Bitcoin Price Dropping Precipitously

[gentlemand]

Anyone who buys in and doesn't expect their holdings to fluctuate all over the joint clearly can't read or process numbers. It's par for the course.

[Armis]

The price have been dropping since I started keeping BTC

ouch, sorry about that

The cryptocurrency game is a gamble, at least with btc you have the opportunity to trade into many other things so that you have a second opportunity to see some profit.  200, 300, and 500% weekly increases for btc are history, but still exist for many other CCs, of course none are as recognized or "stable" as btc.

The CC industry it too young and weak to truly invest with only your brain, you have to invest mainly with your heart and hope you picked a winner; but use your head to decide when to cut your losses.

good luck

[gentlemand]

The price has fluttered below my buy in average a few times. I went into this fully expecting that to happen.

Having looked into the price history I knew perfectly well that I might have to wait 12-18 months to make proper gains. I did my homework and was at peace with that thought.

Right now anyone whose average is over $1000 is unfortunate but it shouldn't be a surprise.

[600watt]

Anyone who buys in and doesn't expect their holdings to fluctuate all over the joint clearly can't read or process numbers. It's par for the course.

So, when you say "fluctuate" do you mean over and under your purchase price, or any up and down movement even is all of the fluctuation is under your purchase price?

That guy has ONLY seen a decreased value in his position, if he purchased at $1200, $1100, or even $1000 in november or december he really could be only seeing devaluation of his holdings, although the coin has enjoyed massive "fluctuation" during that same time.

What do you suggest he do?

buying @peak is not nice, but nothing to worry. he just needs to wait longer, that is all.
i happened to buy in @ 20111 peak. i got 100 coins for € 2000,- and directly after i went in, the price tanked all the way down to $ 2,- ... my investment was only worth € 200,- FOR THE LONGEST TIME. it looked like the worst deal i ever made. i had to wait until 2013 to see the light again. boy, am i happy not to have given up on bitcoin. because today this € 2000,- investment is worth around € 50 000,-
turned out to be not the worst but the best investment ever.
in the long run, except for those buying @the last peak, NO ONE EVER lost money buying and holding btc, no matter at what peak one bought.

there were several threads of people getting nervous that bought at the april 2013 peak. even now they made 100% profit.

whoever bought @last peak: put your coins to an offline wallet and keep the keys safe and wait 6 months. then check again.

[Armis]

The price has fluttered below my buy in average a few times. I went into this fully expecting that to happen.

Having looked into the price history I knew perfectly well that I might have to wait 12-18 months to make proper gains. I did my homework and was at peace with that thought.

Right now anyone whose average is over $1000 is unfortunate but it shouldn't be a surprise.

wow, that's truly a conservative perspective for anyone looking at a cryptocurrency (CC) of any type

Btc just made 5yrs old some days ago, and it wasn't until about April or May of 2013 that any level of "legitimacy" was truly enjoyed by the CCs, so I really congratulate you on having a year+ perspective; but I assure you that that is well beyond reasonable expectations for anyone getting into such a highly dangerous, extremely young, and massively volatile market in 2014.   The track record for btc before November 2013 is not indicative of it's performance after that, it's a totally different world.

January is gone, and nearly half of Feb is too yet btc only hit a grand once.  

A pure chartist will tell you that based on the charts the true high value of btc is about $400, and that anything above that is ridiculous speculation.   But if you look at all of the negative ancillary forces pressuring the CC, IMO it's true value is about $1000 and anything under that is a bargain.

Btc's biggest harm is being caused internally by hacker, scammers, bad cus svc, and lack of self-regulation. I think if you remove the hype, defamation, and increase market security the value will see $1200 again this year.  But since the world loves it's scary, wild, and crazy rides my bet is hype and defamation will be the rule resulting in your $500 to $1400 cycles.

 


 

[DPoS]

A pure chartist will tell you that based on the charts the true high value of btc is about $400, and that anything above that is ridiculous speculation.   But if you look at all of the negative ancillary forces pressuring the CC, IMO it's true value is about $1000 and anything under that is a bargain.

Btc's biggest harm is being caused internally by hacker, scammers, bad cus svc, and lack of self-regulation. I think if you remove the hype, defamation, and increase market security the value will see $1200 again this year.  But since the world loves it's scary, wild, and crazy rides my bet is hype and defamation will be the rule resulting in your $500 to $1400 cycles.

just look at it with inflows and outflows...  that late fall runup was a perfect storm of China, SR going down & Coinbase allowing 10BTC instant payments..  and the climate still had USD $$$ flows into BTCe & Gox pretty easily

then what happened??   China got prudish.. Coinbase crimped instants by 90%..  AML/KYC enforced everywhere which slammed the door on BTCe & Gox while lots of merchants cropped up to take your bitcoins (Overstock/TigerDirect)

Anyone who thinks this has not been the driving factor of price is on the wrong side of the trade


Until there are 10x more Coinbases to bring back that level of instant inflow plus more exchanges that can take USD $$ without too much hassle then you can get $1000 again

I am not even sure Wall Street can prop up the price until the instant flows are back to last fall levels

[Armis]

buying @peak is not nice, but nothing to worry. he just needs to wait longer, that is all.
i happened to buy in @ 20111 peak. i got 100 coins for € 2000,- and directly after i went in, the price tanked all the way down to $ 2,- ... my investment was only worth € 200,- FOR THE LONGEST TIME. it looked like the worst deal i ever made. i had to wait until 2013 to see the light again. boy, am i happy not to have given up on bitcoin. because today this € 2000,- investment is worth around € 50 000,-
turned out to be not the worst but the best investment ever.
in the long run, except for those buying @the last peak, NO ONE EVER lost money buying and holding btc, no matter at what peak one bought.

there were several threads of people getting nervous that bought at the april 2013 peak. even now they made 100% profit.

whoever bought @last peak: put your coins to an offline wallet and keep the keys safe and wait 6 months. then check again.

That's a wonderful story, and I'm glad to meet someone that owned btc prior to 2013.

I chuckled when you said: "NO ONE EVER lost money buying and holding btc," because of course by definition as long as the position is not defunct as long as you don't cash out any loss (or profit) is technically unrealized.

With all due respect as I mentioned earlier, btc life prior to Nov 2013 is totally different from btc life after that.   And since you were around from before April 2013 the exact same comment can be said for that time line divide -- btc life before April 2013 is totally different from btc life after that.  

What occurred between April 2013 and December 2013 in the btc world must be studied deeply at high academic levels.  

[Armis]

A pure chartist will tell you that based on the charts the true high value of btc is about $400, and that anything above that is ridiculous speculation.   But if you look at all of the negative ancillary forces pressuring the CC, IMO it's true value is about $1000 and anything under that is a bargain.

Btc's biggest harm is being caused internally by hacker, scammers, bad cus svc, and lack of self-regulation. I think if you remove the hype, defamation, and increase market security the value will see $1200 again this year.  But since the world loves it's scary, wild, and crazy rides my bet is hype and defamation will be the rule resulting in your $500 to $1400 cycles.

just look at it with inflows and outflows...  that late fall runup was a perfect storm of China, SR going down & Coinbase allowing 10BTC instant payments..  and the climate still had USD $$$ flows into BTCe & Gox pretty easily

then what happened??   China got prudish.. Coinbase crimped instants by 90%..  AML/KYC enforced everywhere which slammed the door on BTCe & Gox while lots of merchants cropped up to take your bitcoins (Overstock/TigerDirect)

Anyone who thinks this has not been the driving factor of price is on the wrong side of the trade


Until there are 10x more Coinbases to bring back that level of instant inflow plus more exchanges that can take USD $$ without too much hassle then you can get $1000 again

I am not even sure Wall Street can prop up the price until the instant flows are back to last fall levels

I appreciate that

Notwithstanding, Coinbase is not a large enough player in the cryptocurrency economy to move the CC market in a meaningful way, like a Mt Gox, Bitstamp, BTC-e, or the like can.

Coinbase certainly could have grown mega large but they clearly deliberately decided to stay clear of the trouble that went with the power position.  Look at campbx the market killed them, they too could have stayed in, cleaned up their act, and grow magnificently but they decided it wasn't worth the trouble.   

Mt Gox is getting hit from every angle: hackers, customers, and govt, the ONLY things keeping them in it is the massive power trip and the ocean of cash. 

As for the CC industry, we (USA) are still not a major player yet, I agree 100% that we need many more Coinbase+ models to emerge. 

[toddfletcher]

wow, that's truly a conservative perspective for anyone looking at a cryptocurrency (CC) of any type

Btc just made 5yrs old some days ago, and it wasn't until about April or May of 2013 that any level of "legitimacy" was truly enjoyed by the CCs, so I really congratulate you on having a year+ perspective; but I assure you that that is well beyond reasonable expectations for anyone getting into such a highly dangerous, extremely young, and massively volatile market in 2014.  

Then they shouldn't be in bitcoin to begin with. I bought in during May 2013 when it was still bouncing around from the April spike, it spent the next 2 or 3 months below my buy price. I expected it, just as I expected to lose what I put in. It's all about framing your expectations going in, and having a solid understanding of where the true value lies in crypto currencies, so you don't get rattled.

[MatTheCat]

just look at it with inflows and outflows...  that late fall runup was a perfect storm of China, SR going down & Coinbase allowing 10BTC instant payments..  and the climate still had USD $$$ flows into BTCe & Gox pretty easily

then what happened??   China got prudish.. Coinbase crimped instants by 90%..  AML/KYC enforced everywhere which slammed the door on BTCe & Gox while lots of merchants cropped up to take your bitcoins (Overstock/TigerDirect)

Anyone who thinks this has not been the driving factor of price is on the wrong side of the trade


Until there are 10x more Coinbases to bring back that level of instant inflow plus more exchanges that can take USD $$ without too much hassle then you can get $1000 again

I am not even sure Wall Street can prop up the price until the instant flows are back to last fall levels

Great post.

One of those rare times when I feel I actually learned something from someone on here.

[podyx]

Bicoin will be back above $1200 by end of spring. Mt GOX will rise from it's ashes but it will never be the biggest bitcoin exchange again but it will not die.

I think the time to buy cheap alt coins is now. Bitcoin too...

Monday could be ugly but it will be a buying opportunity.

I am %99 percent sure about this!

Sure it will be like that. And maybe people will learn to dont panic SO much

That's so easy to say when your money isn't disappearing in front of your face.  

100 BTC worth $80,000 is suddenly worth $75K, then only a few hours later it is worth $60K then a few more hours it's worth $50K  how can you guarantee anyone at any that point that it will not continue to fall?  

The fact is, now the massive disaster is over, but your 100 BTC is not worth $80K, or $50K either, but $65K are you pleased?  

The whole cryptocurrency industry is both a game and a gamble

The way I see it is that 100k mbtc is 100k mbtc. You didn't lose shit

[Armis]

wow, that's truly a conservative perspective for anyone looking at a cryptocurrency (CC) of any type

Btc just made 5yrs old some days ago, and it wasn't until about April or May of 2013 that any level of "legitimacy" was truly enjoyed by the CCs, so I really congratulate you on having a year+ perspective; but I assure you that that is well beyond reasonable expectations for anyone getting into such a highly dangerous, extremely young, and massively volatile market in 2014.  

Then they shouldn't be in bitcoin to begin with. I bought in during May 2013 when it was still bouncing around from the April spike, it spent the next 2 or 3 months below my buy price. I expected it, just as I expected to lose what I put in. It's all about framing your expectations going in, and having a solid understanding of where the true value lies in crypto currencies, so you don't get rattled.

Ok, given your btc experience what was BTCs "true value" in Jan '14, what is it's true value today, and what do you expect it to be a year after you purchased it in May of 2014?
That will tell me what type of expectations you have for btc, and how your expectations square with the actual performance of the CC.

[Armis]

just look at it with inflows and outflows...  that late fall runup was a perfect storm of China, SR going down & Coinbase allowing 10BTC instant payments..  and the climate still had USD $$$ flows into BTCe & Gox pretty easily

then what happened??   China got prudish.. Coinbase crimped instants by 90%..  AML/KYC enforced everywhere which slammed the door on BTCe & Gox while lots of merchants cropped up to take your bitcoins (Overstock/TigerDirect)

Anyone who thinks this has not been the driving factor of price is on the wrong side of the trade


Until there are 10x more Coinbases to bring back that level of instant inflow plus more exchanges that can take USD $$ without too much hassle then you can get $1000 again

I am not even sure Wall Street can prop up the price until the instant flows are back to last fall levels

Great post.

One of those rare times when I feel I actually learned something from someone on here.

You realize comparing Coinbase to MtGox is like comparing Porsche to GM, Porsche is a wonderful company but they can't impact the auto market like GM; likewise Coinbase cannot impact the CC market like any of the top 6 CC exchanges.

http://www.cryptocoincharts.info/v2/markets/info

[toddfletcher]

Ok, given your btc experience what was BTCs "true value" in Jan '14, what is it's true value today, and what do you expect it to be a year after you purchased it in May of 2014?
That will tell me what type of expectations you have for btc, and how your expectations square with the actual performance of the CC.

Read the sentence again, I was not referring to it's price value but it's utility value, as in "it's value comes from low transaction fees" for example. I don't speculate about it's price value because it's unknowable, the utility value is also ultimately unknowable now, but if its an avenue to a more automated financial system the efficiency improvements alone will justify higher prices.

[chesthing]

Bicoin will be back above $1200 by end of spring. Mt GOX will rise from it's ashes but it will never be the biggest bitcoin exchange again but it will not die.

I think the time to buy cheap alt coins is now. Bitcoin too...

Monday could be ugly but it will be a buying opportunity.

I am %99 percent sure about this!

Sure it will be like that. And maybe people will learn to dont panic SO much

That's so easy to say when your money isn't disappearing in front of your face.  

100 BTC worth $80,000 is suddenly worth $75K, then only a few hours later it is worth $60K then a few more hours it's worth $50K  how can you guarantee anyone at any that point that it will not continue to fall?  

The fact is, now the massive disaster is over, but your 100 BTC is not worth $80K, or $50K either, but $65K are you pleased?  

The whole cryptocurrency industry is both a game and a gamble

The way I see it is that 100k mbtc is 100k mbtc. You didn't lose shit

Of course he's lost a lot of value, no matter how you want to spin it. A year from now it may not mean a thing, but I'd be pretty freaking unhappy in his shoes.

[boumalo]

Bicoin will be back above $1200 by end of spring. Mt GOX will rise from it's ashes but it will never be the biggest bitcoin exchange again but it will not die.

I think the time to buy cheap alt coins is now. Bitcoin too...

Monday could be ugly but it will be a buying opportunity.

I am %99 percent sure about this!

Sure it will be like that. And maybe people will learn to dont panic SO much

That's so easy to say when your money isn't disappearing in front of your face.  

100 BTC worth $80,000 is suddenly worth $75K, then only a few hours later it is worth $60K then a few more hours it's worth $50K  how can you guarantee anyone at any that point that it will not continue to fall?  

The fact is, now the massive disaster is over, but your 100 BTC is not worth $80K, or $50K either, but $65K are you pleased?  

The whole cryptocurrency industry is both a game and a gamble

That's why you need to only invest an amount you are confortable with and hold for long term while using some BTC here and there because it is convenient

[Armis]

Bicoin will be back above $1200 by end of spring. Mt GOX will rise from it's ashes but it will never be the biggest bitcoin exchange again but it will not die.

I think the time to buy cheap alt coins is now. Bitcoin too...

Monday could be ugly but it will be a buying opportunity.

I am %99 percent sure about this!

Sure it will be like that. And maybe people will learn to dont panic SO much

That's so easy to say when your money isn't disappearing in front of your face.  

100 BTC worth $80,000 is suddenly worth $75K, then only a few hours later it is worth $60K then a few more hours it's worth $50K  how can you guarantee anyone at any that point that it will not continue to fall?  

The fact is, now the massive disaster is over, but your 100 BTC is not worth $80K, or $50K either, but $65K are you pleased?  

The whole cryptocurrency industry is both a game and a gamble

That's why you need to only invest an amount you are confortable with and hold for long term while using some BTC here and there because it is convenient

There's no hard or fast rule of cryptocurrency investing.   How much cash do you have, checking, savings, CD etc ....the fact of the matter is even if you look at it as SPECULATIVE COMMODITIES and you are only supposed to invest what you are willing to lose, you are still pissed at what occured.

Look you go to a casino knowing that there are wayyyy more losers than winners, some time you win but most of the time you lose, you think if you win 5 weeks in a row that you won't feel bad if you lose the next time?  of course you will. 

However CC isn't cascino gambling, nor btc is it a high risk commodity, well not outside of Norway (and perhaps some others I'm unaware of), it's a currency or at least this is our understanding.

Recently BTC-e I believe also announced that they too were halting withdrawals for the same reason that Mt.Gox halted their withdrawals.  however it didn't have the same effect on the market, why?  Because there is a way to handle matter like that correctly and apparently one exchange knew how to do it without distrupting the market and the other didn't. 

Self-regulating standards would mitigate disruptions caused by matter such as that.

[roslinpl]

Seems like times for cheap coins are close good

buy buy buy

[boumalo]

Bicoin will be back above $1200 by end of spring. Mt GOX will rise from it's ashes but it will never be the biggest bitcoin exchange again but it will not die.

I think the time to buy cheap alt coins is now. Bitcoin too...

Monday could be ugly but it will be a buying opportunity.

I am %99 percent sure about this!

Sure it will be like that. And maybe people will learn to dont panic SO much

That's so easy to say when your money isn't disappearing in front of your face.  

100 BTC worth $80,000 is suddenly worth $75K, then only a few hours later it is worth $60K then a few more hours it's worth $50K  how can you guarantee anyone at any that point that it will not continue to fall?  

The fact is, now the massive disaster is over, but your 100 BTC is not worth $80K, or $50K either, but $65K are you pleased?  

The whole cryptocurrency industry is both a game and a gamble

That's why you need to only invest an amount you are confortable with and hold for long term while using some BTC here and there because it is convenient

There's no hard or fast rule of cryptocurrency investing.   How much cash do you have, checking, savings, CD etc ....the fact of the matter is even if you look at it as SPECULATIVE COMMODITIES and you are only supposed to invest what you are willing to lose, you are still pissed at what occured.

Look you go to a casino knowing that there are wayyyy more losers than winners, some time you win but most of the time you lose, you think if you win 5 weeks in a row that you won't feel bad if you lose the next time?  of course you will. 

However CC isn't cascino gambling, nor btc is it a high risk commodity, well not outside of Norway (and perhaps some others I'm unaware of), it's a currency or at least this is our understanding.

Recently BTC-e I believe also announced that they too were halting withdrawals for the same reason that Mt.Gox halted their withdrawals.  however it didn't have the same effect on the market, why?  Because there is a way to handle matter like that correctly and apparently one exchange knew how to do it without distrupting the market and the other didn't. 

Self-regulating standards would mitigate disruptions caused by matter such as that.

Bitcoin is still very new and volatile, of course it is never nice to lose money but I think that someone careful should not have more than 1% of his wealth in Bitcoin if he doesn't want to be too emotionally invest, except if you don't have much wealth : if you have 5000$ in the bank and you buy 500$ of BTC you won't be too annoyed by losing 20%