future bitcoin transaction fees

[daoquanghuan]

Currently the cost of bitcoin transactions is very cheap due to the relatively small amount of transactions, moving 48,000 bits per 4 cents, very cheap compared to December 2017 at some time up to $ 50 due to too many transactions at that time. . However, when the market recovers, there will be many transactions to be made and then whether technologies such as Segwit or Lightning network will help bitcoin trading faster and transaction costs do not become expensive. or not?

[BrewMaster]

it is not just market "recovering" but it is whenever price makes a big move. for example a big drop or a big rise. that move means traders will be making a lot more transactions to and from exchanges. obviously in both cases there are people buying and there others selling.

BUT that amount of transaction has never been enough to cause any kind of big trouble. it is basically a small increase in number of transactions for a short time which is resolved in a short time too. for example a 10% increase for 6 hours which is over by the end of the day. the fee market in this case is not going to become that fierce like last year.

however if we see another spam attack like last year and whenever that comes at the same time with a big price move we are in a big trouble and fees go ridiculously high.

SegWit is the solution that is already implemented and is being used but still not that much. it has increased the capacity a little and it has the potential to increase it a little more. which solves things a little which is more than enough based on current adoption that bitcoin has based on what i have seen so far.

Lightning network is more like an additional layer which can potentially take the load of the main net and transfer some of it on its own layer. for example imagine traders who have an open channel with their exchange and instead of making deposits (1 on chain) and letting their coins be on exchange and withdraw (2nd on chain) their coins when they are done trading for the day, they do it 1000 times a day without any on chain transaction (well only 2 but that can last as long as they want not just 1 day) and fast and cheap. so when we have that big price move, instead of making an on chain transaction you just make a transaction on LN which is going to be instant and you won't crowd the mempool either.

[hoangthipro244]

No less transaction fees, but we also found that the time to confirm the transaction is much faster than 2017. In 2017 it took me nearly 1 hour to send 1 btc but now it is different. This is due to changing the way the new btc block chain works in September and 11/2017. In my opinion, when the market recovers, the number of transactions will increase but it will not affect the transaction fee, but it seems that the time of confirmation will be affected but not much.

[BrewMaster]

No less transaction fees, but we also found that the time to confirm the transaction is much faster than 2017. In 2017 it took me nearly 1 hour to send 1 btc but now it is different. This is due to changing the way the new btc block chain works in September and 11/2017.

that is wrong. nothing about how bitcoin blockchain and confirmation time works have changed. it is the same exact thing as 2009 when the first block was found. we are having 2016 blocks per 2 weeks which is approximately 1 block per 10 minutes.

you pay a fee from 0 to any amount that is standard and the miners seeing your transaction can choose to pick it up and include it in the next block they find or  choose to ignore it.
during a couple of months of 2017 there were more transactions than there was block size so a fee war/competition started where you had to pay a higher fee so that the miners don't ignore your transaction.

[fiulpro]

You know back in 2017 I have heard one person had to pay 17$ transaction fee for transferring 25$ from one account to another.

This was a total disaster, but now with segWit and this less price the fee is relatively less from what it was before.
As the price will rise so will be the transaction fees and everything else too.

But the reason segWit was adopted is because even when the price is high it could provide a reasonable fee.
I think transaction fee is a big downfall when it comes to Bitcoins it's primarily the reason why people choose other cryptocurrencies so I think in the future it will certainly decrease because they will realize how much competition there is in the market and if they didn't did anything then it will be disastrous for the future of Bitcoins.

Right now it's so and so not big not small.

[Cult]

I have a lot faith in the Lightning technology. The was a recent debate between Jameson Lopp and Roger Ver where they discussed Bitcoin and Bitcoin Cash, where Jameson made a really great point that bitcoin is in some way similar to the Internet which has several layers. Thus, bitcoin should be seen as a skeleton which we can put various muscles upon. Ligning has all chances to become on one those muscles.

[hatshepsut93]

SegWit already got pretty good adoption, so the current low fees can be attributed to it. But SegWit is only a small capacity increase, and it was never meant to be a scaling solution, SegWit is an update that fixes vulnerability with signatures, which is important for future updates, like LN.

Lightning Network will and already has very cheap fees, but this doesn't mean that on-chain fees will stay low too. First, if onchain fees were low, why bother with LN and its channels? Also, LN channels have some limits to their capacity, LN is designed to serve for smaller daily spendings rather than being your saving wallet. So, onchain transactions will still be used for big transfers, and in the future the number of those transfers will keep growing, especially during the price increases, so the fees will keep growing too. In the very long run, the fees will grow huge, easily $500 or $1,000 in the next 20 years, depending on the levels of adoption. But this will be fine, because we'll have Lightning and some other cool technologies.

[tikanima]

I would like to reduce the transaction fee in the future, you understand it is expected of everyone

[pxo.011]

you had a point i have a same vision with you about tx hash and transaction fees so i also reviewed about segwit and lightning network. i hope they will help if the transaction of bitcoin is big. there is a lot of transaction but not really big as the trade in last month of 2017. those fees was so expensive but bitcoin has a big value in that time.

[jefrystar]

Bitcoin is gradually improving. The transaction procedure has made faster than before and they also have reduced the transaction fees. I expect that the fees wion't be increased when the price rises for bitcoin.

[stompix]

SegWit already got pretty good adoption, so the current low fees can be attributed to it. But SegWit is only a small capacity increase, and it was never meant to be a scaling solution, SegWit is an update that fixes vulnerability with signatures, which is important for future updates, like LN.

Lightning Network will and already has very cheap fees, but this doesn't mean that on-chain fees will stay low too. First, if onchain fees were low, why bother with LN and its channels? Also, LN channels have some limits to their capacity, LN is designed to serve for smaller daily spendings rather than being your saving wallet. So, onchain transactions will still be used for big transfers, and in the future the number of those transfers will keep growing, especially during the price increases, so the fees will keep growing too. In the very long run, the fees will grow huge, easily $500 or $1,000 in the next 20 years, depending on the levels of adoption. But this will be fine, because we'll have Lightning and some other cool technologies.

Fees of 500$ or 1000$? Never.
People will never pay 500$ or 1000$ for that, at this point it will simply not be worth using BTC anymore

During the last hike, a lot of users stopped paying with BTC and just waited, using BTC only when there as no other choice.
If the fees will go to 1000$ (that's half of the median wage in EU) who do you think will keep on paying those?
People, that transfer millions a day? Maybe, but those are not enough to clog the chain.

Just imagine, the network is doing an average of about 400 000tx when the blocks are full. With a 1000$ fee, it would mean 400 million a day in fees or 1.2 billion a month. Even the whales will turn into shrimps at this rate.

[dablatair]

I really think that lightning or other technology to improve speed and fees of BTC are mandatory for the future as it could not be supported if market will go back to bull and so other serious crypto that are much more faster and cheaper.

[EMS-007]

Currently the cost of bitcoin transactions is very cheap due to the relatively small amount of transactions, moving 48,000 bits per 4 cents, very cheap compared to December 2017 at some time up to $ 50 due to too many transactions at that time. . However, when the market recovers, there will be many transactions to be made and then whether technologies such as Segwit or Lightning network will help bitcoin trading faster and transaction costs do not become expensive. or not?

I'm not sure if the Lightning Network can significantly lessen the transaction fees even the time of huge volume transactions specially on a Bearish market season where many investors are coming!

[andeonnut]

When the block reward halves do you think miners will flea if the transaction fees dont increase?

[hatshepsut93]

Fees of 500$ or 1000$? Never.
People will never pay 500$ or 1000$ for that, at this point it will simply not be worth using BTC anymore

During the last hike, a lot of users stopped paying with BTC and just waited, using BTC only when there as no other choice.
If the fees will go to 1000$ (that's half of the median wage in EU) who do you think will keep on paying those?
People, that transfer millions a day? Maybe, but those are not enough to clog the chain.

Just imagine, the network is doing an average of about 400 000tx when the blocks are full. With a 1000$ fee, it would mean 400 million a day in fees or 1.2 billion a month. Even the whales will turn into shrimps at this rate.

1. Blockspace will keep being limited to allow every user to independently verify the blockchain, so it shouldn't be strange that the fees will be going up. Since wel'll have space only for 10-30 onchain transactions per second, it will be taken by the biggest transactions, and $500-1000 will be a pretty good price for moving millions, it's less than what banks take now. Of course it heavily depends on Bitcoin's adoption, it if will be low, fees will be only dozens of dollars.

2. Don't forget that by 2030 over 95% of Bitcoins will be mined, so to afford sufficient levels of PoW security the fees will have to rise to compensate for lower block rewards. 

3. Devs are planning on onchain fees getting more and more expensive in the future, so they focus their attention on solutions like LN to make Bitcoin work as a currency for everyday usage. https://medium.com/@rusty_lightning/dear-bitcoin-im-sorry-fees-will-rise-b002b1449054

[stompix]

Fees of 500$ or 1000$? Never.
People will never pay 500$ or 1000$ for that, at this point it will simply not be worth using BTC anymore

During the last hike, a lot of users stopped paying with BTC and just waited, using BTC only when there as no other choice.
If the fees will go to 1000$ (that's half of the median wage in EU) who do you think will keep on paying those?
People, that transfer millions a day? Maybe, but those are not enough to clog the chain.

Just imagine, the network is doing an average of about 400 000tx when the blocks are full. With a 1000$ fee, it would mean 400 million a day in fees or 1.2 billion a month. Even the whales will turn into shrimps at this rate.

1. Blockspace will keep being limited to allow every user to independently verify the blockchain, so it shouldn't be strange that the fees will be going up. Since wel'll have space only for 10-30 onchain transactions per second, it will be taken by the biggest transactions, and $500-1000 will be a pretty good price for moving millions, it's less than what banks take now. Of course it heavily depends on Bitcoin's adoption, it if will be low, fees will be only dozens of dollars.

As I told you in the first post, you realize that in order to have that fees you will need approximately 400 000 people transferring each day millions worth of BTC?
There are 15 million millionaires in the world, each of them would have to make at least one transaction a day to cover this.

And do you know how much banks are charging for transferring millions?
You're going to be surprised but for business accounts at least ING charges 0.1% with a max fee of 75 euros for transactions up to 1 million.
(internationally, not SEPA).

No way, a BTC network with txs of 1000$ will never be popular and we will never see mass adoption, rather mass fleeing.

Don't forget that by 2030 over 95% of Bitcoins will be mined, so to afford sufficient levels of PoW security the fees will have to rise to compensate for lower block rewards.

In order to guarantee the same level of protection for the chain as now and excluding the reward, the average tx must be somewhere below 20$, a bit less if segwit adoptions will grow.

[jseverson]

3. Devs are planning on onchain fees getting more and more expensive in the future, so they focus their attention on solutions like LN to make Bitcoin work as a currency for everyday usage. https://medium.com/@rusty_lightning/dear-bitcoin-im-sorry-fees-will-rise-b002b1449054

Lightning won't help in this case because on-chain transactions are still going to be necessary every now and then. It won't be viable if every transaction costed $500-$1000 in fees.

Either way, it's not like the door is completely closed for block size increases in the future, so on-chain transactions don't have to be that bad:

https://bitcoin.stackexchange.com/questions/66120/on-chain-scaling-still-required-with-lightning-network

The Lightning Network whitepaper itself says block size increases may still be necessary. I'm sure we'll eventually reach a healthy middle somewhere down the line.

[tegarp90]

Currently the cost of bitcoin transactions is very cheap due to the relatively small amount of transactions, moving 48,000 bits per 4 cents, very cheap compared to December 2017 at some time up to $ 50 due to too many transactions at that time. . However, when the market recovers, there will be many transactions to be made and then whether technologies such as Segwit or Lightning network will help bitcoin trading faster and transaction costs do not become expensive. or not?

I think the more expensive bitcoin price is, the more expensive the transaction fee because the fee itself going up when the difficulty of bitcoin mining is increasing.
Hope in the future there are cryptocurrency with very low fees and very fast transaction speed.

[conanrien]

Well that’s right that the transaction fees were high in the past time but now it is very less. Which is very good and it is liked by every investors. I think that when the market will again recover this rate won’t get high anymore it will be in a constant position.

[Outsider07]

Nice and helpful informarion. I think new ways will be found to assure the transaction with low transaction cost. On that emergency time, Segwit or Lightning network can be used to avoid any complexity.