CME Futures Expiration Suppressing Market's Growth? Your Thought!

[nl247]

I know a lot of us already had our reservations since the day the launch of Bitcoin futures trading was announced. I was part of those who believed as a result of this, the market will be subjected to huge manipulations. Here is another last day of futures trading for the month of June and according to the news quoted below, it is the same pattern over again.

Although, at some point, I always want to believe that the market was set for a huge decline after last year's market behaviour, however, a mention of Uranium future trading with similar behaviour when it was launched caught my attention. Do you really think we are in for a long term trend of manipulations or this is just an excuse? If the market is really being manipulated as a result of future trading, how can this be contained?

Here is the article quoted below for your reading pleasure!

Bitcoin fell below $6,000 for the second time in a week Friday, June 29, the day CME Group’s Bitcoin futures end their last day of trading for the month.

Data from Cointelegraph’s price index and Coin360.io show Bitcoin continuing a trend of declines in the run-up to futures expiration dates.

At press time Friday, BTC/USD is trading around $5,850, down 4.4 percent on the day, while signalling monthly losses of over 20 percent.

Major altcoins had followed suit, Ethereum (ETH) down 5.6 percent to $412 and Ripple (XRP) 6.5 percent to just under $0.43 per coin.

Together with a brief period in early February when BTC’s price neared $6K, this week’s sub-$6,000 Bitcoin prices – the last one before today occuring Sunday, June 24 – mark the third occasion that the price barrier has been breached in 2018.

The effect of futures trading periods on Bitcoin has meanwhile become an increasingly convincing metric for measuring market sentiment.

Earlier this month, Fundstrat Global Advisors’ Tom Lee, known for his bullish stance on Bitcoin’s future price, argued that similar deadlines for CBOE’s futures had suppressed price growth.

In May, the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco released an Economic Letter suggesting that Bitcoin’s decline since its $20,000 peak in December was the result of the launch of Bitcoin futures trading.

Social media commentators identified further trends, suspecting banks’ involvement in futures as the main culprit behind Bitcoin’s failure to grow higher. CME trading Uranium futures produced similar behavior in the sector, one Twitter user noted.

More broadly, however, sources remain at odds over Bitcoin prices. Research data published this week dispelled concerns markets were subject to manipulation, instead concluding investors were buying and sitting on their coins.

Edited:

You guys should read these two articles shared by fabiorem (that actually gave me like a bigger picture)

https://steemit.com/bitcoin/@supercrypto1/4th-dimension-bitcoin-manipulation-cartel-price-suppression-is-the-goal

https://blog.goodaudience.com/bitcoin-futures-and-the-ghost-of-gold-81418864c961

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[fabiorem]

Yes, but I hit this key too much already.

I will leave only these two links:

https://steemit.com/bitcoin/@supercrypto1/4th-dimension-bitcoin-manipulation-cartel-price-suppression-is-the-goal

https://blog.goodaudience.com/bitcoin-futures-and-the-ghost-of-gold-81418864c961

They dont want to destroy bitcoin. They want to adopt it, but they want us out. To dominate the market, they need the supply, so they need to buy it cheap. Even governments wants it, as part of their treasures.

If you sell in panic, know that big money is taking your coins. Thats how they got rich in the first place: through patience.

[European Central Bank]

i've yet to see anyone give a convincing explanation as to why this would have an effect beyond psychology, but that's the most power of all anyway.

most people are always eager to find a higher authority to defer to, even though that's definitely not the point with bitcoin.

because of that futures can wield a totally unjustified amount of power simply because others believe they somehow know more and follow them. in reality they're more clueless but the reality doesn't matter.

[nl247]

Yes, but I hit this key too much already.

I will leave only these two links:

https://steemit.com/bitcoin/@supercrypto1/4th-dimension-bitcoin-manipulation-cartel-price-suppression-is-the-goal

https://blog.goodaudience.com/bitcoin-futures-and-the-ghost-of-gold-81418864c961

They dont want to destroy bitcoin. They want to adopt it, but they want us out. To dominate the market, they need the supply, so they need to buy it cheap. Even governments wants it, as part of their treasures.

If you sell in panic, know that big money is taking your coins. Thats how they got rich in the first place: through patience.

You really hit the nail on the head with that steemit article. Nice read and quite enlightening! I guess we have some serial killers on the lose then as I do not see this as a coincidence at all. Even those words from Leo Melamed alone before the future was launched (https://www.coindesk.com/cme-groups-leo-melamed-well-tame-bitcoin/) gave it all up and I believe the taming have started afterall. I hope you do not mind me sharing some images of your tweets below;

Those who are trying to figure out the essence of HODL or buying the dips, I hope they get it now!

[fabiorem]

You really hit the nail on the head with that steemit article.

Im not the author, but what he wrote I was already suspecting before, and had put some ideas here. People called a conspiracy theory, so I let it go.

[shulio]

If the Bitcoin graph follows the Uranium graph in the coming years, then Bitcoin is over. The price will get lower and lower and find a base at 100 dollars.

[BitcoinNewbie15]

If the Bitcoin graph follows the Uranium graph in the coming years, then Bitcoin is over. The price will get lower and lower and find a base at 100 dollars.

The current chart does resemble the uranium chart a bit, but that doesn't mean it will follow its path. I can't see demand for Bitcoin near completely disappearing within the next few years. If anything, demand will continue to increase. The uranium chart spanned over the course of almost 10 years too, the current Bitcoin price chart is just the last 7 months. That and it's just our human brains that make us see patterns/correlations when in reality there are none... That's likely what is going on here.

[nanasei]

Future trading has nothing to offer to what bitcoin is trading now. The futures indicates the speculations traders believes bitcoins will be trading in the coming days but not necessary reflecting on its actual price.

[STT]

Why should ordinary people care how high or low is the Bitcoin price.   Your average person wants to use a product not speculate in its price appreciation, Bitcoin is not an investment as its just a plain token with no yield or ongoing royalty or tie to a business.     If its proof of stake then sure theres a yield because its using holders wallet but its not the case with Bitcoin.

Speculative activities should not be considered normal or a primary driver of a product sucess or failure.   If the only concern to a product is the price then its already over, there has to be a utility given to holders and then we can speculate on that.

CME job is to formalise the price off the blockchain, the contracts they deal are not done with BTC directly even if delivery might occur on certain dates as described in a contract.    All CME does is competete with BTC exchanges for efficency of trade, depth of volume and also security.   CME is likely far more secure then having to risk a deposit on a centralised exchange which we all known has always been contrary to the true nature of BTC use.  CME might also be cheaper on large or frequent price exchanges, frequency trading even I dont know.   

CME is unlikely to blame for price supression or really have an interest in that effect.  The users of CME might, they might want to influence price in all sorts of ways I guess, happens to lots of markets.   But influence of a price requires a loose liquidity and lack of demand imo

[Pursuer]

maybe it is true but I also have yet to see a convincing explanation for it.

what I think is that this is exactly like Mt Gox situation. we are making it bigger than it is. the day the news about Mt Gox selling bitcoin and crashing market came out I said it is wrong and exaggeration. we finally found out a couple of weeks ago that I was right. Mt Gox was not even selling on exchanges and they were doing it in a way to not affect the price.

what I am trying to say is maybe there was some manipulation because of that the Futures expiring but the drop was mainly because of fear of manipulation and price drop.

[gentlemand]

I know CBOE is a fair bit, or considerably, smaller but have a look at these figures.



That's, er, not a great deal of people unless I'm missing something obvious.

[1Referee]

They dont want to destroy bitcoin. They want to adopt it, but they want us out. To dominate the market, they need the supply, so they need to buy it cheap. Even governments wants it, as part of their treasures.

If you sell in panic, know that big money is taking your coins. Thats how they got rich in the first place: through patience.

Well said.

I see around me how people focus on quick gains and not achieve anything other than a quick loss of funds due to their greed. I have always believed that it pays off more if you try to think as a value investor targeting sustainable long term growth.

All these shakeoffs are meant to get rid of the potential new elite (because that's what we are) by the old elite. The old elite very well knows that they can exploit people's gambling-like attitude to empty their pockets and make them buy back at way higher levels later on. As always, the elite becomes more elite as years go by, the average joes become less average as years go by. It's not for nothing that most of the average joes have only one potential outlook, which is poverty.

People don't realize how much of a precious asset their own. They blindly speculate with it, disrespect it, go for alts, etc. The old elite will become the new elite due to people's stupidity.

When will there ever be a time in our life where we get such opportunity again?  

[gentlemand]

When will there ever be a time in our life where we get such opportunity again?  

This is deffo one of the most fascinating aspects of the whole thing.

Never before and likely never again will the little guy be able to get in on the ground floor of something potentially world changing before the old guard. It's pretty stunning how few people reflect on this angle and how ready they are to chuck it away without pausing to think it through.

[davinchi]

I understand that people should focus on benefits of USING bitcoin and I agree but lets not forget that for that to be feasible people also want the price to be semi-steady. Not like same all the time or so but at least not %70 swings, it should move like %5-10 monthly max for that (ondrops, on ups it can be whatever).

However people who see this as a get rich quick thing unfortunately causes bitcoin to be "a money making gadget" instead of what it is, real money.