Despite all the hacking attacks, FUD, negative articles etc. Bitcoin is

[vokain]

Come on, I did start with a 'What If'.

true, my apologies.

Bitcoin now seems to be entering a stage of high uncertainty, during a clear bear phase of the market. With this in mind, I am preparing myself to accept that perhaps my subconscious mind is smarter than my conscious mind. I am abandoning any attempts at deploying my TA 101 skills to turn a buck on Bitcoin, such as playing the rather obvious $380 support. I shall now be sitting right out on the sidelines either until Bitcoin proves it has overcome the recent technological uncertainties and most importantly, confirms that the bottom is in and the trend is reversing; or until some of my outrageously low buy-in levels have been triggered on Bitstamp due to everyone's worst fears coming to be realised, and Bitcoin finding itself standing at death's door.

Neuroscientifically speaking, your subconscious will come up with a solution before your conscious one will finish thinking. You are probably correct in trusting your intuition. At the same time though, your subconscious is a reflection of the primal, core emotional being. It understands concepts in symbols. I don't know what your experience and history with Bitcoin is (are?) though, or investing in general. Some traders by trade that have entered Bitcoin see it markedly different than "investors" do. Sometimes they miss a few fundamental ideas such as the power of anti-fragility, they emphasize on speculation and not the philosophy. that's perfectly fine, we need that. investors tend to disregard short-term non-black swan events. You just have to know thyself.

• I miss the bottom and some good volatile trading opportunities in between, but get in as trend reversal is confirmed (most likely)
• Panic and fear overcomes market and Bitcoin crashes to the point of death or novelty posterity significance, in which case I lose all my chips (entirely possible)
• Panic and fear overcomes market and Bitcoin crashes to the point of death, at which point big Wall St money swoops in and buys it up at pennies on the dollar, in which case I cash in big time...providing my buy-ins are allowed to be triggered by the corrupt system, and/or Bitstamp doesn't go the same way as many Bitcoin exchanges before it (stranger things will have happened)

or

• panic and fear overcome the market when bulls capitulate, waiting bears buy in, and you get your first point

they say bitcoin is a good investment because it has binary outcomes, yeah, but your second two points don't make sense to me. Panic and fear do not cause Bitcoin to "crash to death". A fundamental and irreparable point of failure will cause bitcoin to "crash to death". We don't have that. The bears that are waiting, and trust me, they're there on the sidelines and will be the source of the impetus up when the trend is confirmed to reverse, will prevent those last two scenarios. so dreary mat!!

[MatTheCat]

they say bitcoin is a good investment because it has binary outcomes, yeah, but your second two points don't make sense to me. Panic and fear do not cause Bitcoin to "crash to death". A fundamental and irreparable point of failure will cause bitcoin to "crash to death". We don't have that. The bears that are waiting, and trust me, they're there on the sidelines and will be the source of the impetus up when the trend is confirmed to reverse, will prevent those last two scenarios. so dreary mat!!

On the second December crash, I was assured by several Bitcoin Nutters that my $400 - $500 buy ins could never happen, as there were far too many people queueing up to buy in at price levels way above this. I was also assured that even $500-$600 was an out and out impossibility. Unfortunately for me, I moved my buy-ins up to the $500 - $600 range, and then made the mistake of babysitting my buy-ins on the bounce from $380, totally losing my nerve at a shaky pennant at $490. This caused much butthurt resulting in me sitting out at least half of a rather obvious 'market memory' recovery in complete disgust (I hate losing). Much regrets, won't ever be repeating this action.

Yeah...all the bears are waiting to buy-in.....and how many of them have reported being frozen with fear during the $100 BTC-e/Bitfinex crash and sitting the whole thing out? Quite a few from what I have seen. We all dream about $300, $200, $100 and double digit coins, but when/if the moment of truth approaches, then I will guarantee that mass psychology will change.....especially if the crash is accompanied by FUD asserting the the Bitcoin protocol has been hacked/broken.

I take a lot from my dreams and other subconscious pangs that I get. I never however, take anything 'literal' from them. If I dream about Bitcoin going down under $100, which I have done several times way back in December, I don't assume that my subconscious knows that Bitcoin is going under $100, but rather take it as a symbolic indicator. Last thing I will say is that nearly all my most predictive Bitcoin manoeuvres have come from the subconscious mind....the annoying thing is, is that I nearly always need to be standing on the wrong side of the trade to get them in the first place and of course, I can't rely on getting them at all. Often I wake up from my sleep with dreams when the Bitcoin market is moving, but just as often I don't.

[Lloydie]

they say bitcoin is a good investment because it has binary outcomes, yeah, but your second two points don't make sense to me. Panic and fear do not cause Bitcoin to "crash to death". A fundamental and irreparable point of failure will cause bitcoin to "crash to death". We don't have that. The bears that are waiting, and trust me, they're there on the sidelines and will be the source of the impetus up when the trend is confirmed to reverse, will prevent those last two scenarios. so dreary mat!!

On the second December crash, I was assured by several Bitcoin Nutters that my $400 - $500 buy ins could never happen, as there were far too many people queueing up to buy in at price levels way above this. I was also assured that even $500-$600 was an out and out impossibility. Unfortunately for me, I moved my buy-ins up to the $500 - $600 range, and then made the mistake of babysitting my buy-ins on the bounce from $380, totally losing my nerve at a shaky pennant at $490. This caused much butthurt resulting in me sitting out at least half of a rather obvious 'market memory' recovery in complete disgust (I hate losing). Much regrets, won't ever be repeating this action.

Yeah...all the bears are waiting to buy-in.....and how many of them have reported being frozen with fear during the $100 BTC-e/Bitfinex crash and sitting the whole thing out? Quite a few from what I have seen. We all dream about $300, $200, $100 and double digit coins, but when/if the moment of truth approaches, then I will guarantee that mass psychology will change.....especially if the crash is accompanied by FUD asserting the the Bitcoin protocol has been hacked/broken.

I take a lot from my dreams and other subconscious pangs that I get. I never however, take anything 'literal' from them. If I dream about Bitcoin going down under $100, which I have done several times way back in December, I don't assume that my subconscious knows that Bitcoin is going under $100, but rather take it as a symbolic indicator. Last thing I will say is that nearly all my most predictive Bitcoin manoeuvres have come from the subconscious mind....the annoying thing is, is that I nearly always need to be standing on the wrong side of the trade to get them in the first place and of course, I can't rely on getting them at all. Often I wake up from my sleep with dreams when the Bitcoin market is moving, but just as often I don't.

Mat, now what did we tell you about trading? 

It'll do your head in and one year from now, you'll be poorer than the rest of us hodlers.

[MatTheCat]

Mat, now what did we tell you about trading?  

It'll do your head in and one year from now, you'll be poorer than the rest of us hodlers.

I have stopped trading.

a) It really was doing my head in

b) I no longer trust Bitfinex.

c) Bitstamp just aint a traders platform and my brief trial of setting stop-losses, limit sell orders etc with QT Trader resulted in quite a horrifying experience (it didnt fkn work)

I am still looking for a cracking long position opportunity and do have some buy-in tranches so low, that I would be embarrassed to reveal them. Most likely, I will be buying in well after low has been hit and trend reversal has been confirmed...but just maybe, I will hit the jackpot or perhaps even lose all my chips if events pan out anything like the Travelling, Singing, Dancing, MedicineMan, BitcoinSteve reckons they will.

[Lloydie]

Mat, that just makes you a bottom picker no? 

[MatTheCat]

Mat, that just makes you a bottom picker no? 

Not really. If I was a bottom picker, I would be aiming for around $380 range.

This is a wild throw of the dice that will only be triggered should the current FUD affecting Bitcoin really come to a head.

[billyjoeallen]

I actually think it highly likely that an altcoin funded and backed by a major tech or financial corporation is in development. (A googlecoin or applecoin  fif you will.)  Spreading FUD on bitcoin might be a good play for such.

Not that I think THOSE guys are necessarily working on one, but I think an organization which would have assets to guarantee a value of their coin would make for a popular coin for newbs and the like.  Oh and hey, it and only it are accepted at their online store too. . .

There would be an online exchange trading bitcoin for Googlecoin within 48 hours of release.  If heavy hitters attempt to co-op the protocol, it would be a strong sign that we are winning.

[Lloydie]

I actually think it highly likely that an altcoin funded and backed by a major tech or financial corporation is in development. (A googlecoin or applecoin  fif you will.)  Spreading FUD on bitcoin might be a good play for such.

Not that I think THOSE guys are necessarily working on one, but I think an organization which would have assets to guarantee a value of their coin would make for a popular coin for newbs and the like.  Oh and hey, it and only it are accepted at their online store too. . .

There would be an online exchange trading bitcoin for Googlecoin within 48 hours of release.  If heavy hitters attempt to co-op the protocol, it would be a strong sign that we are winning.

The above is spot on.  As the marketshare of bitcoin is so small, googlecoin or some other will canibailise fiat without impacting on bitcoin at all.  Due to the cluster effect, bitcoin's value would likely skyrocket.

[chessnut]

I actually think it highly likely that an altcoin funded and backed by a major tech or financial corporation is in development. (A googlecoin or applecoin  fif you will.)  Spreading FUD on bitcoin might be a good play for such.

Not that I think THOSE guys are necessarily working on one, but I think an organization which would have assets to guarantee a value of their coin would make for a popular coin for newbs and the like.  Oh and hey, it and only it are accepted at their online store too. . .

There would be an online exchange trading bitcoin for Googlecoin within 48 hours of release.  If heavy hitters attempt to co-op the protocol, it would be a strong sign that we are winning.

google coin wouldnt work for one of three reasons;
- the protocol will be in some way centralised (deemed useless and corrupt in the long run)
- a decentralised google coin would be out of googles control - google is not prepared to take responsibility for their coins on the silk road.
- it would still take many months or years for the mining hardware to approach the level that bitcoin has achieved.

[stylin]

I actually think it highly likely that an altcoin funded and backed by a major tech or financial corporation is in development. (A googlecoin or applecoin  fif you will.)  Spreading FUD on bitcoin might be a good play for such.

Not that I think THOSE guys are necessarily working on one, but I think an organization which would have assets to guarantee a value of their coin would make for a popular coin for newbs and the like.  Oh and hey, it and only it are accepted at their online store too. . .

THIS

It's easy to believe this. However I actually think that this scenario will backfire, and play out extremely well for Bitcoin. Think about a Googlecoin... people are going to ask why, what's the purpose? Why do we need it and what's it based off of? Then they will discover Bitcoin and the Bitcoin community which at that point will be hating on Googlecoin... Many will be curious and ask questions and it will lead them to Bitcoin in the end

[vokain]

I actually think it highly likely that an altcoin funded and backed by a major tech or financial corporation is in development. (A googlecoin or applecoin  fif you will.)  Spreading FUD on bitcoin might be a good play for such.

Not that I think THOSE guys are necessarily working on one, but I think an organization which would have assets to guarantee a value of their coin would make for a popular coin for newbs and the like.  Oh and hey, it and only it are accepted at their online store too. . .

THIS

It's easy to believe this. However I actually think that this scenario will backfire, and play out extremely well for Bitcoin. Think about a Googlecoin... people are going to ask why, what's the purpose? Why do we need it and what's it based off of? Then they will discover Bitcoin and the Bitcoin community which at that point will be hating on Googlecoin... Many will be curious and ask questions and it will lead them to Bitcoin in the end

http://www.zerohedge.com/contributed/2014-02-09/googlecoin-coming

[Lloydie]

I actually think it highly likely that an altcoin funded and backed by a major tech or financial corporation is in development. (A googlecoin or applecoin  fif you will.)  Spreading FUD on bitcoin might be a good play for such.

Not that I think THOSE guys are necessarily working on one, but I think an organization which would have assets to guarantee a value of their coin would make for a popular coin for newbs and the like.  Oh and hey, it and only it are accepted at their online store too. . .

THIS

It's easy to believe this. However I actually think that this scenario will backfire, and play out extremely well for Bitcoin. Think about a Googlecoin... people are going to ask why, what's the purpose? Why do we need it and what's it based off of? Then they will discover Bitcoin and the Bitcoin community which at that point will be hating on Googlecoin... Many will be curious and ask questions and it will lead them to Bitcoin in the end

The above is correct.  I hope Googlecoin, JPMorganCoin, RussianCentralBankCoin, PaypalCoin all join the party.  Cryptos will go nuts. Bitcoin's enemy is not these people.  Bitcoin's real enemy is apathy and ignorance.

[thelema93]

The Big Boys always win. If they can't win with Bitcoin, they will win with whatever replaces it in pole position of the crypto-currency race, and that coin won't be called JPMorgan Coin, Zionistcoin, or 666coin.

Oh OK, thanks for that mat, what was that? "me being me" LOL!

On a serious note: bitcoin is - what it always has been - completely un-destroyable, a de-centralised resiliant money that cannot be taken down however hard those tossers at JP Morgan or whoever try. They cannot do it. And I think they will eventually give up on trying to take it down and they'll just try to tax it instead or something. Why do they need to spend loads of money trying to kill it anyway, when everyone still needs fiat currency. Germany has already embraced it and decided to try and tax it. Others will allow follow suit soon.

[sraosha]

b) I no longer trust Bitfinex.

Since I trust your opinion more than most other forum mebers here since quite a time, could you elaborate why Bitfinex is on your personal blacklist?

I have been using BTC-e and Bitstamp and then a few weeks ago switched to Bitfinex. I am still occasionally using Bitstamp (to wire money to) and BTC-e (to trade alt coins), but found Bitfinex works better. I had an issue with not being able to  use my full funds for orders, but this was resolved in half a day and they also replied swiftly to my email.

Of course Bitfinex is not perfect and they had a major problem with one of their partners, but that seems to be resolved and they appear to be very motivated and also have investors behind them.

So, are you talking about some systemic issues affecting their owners/team/financiers (a la MtGox) or are you just not happy with their software and platform design? Yes, the design could be better and there should be more documentation…

Thank you,

[sraosha]

A good recipe to not be "frozen in fear" - as you will know - is to just gamble with a small percentage of your BTC funds. I am using about 25% to trade and catch lows to buy more.

During the flash crash I had limit orders on Bitfinex for 412 and 534 (not pessimistic enough). They got filled and I watched without trying to mess around. Still my stomach cramped seeing it going down to 100 but I was perfectly sure that BTC was not broken totally, that my main BTC funds were in cold storage and that I just baught significantly lower than I had sold before.

So, point here is that one has to first rick oneself and chain oneself in a way so that monkey-mind has little chance to take over once the action really begins.
A lesson that I learned from previous losses, which were apparently necessary to punch this lesson into the deepest depth of my body consciousness:-)

[Cyberlight]

Re: Despite all the hacking attacks, FUD, negative articles etc. Bitcoin is


DOOOMEEEDDD

Not confirmed.

[sraosha]

I'm genuinely shocked by the sheer number of posters here who don't understand the one fundamental reason for bitcoin's success: decentralization. It's the whole goddamn point. Hence, there will be no applecoin, googlecoin, microsoftcoin, nintendocoin, etc. You might as well go to Disneyland and buy Mickey Mouse dollars.

An Alt-currency is only as decentralised as it is evenly distributed, which in Bitcoin's case, is not at all, but perhaps the problem with Bitcoin in the eyes of the financial establishment is that too many 'wrong types' are owning it.

What if what is going on now cumulates in a massive crash in Bitcoin price, and Bitcoin is facing annihilation, causing much panic sending Bitcoin to double and even single digits. Would this be the point where Wall St climbs on board, or is this the point where Bitcoin is killed off for good, and replaced by another 'more secure' pre-mined and/or pre bought out 'decentralised' crypto of Wall Streets choosing.

The Big Boys always win. If they can't win with Bitcoin, they will win with whatever replaces it in pole position of the crypto-currency race, and that coin won't be called JPMorgan Coin, Zionistcoin, or 666coin.

…your post convinced me to now place my lowest order at 8 $ /BTC. If this gets hit I am confident that the price of BTC will not stay below 100 for a long time. Maybe minutes. Maybe hours.

I have no doubts still about the Bitcoin protocol being flawed or broken or otherwise being taken over. Such a crash will (again) mainly be caused by FUD, not by the more 'real' negative news coming from government regulation, etc.

One thing I learned is that speed & shock & confusion are the factors that cause really low prices.

[MatTheCat]

could you elaborate why Bitfinex is on your personal blacklist?

Partially because I am very suspicious of the bots/entities that operate on Bitfinex. Since they stopped allowing orders to be routed through Bitstamp, I have seen some of my stop losses called in very suspicious circumstances........otherwise known as 'blatantly fkn farmed'.

But above all else, irrational fear, instinct, and recurring spooked out dreams about the exchange. I don't expect none of that to convince anyone else to avoid Bitfinex and neither it should. Had I stuck around on Bitfinex, I would have likely had a few more cracking short trades under my belt, but having seen the difference that a day can make in Bitcoin, I am sticking with what ever arrangements allows me to sleep the best.

I go to sleep one day, assured that the protocol 'double spend' attack is something affecting just Gox because of their system of not wating on blockchains confirmations, an then I wake up the next and find that even Bitstamp is affected, Bitstamp where I still have 10K USD. Things can move very suddenly in Bitcoin. It is like the stock market on steroids and on fast play.

[traderCJ]

could you elaborate why Bitfinex is on your personal blacklist?

Partially because I am very suspicious of the bots/entities that operate on Bitfinex. Since they stopped allowing orders to be routed through Bitstamp, I have seen some of my stop losses called in very suspicious circumstances........otherwise known as 'blatantly fkn farmed'.

But above all else, irrational fear, instinct, and recurring spooked out dreams about the exchange. I don't expect none of that to convince anyone else to avoid Bitfinex and neither it should. Had I stuck around on Bitfinex, I would have likely had a few more cracking short trades under my belt, but having seen the difference that a day can make in Bitcoin, I am sticking with what ever arrangements allows me to sleep the best.

I go to sleep one day, assured that the protocol 'double spend' attack is something affecting just Gox because of their system of not wating on blockchains confirmations, an then I wake up the next and find that even Bitstamp is affected, Bitstamp where I still have 10K USD. Things can move very suddenly in Bitcoin. It is like the stock market on steroids and on fast play.

We place an incredible amount of faith in the competence and integrity of those who maintain the Bitcoin protocol and all other related sites, ranging from blockchain.info, to all the exchanges.  This presumption of competence and integrity is baked into the price.  When these assumptions are violated, watch the price drop like a fucking stone.  Why?  Several reasons.  The price is still driven primarily by speculators like us.  Also, Bitcoin is backed by nothing.  This could be a strength.  It could be a weakness.  But given this reality, it really has no minimum price .. it has no breakup value.  It has no army behind it.  No government.  It's value is purely driven by psychology.  Time will tell whether this is enough to function as a currency, let alone a store of wealth.  I give cryptos in general a 50/50 shot.  Bitcoin?  Even less.  But it's still worth a gamble.

[honorem]

Bitcoin wil stay alive!!!!!! "