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Author Topic: Former Bear Turned Bull  (Read 1176 times)
bitcola
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October 01, 2011, 02:01:29 PM
 #1

I used to be bearish on bitcoins.

Too many hoarders.

Too many geeks who don't have any idea how to promote it properly.

Too many misconceptions by Joe Public of the benefits.

etc.

etc.


But you know what? It's still here. The market hasn't collapsed. The currency is working according to demand and supply just like any other currency/commodity.

The price has now settled down nicely. I'm not a technical analysis man except on very short timescales on highly liquid things (which bitcoin is not, yet) but even technical analysts would see that it is at a key support level.

Fundamentally (not technically), I think this currency will slowly go up. It's a long term play, nobody is going to get rich quick. But I think at this time when the economy is going down the pan, gold/silver are not invulnerable then I think bitcoins are a great place to put some money.

I've bought 15 bitcoins. If and when my hunches are confirmed and it starts to rise I plan to pyramid and buy more.


Yes, there are still naysayers, but I realised this. It doesn't matter what naysayers say, the fundamentals will play out, regardless. As bitcoin climbs and the public are forced to see the success of it, then demand for it will increase and the price will go up.

The only thing that could stand in its way is government legislation. But I think bitcoin is a bit like drugs. You can outlaw them but you can't stop people using them.
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NamelessOne
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October 01, 2011, 02:05:30 PM
 #2

I've always been a bull myself, but a careful bull, I think what you said here sounds good. Like many others are also beginning to see, the summer was probably a months long correction, and the rise (be it slow or filled with burst and rallies) may be upon us.
bitcola
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October 01, 2011, 02:08:39 PM
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Something else worth considering is that bitcoins outperformed the stock market and gold and silver and some currencies over the last month to three months.

The lack of correlation is a great asset though I would expect it to negatively correlate when people start to recognise it as a true safe haven currency.
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October 01, 2011, 04:20:53 PM
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...bitcoins outperformed the stock market and gold and silver and some currencies over the last month to three months.

Wha?
Cluster2k
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October 01, 2011, 05:51:35 PM
 #5

Something else worth considering is that bitcoins outperformed the stock market and gold and silver and some currencies over the last month to three months.

Two months ago bitcoins were worth over $10.  Four months ago they spiked to $30.  You do know bitcoins are worth $5 today, right?  I missed the part where any major stock market has fallen over 50% in the last couple of months.

The lack of correlation is a great asset though I would expect it to negatively correlate when people start to recognise it as a true safe haven currency.

How many bitcoins have you really bought?  Making statements along the lines of the public realising that bitcoins are a true safe haven currency is laughable.  Not even a super bitcoin bull would believe that.

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bitcola
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October 01, 2011, 08:00:17 PM
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Something else worth considering is that bitcoins outperformed the stock market and gold and silver and some currencies over the last month to three months.

Two months ago bitcoins were worth over $10.  Four months ago they spiked to $30.  You do know bitcoins are worth $5 today, right?  I missed the part where any major stock market has fallen over 50% in the last couple of months.

The lack of correlation is a great asset though I would expect it to negatively correlate when people start to recognise it as a true safe haven currency.

How many bitcoins have you really bought?  Making statements along the lines of the public realising that bitcoins are a true safe haven currency is laughable.  Not even a super bitcoin bull would believe that.

Notice how I put together 3 different tradeable instruments and 2 different time horizons. I was trying to make a blanket statement for brevity without getting into specifics. For example, over the last month, bitcoin has outperformed stock market and PMs.

Not sure why my bitcoin purchases matter at all, why do you ask? I never said that people think it is a safe haven asset now, I predicted it for the future.
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October 02, 2011, 11:38:57 AM
 #7

Bitcoin is clearly not a safe haven, but the way things are shaping up I do not think that there is any single instrument that could be considered completely safe. Bitcoin helps me to stay agile, to be fully invested in either a bullish or bearish view is most likely a losing proposition, and not for the reason you might think. I have learned that adopting such a polarized view causes mistakes of perception that make you see opportunities where there are none, and to miss opportunities where they are.
+1

If Bitcoin survives, from legal and technical perspectives, I think it's eventually going to be safer than many other instruments.

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Technomage
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October 02, 2011, 11:46:20 AM
 #8

Not sure why my bitcoin purchases matter at all, why do you ask? I never said that people think it is a safe haven asset now, I predicted it for the future.
Some people in this forum have a tendency to not read the whole sentence and then pick on it.

As for the issue at hand, I predict the same thing for the future of Bitcoin, as long it stays legal, reliable and functional.

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