Which coin is next? - Multipool effects after Doge block halving - 30GH/s hash

[ScroogeD]

Currently every big multipool like middlecoin or multipool.us have to mine Doge because of their size and hashrate of ~30GH/s.
In a few days doge's block reward will be halved and there might be two possible outcomes:

1. Doge's value rises further, mining stays profitable for the pools, there's no effect on the altcoin market.
2. Doge's value stays the same or drops. In this case, the multipools have to search for a new coin. With a hashrate of almost 30GH/s this will have a huge effect on the new coin and its difficulty, furthermore trading needs great volume, that they are able to exchange the coin into Bitcoin - so most probably it has to be listed on a big exchanges like Cryptsy. There might be a lot of pump & dumps, but this might also be a chance for a coin to grow.

Which coin is next and what is the outcome? What's the effect on the new coins? What do you think is going to happen?

[thedude11]

After tomorrow 2/14/14, doge reward block will be halving from 500,000.00 coins to 250,000.00 coins which will cause a big decrease in payout for miners with less than 1mh/s unless prices go beyond the moon. Right now with a rig mining @ 1mh/s (1k kh/s) you'd make roughly $12.50 per day before electricity expenses.
 
 
Doge @ 1mh/s before halving:


 
 
Doge @ 1mh/s after block reward halving in two days:
 



 
Unless the difficulty plummets 50% from 1600  to 800 or the price of doge significantly increases by 193.66% from 0.00000284 to 0.00000550. Or a combination of the two, difficulty decreases by 25% ~1200 and price increases by 140% ~0.00000400 then it would still be worth mining doge. If neither happens then mining doge with less than 1mh/s  will be a waste of hashing power since other coins yield more return. There will still be a large community and demand for doge after the halving but for people who are mining for profit other coins will probably be more appealing for those people and therefore will see a lot less demand for doge in the next week or so. There still is a miraculous chance this coin will skyrocket to the moon somehow and with the rate increasing by 101-200% its very unlikely, there is more of a chance that id win Linus's giveaway  then see the rate increase that much. Even if it did the difficulty would also increase probably beyond 2k. All in all, enjoy the doge mining while its most fun and profitable, and we'll see how the market reacts to the halving in the next couple days and weeks.

Scrypt-janes have some potential, probably going to mine one of them if mining in a multipool with my 1MH/s is less profitable after doge halves.

[flounderella]

At some point in the next 1-2 weeks there'll be a selloff as big miners offload their stakes and I'll be waiting to buy some. In the meanwhile better use of the GPU is to mine easier difficulty coins and convert to BTC/LTC

[hellscabane]

I say expect the balancing act. So block size halves. Then multipools mine other coins. Then DOGE increases to compensate. So multipools switch back to DOGE. However, the sudden spike in difficulty of other coins slightly increases their price (I know the whole difficulty vs. price argument; I'm saying that in this case it's happening okay?). Multipools switch back to these other coins. And rinse and repeat for maybe 4-5 cycles.

This will probably be followed by a significant sell off. After that, who knows...

[eddilicious]

OP, great analysis, if doge hash rate is 90GHs right now. at least 30GHs has to go away to look for a new home. look at volume in cryptsy, it will probably go to wdc, mega

I say expect the balancing act. So block size halves. Then multipools mine other coins. Then DOGE increases to compensate. So multipools switch back to DOGE. However, the sudden spike in difficulty of other coins slightly increases their price (I know the whole difficulty vs. price argument; I'm saying that in this case it's happening okay?). Multipools switch back to these other coins. And rinse and repeat for maybe 4-5 cycles.

This will probably be followed by a significant sell off. After that, who knows...

I doubt difficulty spike will lead to increase in price, the demand does not change, there is only so many bids in the market. multipool increased the number of newly minted coin available for sale. Everyday, so many coins are minted. Before, coins move to personal wallet. now, they sit in multipool account, and most of them will be transfer to an exchange wallet.

[hellscabane]

OP, great analysis, if doge hash rate is 90GHs right now. at least 30GHs has to go away to look for a new home. look at volume in cryptsy, it will probably go to wdc, mega

I say expect the balancing act. So block size halves. Then multipools mine other coins. Then DOGE increases to compensate. So multipools switch back to DOGE. However, the sudden spike in difficulty of other coins slightly increases their price (I know the whole difficulty vs. price argument; I'm saying that in this case it's happening okay?). Multipools switch back to these other coins. And rinse and repeat for maybe 4-5 cycles.

This will probably be followed by a significant sell off. After that, who knows...

I doubt difficulty spike will lead to increase in price, the demand does not change, there is only so many bids in the market. multipool increased the number of newly minted coin available for sale. Everyday, so many coins are minted. Before, coins move to personal wallet. now, they sit in multipool account, and most of them will be transfer to an exchange wallet.

Once upon a time I would say that. But it seems that more and more auto-selling scripts and functions are pegged to a combination of trade volume, price level, and current difficulty. That's why I am going against the grain and saying that these "artificial" difficulty spikes will cause a temporary spike in prices which would be corrected in a few cycles. Mind you, when I say a few cycles, I mean like within a day or two at the most.

[jmerme01]

At some point in the next 1-2 weeks there'll be a selloff as big miners offload their stakes and I'll be waiting to buy some.

Don't you think the big multipool miners are already offloading their stakes every day (or more frequently)?  Just because they stop mining doesn't mean there's going to be a sudden off-loading.  If anything I'd expect block halving to put an upward pressure on prices.

[fcmatt]

At some point in the next 1-2 weeks there'll be a selloff as big miners offload their stakes and I'll be waiting to buy some.

Don't you think the big multipool miners are already offloading their stakes every day (or more frequently)?  Just because they stop mining doesn't mean there's going to be a sudden off-loading.  If anything I'd expect block halving to put an upward pressure on prices.

I have a feeling more then a few miners have not sold doge in speculation the halving will result in a jump in price. Afterwards they will sell because i think the halving is already priced in. Combine that with the fact that mining doge never results in good payouts for the hashing power. You always get less then the calcs tell you.. A lot less. So that means people are going to switch until diff goes down. So whatever coin(s) has enough ask depth will win the hashing power.