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Author Topic: Another Small Crash Ahead?  (Read 3048 times)
tacotime
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September 24, 2011, 06:59:58 PM
 #1

Reasoning:
- Low volumes
- Price stagnation
- Expected difficulty decrease in a couple of days
- Gold crash
- Global stock market crash
- Diminished interest as reported by google searches (which highly correlate with market price/momentum)



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S3052
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September 24, 2011, 08:09:51 PM
 #2

You are right, the only leading indicator for the overall bitcoin project are bitcoin prices , i.e. BTCUSD

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worldinacoin
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September 25, 2011, 12:26:22 PM
 #3

I do not see any correlation with Gold, I doubt that a small crash is ahead, the prices are actually on the low side even after the mini rally.
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September 26, 2011, 05:33:24 AM
 #4

World stock markets are in turmoil, commodity prices are plummeting, investors are running towards US dollars, dogs and cats are sleeping together.  Some people like to think bitcoin is isolated from the general fiat economy, but that's not the case.  High risk and highly speculative investments are the first to be sold off.  I wouldn't be surprised if we see new 6 month lows for bitcoins this week.

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bitcoinTrader
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September 26, 2011, 12:58:58 PM
 #5

The price has dipped below 5 now.
What next?

SlaveInDebt
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September 26, 2011, 01:04:53 PM
 #6

The price has dipped below 5 now.
What next?

Buy Huh

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Elwar
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September 26, 2011, 01:16:34 PM
 #7

Google Trends is an overall lagging indicator of price, not a leading indicator. Over the history of Google Trends for "bitcoin" the correlation peak lags the daily high by about three days...

Bitcoin is more than just a currency.

It is a Google trends predictor!

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speeder
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September 26, 2011, 01:20:31 PM
 #8

Now I get the "manipulator"

He is just one "normal" investor that has lots of investments, and is actually trying to stabilize bitcoin, and failing that, sell his bitcoins at a controlled price.


Since that people is actually rare in bitcoin, with most of the investments coming from small investors, I think we should just take the chance to buy cheap as he (or they) sell.

322i0n
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September 26, 2011, 01:30:35 PM
 #9

The price has dipped below 5 now.
What next?
Sell  Huh

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speeder
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September 26, 2011, 01:35:14 PM
 #10

The price has dipped below 5 now.
What next?
Sell  Huh

Don't do that.

The price dipped because some few people with lots of bitcoin want to sell the coins (probably they need cash... they also probably are among those that caused the gold, silver, stock and forex dips these weeks)

Instead of selling, just buy what those big guys are selling, the rally pressure still exists, and those that buy will profit from the desperation of those big investors that need cash.

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September 26, 2011, 02:05:44 PM
 #11

good point! i wonder how many people are selling btc to get there hands on silver/ gold during the metals dip.

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Cluster2k
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September 26, 2011, 02:11:58 PM
 #12

Things were getting boring on MtGox over the weekend.  Looks like someone decided to spice things up a bit.  I'm not surprised at all we're below $5 now.  Totally predictable.

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wobber
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September 26, 2011, 02:19:58 PM
 #13

And what do you predict nex?

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speeder
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September 26, 2011, 02:22:33 PM
 #14

I predict I will lose more money on bitcoinica

Cluster2k
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September 26, 2011, 02:24:09 PM
 #15

And what do you predict nex?

Back to $5.40 - $5.60 range by week's end.  The general trend is still down but it's in no one's interest to see bitcoin crash.  Traders picking off easy profits from the swings don't want to see the price stagnate.  

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wobber
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September 26, 2011, 02:28:38 PM
 #16

I believe that the price will go near the 4.5 support line. But never breaking it.

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September 26, 2011, 03:10:09 PM
 #17

The price has dipped below 5 now.
What next?

Time to readjust arbitrary long-term trendlines downwards, and come out with new useless projections?

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September 26, 2011, 03:15:55 PM
 #18

I agree that the drop was very predictable. I mentioned one scenario weeks back that basically means the price will stay within the $4-$6 range for a relatively long time, at least in Bitcoin time.

Where it goes from that range is not sure, but I think that will be very meaningful. Basically it's the market deciding if they think Bitcoin has a bright future or a dim one. A spike below $4 wouldn't signal doom for me yet, but a stable price below $4 would certainly be a bad sign.

Now it's just wait and see.

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tacotime
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September 26, 2011, 03:33:47 PM
 #19

Google Trends is an overall lagging indicator of price, not a leading indicator. Over the history of Google Trends for "bitcoin" the correlation peak lags the daily high by about three days...

Bitcoin is more than just a currency.

It is a Google trends predictor!

 Grin

I would be surprised if we don't see a further drop in the next few days due to the difficulty decrease.

Gold has no immediate correlation with bitcoin price, but does imply consumers have lost interest in expensive rare commodities that could serve as alternative currencies in times of crisis.  The market for bitcoin is somewhat similar.  Right now, gold is taking its predicted tumble and it appears consumers may be trying to jump onto cheap investments in equities instead.

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tacotime
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September 26, 2011, 04:01:07 PM
 #20

I believe that the price will go near the 4.5 support line. But never breaking it.

Disagree because the cost to produce is going down because of the difficulty change...  Unless the difficulty/hash rate stabilizes or increases we will see a fall in the price to ever successive new lows.

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