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Author Topic: Calling bottom in September 2018  (Read 563 times)
Febo
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June 29, 2018, 12:21:26 PM
 #1

I have no ideas what price will be. I dont really care much about that but while comparing last bitcoin cycle with this cycle (at least what we saw so far) I do believe bottom will happen in upcoming September.

This is start of last Bitcoin cycle in 2014                                                                                                                                         and this is what we have so far in this cycle:



You can notice that this cycle is a bit faster. Approximately by 40%.  Placing this factor to the other data of previous bitcoin cycle I got to month of current cycle bottom and that will happen in September.  Recovery should start in April 2019. 

So basically we will have almost a year of cheap Bitcoins. Cheapest you will ever get. Do not blew this lifetime chance. It is there for whole year.


And I got this two charts here: https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/8up21s/my_prediction_take_it_or_leave_it_trading_view/

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June 30, 2018, 01:14:55 AM
 #2

Well, let's hope you are right. I think that with next big pump BTC can reach even $100k.
Now, our job is to wait carefully and to try to collect as many BTC as we can until that pump starts. Afterwards, we are going to moon   Cool
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June 30, 2018, 03:51:26 AM
 #3

Thanks for the analysis @Febo, it really looks like this bear market will still linger up to the end of the year so we better prepare for the worst. I already told myself that not to expect something big this year, as we all know that the confidence or interest of investors has change as well. So we should take this opportunity to get more bitcoins as we can because its cheap and all we do is hold and wait for that massive bull run that everyone is waiting to happen.

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June 30, 2018, 04:17:17 AM
 #4

you know what, if you compare it with 2013-2014 enough times it may come true. that is how speculation sometimes work. it doesn't have to be true! people have to believe in it for it to come true. so if enough traders start to  believe that this trend is the same as 2014 then we will see it repeated.
it is like halving. there are good reasons for the price rise after the halving but not before. but as we can see price rises before it because people believe in certain trends.

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June 30, 2018, 10:15:01 AM
 #5

you know what, if you compare it with 2013-2014 enough times it may come true. that is how speculation sometimes work. it doesn't have to be true! people have to believe in it for it to come true. so if enough traders start to  believe that this trend is the same as 2014 then we will see it repeated.
it is like halving. there are good reasons for the price rise after the halving but not before. but as we can see price rises before it because people believe in certain trends.

Last cycle halving happened 9 months before price reach old ATH so $1200. This time events should happen at about same time.  Since this is 3rd halving now people are sure that is expected and will trigger price increase earlier.  So yes, Bitcoin will get to old ATH so $20000 on Jully 2020

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June 30, 2018, 10:23:37 AM
 #6

Since this is 3rd halving now people are sure that is expected and will trigger price increase earlier.  So yes, Bitcoin will get to old ATH so $20000 on Jully 2020

The block halving is just one aspect. We have LN on top of that, and the most important short term development will be the potential ETF approval this year or next year.

If this ETF gets approved, then prepare for one heck of a bull run. The main difference is that with the upcoming ETF retail traders are more or less excluded due to the very steep entry point of 25BTC per share. What makes this a bullish event is that this ETF will be backed with actual coin supply. With futures you buy an empty non existing product, with this ETF there is underlying value of the asset itself. Coins are being taken out of circulation, and that's all that matters.

We need more use cases where coins are being taken out of circulation. This ETF is one and LN will be one.

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June 30, 2018, 11:24:05 AM
 #7

my opinion after reading the above graph feels there is a fear of the future of crypto especially bitcoin, but I am a little optimistic about the future when crypto has passed the regulations made by the government in every country, while for the price issue I think no matter the rise and fall of bitcoin price it ordinary all definitely experience it do not panic keep the spirit and success for us all
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June 30, 2018, 01:58:52 PM
 #8

my opinion after reading the above graph feels there is a fear of the future of crypto especially bitcoin, but I am a little optimistic about the future when crypto has passed the regulations made by the government in every country, while for the price issue I think no matter the rise and fall of bitcoin price it ordinary all definitely experience it do not panic keep the spirit and success for us all

My call is quite optimistic. It predict this cycle will happen 40% faster then last one, so also recovery to happen 40% faster. What if reality is that this cycle will be 40% slower than the last one? Now that would be pessimistic since bottom would happen in June 2019 and first signs of recovery in August 2020. Man that would be so depressing.




Since this is 3rd halving now people are sure that is expected and will trigger price increase earlier.  So yes, Bitcoin will get to old ATH so $20000 on Jully 2020

The block halving is just one aspect. We have LN on top of that, and the most important short term development will be the potential ETF approval this year or next year.

If this ETF gets approved, then prepare for one heck of a bull run. The main difference is that with the upcoming ETF retail traders are more or less excluded due to the very steep entry point of 25BTC per share. What makes this a bullish event is that this ETF will be backed with actual coin supply. With futures you buy an empty non existing product, with this ETF there is underlying value of the asset itself. Coins are being taken out of circulation, and that's all that matters.

We need more use cases where coins are being taken out of circulation. This ETF is one and LN will be one.

I had seen a lots of good news happening at end of 2014 and in beginning of  2015 and after each good news price of Bitcoin went down. I do believe this part of cycle is still ahead of us.

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June 30, 2018, 03:38:50 PM
Merited by 1Referee (1)
 #9

Since this is 3rd halving now people are sure that is expected and will trigger price increase earlier.  So yes, Bitcoin will get to old ATH so $20000 on Jully 2020

The block halving is just one aspect. We have LN on top of that, and the most important short term development will be the potential ETF approval this year or next year.

If this ETF gets approved, then prepare for one heck of a bull run. The main difference is that with the upcoming ETF retail traders are more or less excluded due to the very steep entry point of 25BTC per share. What makes this a bullish event is that this ETF will be backed with actual coin supply. With futures you buy an empty non existing product, with this ETF there is underlying value of the asset itself. Coins are being taken out of circulation, and that's all that matters.

We need more use cases where coins are being taken out of circulation. This ETF is one and LN will be one.

Yeah. And it has been as aspect that's been considered even as early as middle of last year, which leads me to believe much of this was priced into the December rally (and perhaps forgotten, and will play a considerable part in pushing another rally leading up to it).

But like you, I tend to believe that it's the strengthening of what already makes Bitcoin so valuable that will eventually add on to its price: LN is definitely one of those. Yes, as a scaling solution (albeit temporary one in the span of years) but also an indication that the network continues to develop as needed, in the same careful, cautious approach that has built Bitcoin's reputation as mature and robust.

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June 30, 2018, 03:53:28 PM
 #10

I had seen a lots of good news happening at end of 2014 and in beginning of  2015 and after each good news price of Bitcoin went down.
If it isn't straight manipulation, it's called buy the rumor sell the news. In most cases the price increases in advance of what's going to happen. In case we know that certain things are about to happen, we can position ourselves in the market properly based on that. Last year we have had one major opportunity to do so, and this year with the consensus event. Trading against the sentiment has always been the most profitable exercise in a retail driven market.

But like you, I tend to believe that it's the strengthening of what already makes Bitcoin so valuable that will eventually add on to its price: LN is definitely one of those. Yes, as a scaling solution (albeit temporary one in the span of years) but also an indication that the network continues to develop as needed, in the same careful, cautious approach that has built Bitcoin's reputation as mature and robust.
I strongly believe LN to be Bitcoin's killer application. Great thing with LN is that even on that second layer you can run a third and fourth layer, which is insanely bullish. Scaling will be taken care of, people will be rewarded for providing liquidity to LN, everyone will be happy. We need to get rid of the speculative nonsense and make people actually need coins for other purposes.

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June 30, 2018, 04:10:08 PM
 #11

Thats a good analysis, but you are supposing a slow recovery, like the one in 2015. However, back at the day, bitcoin did not have so many use cases as today. I think the use cases might lead to a faster recovery.
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July 01, 2018, 06:44:33 PM
 #12

my opinion after reading the above graph feels there is a fear of the future of crypto especially bitcoin, but I am a little optimistic about the future when crypto has passed the regulations made by the government in every country, while for the price issue I think no matter the rise and fall of bitcoin price it ordinary all definitely experience it do not panic keep the spirit and success for us all

My call is quite optimistic. It predict this cycle will happen 40% faster then last one, so also recovery to happen 40% faster. What if reality is that this cycle will be 40% slower than the last one? Now that would be pessimistic since bottom would happen in June 2019 and first signs of recovery in August 2020. Man that would be so depressing.




Since this is 3rd halving now people are sure that is expected and will trigger price increase earlier.  So yes, Bitcoin will get to old ATH so $20000 on Jully 2020

The block halving is just one aspect. We have LN on top of that, and the most important short term development will be the potential ETF approval this year or next year.

If this ETF gets approved, then prepare for one heck of a bull run. The main difference is that with the upcoming ETF retail traders are more or less excluded due to the very steep entry point of 25BTC per share. What makes this a bullish event is that this ETF will be backed with actual coin supply. With futures you buy an empty non existing product, with this ETF there is underlying value of the asset itself. Coins are being taken out of circulation, and that's all that matters.

We need more use cases where coins are being taken out of circulation. This ETF is one and LN will be one.

I had seen a lots of good news happening at end of 2014 and in beginning of  2015 and after each good news price of Bitcoin went down. I do believe this part of cycle is still ahead of us.
Yes that can be right because in current time the bitcoin users are are much more as compare it to previous time and still people are entering in bitcoin world, therefore i also think that we will see a rapid recovery in bitcoin price. People just need some confident and no doubt that they will start investing their money in bitcoin which will surely boost bitcoin price.

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July 01, 2018, 07:25:04 PM
 #13

The block halving is just one aspect. We have LN on top of that, and the most important short term development will be the potential ETF approval this year or next year.

The halving is a very important supply event though, and what really matters is supply/demand. Even though everyone knows it's coming (and so people think it's priced in), I think history has shown it has a strong psychological effect.

I don't get too caught up on fundamentals anyway, because it's too hard to gauge their effects on the market (beyond "strong fundamentals, long term bullish").

If this ETF gets approved, then prepare for one heck of a bull run. The main difference is that with the upcoming ETF retail traders are more or less excluded due to the very steep entry point of 25BTC per share. What makes this a bullish event is that this ETF will be backed with actual coin supply. With futures you buy an empty non existing product, with this ETF there is underlying value of the asset itself. Coins are being taken out of circulation, and that's all that matters.

We need more use cases where coins are being taken out of circulation. This ETF is one and LN will be one.

You never know. It depends on the market cycle. If an ETF is approved well into a bull run, it could just be time for a blow-off top (like with the CME futures listing). ETFs can also be shorted, and I imagine inverse ETFs won't be far behind either.

Also, it's my understanding that the coins backing the Winklevoss Trust are already removed from supply (they already own them). Not totally sure about SolidX or others, but I wouldn't assume that upon approval, hundreds of thousands of BTC need to be immediately bought to back the ETF.

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July 01, 2018, 09:40:26 PM
 #14

Quote
You can notice that this cycle is a bit faster. Approximately by 40%.
I agree. We already had 3 "hills and valleys" after ATH so we are in October 2014. So 10 months on left chart is 6.5 months on right chart. But I don't agree with 'bottom in September 2018'.
Bottom was in January 2015, so 13 months from ATH.
14*0.6 = 7.8
So bottom should be 8 months from ATH in December 2017. So I'm calling bottom in August and start of recovery to another ATH in February 2019 and ATH in October 2019.




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July 01, 2018, 10:34:34 PM
 #15

I have no ideas what price will be. I dont really care much about that but while comparing last bitcoin cycle with this cycle (at least what we saw so far) I do believe bottom will happen in upcoming September.

This is start of last Bitcoin cycle in 2014                                                                                                                                         and this is what we have so far in this cycle:



You can notice that this cycle is a bit faster. Approximately by 40%.  Placing this factor to the other data of previous bitcoin cycle I got to month of current cycle bottom and that will happen in September.  Recovery should start in April 2019. 

So basically we will have almost a year of cheap Bitcoins. Cheapest you will ever get. Do not blew this lifetime chance. It is there for whole year.


And I got this two charts here: https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/8up21s/my_prediction_take_it_or_leave_it_trading_view/
I hope $5,800 is the last bottom that i was going to see this year, i don't know what to do with another bottom coming this year. It's too deep to compare the previous price of bitcoin if it's going to happen. I hope they weren't right of that speculation because i can't take to wait for more than 9 months since bitcoin was down.

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July 02, 2018, 12:26:54 PM
 #16

I hope $5,800 is the last bottom that i was going to see this year, i don't know what to do with another bottom coming this year. It's too deep to compare the previous price of bitcoin if it's going to happen. I hope they weren't right of that speculation because i can't take to wait for more than 9 months since bitcoin was down.

I am pretty sure we will see Bitcoin lower maybe even way lower. But this gives you chance of a lifetime to buy some more Bitcoins. And this chance will be half year to year long so even if you dont have founds for it you can earn them somehow.  This is great chance everyone have and is pretty clear.

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July 05, 2018, 11:07:52 AM
 #17

I have no ideas what price will be. I dont really care much about that but while comparing last bitcoin cycle with this cycle (at least what we saw so far) I do believe bottom will happen in upcoming September.

This is start of last Bitcoin cycle in 2014                                                                                                                                         and this is what we have so far in this cycle:



You can notice that this cycle is a bit faster. Approximately by 40%.  Placing this factor to the other data of previous bitcoin cycle I got to month of current cycle bottom and that will happen in September.  Recovery should start in April 2019. 

So basically we will have almost a year of cheap Bitcoins. Cheapest you will ever get. Do not blew this lifetime chance. It is there for whole year.


And I got this two charts here: https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/8up21s/my_prediction_take_it_or_leave_it_trading_view/
Its seriously funny to compare 2013 to 2018. Back than there was dozens of us DOZENS I say, whereas in 2018 there are millions of people not only buying and selling crypto but also started to use it as well. There is not a single chance it will resemble it on a long enough time period.

This has been said multiple times before but you had to adjust the pace by %40 just so it can even resemble 2013. The price will do what it does without looking at the months of the year.

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July 05, 2018, 11:30:42 AM
 #18

All of your speculation are good but I really think it can not be accurate because we might have a different outcome when it comes to what may happen in the end of this year, I can clearly see the bottom back then to be at $7000 mark but on the recent hacking news it all came in a collapse that we can sure see another Bull run but Maybe? I can be wrong even if you see a speculation regarding the recent movements there still a chance to have a different outcome.

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July 05, 2018, 11:47:53 AM
 #19

hopefully what you say is true and will be true, and I will be patient to wait for the next pump at the end of the year. will reach $30k in the next pump  Wink

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July 05, 2018, 11:59:58 AM
 #20

I don't think that "calling bottom" is the right word to use as we still don't know if it will go down at this point. It may just be a reversal from its consolidation now. So maybe calling September as a break out point might be a more appropriate term. Because as of right now it is showing signs of bullishness as it has rallied to more than 700$ in just a little over a week. Yes a lot of people are calling this one last pump before the "big drop" but unless it happens we still need to keep our eyes open for the best plan.

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