Bitcoin Speculation 2014

[TERA]

So when it drops to 16, will you buy this time or will be scared to death and miss the chance once again?

It depends. If it lasts longer than 10 seconds, I might have time to properly analyze the situation.

[chessnut]

My speculation:

Based on Technical Analysis and market psychology I believe bitcoin will crash and stabilize around 100-200$.
I think levels at 100-200 could be good levels for a speculative Risk-Reward investment long term.
Maybe we get 5000-10,000 $ in a couple of years if bitcoin manages to compete against 1000 of altcoins.

This is why i hate technical analysis of markets, but it's a necessary evil in certain scenarios suchas when i traded on FOREX, real world markets. At this very moment, this type of analysis does not pertain to bitcoin or any digital currency.


You are forgetting the social aspect that are behind bitcoin now, and that's people. It's a whole different playing field then 1 year ago when it was a bandits currency.


In summary: you can't apply a technical analysis when something changes as drastic as bitcoin, the adoption is still growing and becoming more widely accepted worldwide. Bitcoin is still very unknown to the masses.

I agree with this,
you can always apply technical analysis, especially when the asset is up to its neck with speculators. it is a bubble, and so it is subject to technical analysis.
I dont mean ponzi scheme, just bubble.

[TERA]

The days of $1000-1400 BTC are over. LTC will never see triple digits.

Just my guess, With such long transaction times for BTC why would the value go up when so many new coins with faster speeds and better technology are available?

BTC will sit around $800 for 2014.

What coins could take bitcoins place as #1?

Dogecoin

[gollum]

My speculation:

Based on Technical Analysis and market psychology I believe bitcoin will crash and stabilize around 100-200$.
I think levels at 100-200 could be good levels for a speculative Risk-Reward investment long term.
Maybe we get 5000-10,000 $ in a couple of years if bitcoin manages to compete against 1000 of altcoins.

This is why i hate technical analysis of markets, but it's a necessary evil in certain scenarios suchas when i traded on FOREX, real world markets. At this very moment, this type of analysis does not pertain to bitcoin or any digital currency.


You are forgetting the social aspect that are behind bitcoin now, and that's people. It's a whole different playing field then 1 year ago when it was a bandits currency.


In summary: you can't apply a technical analysis when something changes as drastic as bitcoin, the adoption is still growing and becoming more widely accepted worldwide. Bitcoin is still very unknown to the masses.

I agree with this,
you can always apply technical analysis, especially when the asset is up to its neck with speculators. it is a bubble, and so it is subject to technical analysis.
I dont mean ponzi scheme, just bubble.

Instead of TA lets call it statistics or econometrics, the more data you have the better chances you have of making a good prediction.
Because of the huge volatilty in bitcoin it is still very hard to make good predictions, but you can see patterns, and possible outcomes of those patterns.

We got for example an uptredning channel as you see in my simple chart where the price failed to go above the channel top, and is therfore falling back to the channel bottom (100-200). Another thing that support this prediction is double top in moving averages.

[Cyberlight]

8k by dec minimal.

[kisa2005]

The logarithmic chart is way overbought. We could use a healthy retracement, like this:

dare to lean out of the window and state that 50%+ of BTC owners are long-term holders who won't ever panic because they made BTC their life's project. So the price would never consistently go down more than 50% from the previous top (unless for illiquid blips where everyone jumps in to buy)... well, we had the "healthy retracement" during yesterday's 121 crash print I guess that's it people, now range-bound for a few months 2-3K towards year end.

and why do people call something a bubble at 11bn market cap? thats not the magnitude some globally famous bubble would have. 50x this would be bubbly, but then it would correspond to the new standard.... so, in summary, BTC is very dangerous in terms of shorting... could fall max 700 USD, but good chance of rise to 7000 USD in 1-2 years, exponential network effects - that's a very assymetric outcome. your choice how to position