but increases value of those who didn't get robbed.

The psychological impacts of this are another matter. I am with Bitstamp and have absolutely no fears about having my USD there at this point in time. I also had funds with Bitfinex, an exchange that I did feel a bit uneasy about, so i pulled what I had out of there. 

yeah I'm with you. So we had (have???) some trading volume issues too eg if nobody noticed the fudged coins in the system the number of presumed 'lost' coins should go up ?