But you always call people who held that long "lucky". Now, by your own admission, it seems like it would take a bit more than "luck".
I subscribed to a different 'emotional narrative' back then. It was still 'fight the bankers' (and get rich doing it) but I was a gold bug and invested a significant amount of capital into PM's through late 2010. I heard about Bitcoin in early 2011, when the Bitcoins were still in raging form, due to finding out they were needed to purchase shit on Silk Road. At the time, I found the whole Bitcoin concept utterly fascinating and was indeed a foaming at the mouth advocate of their huge potential. I can remember musing with friends that if Bitcoins really started to take off, what would there be to stop it it hitting $1000!?
However, I never really did invest in Bitcoin in these days. Because of my emotional attachment to the whole defeat hyperinflation with precious metals narrative any capital that I set aside for investment purposes went into PM's. At the time, it seemed silly to do anything else. Also, late 2010 was the first time in my life where I found myself with spare capital to invest thanks to a career change.
The £500 'wildcard' Bitcoin investment that I did make, all ended up turning into Silk Road coins.
Had Gold went to $5000 or whatever like all the gold-bug bloggers were telling me it was sure to do, I would have held. Back then, i was a precious metals HODLER. In 2011 however, both Silver and Gold hit their ATHs substantially short of what the Gold Bugs were forecasting, but because of my emotional attachment to the whole gold bug narrative, I never came to actually acknowledge this until perhaps October/November 2012. By late 2012, Bitcoin was about $10-$15 or something, which was way way more than I was used to paying. I figured,
that because Bitcoin's value was driven by Silk Road demand, that the price would surge in the period approaching the festive season but retreat in January, just like it did in 2011. When it did, then I was going to make a £1000 investment. Of course, we all knew what happened next. As Bitcoin surged up past $36, I warned my brother who became suddenly interested due to the spike in media attention, to keep well away from this dangerous bubble!
I never bought and held single digit Bitcoin because:
- I was emotionally subscribed to a different narrative/paradigm
- I understood nothing about investing
I never bought and held double digit Bitcoin because:
- I assumed that I understood the forces behind the asset when I actually knew jack-shit
- I understood nothing about investing
Many people here did buy and hold Bitcoin in double and single digits because:
- They were emotionally invested in the Bitcoin narrative and fight the bankers paradigm
- They assume they understand the forces behind the market although they know jack shit
- They understood nothing about investing
But there is no success like failure as they say, and one can only learn from his mistakes and learned from my mistakes I have. I suspect however, that there are many around here who are yet to be taught the same lessons that getting into the precious metal markets at the 11th hour and intellectually subscribing to a big pile of emotionally appealing bullshit, taught me.
EDIT: Although I liquidated all my 'electronic silver' at a small loss, I still have all the physical bullion coins that I bought in 2010, which is worth on aggregate about 15% less now than what I paid for it (silver has been the bad one, gold down about 10%). However, I am still pleased that I have it. I see it as the ultimate insurance policy, even if its prices drops to half of what it is now. Owning Bitcoins however through a Bitcoin bear market or through periods of economic uncertainty brings me zero comfort or assurance that if things all go tits up, at least I have my 'lines of computer code'.
Poll
