BTC Reversal Pattern, Technically And Fundamentally. What Do You Think?

[trupero_uno]

Hi,

I read a thread around last week to suggest a good time to buy bitcoin and hodl for long term, on that time bitcoin price was around USD 5,750-6,000. The thread posted fundamental analysis, here is the link : https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=4546167.0

Now I've found another analysis in technical made by experienced trader to say that currently Bitcoin is in reversal pattern mean that bearish will be ended soon and started for bullish. Here is the link for TA: https://www.newsbtc.com/2018/07/02/bitcoin-btc-price-watch-reversal-pattern-and-breakout/.

By above analysis for both fundamental and technical, I believe that now is the bottom price of bitcoin and ready to reverse strongly into bullish trend. This bottom price is really a strong support as tested 3 times as can be seen in the figure:



So we will see the green candle on crypto space onward, but as I posted on other thread to remind for risk management to be paid attention. For complete thread of risk management, here is the link: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=4546469.0

What do you think?

[Indamuck]

I agree with your sentiment about this being the start of a new bull run.  I've heard the mega fuders say that we will be in a bear market for 1-2 years similar to what happened after the Mt. Gox crash.  This time is different.  Crypto is much more established and widespread so that's why I believe this bear market is over.  I feel sorry for the panic sellers who bought at the top and ended up selling.  All they had to do was hld for the long term and bitcoin will eventually reach a new all time high.

[BrewMaster]

one of the strongest reasons that i also have to believe that price will NOT go below $6k and we may be seeing a proper reversal right now is the fact that we have seen this price tested 3 times and it had held and did that strongly.

and more importantly there is a strong psychological buy support level is being shaped up there that is making that price even harder to break into.
and i keep seeing more and more analysis Technical and Fundamental saying that it is the bottom. and as more people get behind these analysis that support becomes even stronger.

at this point i am only worried about the FOMO buyers. the same people who for the past weeks have been saying how bitcoin should go lower and the bear market to continue. they repeated it enough times to believe in it and not buy back so now with this rise we are going to see their FOMO buying signs like these but bigger:

[Tytanowy Janusz]

one of the strongest reasons that i also have to believe that price will NOT go below $6k and we may be seeing a proper reversal right now is the fact that we have seen this price tested 3 times and it had held and did that strongly.

and more importantly there is a strong psychological buy support level is being shaped up there that is making that price even harder to break into.
and i keep seeing more and more analysis Technical and Fundamental saying that it is the bottom. and as more people get behind these analysis that support becomes even stronger.

at this point i am only worried about the FOMO buyers. the same people who for the past weeks have been saying how bitcoin should go lower and the bear market to continue. they repeated it enough times to believe in it and not buy back so now with this rise we are going to see their FOMO buying signs like these but bigger:

There is no support that cant be broken.



Look how strong 12k support was. Strong rebounce each time price touch 12k. 4 times in a row. Then price broke 12k and immediately return above 12k - stoploses atack - 12k support confirmation - spring in acumulation process from wyckoff chart etc.... Yea we all know where price is now. It is possible that the same topic will be created after 1 year on strong 3k support.

Dont get me wrong. I hold bitcoin and ill hold it on 3k, 1k or 100k. But after few years with crypto i stoped to get to excited about TA, supports, indicators. Because when something looks like in TA book for sure its whales trap.

In my opinion volumen is too weak. We can bounce to 8k, than return to 6k or even 5k again, than after few weeks we will end bear market - but thats from TA - as I said i dont trust it that much especialy in crypto market and bitcoin market small enought to be pumped by 1 investor up to 10-20% in 1 h

[wantjokull]

Pretty convincing technical analysis you have plotted here.  I guess its remarkable to see how the support levels are getting build at 6K USD rate all the time. This support will actually help the bitcoin to regain its original dominance very quick. Looks like there is no more reason to stop us predicting that bitcoin will now hit the greater wall here. Hopefully all the sell walls might have been eaten up buy now. 
Lets just analyse more data that will be generated in few weeks time, because sometimes predicting too early with raw data might be harmful.

[gantez]

Yes, the reversal has started even the technicals are confirming the new trend. The market to me is going to take a new turn. The news on the new exchanges and countries adoptions are going to support the market.

[stomachgrowls]

one of the strongest reasons that i also have to believe that price will NOT go below $6k and we may be seeing a proper reversal right now is the fact that we have seen this price tested 3 times and it had held and did that strongly.

and more importantly there is a strong psychological buy support level is being shaped up there that is making that price even harder to break into.
and i keep seeing more and more analysis Technical and Fundamental saying that it is the bottom. and as more people get behind these analysis that support becomes even stronger.

at this point i am only worried about the FOMO buyers. the same people who for the past weeks have been saying how bitcoin should go lower and the bear market to continue. they repeated it enough times to believe in it and not buy back so now with this rise we are going to see their FOMO buying signs like these but bigger:

There is no support that cant be broken.



Look how strong 12k support was. Strong rebounce each time price touch 12k. 4 times in a row. Then price broke 12k and immediately return above 12k - stoploses atack - 12k support confirmation - spring in acumulation process from wyckoff chart etc.... Yea we all know where price is now. It is possible that the same topic will be created after 1 year on strong 3k support.

Dont get me wrong. I hold bitcoin and ill hold it on 3k, 1k or 100k. But after few years with crypto i stoped to get to excited about TA, supports, indicators. Because when something looks like in TA book for sure its whales trap.

Its not being mentioned by the guy above that it cant really be broken. No matter how strong the support is there would always be a tendency of break out and we have seen for how many times.This is why we do make technical analysis yet we do have our own views basing on these tools.5800-6000 support is indeed a support but anytime it can be broken and it would be always depending into its investors itself.
Im not also against with TA but this is also good for preference and its much better than have no chart to see at all and dont have any basis.

[Tytanowy Janusz]

Its not being mentioned by the guy above that it cant really be broken. No matter how strong the support is there would always be a tendency of break out and we have seen for how many times.This is why we do make technical analysis yet we do have our own views basing on these tools.5800-6000 support is indeed a support but anytime it can be broken and it would be always depending into its investors itself.
Im not also against with TA but this is also good for preference and its much better than have no chart to see at all and dont have any basis.

Well i just wanted to say that there are many forces that push price in various directions. They are daytraders, traders, hodlers, whales, huge investors accumulating and huge investors exiting market (and medium investors from 1$ bitcoin price who become huge invesotrs now having up to 20k bitcoins exiting market without knowledge and destroying it). In my opinion TA lovers - those who will defend 6k support are not strong enough on crypto market. And yea, we can have various predictions and my post was not aiming to  OP that he is not right. It was written to show different point of view and to warn about risk. Because if this support will be broken than price will accelerate immediately and stop around 4k.

When i see volume when price hits support its looks to me more like huge investor stops selling beafore 6k to dont break support to dont cause panic sell and dont destroy market. Then he w8 for recover - or pump a little and sell again. It looks more like that than like someone is buing all supply at 6k because its huge whale enter price.  Thats why i dont realy trust this support but i would love to see it help bitcoin recover.

[trupero_uno]

Nice feedback from you guys, interesting discussion. All your opinions are excellent, you are experienced in daily trading for using Technical Analysis. I want to know some other opinions related to fundamental analysis even BrewMaster has touched a bit. Hope there will be exploration for fundamental and also risk management with current situation. As the latest price, bitcoin is in green candle and risen around 10% from USD 6,000 which is exactly around USD 6,600. I think this figure has not yet shown a strong signal for bull run, still need further confirmation. If buy in this price, it is necessary to set stop loss on around USD 5,500 while to hodl in long run still be a better option.
Beside technical part, I am seeking on fundamental side since no significant news so far. Perhaps it is caused by previous effect of fundamental aspect such as the convention of G-20 etc or perhaps also pure technical aspect and more whales are believing this to drive bitcoin price higher.

[trupero_uno]

So far the issues of reversal pattern of Bitcoin seems more confirmed by current Bitcoin price above USD 7,000. We will see the next bull run for this reversal pattern in further time, we will watch together.

[stomachgrowls]

Its not being mentioned by the guy above that it cant really be broken. No matter how strong the support is there would always be a tendency of break out and we have seen for how many times.This is why we do make technical analysis yet we do have our own views basing on these tools.5800-6000 support is indeed a support but anytime it can be broken and it would be always depending into its investors itself.
Im not also against with TA but this is also good for preference and its much better than have no chart to see at all and dont have any basis.

Well i just wanted to say that there are many forces that push price in various directions. They are daytraders, traders, hodlers, whales, huge investors accumulating and huge investors exiting market (and medium investors from 1$ bitcoin price who become huge invesotrs now having up to 20k bitcoins exiting market without knowledge and destroying it). In my opinion TA lovers - those who will defend 6k support are not strong enough on crypto market. And yea, we can have various predictions and my post was not aiming to  OP that he is not right. It was written to show different point of view and to warn about risk. Because if this support will be broken than price will accelerate immediately and stop around 4k.

When i see volume when price hits support its looks to me more like huge investor stops selling beafore 6k to dont break support to dont cause panic sell and dont destroy market. Then he w8 for recover - or pump a little and sell again. It looks more like that than like someone is buing all supply at 6k because its huge whale enter price.  Thats why i dont realy trust this support but i would love to see it help bitcoin recover.

Going back into this thread again after 2 weeks about these things been talking up here about support on technical analysis.We have seen theres a strong resistance on 6800 price but it did eventually being broke up by bulls and pushes up the price as of currently we are playing on 7300-7500 price as of this moment which is good. Neither we do say those fundamentals do works but the main factor i do believe which reverts the price is the current news into the market specially in the involvement of ETF and Big institutional companies will considerate crypto.

[Idrisu]

Hi,

I read a thread around last week to suggest a good time to buy bitcoin and hodl for long term, on that time bitcoin price was around USD 5,750-6,000. The thread posted fundamental analysis, here is the link : https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=4546167.0

Now I've found another analysis in technical made by experienced trader to say that currently Bitcoin is in reversal pattern mean that bearish will be ended soon and started for bullish. Here is the link for TA: https://www.newsbtc.com/2018/07/02/bitcoin-btc-price-watch-reversal-pattern-and-breakout/.

By above analysis for both fundamental and technical, I believe that now is the bottom price of bitcoin and ready to reverse strongly into bullish trend. This bottom price is really a strong support as tested 3 times as can be seen in the figure:



So we will see the green candle on crypto space onward, but as I posted on other thread to remind for risk management to be paid attention. For complete thread of risk management, here is the link: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=4546469.0

What do you think?

This is truth and you should treat those information and analysis as an addition to your trading information.  Bitcoin is going to reversal and you have to wait for some fundamental news and analysis before investing in.

[Slash61]

And it turns out a very strong price at $ 6000 it can be called as the support area and the cheapest in a few weeks backward, unfortunate if it does not take steps from yesterday because surprising news happened where Bitcoin rose almost at $ 7500 price with quite fast time, remains a question mark whether to return to the resistance area at a price of $ 6000 or the bull will continue to run very quickly.

[trupero_uno]

To know further movement of the price, I will collect the data and see latest situation of bitcoin circumstance. Hope the reversal pattern will apply globally for bitcoin duration and just need continuation of analysis from latest situation.

[hardtime]

Ah-- cool you drew some lines on a graph and are saying that this is the reason that we're going to reverse. I feel like we're reading tea leaves around here for godsake. People don't understand that you can't predict the markets, you can't do it with Technical NOR can you do it with fundamental analysis. The markets are going to move, and we're going to watch them do such thing.

To know further movement of the price, I will collect the data and see latest situation of bitcoin circumstance. Hope the reversal pattern will apply globally for bitcoin duration and just need continuation of analysis from latest situation.

I don't see what this is going to do for you. And even though I want Bitcoin to go up JUST as much as the next guy, I don't think collecting data is going to help in the least.

[pooya87]

the topic you linked for "fundamental analysis" doesn't really have any kind of important reason. they look more like guesses of the topic starter trying to come up with reasons which may not even be true in some cases like the 3rd reason he is mentioning.

as for "technical analysis" that one is better but i am not really a fan of TA when it comes to bitcoin.

now that some time has passed from the time you started this topic you can see it was true but one important thing to remember is that just because it came true it doesn't mean those reasons were true. and for your chart try using another source better than coinmarketcap! even using bitcoinwisdom charts is so much better and faster. if you want a real place to do TA and draw proper lines on the charts then use TradingView.com.

[wayaneka]

When i see market cap of Bitcoin still lower than others asset like stock of apple, Facebook, Gold etc so iam very bullish for Bitcoin in the long term. Now many big company interesting to use Bitcoin for payment and interesting to learn more to know advantages of blockchain technology so the demand of Bitcoin will increasing. Fundamental of Bitcoin is very strong because this is future of money and possible to go to 100 times more in the long term.

[tanzaholzmann]

I am increasingly passionate about bitcoin and I am happy to see bitcoin price movements on the market, I also hope this is the lowest price of bitcoin

[pawanjain]

Good way to use other threads into your post. Although the technical and fundamental analysis does not guarantee any benefits in the crypto space it can give us a perspective of what could possibly happen in the future. From the charts above it is possible that the bearish trend might end soon albeit no accurate dates. We still cqnnot predict how long the bearish trend will take to end.

[richcorner100]

Mostly all trader get difficultly to predict the highest price when bull market and also hard to predict bottomed price when bearish market. We have to use stop loss and trailling stop for every trade to minimize the risk from wrong prediction and to maximum the profit.