Something has just occured to me: The Chinese charts do not look nearly as oversold as the USD charts. Instead, they look like they have just begun a normal drift into a downtrend. Now I realize that I may be making an error in analyzing USD charts: What if... the trend is actually driven by China? China has been instrumental in driving prices throughout the past 6 months and movements on their charts have always trumped ours (whether that's due to some type of manipulation I do not know). If the volume in btcchina during the bull market was in fact real, then we could assume that the Chinese are actually driving the bear market as they sell out now. If so, it would be prudent to follow Chinese charts. I know it is a complex mess because the support will ultimately come from the US but the sellers are Chinese, and there is a U.S. chart and a Chinese chart and somehow you have to combine these... But let's assume hypothetically the Chinese chart is actually more important. If the bear market actually plays out on Chinese charts, and looks something like the bear market in 2013, then it could play out something like this:
I'm not sure how this would affect USD trends. USD could fall as low as low as $300, or it might find support at $500 after all if fiat starts flooding into Bitstamp by new investors. In any case, expect the trend to be different than what you are currently analyzing on USD charts now. It will be a rough game.
