Hmm, I have been wondering, if all people that want to get hands on Bitcoins can either buy it straight or mine for them, I wonder:
If I plug in the combined hash rate of the bitcoin network, the current difficulty, the cheapest price for GHs and assume free electricity (or lowest price, as in Iceland). Could I predict the future value of the coin?
If new bitcoins become harder or more costly to mine, I think it would dictate the price of all bitcoins, right?
Let me do an example, if all miners could order all mining equipment instantly at current prices, the cheapest money per GH/s, according to
http://thegenesisblock.com/mining/ would be Prospero X-3 from Black Arrow, which is the cheapest electricity for GH/s, according to the same site.
So if I insert all information as all the network were made from them, by their delivery date, I would get the result:
http://thegenesisblock.com/mining/a/97d9d07deeAs it was calculated, it would not turn this at a profitable adventure, I then conclude:
One of these things must happen to mining be at least zero profit/loss:
Difficulty does not increase (calculated as 72% increase/ month);
or price of bitcoin increases along time;
or they invent even more cheaper GH/s per money, because even if electricity was free, it would not get back the investment (break even in a human life time).
or they delivered faster.
